Sunday, April 14, 2013

The last, I hope, election day post

Tibisay announces Maduro winning....


Shit! Tibisay arrives when I was about to walk out!


Time to walk the poor dog. Tibisay, hold on for 15 minutes more!!!!


Well, it looks like the military are deciding what is it to be done. 14 years of leftist "participatory democracy" and we end up where we started, or rather never got out of it: the army has always the last world in Venezuela.


Twitter conspiracy theory calmed some but the now unaccountable delay of the CNE is reviving the flames. At this time, if the result is too close to give a winner they should just say it and offer a time when to announce it.


The long wait continues. Since I got a serious rumor from two serious source I am allowing myself to pass it on: it would be Capriles by 1%, barely, which explain why Aveledo an hour ago wanted the CNE to already count the votes overseas that would add 50,000 at least to Capriles. For the record: 1% in Venezuela is 180.000 votes so the overseas vote do matter to pad the margin.


I just finished the live tweet of Aveledo press conference. Quick summary for those without tweeter:
- it seems that we have won
- gauntlet thrown at the CNE and chavismo in case they want to do us kikiriwiki.
- but I observe merriment and nervousness which I assume means a narrow victory for Capriles.


Capriles people are about to talk. I will tweet it live in English. @danielduquenal. Sorry for those who have no tweeter.


This the worst night. On TV there is psychopath Jorge Rodriguez accusing Capriles of preparing fraud and complaining that the whole world is against them but they will defend the vote. As if the opposition had ANY MEAN to change the electoral result....  Psychopath!

On the other hand Capriles Tweets grow chirpier....


Things are getting ugly. Capriles just posted this tweet:

"We alert the country and the world that there is a will to change the will express by the people. Retweet this"
That is, he is about to call for electoral fraud.


Capriles tweets are unequivocal: he all but claims directly he has won. Daring?


Twitter is full of reports from grave incidents everywhere across the country. The regime is clearly really nervous. It is a good time to point out that Maduro needs more than a victory, he needs it by 10 points to legitimize the inheritance.  Anything with a bare majority is as good as a defeat. Hence the clear nervousness displayed tonight by the chavista storm troopers attacking electoral centers here and there.


Ooops! The show with Silvio Canto is tomorrow Monday at 6PM Miami/EST time.


SCANDAL! Because Maduro's twitter had been hacked, the vice president decided to cut ALL INTERNET in Venezuela for a few minutes, to foil the "international conspiracy".

This is INADMISSIBLE!!!! What kind of fucking dictatorship Arreaza thinks he is running? What about all the opposition figures routinely hacked? Why doe she not stop Internet them?

These guys are truly sick, truly, truly fucked up.- The best for them is to leave power for a few years so they can get some therapy.


Voting stations are starting to close, as long as no one is waiting on line. Of course some have closed but chavista bikers arrive suddenly with more people to vote and force reopening even if illegal.... Same, same....

The rumor wars starts in all earnest. Even the Huffington Post in France already calls for Maduro winning, a lousy written note, without signature.... 4 hours ago....  On the other hand Rafael Poleo swears that we are winning by 4 points.

My advice, do what I did in the last 2 hours, drop twitter, make a tea pot and listen to some baroque music (I did Vivaldi).


I will be with my Cuban talk show friend, Silvio Canto,  from the US as we talk at each election.  It will be around 5PM Miami time and you can follow it live here.


I am in shock, I went, voted fast, was one of the last ones to vote at my table. They allowed me to scan through the vote book and no more than a couple names were missing from any page!!! They told me that participation at my table will be higher than last October, at least 400 out of 450..... with still two hours left to vote!!!!

How can I interpret this?  In my table, except for 1999 and 2005, I do not think Chavez ever made more than 30%, and our participation has never been below 60%, except perhaps for 2005 and 2007.  Is it that many people in this most anti Chavez center of Yaracuy decided to vote because maybe, just maybe there was a real chance to get rid of chavismo? Which mean than in the past many decided not to sacrifice a week end since Chavez was going to win anyway...

One thing is certain, now I am convinced that Capriles is going to get 7 millions.

