Monday, October 16, 2017

A grotesque electoral fraud

I knew that the regime would forge results, would commit electoral fraud, but what happened tonight is grotesque.

Venezuela has to be the ONLY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD where food scarcity, severe lack of health care, near hyperinflation levels, major street violence, living under curfew, no hope in hell for whatsoever, and the government GAINS votes. No kidding, researchers from the entire world should flock to Venezuela in the next days to study that miracle of politics. Books will be written about on how to win elections by screwing up people.

This is enough to claim electoral fraud.

Since September 14 I did write only 3 posts about today’s elections, in a rather diffident mood I would say. I was careful not to bring hopes into anyone, but also articulating a case that not taking part in these elections would be worse than boycotting them. Thus I am proven right. More right than I thought actually since the introductory paragraph of the last post explains tonight perfectly. The regime has simply decided to act nakedly as a dictatorship, even if many countries warned the regime that they knew it would commit fraud.

The regime did not even pretend, like, say, imagine, with a fifty/fifty result. No, it gave only 5 out of 23 for the opposition, confirming that we are in a new neo-communist type of electoral system, where votes for the opposition are in significant percentages, but the result is nearly 100% in favor of the regime (see the 100% for the illegal constituent assembly of July, or the scandalous 80% today).

Even if we make the case for opposition errors like not fielding their best candidates (too many AD, Ismael Garcia in Aragua, idiotic division in Amazonas) to explain part of the failing, the results of today have glaring inconsistencies. To begin with, the landslide of 2015 is reverted although no reasonable explanation can be advanced. True, there was disruptive protests this year that were not vocally followed in popular class neighborhoods (for a variety of reasons more than from lack of support). But material dissatisfaction is not only here, but it is worse, much worse than in 2015. One could buy that the regime did recover somewhat courtesy of excessive protest. But flip the thing over, and some more? Give me a break.

Even the results are funny where the opposition won. Margarita with only 51%? Or lost in say Miranda or Carabobo. Besides Tachira where Vielma Mora was beyond rescue, the other 4 wins are all around 2% whereas the chavista victories vary more. One even wonders if the opposition victory of Zulia was allowed because the regime wanted to get rid of Arias Cardenas. Same thing for the opposition win in Anzoategui against Aristobulo Isturiz, seen with suspicion by too many radicals inside the regime as one guy that could sit down and negotiate with the opposition. A nice way to purge Chavez holdovers in favor of Maduro/Cabello faithful.

But let’s not waste time discussing results that are meaningless, that will not be recognized by the opposition (I hope) nor by the foreign countries. The point here is where the opposition goes from here.

It accepts the results and thus you can forget about any future election. The beast will have been tamed and the regime will not even need to commit fraud again: the opposition will never be able to mount a significant electoral challenge. Worse, foreign countries will see that as a weakness of the opposition, as a “return” to democracy” and thus will drop their pressure on the regime.

It refuses the results and has the guts to deal with the consequences of that.

What will it be?


  1. R. Saravia - luckily living in Miami5:44 AM

    Wow what a genius you are, if you may say so yourself. LOL

    So you think that now, finally, at long last, the regime showed its totalitarian face. It took you this long genius? Seventeen years were not enough for you.

    Now I can't wait for a post about your brilliant strategy for next year's elections ...

    1. You are an asshole. This blog was one of the first pages to call the regime a dictatorship, years ago, well before it became fashionable elsewhere.

      But of course that would require you to be a regular reader; and it is so much more fun to comment-bomb the writer from the comfort of Miami.

      Asshole (repetition intended).

  2. Daniel, ignore Saravia post. I guess none of us surprised by election results, given those in control of electoral system. Where to from here ? I'm guessing that, eventually, some large percentage of the Chavista base will turn on Maduro......producing changes in the Chavista movement, it's leadership, it's direction, and possibly in where the loyalty of some strands of the armed forces resides. Like the bone dry hillsides in the wine country of California, an errant spark can seriously affect what presently exists. I would love to visit Venezuela but will wait, and wait, and wait, until eventually it becomes visitable.

    1. Anonymous7:31 AM

      Tannin please stop, you are depressing everyone even more than we already are.

    2. Anonymous5:38 PM

      There are Chavistas in our midst, disguising as opposition.

