Friday, December 02, 2011

Foreign Policy top 100 thinkers of the year

What better way to start commemoration and list month (December) than noting the magazine Foreign Policy top 100 thinkers.  Only two Latino Americans made it, and a well deserved choice: Yoani Sanchez and our very own Teodoro Petkoff.  Two anti Castro and anti Chavez thinkers.  And in the list try to find one who seriously would consider defend Chavez or Castro.
ERRATA: although I scanned the list twice I missed Dilma Roussef in it.  So I suppose that I was wrong in assuming that no one in that list would defend Castro or Chavez.  Not that she will necessarily be willing to do so since she is less keen on be seen with Chavez than Lula was, but she will defend Brazil big business in Venezuela and if it means hugging Chavez publicly once a year as she did yesterday, so be it.  Yet, considering her rather significant reversal on Lula support to Iran, I have still hope that she will dump Chavez when necessary.


  1. Charly3:20 AM

    Daniel, to add insult to injury, Chavez was number 10 among the 50 people who mattered in 2010 according to the New Stateman:

    In 2011, he hase disapearred from the list:

  2. Greetings Daniel

    I know this might seem out of place as a reply for this particular topic, but I wanted to ask you if you were interested on a litle bit something that I have been up to in the last few days, and its this:

    What if I told you that the rate of increase or decrease of chavez's support (election-wise) compared to a previous election is creepingly connected to the rate of increase or decrease of the total number of registered voters (vease: REP)

    As many people suspect, I think the trampa is already montada in the CNE via the REP, so at the eyes of everyone there is no fraud whatsoever.

    I used this dataset: for this hobby.

    A little teaser:

    in 2008 there were approx 0.76 times the voters that were registered for the 2007 election, in 2009 there were 1.52 times the registered voters of 2008 and in 2010 there were 0.68 times the number of voters of 2009.

    Now, as for the pro-government vote:

    In 2008 pro-government vote got approx 86% of the number of votes it got on 2007 and won with approx 55% of the total vote (compared to 40% when chaves lost el referendum), in 2009 pro-gov vote increased by a factor of 1.53 for the reelecion indefinida referendum which chavez won with 55% and then on 2010 the gov got 63% of the vote it got on la reforma.

    In short

    RV = normalized total number of registered voters (compared to previous year)
    PG = normalized pro-gov total
    number of votes (compared to previous year)
    %G: percentage of total pro-gov vote (aka: election results chavez-wise)

    RV 0.76 1.52 0.68
    PG 0.85 1.53 0.63
    %G 55 55 51*

    * = the data for this election didnt account for ppt votes AFAIK :p

    This is interesting because if there is a correlation between the increase or decrease of votes in chavez's support and the increase or decrease total number of registered voters, one has to ask: "how does that have an effect on election results?"

    I guess it's pretty simple :)

    If you're interest on my findings, please let me know via reply to this comment or by an e-mail (be warned though that I very seldom check my mail :p)

  3. Anonymous4:12 PM

    You overlooked the fact that Dilma Rouseff is on the list that makes a total of THREE latinos.

    cheers, George

  4. Kernel Panic,

    I have understood this for some time as well, but what I find totally bizarre is that it is rarely discussed.People in the opposition keep on acting as if they could actually win the elections.Perhaps they think that by not discussing it people will go and vote...but my way would be different.I always believe in being upfront with the truth.

    Regarding this post:

    Teodoro's input is especially valuable because of the credibility he has among the left.Conservatives were quick to spot Chavez's intentions but many on the left were fooled by his pretensions of" helping the poor". There are so many bad people out there who strive to look better than they are, and then there are the people who vote for them.

  5. george


    you are one of the very few people that have proven me dead wrong or misinformed. congratulations!


  6. torres9:18 PM

    I think Carlos Pascual is Cuban-American, and Luis Moreno Ocampo from Argentina.

  7. Herman Cain is weak in foreign affairs only because he hasn't had one yet.

  8. CharlesC2:42 AM

    Jeff,have you contacted him yet?
    How strong are you?
    Just ribbing you, pal.
    I think Cain is toast now.
    A quote I heard is "Cain is a
    train with too much steam
    on the windows and not enough
    in the engine".

  9. You missed Argentine jurist Moreno-Ocampo #44

  10. CharlesC6:03 PM

    I think Roussef,Dilma is doing a
    "reality check" with Chavez and Chavez is avoiding her, too.
    Big change, just not clear yet.

  11. Kernel,

    what's your email?


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