Anecdote: one of my providers was where I vote.  I thought he voted there but no, he was monitoring a "red point".  He is chavista!!!  Now I understand why I had to get him as a provider: he was the only officially licensed provider in San Felipe for the service he provides to obtain one of the many permits the regime demands to operate...  If Maduro wins he is screwed. I'll get another one. Even if I have to pay more to have them come from Barquisimeto or Valencia.....


Last before going to vote.

The coverage by Gemma Casadevall for Deutsche Welle is awful. I was watching it because a relative was filmed by its cameras early this morning (they did show the school where he voted but not when he talked to them). They say that Maduro is "el candidato socialista", and Capriles "el candidato conservador. Like that, without anesthesia. Clichè fest, but from the idiot left. For them Capriles is violating electoral law as much as Maduro, without any subtlety, without any attempt at explaining why. You would almost be forgiven to believe that Capriles started violating electoral laws BEFORE the PSUV did.  In addition they happily speculate on Capriles not recognizing the result, with a wording deserving of Jorge Rodriguez. #fail.

On other news, no news since earlier messages.  Abstention seems headed to a 30% top. So suspense will be in store for a few more hours.

Now I am getting ready to go and vote. For the next hour or so, anything worthy will be reported on @danielduquenal


Though I have not set up any voting thing likenlast year I can already tell you that participation is nearing 50%. Which is good for Maduro. In addition there are plenty of reports that "operación remolque" started early this time around. That is, chavismo uses the state to bring its voters. We are left with the hope that chavistas will desert Chavez in high enough numbers and cross over .

On other thing my Internet is slow, my phones have a hard time establishing a connection and blogger barely works. Coincidence?


Dog walked, newspapers bought, ready for real breakfast.

Finally blogger allowed me to post the picture on how the "voto asistido" function: a PSUV official watches over how you vote....

It was threatening to be gettign bad enough that the Capriles people went on TV with a video where you could see how perfectly healthy and capable people were voting helped by a red shirted guy. But see, these voters belong to a mision and of course  chavismo needs to make sure....  At least Tibisay Lucena went on TV to say that it was illegal. that her warning works is another matter....

Abstention so far seems to be higher than last October but Capriles people have announced that the wait has been long enough and that now Capriles voters should head for the polls.  Let's see how that plays out.  One thing is certain, chavismo has been calling its people to vote from early enough so there is definitely, so far, a chavismo abstention.

Anecdote: the hunger problem under chavismo is getting worse: Tibisay said that 4 people ate their ballot.....


Blogger is starting to fail. I could not post my last update as it refuses to take pictures and is very, very slow....

9:45 AM

I have decided to write once again an election day post. After all, not only they are the most visited posts, but they also allow flexibility for the day. I write last because I thought that the election day post of October 2012 would have been my last since  that was that. I did not write one for December  But today I think that there will be enough events going on that a continuous post through the day is needed.

The first thing is that San Felipe did not have a "reveille", the first time in years.  That is, I was able to sleep peacefully until 8 AM when the phone rang.  It was a relative travelling outside of the country today on a long planned and paid for holiday who still managed to vote before going to the airport.  These two things I take as a good sign: chavismo mood is not that great that they do not do their nasty trumpet blaring at 4 AM; and people going out of their way to vote in spite of all odds.  Vote for Capriles that is.  Still, elsewhere there was a reveille call.

Eventually I dragged myself out of bed at 9 and had some cereal watching the news.  Chavistas are at it.  There are already plenty of reports of "voto asistido" where people in perfectly normal conditions are accompanied by a third party, a PSUV operator of course,  to cast their vote.  You have to understand that chavismo is fascismo and thus people cannot be trusted to vote the way they should.

Also in Maturin the mayor, a PSUV of course, has been doing the rounds at the head of a propaganda caravan in front of all voting centers.  That is by itself bad enough, besides being absolutely illegal.  But the point here is not only the brashness of the chavista official but also of the people in the lines waiting to vote: they cheered back.

Clearly, whatever democratic bone existed inside chavismo has been lost and in 14 years from the chavista hoi polloi to the higher up, fascist mindset has taken over. Those people are about to cross the line into public voting for a one party slate.... You know, like at the home of the colonial master, Cuba.


  1. I'm praying for you guys.

  2. kernel_panic5:58 PM

    Well daniel, in maracaibo, or at least where I live, the reveille didn't sound nearly as loud and for as much time as on 7-O. This was the first time it didn't woke me up, but my mom said that she was already awake and heard it.

