Monday, November 14, 2016

Divisional Perplexity in Caracas

Confused about the rather dismal "dialogue" results, and further confused by the strange reactions to these results (besides the previsible ones in Twitter from Miami demanding that we go without fault tomorrow to burn down Miraflores Palace) I have been trying to understand what the heck is going on.

In a word: divisions.

The dialogue cannot advance any faster for many reasons. First it is not a dialogue, it is a discussion about a ransom note that kidnappers have no intention to honor anyway. They want to cash the rescue and kill you at the end in case you go to the police to report the crime. That is the level of dysfunctional psychosis reached by the regime, they still think they can have an honorable career.

The second reason remains an old one. Too many inside the regime know what their fate would be if an agreement were to be signed. These people cannot be rescued under any term and thus they will do the utmost to sabotage, deny, torpedo any discussion. The most glaring case being Diosdado Cabello who keeps touring the country saying that the dialogue is going nowhere. People like him know that if an agreement is signed they can start measuring their jail cell for drapes.

A third but lesser reason is that some inside of the opposition are willing to settle more than others. But even there the regime seems unwilling to accommodate as these people will not settle for mere cash as it used to be the case in past defections from the opposition.

That is why we did not see more self congratulation from the regime than what one would have expected but also less outrage from the opposition than one would have been expecting. After all, the regime knows it has got to negotiate something, anything, and the opposition knows it has no weapons to take Maduro out so its options are limited.  It remains for us now to resume briefly the divisions in each camp.

Inside the regime right now, as it changes fast, we have the negationists, those that refuse to sit at the table. Diosdado is the leader. Then we have the negationist light who sit there because at least they know what the other guys are talking about. We can include foremost here the governor of Aragua, Tareck El Aissami, equally under investigation by the DEA. Let's note that these people will take everyone down with them, chavista or not.

We move on to the radical-psychos, those who have lost their mind long ago but feel obscurely somewhere that the gig is up and only by gaining time they may find a way out. I have named of course the Rodriguez duo who want to shoot you whenever they will be able to get away with it but meanwhile they consent just to insult you across a table.

Finally we have the razzmatazz of chavismo that goes from military that do not want to end up at The Hague to those still with a marble or two in their heads and think that maybe some negotiation may allow them to retire somewhere. At the table we have the infamous Chaderton, the best they can offer. Ain't it something?

The opposition is certainly more palatable, at least they speak in complete sentences with correct punctuation, even if it is to admit defeat.  Fortunately for them the radicals are not sitting. Maria Corina has not been invited and the arguably more organized opposition party of Venezuela, Voluntad Popular, has refused to sit down as long as Leopoldo is in jail. We do not know for sure at this point whether this is a plus for the opposition. Indeed, Voluntad Popular  can offer the excuse to stand up and leave, or be the carrot to bring the regime to a real measurable concession so as to bring VP to the table. We shall see.

There are two sets from the opposition at the table. One is old party AD of Ramos Allup, who already conceded that the Recall Election is dead, together with up comer PJ with Capriles and divisions of its own apparently. They represent the hard negotiation, with hues. The other side are the wishy-washy like governor Falcon or UNT from Zulia state. These are willing to negotiate something rather favorable for the regime, but they are not willing to go beyond a long transition. That is, the regime will have to leave power by January 2019 at the latest.  They are not doing that out of their good heart: they know very well that once VP, PJ and AD are in jail their turn will come no matter what. As such they want guarantees, in addition of help to avoid being rolled over by the other opposition parties.

So there you have. How can negotiations, already complex, advance fast when there is already such problems for each side to get their act together?  The real problem seems not to be that negotiations are slow but that the opposition negotiators give the impression that the regime is winning hands down...........

Surely something can be done as to how the message is broadcast?


  1. The dialogue has always been doomed to fail because the facilitators are three ex presidents hired by the dictatorship, and a priest sent by a communist pope who already let the world know he finds Raúl Castro to be a very nice old man.

    Unlike many of you, I'm not Catholic, so I have always seen the pope as a political figure heading a 1700 year old political/commercial/religious enterprise. As such I can see why the Vatican chose a communist to become pope at this particular point in time (although I suspect they have been surprised by his radicalism and insensitivity). Time will tell whether the gambit works out for them, but meanwhile Bergoglio is going to cause a lot of damage creating a "faux moral" cloak to provide cover for incredibly abusive, corrupt and disgraceful regimes.

