Wednesday, October 03, 2012

The VN&V "exit" poll

First, it is not an exit poll, it is just a scheme to get some data before the CNE speaks. That way we can get busy while waiting and already publish our own results AFTER 6 PM so as not to break any major rule and not getting anyone into trouble.

This being said, the bad news is that so far I got 4 embassies and only three centers in Venezuela. What to do?
Clearly, embassies are not very useful in that we know most of them will vote for Capriles at a rate starting at 60% and going up to 90% (wait until you see the New Orleans result....).  Putting a couple of embassies in a 25 polling station group is OK, putting 4 in a dozen less so.

But then again it is possible that with a couple of thousand really regular readers, 3/4 out of Venezuela, I may not be able to reach the 25 centers mark, statistically speaking.

The good news is that I am in contact with a group of people that are trying to set up a system like the one I had in mind.  They are up to couple of dozen already and hope to reach 100.  I am the one that can bring embassies :).  But I cannot entrust the confidentiality of readers to just anyone.

Thus, since what I propose I can set at home between Friday and Saturday, a simple model and I have someone that knows of such stuff already volunteering to help. I can wait a couple of days more.  If I get enough candidates, then we will try.  If I am below 20 then I will transmit the data myself to the other team protecting the confidentiality of participants.  I will not even tell them the center name, just that it fits in their requirements.

So, keep looking for people working Sunday in a center, even an embassy (I can always do an embassy only thing for kicks).  Do not forget that you DO NOT NEED to be yourself working in a station, you just need to know someone reliable and willing to transmit the data to you and then you to me.  The data is: confirmation of opening of centers and number of registered voters; at noon the participation number so far; by 7 PM the result, and later a recount if the center has been selected for audit.  Plus incidents if necessary but let's hope for peace and quiet and boredom.

Note: I will reply soon to those who already wrote. Be patient, I am just waiting to have enough for a mailing list (in Bcc: do not worry)


  1. Anonymous1:22 PM

    I was thinking that the Capriles camp (either has or) should have something like this. Since they have witnesses just about everywhere, they should transmit the results to the central command as soon as the votes are counted and publish them immediately on the internet. It'd have to be a website outside Venezuela (though I'm guessing internet in Venezuela will go kaput before 5PM on 7O).

    It is obvious that the CNE, on purpose, won't show any results until past 4AM, like they did on the referendum, to ensure everyone is too tired to do any protesting if they try to pull off another fraud. So we need to know the actual results before 10PM so CNE can't do any funny business.

    1. Yes, but political parties or media cannot do this whereas blogs....... The idea is to keep ourselves busy while we wait and around 6:30 be able to publish our own "trend".

    2. Anonymous5:00 AM

      That system does exist, it has been developed for months and there have been several drills with thousands of participants... El comando will have a very good estimate of the result, don't fear

  2. Island Canuck2:30 PM

    In all past elections there was no problem with the Internet.

    There were problems with some websites that were overwhelmed with viewers.

    Remember it goes both ways. If they restrict the oppos they restrict the Chavistas as well.

    If they do cut off the Internet or the cel phone companies then for sure you will know that something is going on. But, there is still Globovision.

    In the last couple of days there has been a lot of negative emotion in the English blogs. Why don't we all calm down and have a little patience. At this point what will be will be & voicing our fears, valid or not, will not help.

    Capriles will win on Sunday. Hay un camino!

    1. 1) this is going to be the first tweeter election of venezuela. the flow of information is goign to be awesome, and dangerous as it will collapse the web the way it did last sunday in caracas.

      2) what "negative emotion"? not here. but then again you really need to want to post in this blog, which already cools off hot heads when they need to log in or at least punch the spam protection. less comments, less emotion. just about right for me :)

    2. Island Canuck4:56 PM

      No, I agree - not here.


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