  3. IslandCanuck12:00 PM

    Dictatorships don't leave with votes.
    This result was predictable when they went ahead anyway facing a huge defeat. I was betting that they would cancel it at the last moment but a huge fraud works just as well.
    Who can you go to to correct a fraud. In a normal country you have back-up systems like the courts but not in Venezuela.
    It will be interesting to see where the black market dollar goes this week after this blatant robbery.

    Savaria you are indeed an asshole.

    1. "Dictatorships don't leave with votes"
      Unfortunately the opposition has no fire power.

  4. It will go on as it goes now. Even the 2.x billion US dollars which needs to be paid in the next couple of month will be found somewhere. Only thing left is to leave Venezuela.

  5. The results don't really matter. After packing the judiciary and that constituent assembly move, they proved they didn't care what people thought. Democracy is dead in Venezuela, end of story.

    Aside from the drug trade, every industry is either dead or dying, even oil. The Union of National Workers says 3.5 million jobs have been lost since Maduro was bestowed, while the rest of the world has been recovering. Does anyone even remember the taste of fresh milk or Venezuelan coffee with cream and sugar. I guess it's good that the less you eat the less toilet paper you need.

    Sure, plenty will leave. But, ironically, as poverty grows so do populations, exacerbating the situation. How will Maduro feed 40 million Venezuelans? There is only one possible outcome, collapse. Quick and painful, or slow and painful.

    Then and only then, when nobody is regulating everything, farms and ranches and mines and factories will return.

    Corruption comes from control, no matter what type of system.(capitalist, communist, Marxist, anarchy) There will always be some corruption, so the minimal amount of control to keep the system running will have the least amount of corruption.

    1. Agree w/you 100%: Total collapse is the only way out of this tragedy...

  6. Fede Toro6:12 PM

    Daniel I have been reading your great blog for years but never commented. I used to live near Vereda del Lago and work in the oil industry now I live near Dallas.
    I have to tell you though, your calling the abstentionists idiots the other day reminded me of Hillary here calling opponents deplorables.
    I was completely turned off as I think that abstaining in a corrupt voting environment is a sensible strategy. They are/were not idiots by any means.
    Now today you use the term a-hole to someone who asks a very sensible question, what will you do in next years elections? are you going to vote again, and again, and again? Or are you going to join the army of the idiots.
    Please don't call me an a-hole, I an a big fan, but you have to recognize that having the opposition participate in the election did give this elections a patina of legitimacy. Now people like this current Pope will be able to say, Maduro is legitimate, the opposition is minority, the Venezuelan people have spoken and what they say is they want more of what they are getting.

    So what next, in my opinion the only solution is to storm the castle. Guns or no guns.

    1. Hillary was right to call them "deplorable" even though not PC. The events that followed validated her position.

      As for abstentionism to claim victory today is disingenuous at best. So, is Burelli coming back to Venezuela with Francescqui to lead the last march straight to Miraflores?

      Me think not.

    2. And no, your comment may disagree with me but it is worded in an appropriate way. There is no need for me to call you by any name.

      And I thank you for being a regular reader.

    3. Anonymous6:39 PM

      Daniel, I almost agree with Fede. Specifically, the MUD was put in a terrible position when HRA accepted the election challenge. Following the 30Jul obvious fraud, and with significant and growing international support, for HRA to do that was throwing El Bravo Pueblo under the bus, again.

      Where to,go from here? Further down. Just by participating in the election provides a patina of legitimacy as a democracy, despite cries of fraud. How will el pueblo ever ftrust the MUD again?


  7. Electoral fraud has existed in Venezuela since Chavez used government coffers to buy the ignorants' votes. The only way out since then has been a full scale revolution by the majority but the regime has brilliantly and systematically taken the fight out of the people. The opposition has never had a chance as they have always thought they were fighting against inferior people who were fumbling around with incompetence when in actuality the people behind the scenes pulling the regime's strings is twice as smart as the opposition and has stolen the country. You can bet too that Chavez was given his cancer as believed too much in him self and didn't follow his masters with the loyalty expected of him.
    Whats ahead for Venezuela is extreme misery to drive out all that will leave followed by slow improvements that will look wonderful after such extreme suffering. Russia will ultimately control and reap the rewards of the oil fields. The only way any of this changes is if the USA gets a true leader who is not for sale and they say enough is enough, but that is unlikely too.

  8. Anonymous7:13 PM

    The Constituent Assembly and now this elections are masterstrokes. The opposition is dead and the people have lost all hope of change. Yes Cuba and Russia are probably pulling the strings. Venezuela is lost, I'm afraid.


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