THE WAY WE WERE (in East Germany?)
August 16, 2003
In his search of any possible credit to restore his image, the Chavez administration is not afraid to use old recipes that were once useful under different skies.
These past two weeks the Dominican Republic hosted the Pan-American games. If these games do not hold the attention of the world, being basically a competition between many second line US athletes and Cuba first line ones, they still are important for the rest of South America where the medal repartition that really means something are the bronze an silver. I do not mean this to belittle the games, but the fun part is to see all the silver medals that go to countries that otherwise would be absent in an world class event.
Venezuela is one of these countries that do well there, while in the Olympics we might leave without a single bronze medal. It does happen that Venezuela is a minor power in the Pan-American Games where it fights for a position between 6 and 10, our main rivals being Argentina, Colombia and Mexico. This makes the competition fun to watch.
Last night, in one of those moments that never fail to show up in such games, the Venezuelan volley ball team did the Cinderella thing, beating 2 days ago favorite Brazil to go on to the final and beat defending champion Cuba, who earned its berth by previously beating the US. An a clear victory at that, 3 to 0. A cheap feel good moment that I could not miss, even if volley ball is far from being a favorite of mine.
So far so good. But as soon as the victory was acquired, the state TV who holds the retransmission rights, linked the team captain with Chavez over a cell phone. Chavez, by the way, being in Paraguay. Then the phone was passed to one of the manager of the team that was even more profuse in thanking of Chavez for everything. That is, had Chavez not being president probably the team would not have had even the plane tickets to go to Santo Domingo.
In a sycophantic country where getting a sport dollar from politicians is a rather hard task, I can go along with these people defending their job and in the emotion of the moment becoming more chavista than Chavez. But what came later was worthy of any of the propaganda based regimes that used to dot some parts of the world, when sports victory were supposed to compensate for bread lines. A “cadena” was suddenly called and all of Venezuela networks had to show the corny medal ceremony from beginning to end. Trust me, it is way longer and silly than the mere flag rising we see in the Olympics, and the feel good effect is eventually lost, even as the National anthem comes on in a sort of unexpected anti-climax. There is a reason why normal TV broadcast shows only the anthem and flag part. At least our willful and deserving volley team did not have to watch the manipulation.
With a recall election looming, all is fair I suppose to mark a point.
Saturday, August 16, 2003
Thursday, August 14, 2003
AUGUST IN YARACUY
August 14, 2003
The rains have been with us now since June. Even though they never quite leave Yaracuy, this year was drier than usual and we needed them. Now the valley of the Yaracuy is at its lushest green, reminding us why Yaracuy is known amongst Venezuelan painters for its unique palette of greens. Sugar cane is high, mangoes have come and gone. The humid heat has become oppressive as the sea breezes have dropped to their aestival low. The air conditioning comes in handy at night.
All back to normal? Not really.
Quite often in the morning when I arrive at work there are people waiting for the “boss”, asking for jobs. This is rarer know, eventually people have realized that we had not been hiring since last year, even the to replace the few resignations we had.
The workers are anxious. Mid January when we reopened after “El Paro”, on directions from pour main offices in Caracas I gave a little speech trying to re-assure our workers that the company was still sound in spite of a year of economic chaos and that payroll was safe until May. We are in August, dollars from the control exchange commission are not flowing as they should and orders have continuously dropped. Workers are idle half of the week in general and they are getting scared, realizing that I had not lied and that the time of reckoning might be near. I do not know what to tell them since I have no idea what our fate is. What I do know is that our fate is linked to our clients and they are having problems.
What is scarier is that in the San Felipe industrial zone we are the only business that “seems” to be running, and our workers know very well that if we must make a lay-off they likely will not be able to find a job. Certainly not with our neighbors that have had less qualms about laying off than we did. Really, we have a good team, a team where the most recent worker has already 2 years with us and we are reluctant to break it, not to mention our sense of responsibility for them. But how long can we hold?
