Carta abierta a Michele Bachelet, ex presidenta y candidata a la presidencia de Chile

Estimada (ex)-presidenta Bachelet

Me permito escribirle por que me parece que usted manejo mal el asunto de la visita intempestiva de Henrique Capriles a Chile. Entiendo muy bien que para usted él llega como pelo en la sopa, sin haber preparado debidamente su viaje. No se extrañe, desde el pasado mes de abril el ha cometido varios errores de “timing” como dicen los norteamericanos. Pero eso no la exime a usted de no comportarse como una estadista. Usted será la candidata presidencial a la reelección, pero también usted es una ex presidente y se espera que en ciertos asuntos se comporte como una estadista y no como una mera política buscando votos.

SADA, SICA and more ways to rob a hard working corporation: Cargill and Polar the latest victims

Yesterday the Chavez government stole 120 tons of food stuff from Polar (in English here).  Today it stole 173,000 liters of cooking oil from Cargill.  Both robberies were perpetrated by the same Nazional Guard General, Bohorquez, who lamely says that the seized items will be sold in Barquisimeto through the recently nationalized EXITO hypermarkets, and of course the Mercal/PDVAL system.  That these unjustified seizures will benefit the Barquisimeto people while bringing food shortages to those living around who depend on the Barquisimeto warehouses for their supply does not seem to perturb Bohorquez.  He simply says:

"Presumo que hay acaparamiento, que hay boicot a fin de evitar que éstos productos llegue a la familia venezolana" [I] presume that there is hoarding, that there is boycott to prevent these products items to reach the Venezuelan table.  [that guy does not even know the difference between boycott and hoarding, another example of chavismo general willful ignorance of word meaning]

Then again this is a country where the Caracas people are spared the electricity shortages which mean more severe shortages of light outside of Caracas than what they should be called for; but i digress.

How was this possible and why?

Piñera to back Insulza for OAS chair. And what else did you expect?

Sebastian Piñera, president elect of Chile, has decided to back the reelection of discredited OAS Secretary Jose Miguel Insulza because "It is a State Policy", meaning that the only reason he backs him is that Insulza is from Chile and as a state, no matter how lousy Insulza is, a Chilean president cannot not back him up.

Some of my dear friends are shocked, but why are they that surprised even if the ethics of such support truly suck?

What Chavez never did

I have long ago stopped economic posts because, well, Miguel and Quico take care of this much better than what I could do. But that I took upon other tasks such as electoral analysis does not stop me from on occasion point out to the essential.

The New York Times carries today an article on how Michelle Bachelet was able to turn around a presidency that started very shakily into a 70% favorable popularity opinion a few months before she leaves office. Why? How?

Very simple: when copper prices were high during the commodities boom that lasted until the mid of last year, she set aside a large portion of the income for rainy days.

What is notable is that her administration managed to place in sovereign funds 20 billion USD. If to this you add that Chile is an export driven economy fueled by agriculture added value products (wine comes to mind and summer fruits in the US during its winter) you can understand that when the crisis came Chile indeed suffered, but not as much as other countries. Today Chile is hoping to get back next year into the 5% growth range, which is enough to finish to pull it off third world status very soon, and certainly earlier than any South American country. Some people might argue that Chile is already out of this category but it is not as its technological sector is not quit there yet, as well as its per capita GNP. Also Chile is still vulnerable to political adventurers such as the growth in polls of Enriquez-Ominami whose changing positions and media based program makes me nickname him Origami as a more appropriate name for an all show, no substance politician.

In short, Bachelet did all that Chavez did not want to do and as such she is high in polls just as Chavez is finally starting his long overdue slide into polling inferno.

Think about for a second: just out of copper Chile managed to save 20 billion, a commodity that does not compare whatsoever with oil. Had Chavez been a little bit more careful, imagine how much he could have actually placed in sovereign bonds without much trouble. 40? 60? 100? billions and with less effort than what surely had to do so create this piggy bank. Even more telling is that Chile today is a net creditor just as Venezuela is issuing yet another set of questionable bond issues, increasing dangerously its debt burden.

