Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Chavez insecurities about his strength

Since November 23 Chavez is slowly doing a seven veils dance where he slowly but surely reveals to us his insecurities about his support, and his future. So far:

Monday 24. Press conference (monologue?) to foreign media (Venezuelan media has been mostly banned for years). No one had ever seen someone needing more than 4 hours to explain why he won.

Following days. Chavez goes from proclamation to swearing in of his elected appointees. No one is too low for him. Each time we get a cadena to explain to us why he won on the 23. The Guiness book should be informed for a record setting of sorts.

Reelection from the people. Suddenly Chavez announces that the PSUV should discuss whether he should be reelected in 2012 through an amendment. Forgotten are the words to Patricia Janiot as him not considering a reelection move for the time being. Apparently there has been a clamor from chavismo, that we must have missed, that reelecting Chavez in 2012 is more important than, say, solve the crime wave that threatens all of us.

The revolution needs me. Chavez announces to us that the revolution will not survive without his leadership and thus the reelection amedement is really an urgent need. He gives himself to the cause instead of going to take care of his grand kids in 2012. We, the critics, are amazed that Chavez does not recognize that these words betray not only the weakness of his pseudo revolution but that he admits he lost on the 23. O retreated enough that he cannot ensure that his successor in 2013 will be his creature. Same difference.

Reelection from the assembly. Even though the new amedement is a violation of the constitution, at least having it petitioned by the PSUV rank and file would have given it a slight hue of legitimacy. But "discovering" that it would take a while to collect and verify the signatures Chavez decides that the PSUV spoke anyway and that National Assembly should go ahead and vote for the amendment. Considering that he still controls 90% of it, the result is a foregone conclusion.

Reelection now. A CNE rector, Vicente Diaz, points out that logistically a referendum by February 2009 is unlikely. He also points out that the constitutionality of the amendment must be tested before the CNE considers any measure as to prepare for the vote. Chavez furious accuses him of being immoral and asks for his resignation. Apparently Diaz works for the Empire while the other 4 fine rectors are of course fully impartial becasue two of them already went out to support the amendment. They are not immoral, just amoral.

The seventh veil? What does Chavez know that we do not know? By now the only question left is why the extraordinary haste of Chavez in having approved something that could be voted perfectly well, say, May 2009. After all, it only needs to be voted by December 2011 before people start registering for 2012 presidential elections. There is absolutely no urgency whatsoever on a constitutional level. For example the crime wave or the high inflation would to the casual observer as more urgent matters.


Is the economic crisis going to hit us by the end of the first trimester next year? Are devaluation and gas price increase schedule by June 2009? Do they foresee inflation keeping above 3 % monthly? Or something even worse?

-The end-

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