On more mundane aspects things have acquired a strange new “normalcy”. The grocery stores have become experts at hiding the holes on their shelves. Now, the alley were corn and wheat floor were stocked has been taken over by rice and sugar. Wheat flour has disappeared from the shelves for two months now, the few that gets into the country being shipped directly to bakeries and pasta makers. Little baking at home these days. One of the ubiquitous bread brand available in the stores is from a company that has decided to play its future with the government, even appearing in official events. That is a good way to get dollars I suppose. And I suppose that we will all take this road if we want to keep in business. At least until we can vote on the recall election.
Corn flour, the staple of Venezuelan diet is really becoming a problem. Since its price is controlled, the large chains have stopped selling it because they cannot recoup their costs. To avoid political sanction, grocery store chains purchase small amounts. A couple of large packs will arrive at the store on occasion, and skip the shelving process as they are opened directly on the floor. People grab two packs per capita and within minutes it is all gone. A family of five goes through one bag of corn flour in two days.
I have entered into a strange bartering agreement. I use on occasion a little bit of yellow corn flour. Most people in Venezuela eat only the white corn floor (which by the way is very different than in the US or Mexico since it is a pre-cooked variety specially designed to make Arepas, our local variety of corn bread and Venezuela’s gift to gastronomy). I find yellow flour to have a heartier taste that I favor for the arepas that I make at home. Now, whenever I see white flour I buy my allowance, bring the bags at work and barter it for yellow flour if someone can find it. Or just resell it to my colleagues that depend on Arepas. A little bit like in the old USSR. I just hope that it will not go further than corn flour.
Other items are missing of course, or have acquired stranger aspects. For example my UHT brand of milk has lost its pouring opening. Now I have to cut the edge with scissors again. The only brand that still has the specially imported pouring device is another brand that has linked its fate to the Revolution. And I do not like its taste. So I will keep cutting the edges of my old brand which will probably go chavista at some point to be able to import the plastic devices without trouble.
One thing we can still be thankful for is that the crime wave that is besotting the country has not reached Yaracuy with the same intensity. Things are worse of course. A water bottling plant a block from us was attacked at payroll last month. Recently at night somebody tried to steal the metal name plate of my apartment building to resell for scrap metal. He was heard at 2 AM and one of my neighbors got his gun and caught the guy. Big scandal in the street, people half naked out of bed, a couple of shots in the air for good measure and after half an hour eventually a police car came and took the thief. The pieces of the sign were collected in a bag and now there are only two letters on our front. Somewhere a bag lays miserable with the scrap metal wanna-be other letters.
If this sign of misery, literally, is almost risible, other signs are less. The newest racket, in San Felipe, are car “vigilantes”. You cannot park anywhere downtown without coming back to your car and finding a little cardboard that claims your car is watched. Some guy just pops out to remove the card as you get into your car and of course you are expected to give some small change. At least we are not yet pestered by all these kids that at busy intersections of big cities try to clean your windows with a bottle of dirty water.
But if these new “offices” are created with the crisis, they also come along with an increase in petty larceny. More and more stores in San Felipe are having personnel just to watch customers, when not an outright uniformed guard. In big cities bang robberies are peaking again. And the national weekly murder rate is stable in the 70-80 body count. This all on TV, and San Felipe is scared waiting for the local body count to go up anytime. Going out alone at night in erstwhile quiet San Felipe is now something you think about. I would like to know how is the cable TV industry faring these days.
August 14, 2003
The rains have been with us now since June. Even though they never quite leave Yaracuy, this year was drier than usual and we needed them. Now the valley of the Yaracuy is at its lushest green, reminding us why Yaracuy is known amongst Venezuelan painters for its unique palette of greens. Sugar cane is high, mangoes have come and gone. The humid heat has become oppressive as the sea breezes have dropped to their aestival low. The air conditioning comes in handy at night.
All back to normal? Not really.
