Monday, December 17, 2012

Let the postmortem-s begin, idiocy, wretchedness and primaries

I was going to wait until tomorrow but three things made find the way back to the key board.  First, the CNE did publish at least the governor result (the legislative results are another thing, not all up and complete enough for a few more hours). Second, the response of the opposition through Capriles and Aveledo was a little bit more combative than last time. Apparently they have learned something from October 7. And third, idiocies like this one need to be addressed ASAP.

Coincido: pasar de ganar dos estados el 7O a cuatro es un logro, en estas condiciones tan adversas. Felicitaciones a la Unidad. A trabajar.

"I agree: coming from winning 2 states to 4 is an achievement, in such contrary conditions".

I will start by 3 if you forgive me. That someone who has such a high opinion of herself as frequent Globovision guest writes such an idiocy is dangerous  Besides comparing apples and oranges she is failing to read the result of today. We LOST states from 2008, and not insignificant ones: Zulia and Carabobo which Lara is far from compensating. The result of today is the result of 6 years of deliberate social dependency creation in the Venezuelan electorate. That Chavez disease was milked for all its worth by chavismo who survived massive abstention compounds the problem. I am aghast that already such self complacency has started!!!!

Fortunately we can move on 2 to compensate, with a more combative speech from Capriles and Aveledo. The Capriles one is not worth really commenting much but the Aveledo is. Besides not recognizing yet the results he also reminds people that the battle is not over because the "irresponsible" actions of the regime have created a crisis that will be played next year.  Let's see if the MUD is able to force the recognition of a Bolivar victory tomorrow.

Which brings us to the first point, the "provisional" results and what they mean, for starters, for the opposition.

First, primaries are not a panacea for candidate choosing. Republicans in the US have rediscovered that with some failed tea party Senate candidates. In Venezuela in some states where old ex governors were running, after winning a primary against new talent, we can see that open primaries in some areas is a waste of time and money. In Apure, Lippa got only 24%. In Cojedes ever running and running again Galindez got 37%.  And in Portuguesa Colmenares gets a truly embarrassing 22%.

And even when reelection was not sought, disaster could come. Merida is a pathetic example where Lester Rodriguez won the primary, Capriles won in October and yet Lester could not overcome the local prejudice against him and only got 39%. Not 49%, 39%..... When local divisions are this deep primaries are useless, or should come at least with a two round ballot or something.

But before you use this to condemn primaries in 4 states where primaries were not held we bit the dust: Zulia, Nueva Esparta, Tachira and Carabobo.  It seems to me that primaries  were run where they were not needed.  A lesson there. Someone reading?

Second, the race for the opposition leadership is far from clear. True, Capriles won but with barely 4 points whereas Falcon in Lara did get a more convincing 12 point advance. Can anyone claim without the faintest of doubts that Capriles is still the lone and unique and best candidate against Chavez or Maduro? I, for one, do not think it so.

Third, as if this was not enough trouble for the opposition preparations for presidential elections coming probably next February, we must underline the wretchedness of a bulk of chavismo electorate. You may remember a post from a couple of weeks ago where I even put up an amateur map describing the drug/FARC corridor about to be set up from Colombia to Guarico state. Well, let's look at the results of the governors involved.

Zulia. The most "normal" result, with Arias Cardena who is more of a nincompoop than an actual delinquent- 52%-
Trujillo. Diaz Rangel, major sucker up to Chavez  on the drug trafficker list of the DEA, of anti democratic certified credentials, gets 82 fucking % in Trujillo.
Portuguesa. Here we get the reelection of a heavily contested chavista but how so close to Chavez. He managed to double the chavista dissident leaving in third the opposition one....
Cojedes. The talibanic bitch gets easily 62%.
Guarico. I saved you the best for last, the end of the road, Guarico, where Rodriguez Chacin got 73%.  In addition to be on all sorts of international crime lists which basically stop him form ever leaving Venezuela, he is also the videotaped devoted friend of the FARC guerilla.

I mean, let's be serious, how can you reach an electorate that votes for such scum?


  1. Tranquilo Daniel. El tiempo de Dios es perfecto. Perfecto para que el pueblo Venezolano siga votando por delincuentes. Perfecto para destruir lo poco que queda. Que alguien por favor le diga a Capriles que apague los tele tubis y se ponga a ver/leer de la realidad de Venezuela y de como ante un gobierno como el de Chavez el guavineo solo hace perder votos. Un par de huevos para la MUD por favor

  2. Oh dear God, please stop whining about Capriles "soft talk".
    Yes, we lost in October with the smallest difference so far. Not enough but the best so far.
    Capriles managed to keep a state where he lost against ch. That is something to take into account. All the effort in campaigning with volunteers and phone calls, house visits and else gave a positive result. And that is the work that has to continue.
    The thing that i hate most of rojitos is that they keep seeing the glass half full. Even when losing they see everything as a triumph. It is time we do the same. See what works and ditch what is no working.And keep smiling, otherwise we wiil be the "disociaos llenos de odio"

  3. I endorse your views on the electoral results, Daniel. They brought to my mind the case of Chang and Eng, the famous siamese twins. Chang was a heavy drinker who shortened his life. Eng a teetotaller who wanted to live. Chang died and Eng died with him. In those days separation was not an option. Venezuela harbors two siamese brothers and their separation is, equally, not an option. But one is commiting suicide and will bring the other one with him to the grave.

  4. Charly2:42 PM

    It all means very little in the grand scheme of things. Arnold Palmer would say: "keep your eyes on the ball". The ball is currently in bed in Cuba. The rojos rojitos are probably an avatar of the Mangalores. If they loose their leader, they will be, well, leaderless. Will they dissolve? Will they turn the movement into a true religion? Chavez genius was to permit co-existence of two disparate characters such as Maduro and Cabello. After he is gone no one can generate that level of loyalty, one cannot turn turkeys into eagles or sycophants into dear leaders. It will then be a new ball game.

  5. Daniel, what is going on in Venezuela seems so confusing. In Oct there was a "record" high participacion and Chavez won. It just happened that chavez needed high participation to deal with the numbers HCR was carrying. Yesterday you have 8 million voters from october deciding to stay home? (Wow!)and Chavez won. it seems he can't loose.
    Numberwise, how did the abstention afected both sides? Have you compared ratios (Chavez vs MUD) from Oct to Dec in each of the states? Are you going to?
    I think numbers can tell quite a bit. Where those 8 millions mostly MUD? Or were there evenly spread? Did the absentee numbers mirror the bulge of voters in Oct, in other words, did the CNE turned off the "ghost voters" switch in their machines? I truly hope you will break down the numbers for us in the near future. Orlando

  6. andrew10:28 PM

    Probelm is that the brainwash done thru the TV and obsessive billboards campaigns has been immense and unfair vs other candidates. Poor and barely educated people unfortunately accounts for the majority of venezuelan people now...and future does not look better with such a low level of people I am afraid...


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