Tuesday, November 04, 2008

My US predictions

[updated]OK, I figured out that if I am predicting Venezuela I should also expose myself to ridicule by also predicting the US. So there is is at Real Clear Politics.

I have assumed what I think it is the best McCain scenario and as far as I am concerned, Bradley effect or not, he cannot make it. I give Obama a solid 261 electoral seats with 48 leaning his way. He only needs 270 and thus he needs only Pennsylvania (21)or Virginia (13) to nail it. The two big ones that McCain needs to bag before he takes the ones leaning Obama are Florida (27) and North Carolina (15), more damaging for him to lose than if Obama loses Pennsylvania or Virginia.

I think Florida will go McCain because Cubans there are the only Latino group that will not follow Obama. So really McCain needs to nail North Carolina but the awful negative campaign of Dole there might cost him the state and end the story. Only Jesse Helms could get away with dirt in North Carolina. So Tuesday night those are the four states to watch: if Obama picks up Florida or North Carolina it is over for MacCain, you can go to bed early. If McCain keeps them and manages Pennsylvania and/or Virginia then it might not be a long night but you need to wait at least until Ohio and Missouri come out for Obama to make sure he wins.


I have decided to put up the map because Real Clear Politics did not save it as expected. I also decided that I should put Indiana as leaning for Obama and not a sure thing. It really does not change much, Obama should win anyway as McCain has too many leaning compared to Obama. That is, if McCain wins it will be a replay of the Gore bush 2000 fiasco.

-The end-

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