Quite often in the morning when I arrive at work there are people waiting for the “boss”, asking for jobs. This is rarer know, eventually people have realized that we had not been hiring since last year, even the to replace the few resignations we had.
The workers are anxious. Mid January when we reopened after “El Paro”, on directions from pour main offices in Caracas I gave a little speech trying to re-assure our workers that the company was still sound in spite of a year of economic chaos and that payroll was safe until May. We are in August, dollars from the control exchange commission are not flowing as they should and orders have continuously dropped. Workers are idle half of the week in general and they are getting scared, realizing that I had not lied and that the time of reckoning might be near. I do not know what to tell them since I have no idea what our fate is. What I do know is that our fate is linked to our clients and they are having problems.
What is scarier is that in the San Felipe industrial zone we are the only business that “seems” to be running, and our workers know very well that if we must make a lay-off they likely will not be able to find a job. Certainly not with our neighbors that have had less qualms about laying off than we did. Really, we have a good team, a team where the most recent worker has already 2 years with us and we are reluctant to break it, not to mention our sense of responsibility for them. But how long can we hold?
On more mundane aspects things have acquired a strange new “normalcy”. The grocery stores have become experts at hiding the holes on their shelves. Now, the alley were corn and wheat floor were stocked has been taken over by rice and sugar. Wheat flour has disappeared from the shelves for two months now, the few that gets into the country being shipped directly to bakeries and pasta makers. Little baking at home these days. One of the ubiquitous bread brand available in the stores is from a company that has decided to play its future with the government, even appearing in official events. That is a good way to get dollars I suppose. And I suppose that we will all take this road if we want to keep in business. At least until we can vote on the recall election.
Corn flour, the staple of Venezuelan diet is really becoming a problem. Since its price is controlled, the large chains have stopped selling it because they cannot recoup their costs. To avoid political sanction, grocery store chains purchase small amounts. A couple of large packs will arrive at the store on occasion, and skip the shelving process as they are opened directly on the floor. People grab two packs per capita and within minutes it is all gone. A family of five goes through one bag of corn flour in two days.
I have entered into a strange bartering agreement. I use on occasion a little bit of yellow corn flour. Most people in Venezuela eat only the white corn floor (which by the way is very different than in the US or Mexico since it is a pre-cooked variety specially designed to make Arepas, our local variety of corn bread and Venezuela’s gift to gastronomy). I find yellow flour to have a heartier taste that I favor for the arepas that I make at home. Now, whenever I see white flour I buy my allowance, bring the bags at work and barter it for yellow flour if someone can find it. Or just resell it to my colleagues that depend on Arepas. A little bit like in the old USSR. I just hope that it will not go further than corn flour.
Other items are missing of course, or have acquired stranger aspects. For example my UHT brand of milk has lost its pouring opening. Now I have to cut the edge with scissors again. The only brand that still has the specially imported pouring device is another brand that has linked its fate to the Revolution. And I do not like its taste. So I will keep cutting the edges of my old brand which will probably go chavista at some point to be able to import the plastic devices without trouble.
One thing we can still be thankful for is that the crime wave that is besotting the country has not reached Yaracuy with the same intensity. Things are worse of course. A water bottling plant a block from us was attacked at payroll last month. Recently at night somebody tried to steal the metal name plate of my apartment building to resell for scrap metal. He was heard at 2 AM and one of my neighbors got his gun and caught the guy. Big scandal in the street, people half naked out of bed, a couple of shots in the air for good measure and after half an hour eventually a police car came and took the thief. The pieces of the sign were collected in a bag and now there are only two letters on our front. Somewhere a bag lays miserable with the scrap metal wanna-be other letters.
If this sign of misery, literally, is almost risible, other signs are less. The newest racket, in San Felipe, are car “vigilantes”. You cannot park anywhere downtown without coming back to your car and finding a little cardboard that claims your car is watched. Some guy just pops out to remove the card as you get into your car and of course you are expected to give some small change. At least we are not yet pestered by all these kids that at busy intersections of big cities try to clean your windows with a bottle of dirty water.
