Polling frenzy and, military censorship?

Two little items to close for the day.

Polls galore

A new poll came out giving yet again a Zogby like advantage to Chavez. That poll, from the Evans group, largely identified with Chavez since 2004, is paid by PDVSA. No, I will not enter the fray, even as some readers urge me. However since more than once prodded me to and three so far have sent me the latest Keller poll, I suppose that I should at least acknowledge their effort and give my opinion on the respect.

The Evans poll. My question is simple: why does PDVSA pays for polling as to the future of Chavez? It is not that I am opposed to a government paying for polls, it is a tool for administration, but that is not PDVSA business. PDVSA has to pay for polls on oil, on energy options, and such, not on the political career of any Venezuelan. When I read the Evans guy defending this I lose any respect and any desire to investigate the foundations of that poll: it stinks from afar.

The Keller poll. Finally I received what is indeed only a study on how to classify the Venezuelan electorate, out of which one may, or may not, decide how Venezuela will vote. On my own with my excel chart I pretty much reached the same result as Keller, at much lesser expense: Keller sees October 15 a “potential” for Chavez of 52% and for Rosales 48%. I calculated 53% to 46%.

What is interesting is how Keller is splitting up the electorate. He finds that 22% of the electorate can be considered as hard core chavistas, that is, those that would not mind at all communism to be set up in Venezuela with Chavez as the ruler for life. 30% are chavistas who have some misgivings about such a future. Opposition light, so to speak, are a 21% bunch and the hard core opposition, surprise, is 27%, even bigger now than the hard core chavista! What could this mean? The radicalization of the regime is turning off quite a few chavista. Maybe not enough yet to have them go against Chavez, but perhaps enough to make now abstention an option that might affect more Chavez result than Rosales one. That is, abstention numbers in voting intention might be remaining the same but they are not reflecting a movement of many towards opposition voting while they are replaced by disaffected chavistas. Is this the explanation of chavista recent electoral strategy? To radicalize while distributing presents in the hope to stem the flow toward abstention?

The real novelty of the poll is in fact that the “hard core” chavista is shrinking continuously over the last few months: from a 30-35% at the start of summer we are now down to 22%. That is a nightmare for any political movement.

The Nazional guard blocks shifting of TV antennas

Apparently to transmit live from where the news takes place, TV networks must go up to the mountains in Caracas to shift the orientation of their receiving microwave antennas. Well, this afternoon some Nazional guard underling decided that from now on, they would have to request 24 HOURS in advance notice to be allowed to go inside the place and shift their antennas. In other words, that was the end of live transmission from outside Caracas.

Needless to say that the outrage was such that a few hours later the commander of the area said that no, that it was just a matter of more “control” for security, but that TV crews would be able to come and go as needed. All speculations are allowed as to what this incident really means. Overzealous “rojo, rojito” sergeant majors? A trial balloon to see the reaction speed of networks “just in case”?