But what is even less forgivable when we look at Chavez balance is that he has damaged so much the Venezuelan productive apparatus, in particular agriculture, that now 95% of our exports are oil, and we import at least half of our food. It bears to recall that in Venezuela agriculture should be easier than in Chile since with adequate irrigation it could provide for year round production of some items. Nobody, in an oil producing country , is expecting that we export more food than what we import, but we could at least demand that we do not eat our oil, literally. You know where the oil money spent on food ends, do you?

The final irony here is that as we, an energy rich country, are facing major power blackouts for the next few years, Chile, an energy poor country, announces that its electricity output went up by 2% over the last 12 months.

-The end-

Chavez versus the Chilean Senate

The latest spat between Chile and Chavez is much more telling than what some would think. But first, let me remind folks that it is not Venezuela's foreign policy, it is Chavez and thus the spat is between Chavez and Chile.

The Chilean Senate, without the socialist votes, decided to ask President Bachelet to protest the closing of RCTV as a violation of freedom of expression. Chavez rudely replied by saying that the Senate majority vote represented a bunch of old time fascists. It is not a waste of time to remember that the Chilean Senate majority of that vote is also an electoral majority duly and freely voted, certainly voted much more freely and democratically than the current 100% monochromatic monster in Venezuela that surrendered what little power to legislate it had to Chavez. President Bachelet, a socialist, decided to protest (Spanish and English links). I think her protestation was not strong enough, but it was at least clear and should shame her socialist brethren that should have known better than to applaud the closing of a free media for the reasons that are advanced. There are reasons why a media should close, but those do not exist in the RCTV case.

What people do not realize in this spat is that the target of Chavez is not Bachelet or even the Senate of Chile. He knows he cannot count on her although her leftist heart tends to try to be forgiving of his excess. We can remember her hesitation at supporting Venezuela for a seat at the UN security council, and hesitation so clumsy that it forced her into an embarrassing abstention vote.

Chavez knows one thing, Bachelet will be out in 3 years and she is already a weakened president when you consider that she is subject to a deteriorating social climate. Chavez is in fact already working for the post Bachelet era. By insultingly so loudly the Chilean Senate he has declared all of democratic Chile his enemy and is forcing the socialists to chose his way or risk break up among themselves. What Chavez is aiming is to a troubled end of Bachelet presidency that will cause the raising of a leftist pro-Chavez leader that might have a chance to take the next elections.

I do not see it happening, Chile is a more stable and prosperous country than Venezuela when he came to power, but Chavez does not know that nor does he care. If the successor of Bachelet is not to his liking then he will wait for another four years. He does not care; he will still be president of Venezuela. Along the way he will crucify Bachelet if he needs to do, just as he is crucifying the real left, including the historical Venezuelan Communist Party, that was with him but who happened to have very minimal differences with him.

Chileans should be very wary of this latest spat and read the writing on the wall. Trouble is heading their way. Uribe for all his merits is not a very palatable guy as the civil war he wages would have eaten alive less worthy contenders. Alan Garcia in Peru is damaged goods anyway. Kirchner is a truant and Lula has his own problems. All of these countries have flaws but Chile does not. Chile is the success story of Latin America and Chavez in his new offensive has decided to turn against Chile. He cannot afford to have Chile shown as the counter example of his misery generating system, hidden behind an avalanche of petrodollars.

The Chilean Senate has given Chavez the perfect opportunity to start his anti Chile campaign. The Senate might not have intended this but it does not know how right that rather fortuitous moment was. Bachelet and the rest of Chile should meet him head on because of they do not they will be all swallowed in the vortex that Chavez will create if allowed to do so. It is a golden opportunity for Chile, who is still a very safe county, to take the democratic lead in Latin America. There is no need to attack Chavez, just to be firm and not let him get away with international vulgarity. Do not worry, chavistas will keep buying Chilean wine, they grew a liking for it now that they can afford the most expensive bottles.

-The end-