But if these new “offices” are created with the crisis, they also come along with an increase in petty larceny. More and more stores in San Felipe are having personnel just to watch customers, when not an outright uniformed guard. In big cities bang robberies are peaking again. And the national weekly murder rate is stable in the 70-80 body count. This all on TV, and San Felipe is scared waiting for the local body count to go up anytime. Going out alone at night in erstwhile quiet San Felipe is now something you think about. I would like to know how is the cable TV industry faring these days.
MIGUEL OCTAVIO BLOG ANNIVERSARY
August 14, 2003
Miguel Octavio Blog, The Devil’s Excrement, just reached his one year mark. Besides wanting to congratulate him for the effort and good work, I want to say that he has helped me indirectly by keeping me writing on in a kind of “gentle” competition, or even by giving me a sense of duty to write when he was out of town.
Our blog styles are different. He is not afraid to cite more facts than I do, or less lazy than I am at translating articles. I tend to like to process things “in block” and perhaps I focus a little bit too much on some ideas making me perhaps too analytical on occasion.
But I like to think that our different styles allow people to have a more complete perspective of what is going in Venezuela. We both want the best for our country and we both are allergic to the misinformation that emanates from so many sources.
Thanks for writing Miguel.
August 14, 2003
Miguel Octavio Blog, The Devil’s Excrement, just reached his one year mark. Besides wanting to congratulate him for the effort and good work, I want to say that he has helped me indirectly by keeping me writing on in a kind of “gentle” competition, or even by giving me a sense of duty to write when he was out of town.
Our blog styles are different. He is not afraid to cite more facts than I do, or less lazy than I am at translating articles. I tend to like to process things “in block” and perhaps I focus a little bit too much on some ideas making me perhaps too analytical on occasion.
But I like to think that our different styles allow people to have a more complete perspective of what is going in Venezuela. We both want the best for our country and we both are allergic to the misinformation that emanates from so many sources.
Thanks for writing Miguel.
THE POLITICAL FRINGES ON STAGE
August 13, 2003
As the heat wave from hot talk is sure to strike us with the recall election approaching, it would be interesting to describe two of most prominent spokesperson from each side. I have selected two emblematic figures that can be charitably described as belonging to the fringes of each block. From the chavista left wing representative Iris Valera embodies all the passion of the “Bolivarian revolutionary cause” independently of the hard facts of life. From the anti chavista right wing, well known former actor and recycled TV talk show host, Orlando Urdaneta, illustrates how oblivious of the real country the opposition can appear.
IRIS VALERA
Representative Iris Valera is the prototype of the political non-entity and fringe activist that was catapulted to fame and some form of power thanks to the Chavez coat tails. An obscure lawyer from Tachira, she even confessed having toyed with the idea of joining the Colombian FARC guerilla in her youth. She cultivates a certain disheveled look that centers on a leonine curly hair-do. Her speech tone is generally excited and ideas do not seem to stay long enough behind her lips to mature. Or do they? One does wonder because sometimes she seems to be quite the agent provocateur.
She rose to fame while a member of the 1999 constituent assembly. Her principal contribution was the demise of the Venezuelan senate. “We cannot make a revolution without radically changing some stuff. Let’s eliminate the senate” she said more or less. Certainly one of the most powerful intellectual arguments ever advanced to create or demote a venerable institution.
Chavez impressed by her direct words gave her the surname “comandante fosoforito” (easy burning match commandant).
Of course, she has been extensively used by chavistas for some high profile media outings. She seems unusually able to dig out pertinent information that would take days to a normal investigative journalist to find. Surely, she and her staff are particularly efficient. One should not speculate on her mounting media shows of counter information, even if that seems to be her objective.
