Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Cassandra's narco-curse

It is hard not to be despondent in Venezuela these days. Even if the paradox is that the despondency of some translate into renewed energy. I suppose that when everything has been stolen from you, that is, your future, you may react strongly, if anything to see how many you can bring down with you.

I, for one, have been very despondent for two weeks, Well, particularly despondent I should correct. A very bad cold that drags on made things worse by making me feel guilty from not going out to any protest march for the past two weeks. Maybe I could have made an effort, but I also need to be as healthy as I can because my health affects the well being of others, like the SO.  So I read twitter and watch in horror and awe the videos of what Venezuela has turned into.

For the last two weeks, as expected, the regime has been cranking up its terror machine. They attack with excess tear gas, excess violence, more and more live bullets, even before the protest marches get the time to coalesce. But that has not been enough to stop people from taking to the streets so they notched it up. Thus they started riding their bikes into shopping centers and shot people taking refuge in there. I know it, a brother of mine was the victim of one of such attacks when two bikes with two nazional guards each burst into the CCCT mall. While he was recovering from a long march with something to drink and eat before reaching for his car back home, the bikes pushed through the glass doors and on to the court floor, driving around panicked people, shooting their pellets at random.

But it has not been enough yet, so up a notch. Now they steal while they repress. That is, they gas you while they are protected with their masks, and when your are coughing out your lungs they perform on you one or many of the following activities: frisk you, beat you up, smash you to the ground, break your camera or personal object of choice, steal your cell phone, steal your wallet and wristwatch, and who knows what else their nazified mind can come up with.

There is no need for me to describe in further details: foreign newspapers are full of such stories and pics. Get any serious time line on tweet, like mine, and be blown away by some of the videos that you will see.

And yet there are still assholes that are not getting it, that speak of dialogue, or complain that I use words such as nazi as if nothing. Will they feel better if I were to use only Fascist? Stalinist? Franquista? Castrista?  Aren't this all the final representation of the root idea? That is, totalitarianism.

I can defend myself by noticing that the root nazi does not appear in any of my chosen label words. You can find f c and t words, but no n word. I know better. But in the end it does not make any difference. People should not judge today's event with criteria of the past, just as sins of the past cannot be evaluated with morality of the present.  And yet this is what you find in reporting on Venezuela in the press and many web pages, a desperate attempt at describing the post Chavez regime with cliches from the past when what we have, in truth, is the first true modern narco state, in need of its own words for its accounting.

And for those who think that a video of police unburdening defenseless women from their wallet, watches and phones is not such a terrible deal since they were left alive and unraped, I beg to differ. The Nazis in the Russian forests did awful things just at the Communists did at the Siberian Gulags. The difference between then and now is that the streets were not crowded with people holding an Iphone in hand, ready to film the evidence. As a matter of fact the Nazi were stupid enough to document some of their horrors, something that Stalin smartly made sure it never happened.

In today's era of Facebook terror works best instilling the idea of what could happen to you if you leave home, rather than doing the actual violence. The horrors of the videos caught in Caracas streets are in fact lesser than the psychological terror that they pretend to create in the comfort of your own home. Without much success perhaps, for the time being, but not detracting from the fact that their totalitarian intent is there for all to see.

Even in my most pessimistic scenarios I did not envision a Venezuelan police beating to the ground someone without any weapon in hand, and then lower himself over his victim and search his pockets. Somehow for all my Cassandra qualities I was expecting more classical repression, more death counts.  But no, a narco state does not operate this way. Its terror is sui generis. And now Cassandra is afraid to meditate on what comes next.


  1. Anonymous3:05 PM

    From what I see, it looks very similar to June 2009 in Iran. The question is will it fold in Venezuela too when the live bullets become the new normal?

    But optimistically, from what I also see, the governments support has completely gone and they just need one last big push to clear them out for good (don't be surprised by mass defections and revisionist histories when the end is at hand).

    But how will the last big push arrive and who will deliver it?

    Option 1 is that one day the streets need to turn from June 2009 in Iran to Jan/Feb 2014 in Ukraine (but hopefully with less dead and injured). i.e. the people push past the security forces with the weight of numbers behind their surge.

    Option 2 is that sustained protests and abuses by the regime trigger enough defections and pressure before option 1 is needed. i.e. resignations are forced and new elections are genuinely held and the separation of powers of the institutions of the state are restored.

    Daniel - The reason I read your blog is because it is the only one that accurately describes the reality of living in Venezuela. When I lived in Venezuela for a year post Chavez, your's was the only blog that made sense to me based on the daily experiences I lived. I value your opinion because you have a true feel for the country (especially away from the capital, like where I lived). Assuming an optimistic take on the events that are happening these last few months, which option do you see arriving first?


    1. Anonymous6:46 PM

      "Jan/Feb 2014 in Ukraine (but hopefully with less dead and injured). i.e. the people push past the security forces with the weight of numbers behind their surge."

      That's not what happened. The security forces of the regime begin to feel that they would be scapegoated for the violence in at attempt by Yanukovych to stay in power. As this spread around, in addition to news that the protestors had got a thousand AK47s from a local depot, they abandoned their posts and disappeared.

      It was a chaotic situation, but the main point is that the people did not push past the security forces through weight of numbers. The security forces in question simply left overnight, to the surprise of all.

  2. Anonymous4:47 PM

    OMG! This is horrific, Daniel, and I pray for you and your countrymen every day. Maduro just gotta go.

    Stay strong, keep fighting for your freedom and Godspeed.

  3. My take on the Venezuelan disaster:

    The criminal regime is just trying to buy time. Until October 2018: inevitable presidential elections. (If they cancel them, or commit a gigantic fraud, hell would break lose nationally and internationally).

    They are repressing now just to keep some control n the streets. For 16 more months. That's a lot of time to "raspar la olla", and steal every million left. Plus figure out an escape plan, before 2019, when the MUD will be in power and may start to persecute the big criminals.

    They are selling cheap bonds for the same reason: to stay in power until the elections. They need money to continue bribing the corrupt military, police, sebin, and many others. Otherwise they might turn against them, and stop protecting them. A few hundred more Millions of $ remaining for their own pockets would hurt, either.

    That's my view: they are just buying time, with the repression and selling everything, so they can escape full of money by 2019. The 2018 elections is the breaking point, inevitable or catastrophic, and they must know that. So get ready for 16 more months of misery and repression, and then about 4-6 more decades of economic misery under the MUD.

    The profound damage has been done. Vzla was destroyed, at all levels, the social and moral fabric of society, "el pueblo" itself is deeply corrupt, our country is focked for a loooong, looong time, crime and corruption will not improve too much under the MUD, and the economy will take decades and decades to start healing.

    Meanwhile, get ready for next Christmas + 10 months with the criminal Chavistas in power for the above 2 reasons.

    1. With the constituyente, there will be no need for said elections. Where will these thugs go? They will do elections a la cubana.

    2. As wrote above, if the presidential elections are fraudulent or terminated, hell will break lose. To the tune of 5 million people on the streets. Egyptian style.

      If Chavistas are not 100% retarded they are planing their exit strategies after they finish raspando la olla.

  4. When you thought things couldn't get worse they do. Stay strong for yourself and your SO please!

  5. From what I see, it looks very similar to June 2009 in Iran. The question is will it fold in Venezuela too when the live bullets become the new normal?
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  6. Hopefully no country will take them when they run...Let them rot in La Tumba....


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