Monday, March 04, 2019

Guaidó 1; regime 0; foreign press out.

And thus Juan Guaidó returned to Venezuela. Through the normal entry point in Maiquetia airport.  He went in a triumphant caravan all the way to Caracas to attend a rally. That caravan and rally were immense. And more succesful than whatever show the regime had attempted to put up previous days to make us believe that carnival holiday was joyful, reflecting a happy and content nation.

In short it was a major defeat for chavismo that had to bow to international pressure, and to a popular will favoring Guaido for which denial is now useless.  True, several ambassadors were waiting for Guaidó in Maiquetia to shepherd him to Caracas. But had the regime wanted to arrest Guaidó it would have done so at customs, away from public glare, packing Guaidó in a helicopter to wherever.

The fact of the matter is that the regime caved in, at least for now.  Contrary to what  many said, that the February 23 battle of Cucuta showed the resilience of Maduro, that battle was lost by the regime. Guaidó is the one imposing the agenda. His scene on the highway to Caracas when his caravan stopped in front of public housing to let Guaidó climbing on a car and wave the flag in front of a delirious crowd had a taste of the nails being planted on the regime's coffin.

One of the amazing things for me following this from afar was how the press began slowly to bury Guaidó because he was unable to force the entry of the humanitarian aid.  Was he? Nobody serious in Venezuela expected the aid to enter.  We all knew that it was a show of strength, that the objective was elsewhere. How could so many papers, from the NYT down be so gullible as to write up for some that Maduro was resilient, that the opposition was on its way to yet another big disappointment and what nonsense.

True, that battle to unseat the regime is far from won, but I am almost willing to find it somewhat suspicious for some US papers to be hinting to a premature Guaidó burial least Trump would be seen as scoring a point. I see this ship sailed.

Now you can read many of them on Twitter tonight talking of a "pendulum" or some other flimsy explanation.  Can't wait for the brainy exculpatory articles tomorrow.
Since January 5 the opposition has had a strategy that it has remarkably followed.  Guaidó was the one who decided to bite the bullet and take all risks.

For whatever reason they all went along. For whatever reason it has worked out so far.  He is collecting all the glory, but he is maybe a minute away from a bullet.  All par for the course.

The ill perceived failure of February 23 was not so. Guaidó was doing EXACTLY what he was supposed to do, rounding up support for the next  move, taking advantage of the true vileness the regime was willing to display at Cucuta.  Contrary to what many thought, expected, hoped for, Guaidó was not looking for a cozy exile spot, he was preparing his next moves, the one today being only the first one.






22 comments:

  1. Guiadó is obviously well-coached. Notably by his friend and mentor, LL. But let's not kid ourselves, Feb 23rd was a set back: The Military did not switch sides, and is still on Maduro's corner, the corrupt Armed Forces are the problem. Evidently the 2000+ "Generals" in charge, the ones with the guns, the troops and the true power, evidently do not but into the "amnesty" and carte blanche bluffs by Guaido and the US. They are scared to death of going to jail and lose their fortunes. Obviously. And THAT is the the problem. They are Criminals, wounded beasts, and will not go down easy.

    Perhaps in a few more years with Chavismo still there, people will understand the simple fact that these Criminals can only be kicked out by sheer FORCE, military, of course, and that it ain't coming from within.

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    Replies
    1. "and that it ain't coming from within" But why not another "Caracazo"?

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  2. I love it especially after the lemming left crowing about Maduro's victory (Can a lemming crow? Hummm!):
    https://zeroanthropology.net/2019/02/24/fake-humanitarianism-fails-its-big-test-in-venezuela/

    What I find amazing in all of that is that the regime has lost the script and is only reacting to what comes its way. That is a bad omen.

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  3. Although tough to swallow, I always find it useful to read the regime's propaganda articles as they often tell the plan of the regime. Today on Sputnik is an article saying that Maduro is finished and within 2 to 4 weeks he will be done. And that the movement needs to create a 3rd option such that the people ha e a viable regime option forward other then Maduro or Guaido. Point is when the Russian propaganda is painting the picture that Maduro is a dead horse and finished you know it is true and his end is near.

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    1. https://www.google.com/amp/s/sputniknews.com/amp/analysis/201903051072961217-venezuela-maduro-crisis/

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    2. Mike B1:02 AM

      Thanks for that link. It gives a different perspective from a US point of view. Our press only writes about how bad Trump is. There’s no strategic reporting anymore. Every story has to link back to ‘Trump is literally Hitler/Satan/Mussolini etc.’

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  4. It seems Russia and China are ready to roll over on the regime, the issue is that Guaido does not have the ability to negotiate with them to ensure they come out of this with their debts honoured and oil field positions preserved. Guaido is simply in a position to return the country to democracy and cannot speak on behalf of it.

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  5. By the way, I tried to share the link to this article in a FB group I'm in, and FB said it "goes against their community rules". I sent them a nice message telling them that it does NOT, unless TRUTH goes against their rules. As we all know it does, but I said my piece, nevertheless.

    Thanks for keeping the outside informed with your inside observations!

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  6. People outside continue to talk as this is about Junta A vs Junta B and its leaders rather than, the last branch of government elected in fair elections with a majority opposing the two other branches that have exceeded their constitutional powers.