    I went to vote, my center is usually 60oppo-40govt, it was at 10am, there were no lines, on my mesa are 521 voters, which 180 already had casted their votes. When I got out, there was starting to be a line, about 40 people or so.

    Also, we met with a neighbour who votes on a different center, same story, she voted at 930, no lines, most of the voters were capriles.

    Let's see how voting goes after noon. I'm not scared of voto asistido on the fact that it has already happened a lot before, so whatever influence it has on votes, it has already been observed previously. I'm more concerned about remolque.

    Let's see how this unfolds. keep blogging! :)

  3. Anonymous6:32 PM

    Puerto Ordaz voting has also been slow in both poor and middle-class neighborhoods.

  4. Boludo Tejano6:58 PM

    Finally blogger allowed me to post the picture on how the "voto asistido" function: a PSUV official watches over how you vote....

    I can hear the PSF bleating right now: "just an isolated incident."

    I wonder if "assisted voting" is more blatant now that the King is dead, for fear that if more "assisted voting" is not done,the Dauphin will be deposed. [To check my spelling, I went to Wiki. I hadn't realized before that Dauphin= dolfin.]

    The response of the Chavernment to the recording of "assisted voting" will probably be to prosecute those who recorded such incidents for violating the "sanctity" of the polling places.

    While Venezuelans will be voting today, many procrastinating US citizens will be working on their Income Tax 1040s. I will.

  5. I'm working on it too, I have pictures from chicago, if there is an email for me to send it to. lots of people out with some really hopeful moods here.

    1. Cool! I live in the area and I'm praying for the best today.

    2. danielinyaracuy @

  6. Anonymous8:01 PM

    Here are the numbers in one Mesa in Alto prado in Caracas: 1:15 pm 52.9%


  7. Michel Garcia8:24 PM

    Took me 9 minutes to vote (from the moment I stepped into the voting center to the moment I stepped out of it); strangely (taking into consideration past elections) there was no-one with any t-shirt or hats or anything that would obviously tell who they were supporting, however, the loud-speakers had Chávez singing.

  8. Anonymous8:25 PM

    Here are the numbers in one Mesa in Alto Prado in Caracas: 1:52 pm 57.8%: 20 min break for lunch !


  9. Anonymous8:31 PM

    It is hard to believe that Capriles could win since the Chavistas control everything and knowing the communist penchant for mass murder if they lose as well.

  10. Anonymous9:14 PM

    The family was in and out within 15 minutes. Smooth without many people in line. I hope the plan to flood the afternoon with late vote doesn't backfire.


  11. Charly9:32 PM

    Deutsche Welle? Daniel, we all know where the Germans come from so no wonder. (N.B. Nothing beats a good blow below the belt)

  12. Germans, their dumber than Americans when it comes to LatAm, forget them!

  13. I feel a bit of concern that the voting is fast and easy. Could it be that is what some call "Vote early and vote often"? Je ce pas. Regardless, a new chapter in the history of Venezuela is about to begin.

  14. Anonymous10:57 PM

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    1. Charly11:04 PM

      Habló la bolsa de arepa.

  15. Anonymous11:37 PM

    Global numbers from Alto Prado voting center in Caracas center: 74% at 4:10 pm with 1 hour 50 minutes to go...


  16. Anonymous11:41 PM

    Frankfurt/ Germany, about 600 ppl went to vote at the consulat, the place of the after vote party was full with people.
    There was hope but also the opinion Maduro will win anyway. I met also a Chavista voted for Capriles - true? I never will know


  17. kernel_panic1:03 AM

    CANTV and movilnet are down. Writimg from a movistar cellphone

    1. kernel_panic1:29 AM

      Problem solved, arreaza said it had to do with them pulling the plug on CANTV fue to the hacking of maduro's twitter...really?

  18. Milonga1:06 AM

    Dano: There's a playoff between Scott and Cabrera at the Augusta Masters. Great way to spend the next half and hour or so. Beautiful scenery and lots of adrenaline. Way to go!!! Fingers crossed!

  19. Charly1:37 AM

    Daniel, do you like Albinoni?

