Sunday, February 14, 2010

Veneconomy predicts cataclysm in Venezuela

The respected Veneconomy magazine has done its calculations over the real consequences of the electricity crisis that Chavez brought upon us in Venezuela. Yours truly had already said in 2009 that he anticipated a deepening of recession for the first two quarters of 2010. Veneconomy says he is wrong. GDP decrease will go on for the whole of 2010 AND 2011 at the very least.  Taken from Miguel blog (which will save you the semi cumbersome way to get to it in its page web, there is the summary paragraph.  Read and weep.

As a result, VenEconomy’s preliminary estimate is that the crisis will cost the na­tion the equivalent of 8% of GDP in 2010, plus another 6% in 2011 (assuming that Chávez is mistaken in saying that 2011 will be a worse year for the electricity sector than 2010), and a further 4% in 2012, for a total cumulative three-year contraction equivalent to 18% of GDP, for a total of some Bs.F.5,000 (in today’s bolívars) for every man, woman and child in Venezuela.


  1. Charly12:52 AM

    And yet those animals will vote for the pelo pintao tas ponchao on the next election. Time to make room for a modern Kubilai Khan who can manage this country.

  2. I certainly hope the people of Venezuela come to their senses.

  3. Quoting Daniel from his '2010 For Venezuela' post:

    " now the opposition must prepare itself for a new kind of independence war, with all the violence and repression that this idea carries."

    Most of my friends in Venezuela write to me saying things like: people go to marches and it's like a party, Chavez cuts off the lights and folks just adapt to it, the Bolivar loses strength and we just shrug our shoulders and say " that's life we have to live with it", Chavez allows crime to go to unprecedented levels and we just stay home at night or else go out anyway thinking nothing will happen to us.We claim we can still have fun.

    Where is the passion to stand up to abuse? The collective self esteem is not what it should be .Back in the days of the civil rights movement in the US. blacks used the power of music to gather the self esteem and collective UNIFIED power needed to do just that:to stand up!

    The song " We shall Overcome" was instrumental in successfully campaigning against oppression.It created a WALL of sound that was hard to penetrate and overcome.I post a youtube of a recent recording in a church in South Carolina where people are connecting with their own power through music.At about 5 minutes into the song they are able to connect with each other strongly, creating a powerful collective force.
    Another positive aspect of some music is that it can facilitate the transformation of pain and suffering into power.
    Of course people first have to allow themselves to feel the pain of sadness and abuse, not deny it.This is 'A must hear'.It is a good way to channel our anger for a good use..

  4. I've always found Bottome to be quite the pessimist, so I tend to take this with a grain of salt, and see it as towards one end (the worst) of the range of possibilities. I could definitely see the 2010 result being less bad than this, and I certainly wouldn't rule out some recovery by 2012.

    But don't for a second believe that I see good news for Venezuela in the short to medium term. I doubt that it will be as bad as this prediction, but it will most assuredly be bad.

  5. AIO

    Even if the predictions are only half as bad, we are still facing a potential 10% drop in GDP in 2010-2011. Maybe I can change cataclysm for disaster? :)

  6. Yeah, I can agree with that description! Kind of sums up the near future when you can say you're actually HOPING for "just" a disaster.


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