I am still here even though three months, almost, have passed since my last post (more on that later).
I could not let pass the present troubles in Latin America without a comment. I read so many idiocies on Tweeter that I needed to vent off by reminding people that what has been going on is not such a surprise. The surprise is that it comes all at once. So here, from North to South.
The administration of Lopez Obrador has shown its true color when not only it was woefully unprepared to counter the very powerful drug cartels, but preferred to release the captured son of El Chapo rather than send in the army.
No surprise there, Lopez Obrador has been all bull shit since the start, preferring non intervention and peace and demagoguery rather than face what is going on in Northern Mexico. I am not saying he could solve that problem easily, I am saying that his administration thought it could put it on a back burner. Until it blew up in their face.
Now let's see how he recovers. If he can. Poor Mexico!
This is simple/ every administration has encountered the brick wall of powerful indigenous organizations that exist in the Ecuadorean Andes. These movement are so powerful that they overthrew at least two presidents and even gave a hard time to Correa (who they hate, by the way).
Applying clumsily needed economic reforms unleashed their ire. To save his seat president Lenin Moreno had to leave Quito in flames and take refuge in Guayaquil. Cowardice? Not at all. Moreno played well the difference between administrative Quito and Guayaquil, business oriented, economic center of Ecuador, and much less influenced by indigenous people. He let them run out of steam burning a few things in Quito and then eventually all had to seat down to negotiate. His package will not go as planned but through calculated delays the economic reforms will pass.
That is LatAm democracy for you.
This is even simpler. The Chavez left simply does not want to leave power, ever. In particular when they hold it in countries were monkey drug business was rather easy. I have named Bolivia, Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, for starters.
So Evo Morales decided that it was better for him to perpetrate electoral fraud rather than leave through the main door as one of the great reformers of the continent, and indigenous to boot. But I guess that giving up on the perks of office was too much for him. Thus becoming another bloody tin pot dictator was not a hard choice for Evo.
And so we reach the truly complex situation. I am not going to go on how the shiny star of LatAm development is on the verge of committing suicide in less than a week.
I am just going to say that Chile always had a strong and radicalized communist party, always on the watch for such an opportunity. The opportunity came, they did not waste it. The end result may be held in the hands of the democratic (?) socialists who are afraid to condemen the excesses and give a hand to Piñera to bring peace again. But the socialists know they cannot return to office without the communists vote. So there you go, the seed of all trouble, up to civil war if the communists feel like it.
A COMMON THREAD?
I have read all sorts of speculation on Maduro regime in Caracas financing all of these troubles. This is B.S. : Venezuela and Cuba do not have the money or organization it takes to conduct such a simultaneous multi pronged offensive.
Cuba, financed by Venezuelan oil, has been always preparing revolutionary cadres, sleeping cells and the like (in particular in Bolivia where the evidence of Venezuelan direct intervention exists).
The embassies are centers of formation and contacts. Propaganda vehicles exist numerous, like Telesur that president Moreno had to close when outright indications were sent to rioters in Ecuador. Parallel financing exists through drug traffic amply associated to Cuba and Venezuela.
Cuba and Venezuela by themselves cannot create the riots of Quito and Santiago, but they surely can contribute to their spread and violence.
Piñera was right, it is a war though he cannot use that as an excuse for his own failings: he should have known better.
There, end of informative rant. See you soon.