Wednesday, December 09, 2015

The 2015 results: general

Now that the CNE has finally announced the final result we can start more detailed analysis. They will be interesting and I will have a few posts on that through the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned. But first an evaluation of my own predictions.

The CNE does not publish vote count as too embarrassing for the regime, You could be sure that had the PSUV won the election, the vote count would be posted. Never mind, there are people that do so and there is a tweet on this matter:

That is self explanatory. The comment means that the gerrymandering in the end benefited the MUD, a normal occurrence as gerrymandering is designed to protect low votes but when the votes become too important in the other side then it backfires.

My predictions were as follow:
"So I am going to go with 96 seats and 16% more votes for MUD than for PSUV. Why not? As crazy as any other prediction to be found around. My optimist outcome is 18% ahead with 101 and my pessimist is 13% with 92."

I got the seats wrong but I got the spread right: 56.2-40,8 = 15,4.

I did not get the seats right because against my own instincts I had a general shift in voting pattern across the country when in fact that pattern was less than even. A stupid mistake for more opposition leaning areas even though I did give them less shift than elsewhere, but not enough. Thus the bonus seats for the opposition. An error that delights me, by the way.

At any rate, predicting the MUD-PSUV difference that close makes me quite happy. My reasons not to buy into the optimism of most pollsters was right, my knowledge of the electoral map remained sound even if weaker than for previous election due to lack of time for proper study and update. {end of back patting}

A good basis for guessing atr the next presidential election, sooner than what you may expect.... and governor due December 2016.


  1. Belated congratulations, Daniel. I never thought I'd see this day...

  2. IslandCanuck1:46 PM

    Things are really heating up with Maduro going off the deep end last night & Diosdado saying they will push through the new magistrates before January.
    Maduro also said he wouldn't accept any amnesty law.

    Another rumour floating around last night was that Padrino will be replaced as Minister of Defence by, wait for it, Diosdado.
    Wouldn't that be the icing on the cake.

    It looks like it's going to be straight downhill from here.
    Maduro & co are not going to make any economic changes and the country is facing severe problems in the months ahead.
    They will do anything in their considerable power to block any changes that the MUD attempts.

  3. Boludo Tejano3:35 PM

    They will do anything in their considerable power to block any changes that the MUD attempts.

    And then they will run a Presidential campaign based on blaming the "do-nothing Assembly" [It worked for Harry Truman in 1948, though with a rather different record and agenda compared to Chavismo.]

    1. All comes down to who the military backs. If murderously they back Maduro and clan then will be their dream of mass exodus of the people from the country. If they up hold the constitution as they see the end then good by Maduro and clan and it will not take until a referendum.


  5. Daniel, lame duck, Can the rump AN discredit or disqualify diputados in order to sink that super majority from the necessary 112 to 111? All they would need to do is remove 1....Kind of like the "Agente 99" scandal and trickery that went on about a year or two ago...


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