Her latest gambit was to propose two new constitutional amendments. The government hell-bent on delaying or stopping the recall election altogether can only be pleased by her suggestion to change the rules for naming and removing the High Court officials and the Electoral Authorities. This would be done by a simple majority, instead of the cumbersome democratic consensus seeking 2/3 majority required by the constitution. That Chavez style has made him lose by defections the 2/3 majority he had in 2000 does not seem to be a source of angst when he can try to change the constitution.
Unfortunately, this has to go to referendum, if passed at the assembly. Interestingly, the cursed, and fascist actual electoral authorities unfit to run a recall election, authorities that should be changed for “good revolutionary ones” suddenly appear to be fit to run a constitutional amendment referendum. I have to admit that only Iris Varela can pull that one in front of TV cameras, without the shade of a single self-doubt. Ah! Faith in the revolution!
ORLANDO URDANETA
Orlando Urdaneta opens his nightly talk show on Globovison network by describing the fashionable outfit that he is wearing to promote a well-known boutique. He announces simply that every night they lend him a different outfit and tie (he seems partial to Armani). He also advertises later in the show watches in the thousands of dollars that go rather well with his outfits.
Mr. Urdaneta used to be an actor until he found his calling in defending Venezuelan liberties against the bloody tyranny of Chavez. He became particularly active after one of his cousin messed up the April 11 events. The cousin, a high officer in the military establishment, eventually joined the Plaza Altamira sit-in of last October, a sit-in that lasts to this day, benefiting now the government rather than the opposition.
Mr. Urdaneta has become a celebrity of sorts with his strong statements, widely cheered as a fixture on the stage of most opposition rallies. In his defense, I must say that on occasion he has not hesitated to walk in the front lines. Less wisely, he has taken on himself to promote events that have been more of a bust than a success. Recently, when Omar Calderon, an ex-governor of Tachira and prominent local opposition leader was abducted, Orlando Urdaneta called his admirers for a sit-in on Caracas main thoroughfare. This resulted in a massive traffic jam and a universal pestering against him. This still would have been OK, except that the attendance was poor, he almost got arrested putting at unnecessary risk some of the dissident military and almost created a violent situation that would have benefited the government and damaged the opposition hard earned and still fragile pacific and legalistic image. All of that of course without bringing an iota closer the freedom of Omar Calderon.
Of course, this type of direct action activities garners him a lot of sympathy with some that still think that a military coup would free us from the Chavez nightmare.
His latest TV/radio crusade is to call for the boycott of companies perceived, by him, to make a fast buck with the Chavez administration. This type of actions, well targeted, could indeed bring some political dividends. But when announced from an Armani suit to the people in the lower echelons of the financial pyramid one is allowed to wonder of its efficacy. Surely, there is a feel good cheap activism for those who have options. However, does Mr. Urdaneta realize that the sales tax of 16% on the Armani suit goes to Chavez’s coffers? Is he aware that the company that most helps the government finances is the oil and gas PDVSA giant monopoly? Next to PDVSA all are peanuts. All what he might achieve, perhaps, is ruining the alleged accomplices and make their workers lose their jobs. I wonder if these newly jobless folks would vote for Mr. Urdaneta friends.
As the reader can see, inconsistencies are not the monopoly of either side. Oddly, both of today personages, immune to ridicule, seem the two sides of the same coin.
August 13, 2003
As the heat wave from hot talk is sure to strike us with the recall election approaching, it would be interesting to describe two of most prominent spokesperson from each side. I have selected two emblematic figures that can be charitably described as belonging to the fringes of each block. From the chavista left wing representative Iris Valera embodies all the passion of the “Bolivarian revolutionary cause” independently of the hard facts of life. From the anti chavista right wing, well known former actor and recycled TV talk show host, Orlando Urdaneta, illustrates how oblivious of the real country the opposition can appear.
