Thursday, March 08, 2012

Diosdado Cabello, the heir of the bolibanana revolution?

Last January we were wondering about the return of Diosdado Cabello in favor.  And it seems to be confirmed as he has started crisscrossing the country as if he were candidate for something.

There is not much that I can add to what I wrote then.  Cabello is the one holding the more cards within chavismo right now and Chavez has no choice but to let him fly on his own as long as he is not certain he can come back with enough health to campaign himself.  Chavismo and the Cuban counsel must have realized that a plan B is a must and, well, Diosdado is the lone plan B left.

How does this affect the election?  We already saw the renewed tension when Capriles march in the popular sector of Cotiza in Caracas was attacked last Sunday and someone even got a shot wound standing next to him.  The bad rap for the regime has been terrible since Sunday but that is not what should worry us: those are the kind of scare tactics that Diosdado is willing to use with more ease than Chavez himself.  And more is yet to come. Let me remind you that for example 7 years ago when Diosdado was elected Miranda governor he had no problem pointing out that the state deserved a governor with a wife, a first lady, deliberately casting doubts on Mendoza then running for reelection.  Considering that Capriles, who beat him 4 years later, is running for president you can imagine the grudge that Diosdado must have against that nice young polite man who is all that he is not (he is even rich from birth, not like Diosdado that had to steal it all).

How this did happen?  I think that the military are in large part responsible for that.  Whether they are chavistas, they are first military and after enduring 13 years of prosperity with one of them in Miraflores they are certainly not looking kindly on a chavista Taliban replacing Chavez.  Diosdado is not well liked but at least he is a known value for them who know full well all the misdeeds he has in his judicial drawer and thus think they can control him.  At this point they probably do not care who of Diosdado or Capriles will win: they will be able to rein either one, at least in the early part of their eventual term.  If what I just wrote is true, then we know that Chavez indeed has no control of the army in spite of everything he tried: it was just a matter of how much he could give them, how credible a provider he appeared.

Now, weak, a double liar from promising he was cured and that the opposition would never be able to field a unity candidate, Chavez simply is fading in the military eyes, even were he to miraculously recover in Havana.  Times are changing.

Meanwhile, brace yourself even more than you thought you should have for what promises to be a campaign from hell.


  1. Anonymous9:38 PM

    There's something about the way you lay it out on the line. You are right, so right.
    Except for one thing- I think the military is basically, brainless, spineless and the generals are just wanting to continue their corruption and mendaciousness.Furthermore, the military is hoping not to have to put down the unruly militia/chavista maniacs.(They will if they have to..)Dioscabello has become the
    "embodiment"of chavismo-and it is sort of like a zombie since Chavez the head is "away" and loco...

  2. Boludo Tejano10:46 PM

    Whatever you say about the current edition of Venezuelan politics, it is not boring. These narratives read like a roman-a-clef in the making. Or like the latest chapter of Charles Dickens in the current monthly.

    Unfortunately, a good read does not necessarily make a good experience for those on the spot.

    1. Boludo Tejano10:47 PM

      God-given Hair: sounds like a name out of a Dickens novel

  3. Oh the venezuelan military will never change,they will always be corrupt,immoral and desgraciados. As long as the military remain tainted,drug,weapon and gasoline trafficking will be alive and prospering in Venezuela.And with it comes the most corrupt politians we will ever see.And with it comes armed militias and rampant crime.And with it comes fear and low standards of living. Im not implying they're the only thing thats wrong though.

    Diosdado Cabello is as corrupt,"descarado" and ruthless as it gets.Even more so than Chavez. The latter is just a crazy person,but God-given calva is sane,calculating and violent.

    There are no words to describe what i feel for that man.

  4. Charly8:42 AM

    At election time, Cabello does not have a leg to stand on, nobody wants him. So he will have to impose himself by force. This piece of #@?&* strikes me as Chavez's Gomez.

  5. "...they are certainly not looking kindly on a chavista Taliban replacing Chavez." Right. It's never been about ideology for them.

  6. Island Canuck6:48 PM

    I was talking to our Chavista family member last night & mentioned that his highness was not likely to make it to the election & that without him the others would stand no chance against Capriles.

    Her reaction was about what I expected - that Chavez has gotten rid of his cancer and would be here for many years to come & that she agreed that Chavismo without Chavez would not succeed.

    Names like Cabello, Jaua & Maduro just make her shudder.

    1. Unlike Dr. Frankenstein, Chavez will not be around to see the monster he has created.

  7. I read that gunsmiths and the sale of ammunition is being outlawed in Venezuela. Is this something that has been a long time coming, or does it signify Chavez fear of upheaval?

  8. Island Canuck10:43 PM

    "...does it signify Chavez fear of upheaval?"

    It signifies that he wants the guns out of the hands of anyone opposed to him & in the hands of his supporters as was evidenced last week when a Chavista official was seen handing out guns and Bs.250 to thugs to shoot at the Capriles gathering.

  9. Dr. Faustus11:54 PM

    Batten down the hatches. I believe that Venezuela is about to see a gigantic political tsunami heading its way, week! The next 7 to 10 days will be critical as to who will be facing off against whom in October. I don't think it will be Hugo, ...maybe Adan. But, it's coming,...just watch.

  10. Anonymous3:16 AM
    noted on Fausta's blog..
    ( Cuba is mobilizing armed forces go to to Venezuela)

  11. Anonymous3:23 AM

    “La oposición quiso provocar al pueblo (…) querían masacrar al pueblo de Cotiza”
    Quote from Diosdado Cabello today. What a
    moron!!! Can you believe he said that??

  12. Anonymous3:55 AM

    Is there any way to confirm what anonymous points out on Faustas Blog that cuba is mobilizing armed forces? this is huge and needs to be investigated.

  13. I would love to see an extended bio of Diosdado Cabello. Opposition should be working now to "define" him. Otherwise, even a September p.r. offensive by the regime might turn him into everyone's friend.

  14. Anonymous3:10 PM

    Actually, it's too bad that everyone can't/don't just ignore Cabello. He is the
    replacement for Alo Presidente...Everyday
    he pops up somewhere with numerous lies,
    propaganda for chavismo.Does he think everyone is so stupid as to believe his gargabe?

  15. Anonymous4:53 PM

    Gotta love this!!!

  16. Chavez has always claimed any benefits that people receive from his government as coming from him personally, and all the failures blamed on his incompetent underlings.This includes his potential successors who have been discharged and dressed down by Chavez for not performing adequately.

    No wonder no Chavista leader except Chavez comes close to Capriles in the polls !Their lack of popularity also makes it more difficult to convincingly steal the elections.

    Timidly assuming ( perhaps wrongly )that Chavez survives, Perhaps he will still run with limited appearances while invoking sympathy for his sickness and emphasizing the miraculous nature of his survival.


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