Electoral reality check

This week end, major newspapers carried electoral studies about the opposition chances for September legislative elections.  As if we were in a perfectly normal country.  Even Quico went through such exercise a few weeks ago.  It seems that for once I am not the one doing the detailed electoral analysis.  Why?  Because I think that it will be very difficult to reach the September electoral date, at least as planned.

Before I continue I do not want to imply that there will not be elections this year, that a "constitutional coup" is coming. I mean that elections can either be postponed or held but for other objectives.  Though with Chavez one never knows exactly what is cooking.


To understand the hypothesis I will advance later it is important to remember a few elemental facts and observations:

• Chavez knows that the economical situation is not working in his favor.  By September the consequences of devaluation, inflation and production decrease due to energy shortages will be felt in full, complicating the PSUV electoral task no matter how much oil money comes in to buy votes
• Chavismo knows very well that a loss at the National Assembly could quickly unravel the regime as finally some form of control will appear and the turpitude prevalent in the day to day routine would be fully exposed
• In addition a National Assembly not under chavismo control will not allow Chavez to use state money as he pleases
• Finally such an hypothetical assembly would start taking away the control of the judicial system from the executive hands, the last step to remove Chavez from power if the above does not work

The final result could be not only that Chavez would be forced to resign, but he could end in jail with at least a couple of dozens of his helpers (Diosdado, Ramirez, Faria, Rodriguez, Rangel, etc...).  Chavismo knows that very well or why do you think they refuse to acknowledge things such as the OAS's IACHR Human Rights reprot, or Spanish justice?  The question here that is truly ruling the political climate even though many stick their head in the sand is how will Chavez avoid losing control of the legislative power.

We can come up easily with a dozen or more scenarios, ranging from an outright coup to Chavez accepting meekly and unfavorable electoral result, though from past experience we know that neither one of these extremes will happen.  In no particular order I will list some possible hypothesis.

The outright electoral fraud.  There is already electoral fraud going on, from the CNE gerrymandering to the extensive cadenas of electoral nature already taken place.  But if that is not enough to ensure victory, will the CNE go as far as fudging the final numbers?  Let's not forget that the 2007 result is still not known.  If the opposition win were to be too important why not admit its victory but by a one seat majority, hoping that soon enough one of the new representatives can be bought out, or jailed, or killed, as needed.  Hence for a few weeks "democracy" would have been in place but without the time to clean up the government.

The legislative fraud.  A variant of the above.  The opposition wins but the lame duck assembly has still two months to legislate and writes itself out of any real power.  The new assembly is powerless at first and must struggle to recover some of its power control.  It can do that even against a hostile Judicial Power but Chavez gains time until more favorable days allow him to try another electoral outcome to get rid of the opposition majority.

Suspending elections.  Any international or internal crisis could be enough to postpone the election by a few months.  That hypothesis has two problems: 1) only the government is interested in generating such a crisis and it would show, possibly damaging its future electoral results and 2) it could only work if the economic prospects of the country look significantly better BEFORE March 2010 as the elections could not really be postponed beyond May 2010 as too many elections are already overdue (partial elections, municipal ones).

A different electoral contest.  Chavez will try to avoid a defeat at all costs and one way to do that is to run in a different type of election where he has a better chance to prevail.  That is why he has already been trying to convince the opposition to call for a recall election, conveniently forgetting that he promised in 2006 to call for such a referendum, supposedly to convince people of his democratic talent.

Fortunately for Chavez an historical landmark is just around the corner: the bicentennial of April 19 1810 when Venezuela started its road to independence.   What better opportunity for a demagogic call for a referendum on a constitutional assembly or some constitutional reform that could weaken the power of  the incoming National Assembly?  After all, the High Court has opened that way by suggesting that strict separation of powers is not a good thing!

True, he could lose such a referendum but there is a major difference: in September Chavez will not be perceived as being himself in the ballot, no matter how hard he tries to convince us that the new National Assembly first task is to end the revolution.  However in a referendum Chavez is on the ballot himself and his personal emotional ties with a large sector of the country could work out and postpone the collapse of his regime, considering that the opposition seems to be woefully unprepared for any maneuver outside of the September vote (for which it already seems to have lots of problems!  Imagine if they had to decide on a Constitutional Assembly strategy!).

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There!  Take your pick or come up with another plan but pray that the political opposition has a think tank group working on the hypothesis above, and more.

PS: yes, I will make further electoral analysis and predictions, but not yet as I think predicting more than what I have already done is useless until we know the candidates in critical circumscriptions.