IRIS VALERA
Representative Iris Valera is the prototype of the political non-entity and fringe activist that was catapulted to fame and some form of power thanks to the Chavez coat tails. An obscure lawyer from Tachira, she even confessed having toyed with the idea of joining the Colombian FARC guerilla in her youth. She cultivates a certain disheveled look that centers on a leonine curly hair-do. Her speech tone is generally excited and ideas do not seem to stay long enough behind her lips to mature. Or do they? One does wonder because sometimes she seems to be quite the agent provocateur.
She rose to fame while a member of the 1999 constituent assembly. Her principal contribution was the demise of the Venezuelan senate. “We cannot make a revolution without radically changing some stuff. Let’s eliminate the senate” she said more or less. Certainly one of the most powerful intellectual arguments ever advanced to create or demote a venerable institution.
Chavez impressed by her direct words gave her the surname “comandante fosoforito” (easy burning match commandant).
Of course, she has been extensively used by chavistas for some high profile media outings. She seems unusually able to dig out pertinent information that would take days to a normal investigative journalist to find. Surely, she and her staff are particularly efficient. One should not speculate on her mounting media shows of counter information, even if that seems to be her objective.
Her latest gambit was to propose two new constitutional amendments. The government hell-bent on delaying or stopping the recall election altogether can only be pleased by her suggestion to change the rules for naming and removing the High Court officials and the Electoral Authorities. This would be done by a simple majority, instead of the cumbersome democratic consensus seeking 2/3 majority required by the constitution. That Chavez style has made him lose by defections the 2/3 majority he had in 2000 does not seem to be a source of angst when he can try to change the constitution.
Unfortunately, this has to go to referendum, if passed at the assembly. Interestingly, the cursed, and fascist actual electoral authorities unfit to run a recall election, authorities that should be changed for “good revolutionary ones” suddenly appear to be fit to run a constitutional amendment referendum. I have to admit that only Iris Varela can pull that one in front of TV cameras, without the shade of a single self-doubt. Ah! Faith in the revolution!
ORLANDO URDANETA
Orlando Urdaneta opens his nightly talk show on Globovison network by describing the fashionable outfit that he is wearing to promote a well-known boutique. He announces simply that every night they lend him a different outfit and tie (he seems partial to Armani). He also advertises later in the show watches in the thousands of dollars that go rather well with his outfits.
Mr. Urdaneta used to be an actor until he found his calling in defending Venezuelan liberties against the bloody tyranny of Chavez. He became particularly active after one of his cousin messed up the April 11 events. The cousin, a high officer in the military establishment, eventually joined the Plaza Altamira sit-in of last October, a sit-in that lasts to this day, benefiting now the government rather than the opposition.
Mr. Urdaneta has become a celebrity of sorts with his strong statements, widely cheered as a fixture on the stage of most opposition rallies. In his defense, I must say that on occasion he has not hesitated to walk in the front lines. Less wisely, he has taken on himself to promote events that have been more of a bust than a success. Recently, when Omar Calderon, an ex-governor of Tachira and prominent local opposition leader was abducted, Orlando Urdaneta called his admirers for a sit-in on Caracas main thoroughfare. This resulted in a massive traffic jam and a universal pestering against him. This still would have been OK, except that the attendance was poor, he almost got arrested putting at unnecessary risk some of the dissident military and almost created a violent situation that would have benefited the government and damaged the opposition hard earned and still fragile pacific and legalistic image. All of that of course without bringing an iota closer the freedom of Omar Calderon.
Of course, this type of direct action activities garners him a lot of sympathy with some that still think that a military coup would free us from the Chavez nightmare.
His latest TV/radio crusade is to call for the boycott of companies perceived, by him, to make a fast buck with the Chavez administration. This type of actions, well targeted, could indeed bring some political dividends. But when announced from an Armani suit to the people in the lower echelons of the financial pyramid one is allowed to wonder of its efficacy. Surely, there is a feel good cheap activism for those who have options. However, does Mr. Urdaneta realize that the sales tax of 16% on the Armani suit goes to Chavez’s coffers? Is he aware that the company that most helps the government finances is the oil and gas PDVSA giant monopoly? Next to PDVSA all are peanuts. All what he might achieve, perhaps, is ruining the alleged accomplices and make their workers lose their jobs. I wonder if these newly jobless folks would vote for Mr. Urdaneta friends.
