Sunday, February 15, 2009

The 2009 referendum post


For those who read Spanish you can visit the latest entry of Gustavo Coronel who tells it EXACTLY as it is, even if you do not like what he says (personally I do not agree with the fraud part, I think Venezuela is stupid enough to have voted SI, but that will come in a post later this coming week). And for those who do not read Spanish allow me to send you back to this post of mine more than a week ago.


And the first effect are for you all to see. There is cadena to "celebrate" the victory of the SI even if 5 million people voted NO. And the cadena hides strange movements of intimidating mobs swarming through Chacao and around Globovision. ah! We elected a dictator! Ain't that wonderful!

9:35 PM

The SI won. End of story. Good thing that I never trust polls and even less exit polls.


Jorge Rodriguez has claimed victory violating all the rules of the CNE. But hen again he might have just said that becasue, well, the followers around him were just a tad lugubrious. What is important to note is that if, say, Rosales would have declared himself winning, the Army would be arresting him as I type. Rodriguez is just doing fine, thank you!


I {heart} New York! SI 79 NO 617


Ah la la! La France, Paris, les petites femmes! SI 37 NO 199


Comando Angostura (the opposition umbrella for the NO) gives a result similar to the students AND they put the SI winning in Yaracuy. I feel better about that one.


A reliable contact tells me that the student exit poll is the best of the lot. I have my doubt because it gives Yaracuy for the NO. Of course I would be delighted to see my home state go NO but it went SI in 2007 and very much pro Chavez in November. Oh well, we must keep waiting.....


My El Junquito contact tells me that the SI won there, and better than what Garcia Carneiro won last November. Again, time to take deep breathes and remember that your friendly blogger predicted a NO victory by 150 000 votes only, which nearly guarantees a few tense hours ahead.


I have received a little bit ago the "student exit poll". I coudl not verify anything, and I am uneasy as it gives detailed results by state, including Amazonas and Delta Amacuro where I did not know there were enough students to even do an exit poll in the jungle voting booth. Well, any way, I will give you at least the main results: SI 47% NO 53%.


From Macaracuay, oppo stronghold. Mesa 1, NO 408 SI 42; 4, NO 381 SI 24; 5, NO 368 SI 33; 7, NO 383 SI 47; 11, NO 404 Si 35.... OK no surprise, just to let you know that the opposition voted a little bit more than in November and equally strong against Chavez. In other words, if the NO wins it will be because many pro Chavez did not agree on him in office forever and ever.

7:00 PM

Tenerife, Canary Islands. SI 86, NO 1168!!! Una pelusa!!!

6:01 TibiSI is closing the ballots. Now we have to wait.

One exit poll gives the SI ahead. So as expected, as usual, there was no reason in getting elated earlier, or at any point anyway. The only positive thing is that oppo leadership seems happier than chavismo. But experience tells us how easy it is to wipe a smile.

4:41 PM

A reader sends the view from Brussels. Hilarious! As if such a display would change people's vote on their way to the embassy!

3:56 PM

My brother reports 356, which is almost what they did in November and still 2 hours to go.

London final

NO 307
SI 22 (the embassy personnel?)


A New York reader went to vote and sends me this rather scandalous view of PSF promoting the SI vote at the door of the consulate, Cuban flag included. Click to see the gross details. In Venezuela the "plan Republica" would have put an end to it, no matter how pro Chavez they might be.


Table 2, London: 102 NO, 14 SI. No surprise.

3:04 PM

I am receiving exit polls. AGAIN! provisional, do not get your hopes up, I CANNOT VERIFY! The No would be ahead between 3 and 5% so far. Be aware that the chavismo machinery is ONLY starting to work right now.

2:55 PM

My brother reports 326, which is almost what he got on November at 5PM, proving once and for all that the 2 hours voting extension was simply a trick to allow chavismo to herd its voters at specific centers.


Voted. My center had already 50% participation which is more than what it gets at noon.

All quiet, no lines anywhere. I have not turned the TV at all today. What for? Though I got SMS that many voting machines are acting up.

11:49 AM

220 /527 41.7% participation. Note that on November 23 371 voters had voted by 6 PM which means the pace is to beat that number!

11:26 AM

First results. If you recall from last November, I have a brother working at a polling station. He transmits through blackberry the participation rate during the process. It is a center where Chavez got only a dozen votes out of 300+ last November, so we know what the result will be. However it is interesting to report becasue it is a sign on how motivated the opposition is to go and vote NO.
First results:
9:30 118 / 527
10:50 180 /527 34% participation, higher than November at the same time.

By the way, if anyone knows folks stuck at voting tables willing to transmit results, please, send. Though I suspect most readers are outside Venezuela...

11:17 AM

Those little things that make you gag on your coffee. I got Yaracuy Al Dia, the pro Chavez rag of the area which I rarely get. But heck, I am goign to get stuck at home all day but voting. Well, to tell you how mentally underdeveloped we still are, one of the front page headlines reads:

"Presidente Chavez dispuesto a respetar resultados".
President Chavez willing to respect results.

They are kidding, no? Does he has any other legal choice? After supposedly 60 years of elections and still peopel that shoudl know better like the editors of Yaracuy Al Dia still marvel at the presidential generosity to recognize the results!!!! You may read again my post of yesterday as this head line confirms a lot of what I wrote last night.

9:54 AM

Well, I got the papers and drove around a few centers. No lines anywhere, as expected since voting is easy. The chavista machinery is in full display, they have a tent about a 100 yards from any center I drove by. However contrary to November 23, there is a few people busy on cell phones under each tent. That is they are already fast at monitoring who votes.

No opposition machinery anywhere to be seen. It died on November 23 and without even a single town hall in Yaracuy it simply cannot mount an electoral machinery. The more so when the governor has no qualms in dipping in public treasury to finance the chavista machinery. Chicago's Daley would have had it that easy....

Breakfast time now. See you in an hour or so.

8:57 AM

A grumpy start for the day. Already at 4 a stupid truck started circulating with the military reveille which seems to have become a chavista tradition imposed on all of us, as if there was nothing else to do on voting day but go, vote and go home eat our nails. It is even more irksome becasue I moved to an area where Chavez does not reach the 20% so why bother here? The only result coudl be anti-Chavez folks pissed at not been able to sleep late and thus go definitely out to vote.

Now I have no school in front of me so I cannot tell you anymore how the flow of voters go as the day progress. I already walked the dog and now I am ready to go and get the papers. Now I need to drive to get the papers, there is no "quiosco" close by. So I will drive in front of a couple of schools to see how is it working. I suspect fine because it is really easy to vote, not the mess we had in Yaracuy last November with the opposition divided. See you later.

-The end-

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