    This means the MUD was maneuvered into accepting a "dialogue sponsor" who seeks its destruction. Since MUD is made up of people whose religious tendencies are quite alien to me, I really don't know what will work better for them. I think this clunky dialogue must go on and at the same time the National Assembly should continue to pass resolutions and laws which curtail the dictatorship's ability to steal, make deals, borrow money, or otherwise gain more power. It would also help if individual Venezuelans realized that any form f cooperation with the government is bound to damage their future. Anybody who tries to make an investment, improve anything, or works for the regime is betraying the country. You can try to rationalize whatever and explain you need to eat better, but it's definitely a betrayal. If you can't live there without helping the regime then you should pack up and move to Brazil or wherever you can reach.

  2. Corruption, corruption and more corruption. Whenever in doubt, in Venezuela, that's the answer.

    You think the MUD are incorruptible angels? Well, maybe you should go back to school and learn about Venezuela's deeply corrupt history, adecos, copeyanos and everyone else.

    Are all of them corrupt? Nope. Not Leopoldo, not Capriles, not MCM, Not even Henry. But the rest of the "MUD"? 80% corrupt and bribed by now, I assure you. History repeats itself.

  3. A very connected (US intelligence) wise man opened my eyes a little on the weekend as to what truly has occurred in Venezuela. I has always though Castro to be the mastermind of the Chavez uprising.
    He explained to me that Castro has always only been a puppet for Russia (former the USSR) in the war against the USA. I could go on about this but is off track, but must include that Castro is Russia's country of influence in Latin America against the USA. As to Venezuela he explained that in order to understand the mindset of Chavez and Maduro you must understand that part of the mission of Russia was not only to take over the country but systematically destroy it including the education system, food production, technology, medicine and ultimately oil production. Also to use any wealth to buy Latin American hatred to the USA. You see he explained that Russia could see all the big USA oil companies in Venezuela and oil production exploding leading to low oil prices and destruction of Russian wealth. The USA knowing Russia's part in this got involved in Ukraine and hurt trade deals with Russia, also went after Russia's ally Castro knowing they need to get Russia's influence out of Latin America.
    I wish I could have recorded him as he said so much that filled in the holes and explained so many confusing decisions. He also said Maduro is the perfect puppet for them as looks like an idiot justifying the destruction of the country. In the end stolen wealth and a promise of Russia as a place to go when all is done is all it took. Basically Venezuela is a victim of the power struggle between the USA and Russia and Russia's desperate need to have oil prices higher. Also mentioned Castro's military training and intelligence comes out of the former USSR and Russian weapons and intelligence hence operates in Venezuela.
    May have been just a crazy man but seemed to make sense to me given all that has happened.

  4. Milonga10:37 PM

    Nothing new. We´ve seen this before. Again and again. The second reason is the real one. It´s getting worse, so as much as I want to, I´m beginning to despair, feel hopeless. Real hopeless.

  5. Boludo Tejano6:48 PM

    From Fausta's blog: Chavistas against Trump?
    The Venezuelan in question is Jesús Rodríguez-Espinoza, Counsel General for the Venezuelan consulate in Chicago, who recently spoke at the Chicago branch of Act Now to Stop War and End Racism (ANSWER),

    while the rest of the speakers accused Trump of the normal litany of grievances — that he’s a racist, homophobe, misogynist and charlatan — Rodriguez said his diplomatic position forbade him from weighing in on Trump.

    “Because of my diplomatic position, I’m going to be very careful about what I’m going to say tonight,” Rodriguez-Espinoza said.

    “Before I was the Counsel General in Chicago, I was a regular citizen in Venezuela just like you, in 2002, was moved in my basement because of the attack against Hugo Chavez. Because of that I started getting involved in politics.

    Rodriguez-Espinoza said he became a supporter of Chavez after that...Rodriguez-Espinoza also claimed the current economic and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela is over-blown. “All the humanitarian crisis that you hear in the media most of that is an exaggeration. The only crisis we face is destabilization in Venezuelan oil. I’m not saying everything is perfect; I’m just saying it’s overmagnified because it’s in the interest of the most powerful countries in the world to get rid of the progressive government in Venezuela."

    International ANSWER. What a surprise.


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