    1. I go from Hildegard von Bingen to Philip Glass.........

    2. Charly2:28 AM


  20. "7:28

    Capriles tweets are unequivocal: he all but claims directly he has won. Daring?"

    Daniel, yo NUNCA lo había visto tan directo ni tan enérgico. Las cosas están interesantes en mi opinión.

  21. Island Canuck2:09 AM

    Looks like we finally have broken through.

    Fingers crossed that the announcement is not contrary to the results.

    1. I am waiting for the fat lady to sing.

    2. Michel Garcia2:22 AM

      In this case it's the nearly-bald lady. :-P
      Sorry! X-D

  22. Milonga2:21 AM

    Oh, God!! Three more hours to go??? Can't stand it!

  23. Dr. Faustus2:37 AM

    I can't stop smiling! I knew, just knew, that this was going to be much closer than anyone thought. Where's my brandy? No, wait, scotch on the rocks!

  24. Charly2:46 AM

    7:54 That is very good. It is high time this chavista boil that has been festering for 14 years pops out one way or another.

  25. esto se pone feo, globovision perdio senal por unos minutos y poleo twitter esta poniendo a mucha gente nerviosa

  26. Island Canuck3:51 AM

    Napoleón Bravo ‏@napoleonbravo 18m
    CAPRILES 56.79%
    MADURO 40.05%

    1. the precision by itself makes me already wince......

  27. Anonymous4:02 AM

    We are sweating bullets in Idaho!

  28. is this real?

  29. I hope your last update is true thx for all the information today

  30. Charly4:51 AM

    If Capriles is winning by 1%, how much did they steal from him. Hope he finds out next week when he runs the show.

  31. Anonymous5:07 AM

    Electronic vote means instant results. The fact they don't announce results indicates tweaking of figures...

  32. Michel Garcia5:13 AM

    Friends in El Paraíso and San Martín told me they have an electric black-out. This is interesting because the National Command of the National Guard is at El Paraíso.

  33. Anonymous5:16 AM

    I don´t think the delay has anything to do with how close the numbers are.... it´s a negotiation with the military and the PSUV about how low the advantage will be... just like in the referendum vote.

  34. Anonymous5:22 AM

    The fat lady can't stay up all night can she?

    ... cautiously opening up a bottle of chilean red ..

  35. Charly5:23 AM

    Bravo! The parasites are winning once again, mierda de pais o seria pais de mierda?.

  36. Anonymous5:26 AM

    It would be fitting that it would come down to the international votes that may make the difference...The Venezuelans who had to leave their country because of chavez.

    I personally think it is not that close but we will take what we can get. I have zero confidence in the integrity of the cne, and if they can, they will swing in maduro's favor.


  37. Tibisay was smiling...bad news!

  38. they did it...they stole the elections!!! I am so needed to be close because they knew Capriles won, and the people wouldn't take a larger marging...

  39. Charly5:59 AM

    Maduro won shit. This country is split nright down the middle. KILL THE FOCKING BASTARDS

    1. Charly6:03 AM

      sorry for the spelling: FUCKING BASTARDS

  40. Anonymous5:59 AM

    The MUD said they had all, or enough, actas... the CNE called their bluff .... now we'll see.

    1. Or is it the MUD calling the CNE bluff?

  41. Anonymous6:06 AM

    Goodbye and goodnight Venezuela. The country is headed deeper into the shitter.

  42. Anonymous6:11 AM

    Best case scenario this was fraud. Even then, no way to prove it.
    Worst case is the depressing realization that 50% of the population still thinks the acting government gives two shits about them. Truly depressing.

  43. Anonymous6:55 AM

    Fraude o no fraude, la diferencia es tan corta van a tener que contar todos los votos a mano, el psiquiatra llamó a palacio, él sabía lo que se fraguaba, los militares calladitos, yo con el corazón partido, sin consuelo, de luto por la libertad perdida. La Maga Lee

  44. Michel Garcia7:07 AM

    The problem with counting the votes is that many boxes had been stoles and the votes can easily be changed; also, there are reports of illegal voting centers where people are sting "making votes" as we speak so, basically, they can make as much chavizta votes as needed.

  45. Anonymous7:17 AM

    Did you see the Cuban flag being waved in the crowd near the front during Maduro´s victory speech?!?!?!


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