Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Falcon Crest? Millennium Falcon? The Maltese one?

Good news guys, the inscription for presidential election is over, we know all the names. They are all chavistas.  Even if the propaganda network TeleSur says without blushing that the opposition has registered ITS candidate under the name of Henri Falcon.

So many things wrong with that picture......
More tan anything else the smiling face of Tibisay Lucena is going to kill any chances of Henri Falcon. Never mind that in another picture they actually hugged.  See, if you are late in the game, Tibisay Lucena as the head of the electoral board CNE was the numero uno reason why the dialogue/negotiation in Santo Domingo failed.  But who cares, really?

So Maduro has the field he wanted ahead of him. I think 3 non entities, a preacher and Henri Falcon anointed by TeleSur and state media as THE opposition candidate. Never mind that the opposition alliance MUD decided not to run and that Henri Falcon was certainly not chosen through primary or any other type of mechanism.  But who cares, really?

Besides being now near unanimously reviled by the opposition, made the worse through his cosines with Tibisay, Falcon has absolutely no credibility from the start. Why? He lost his reelection bid in Lara last October.  That is right, he failed to be reelected in his home state, by a not insignificant margin and three months later he wants to run for national office.  But who cares, really?

In fact many care.  To begin with Maduro cares. Falcon was the ideal candidate to run "against" him. As an ex chavista he is perceived by them as a traitor so he is the least likely of the opposition candidates to peel away from Maduro chavista core vote. True, many chavistas have voted for Falcon but those were never the hard core chavistas who always kept voting against him in Lara.  And now that the Falcon betrayal of the MUD is made official I predict that he will not get much more than a couple of hundred thousand votes, if he stays in the race until the end.  Even if by miracle the MUD were to decide to back him within the next few weeks there will not be enough time to generate adequate enthusiasm for Falcon, that needed enthusiasm to staff with witnesses all polling stations in Venezuela as the only way to limit the extent of chavismo fraud. He has 0 chances of winning. Zero. Nada.  Unless Maduro dies, a revolution or some dark matter cosmic event that propels him.

Some inside the MUD also care about Falcon run.  Those are the ones that somehow think that the regime can be beaten in an unsupervised election of epic unfair rules and they are too afraid that Falcon may pull the stunt.  Yes, it is amazing but there are those inside the MUD, after 20 years....

But reality is that nobody is going to pay much attention to Falcon inside the MUD. As of today his political career is all but over. So why did Falcon run anyway? 

There is always the hubris clause, and of that he has shown a lot already, not understanding why Lara rejected him, feeling a victim when in fact people took him into account. But as an ex chavista in truth Falcon is not quite comfortable with the expression "personal accounting".

There is also the revenge against the MUD. After all it is clear that he would not win any primary against inside the MUD. So might as well try something desperate outside.  IF he does well enough, say 10%, he could leverage this into a seat back at the MUD table.  But I doubt it, I do not share his kind of hubris.

There is always the conspiracy theory that Falcon has registered so as to withdraw at some point in favor of X.  Yeah, right...

Alternatively his hubris makes him do that to become a "transition" figure....

Or that knowing his career is pretty much over he has accepted to be some kind of Trojan horse at the service of Maduro. Chavismo will pay for his campaign because they need him to pull enough votes to make the reelection of Maduro credible. Unfortunately to even consider some credibility the regime would have to manufacture at least 30% of votes for Falcon. Honestly, do you think that chavismo would manufacture a single vote for Falcon?  At this point it is more feasible for chavismo to print enough votes for Maduro to get 65% (which he has already announced) than to bother about what happens with the other candidates.

And of course, chavismo paying for his campaign will allow for Falcon to cash in enough to ensure him and his family a comfortable retirement outside of Venezuela..... Sue me!

In short, Falcon is the latest installment of chavismo theatrics, or rather, vaudeville.

The Millenium Falcon cryptically covered in chavista red foulard.
Coincidence?  Me thinks not.


  1. Yeah, I am with you on the side that Falcon is a Maduro plant. I have said since he joined MUD that he is just a spy/plant of Chavismo. Maybe at some point they will use their fraudulent election system to have Henri win as the opposition, giving the regime 6 more years under the same people pulling Maduro's strings and having much of the world give him a chance/support to rebuild. Bloody brilliant if they are planning that.
    As I said before the opposition and the world opposed to the regime should unite under a common theme that if this election goes ahead without true fairness that the only recognized body left in Venezuela that the world will deal with is the properly elected NA and that no election including a new NA will be recognized. That the only way forward the world will recognize would be an election organized and overseen by the truly elected NA.

  2. "He has 0 chances of winning. Zero. Nada."

    Unless... there's a brilliant Troyan Horse move, highly unlikely, yet not unimaginable: as the most macabre scenario:

    (see comment section)

  3. " So why did Falcon run anyway?"

    Henri Camaleon ran because:

    1/ Bribed, a cool 1 Million US$ should suffice for that scoundrel, just for playing fake opposition as Daniel suggests.

    AND/or 2/ To build his political imagine for later, after the mega-fraud, when Rex and the USA strangle Maduro and cut off the only legal cash the regime gets, 35 Million US$/Day for oil, and if that's not enough, if the mega-drug trade is enough to keep Maduro and his Generals in power, decapitated Noriega style, overnight flash, Seal team 6. Then Falcon would be in the scenario again, as the "opposition guy" who dared.. (plus the 1 Million $ stashed away wouldn't hurt)

    AND/Or 3/ Something in between, as a sophisticated Castro-Chavista Troyan Horse, a carte blanche for the Narco-Criminals to flee, and leave the ultimate mess to the MUD..

  4. Charly1:58 AM

    One of the biggest thief to roam the countryside to the point that Reyes Reyes had once to ask him to put a soft pedal on all of his bribe schemes when he was mayor of Bqto. It was too much even for the Chavistas in those days.

  5. It is likely the regime is attempting to build Falcon up as the opposition so when things get desperate the regime can hand the reins over to him and pretend the regime is done when it will be the same under a different head piece.

  6. Now experts are claiming zero was raised through the petro currency offering.

  7. what idiot signed this, Falcon's party?

  8. Falcon is the Regime...there is no doubt.
    The comedic factor here is it's debated...the other comedic factor? The Regime has Succeeded in kidnapping the MUD without a fight....facón is now the face of the MUD?!?!?!........lmfao


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