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  7. Thanks Daniel. FYI, the main stream press in the US is pretty much against Maduro failing as it can be seen as ‘Socialism’ failing. That would be seen as a victory for Trump who is the main stream press’ worst enemy. Most of the US press and some legislatures refuse to call him a ‘dictator’ too. Not surprised Facebook bans anything anymore. It’s becoming a joke for anything but posting pictures of your pets and family.

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  8. Boludo Tejano2:12 AM

    A lefty/PSF/Russian article on the situation had an interesting comment about Guaidó's being permitted to enter the country: his needing the assistance of European embassies to enter the country showed his weakness. But nothing about what Maduro's backing down said about Maduro.

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  9. So now Guaido will continue talking, and the "international community" will keep "condemning" the Regime, and they will ban a few more Chavista corruptos, freezing assets they have hidden elsewhere while they laugh.

    They will continue organizing futile street protests, while Tons of Humanitarian Aid sit at the border, blocked by the laughing Regime.

    As months, possibly years go by, talk, talk, talk, cacerolazo, talk, talk, "condemnation", talk talk talk, while Cabello, Maduro and Delcy laugh out loud and the 2000 "Generals" keep getting even richer.

    Vamos bien, Muy bien.. igualito que Cuba.

    Will they EVER comprehend the simple fact that the only way out is through MILITARY FORCE? Apparently not. Perhaps in a coupe years...

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  10. Sledge, where will you find military force? Who is coming? No one, that’s the answer. It will have to be Venezuelan going in, whether from outside or from within.

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    Replies
    1. Guess we'll find out in 2 or 3 more years, while Maduro is still dancing with la primera combatiente. Meanwhile, enjoy the politicians' talk, talk, talk, and the useless, laughable "condemnations" from the "international community".

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    2. Then again, if the US revokes 1000 more visas, and the "international community" freeze a few more bank accounts, Chavismo will surely fall very soon, like in 2050.

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    3. Again that's not the point. Juan guaido doesn't have the power to get an army to get in. The USA doesn't have the support to get in. And the lima group doesn't want to send troops even though it's in their best interest. I agree the political movement isn't really changing anything. But what can one do. All Venezuelans want a military solution,. But without any countries willing to come in there is no point wasting time posting that one needs a military solution. Everyone knows. That guaido tried to get military support and failed. So now gotta try another method. What else can one do?

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  11. As I write this comment, large portions of Venezuela are without electricity and the communications infrastructure is operating in a limited capacity.
    In the short term this may help the regime. The inability to communicate will negatively impact the opposition's ability to organize the protests.
    I expect that the people will still protest in large numbers and that the regime is becoming weaker every day.
    Russia and China will only pay lip service to the Maduro regime. The collapsing oil infrastructure has made it an impossibility for the regime to pay its current debt with either of these "supporters". Likewise there is very little left for Cuba to siphon off from the Cuban regime to sustain itself. In Cuba's case, the parasite has consumed the host.
    It may be that the countries that recognized Juan Guaido as the legitimate President of Venezuela, needed to make that determination in order to halt the Maduro regime's access to Venezuelan government funds in these countries. The funds held outside of Venezuela would most likely be somewhere other than Russia or China. The regime would run a risk of Russia or China seizing any funds on deposit in their respective countries to apply against the outstanding debts of the regime.
    Money talks. Right now the Russians and Chinese want their money.
    The National Assembly is required to approve the countries borrowing. PDVSA in all aspects is an arm of the government and not a separate independent entity. This gives Guaido the carrot to dangle in front of Russia and China. Debt restructuring and legitimate debt will be one of the first issues any post Maduro government will have to address.
    Russian and Chinese officials understand that the Maduro regime is incapable of repaying any debts and will only be able to maintain power if they make huge contributions to the regime.
    Without any influx of funds, the regime will not be able to feed the soldiers, let alone the fat generals.
    The Maduro regime is finished. The only unanswered question is when and how much carnage will be left in their wake.

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    1. In total agreement. Now to just send them to jail. Hopefully the Guantanamo one

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    2. Although a lot of what you say John is true parts are not. Guaido has no power other then to call an election. Whoever wins that election will be in a position to lead Venezuela to negotiate debt repayment to Russia and China. If Guaido had the power to offer Russia and China a way out while getting their debts repaid and their oil investments to continue to belong to them Maduro would already be out. Hence they fight to keep him in power until they feel confident that whoever takes over power will honour their deals. They know well most who come to power from the opposition will see that they aided and embedded the regime in hurting the people and the country.

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  12. Maduro and clan must love these protests. Pits the military against the people such that they lose human feelings toward them and exhausts all their energy they might do something constructive with like an actual revolt. You would think by now the opposition would have learned that these marches lead to only one thing and that is the people losing hope in the opposition.
    Give the marches a purpose like lets March to the border food depots and get all the free food and medicine you can carry. Result would be not only a win for the opposition but the collectivos and the military joining in.

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  13. The Opposition has another option that hasn't really been discussed. Guaido could order one million people to the streets to take Miraflores. In this option, there would be deaths, possibly in the hundreds. It would be chaotic and messy. But it would succeed through sheer mass of numbers. And if it were accompanied by a presidential order for all of the generals to step down and for the colonels to assume command, it could even be accomplished with at least partial assistance by the military.

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  14. Sad but true. I have thought a march on the seat of power and a definitive resolution was the only way. Now that Daniel is out of the country I can say so. The AN is the only actual government. Get a million people in the streets and roll over the bums. People will march for that but not for demonstrations that torn back at first whiff of tear gas. Easy for me to say but do you have a better idea.

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