On the campaign trail

I have been back for about two weeks now and perhaps it is time to venture in giving observations and impressions on the electoral situation. The more appropriate since tomorrow Rosales hits his first mass rally test in Caracas: La Avalancha. So, in case I need to insert foot in mouth, I might describe first my preliminary electoral impressions, in no particular order of importance.

Chavez clueless?

The most amazing development that one can see is that the Chavez campaign is not ready. Maybe it was ready for some campaign that involved a divided opposition. Maybe it thought that Chavez advantage in polls would remain constant. The fact of the matter is that for the first time in 8 years it is the opposition that sets the agenda. It is so bad that, for example recently, Chavez talked about education, AFTER Rosales did it the previous day. And that is not the first time that Chavez reacts to a major Rosales proposal.

It is now obvious that Chavez has run out of promises. Indeed, after 8 years in office, two US presidential terms I must remind folks, any office holder is somewhat worn out. It seems that Chavez is more worn out than what we thought. Eight years of notable inefficiency and corruption stop him from wild demagogic promises. He made them 8 years ago, he did not fulfill most of them, and he would look ridiculous repeating them. "Repeat" is the key word here, as there is little bit left to promise.

So what does Chavez promises? A recall election called by himself in three years. A one party system for the government (and the country?). That he will not become a dictator. That he will trash Bush at the UN. That private schools will also have a “Bolivarian” pensum. Yeah, right, all of these will make trains run on time.

And speaking of trains, even the vaunted list of public works to be inaugurated is not on time, and when sort of on time it is rapidly dismissed. For example the hospital inaugurated in Anzoategui this week was promptly denounced by Rosales as incomplete, by half, while anti Tarek Saab protesters hit the streets. Notable since Tarek is all but the appointed Chavez governor for the state and people where booing Tarek while, supposedly, applauding Chavez. How long can this schizophrenia hold among chavistas? At any rate, it seems that the Anzoategui visit did not bring any points to Chavez.

But he keeps making errors. For example yesterday as the FITCAR expo was inaugurated in Caracas, he forced Juan Arango, our best known football player and the paid image of the expo to take the stand for a speech. As the poor guy, ill at ease, tried to explain that he was not planning to speak, Chavez himself blurted “Asi es que se gobierna”, (this how one rules) the stupid slogan of the revolutionaries that is chanted went Chavez takes a measure against an enemy of the revolution (rather than an actual positive ruling step). Amazingly Chavez was laughing, not realizing how much of a small time fascist he was showing himself to be by forcing Arango to make a fool of himself. This has been perhaps, with the UN speech, the best image of how detached from reality Chavez has become.

Because Chavez now feels that he is unreachable, and that he does not need to be reached which is worse. And thus the errors. For example there is nothing more pathetic than watch Chavez on tour. Claiming that half the world wants to kill him, he rides on top of truck just as a Carnival Queen. No more “press the flesh” moments! Unless duly staged. The only other variation to the caravans are set mini Alo Presidente with a picked crowd that cheers without even listening to whatever Chavez says. Even a wit noticed that everyone around the high platform trucks was wearing red shirts and that there almost no women around. How much more staged it can get?

Truly, there is no real organization in the campaign, no marketing, an almost sad, spiritless, and already using the last dirty campaigning tactics, still two months from the vote! I suppose that Chavez thinks that he can do it alone. We will see.

A surprising Rosales

The surprise of course is Rosales. By early September he had already managed to coalesce the opposition around him. Which few would have guessed. Now Petkoff represents him overseas in important meetings and the Primero Justicia staff is busy running large chunks of the campaign.
But Rosales has become a dazzling campaigner even if not a particularly gifted orator. Nothing new here since few Venezuelan presidents had been orators, gifted or not. There were few things as embarrassing than to sit through a CAP or Leoni campaign speech. Or as boring as a Caldera or Lusinchi speech. Chavez was the first one to electrify the crowds, but after 8 years he seems to lack some of the voltage. So we are seeing the comeback of the walking candidate and Rosales as an ex-AD sure knows how to manage this type of campaign. And it seems to work: there is a connection been established between Rosales and the poorer sectors that need to be reached. They might not be about to vote for him yet but it is unquestionable that they are showing up more and more to Rosales rallies and too many of them are now cheering!

And he goes everywhere, even to La Paragua, even on the foot steps of Chavez in Anzoategui where few would have thought he would go and campaign hard. Indeed, the Anzoategui move today was yet another hit. It was assumed that the Eastern part of the country would be a free gift to Chavez and that Rosales would win on Zulia, Caracas and the Andes alone. At best a quick tour in the East hoping that PJ would do the rest. Well, lifting a page from the Clinton book, it seems that Rosales will campaign in every state, will counter any charge from chavismo. While we wonder at this point if Chavez will campaign in every state. He certainly will do but we do not feel the heat there.

We do not have good polls yet. No measure for the second part of September is out, when the Rosales effect could start to appear. He was around 20% early September while Chavez was already down to 50%. But again, in a post-Tascon List country, pools are rather unreliable. At any rate, rumors, and chavistas faces in high places, say that Chavez spread is thinning fast (no more than 15% by mid September?). And tomorrow, in Caracas, we will have the first large crowd test of Rosales. Even more, in a post referendum funk of the opposition, we will see if Rosales can bring back Caracas to the streets. We’ll wait eagerly.