As the reader can see, inconsistencies are not the monopoly of either side. Oddly, both of today personages, immune to ridicule, seem the two sides of the same coin.
Monday, August 11, 2003
Tiempo de marchas
“a time to march” (*)
August 11, 2003
Sometimes one gets one of these moments where we can reflect on what certain episodes of our life meant. I did get one of these moments Saturday when I attended the premiere of a documentary on some of the events of last years, namely the huge popular manifestations that happened so regularly in Caracas.
The world became aware of the marching ability of Venezuelans on April 11 2002 when Chavez resigned (temporarily) after the huge march of the opposition was ambushed downtown Caracas, resulting in dozens of dead and injured. But Venezuelans have been doing long marches as a form of political action for a long time. Even Carlos Andres Perez built his own successful 1973 bid for the presidency with the leitmotiv “ese hombre si camina” (that man really walks).
Chavez, in the best populist tradition, rated his success by his ability to mobilize people in huge rallies, or lengthy marches. And at least until December 2001 he claimed that the opposition was unable to match him in the streets. Indeed the efforts from the opposition until the first one day general strike of December 2001 were noticeable but still weak. The video which title I use today shows clearly how Chavez lost the street and the public support through 2002.
Tiempo de marchas is an edition of hundreds of hour of film footage, from news clips to amateur videos of the sometimes gigantic mobilizations that the opposition carried through 2002 when it still believed that a reasonable ruler would hear the complaint of his people and act accordingly.
As a polished documentary one can see all these critical moments that marked the political evolution of the country. The video starts with the January 23 march, held while chavistas had their own one a few blocks away. The opposition march at the very least matched the chavista one in numbers, and with a thrill we realized that we could dare take on Chavez in the streets. This defining moment certainly contributed to lead to the second general strike.
The April 11 march was the fateful march where everything changed as the country was broken in two. Still, Chavez seemed to have the upper hand. But this was going to be an illusion as the rest of the year unfolded. The May 11 night rally was noteworthy if anything because with barely one month after the April 11 catastrophe, the grieving opposition was undaunted and back on the saddle.
The October 10 march was the first one in Venezuelan history to pass the 1 million marchers. The thrill of that march was, for me anyway, unmatched. Perhaps its size was impressive but what struck people more then was that for the first time the cameras could show that all sectors of Venezuelan society were marching together, in peace. Black and white. Rich and poor. Leftists and rightists against a wanna-be authoritarian ruler. Chavistas never recovered from October 10. They did attempt to mobilize some but clearly the heart was not in it anymore. By November the marching alleys were for the opposition and the stage was set for the December general strike.
Among the many marches that are shown through the video there is one which was particularly important, Saturday December 14 2002, when in the middle of general strike, while gas had run out in Caracas, more than a million people marched from all corners of Caracas to converge at Altamira exchange on the central highway, to gather in the most spectacular rally that Caracas had ever witnessed. The image, and impressions, of the sea of flags as nightfall fell went around the globe and showed that Chavez speeches were mere propaganda. From then on international opinion who tended to be legalistic, and thus rather pro-Chavez, started having second thoughts. It became clear to many that Chavez had a problem, of his own doing.
But the video also works at an emotional level. It is a very moving video, at least for those of us that did participate to some of these marches. It makes us understand that all the effort was not lost, that we learned something about ourselves and our love of freedom, and our wish to fight for it. It shows what was truly an epic moment in our history, a popular fervor that is rarely seen. Chavez might still be in office but he has lost the heart of most Venezuelans.
(*) “Tiempo de marcha: un a?o dando la cara” (A time of marches: a year facing up) is as of Saturday 9, 2003 available in Venezuela, and I trust that soon on internet excerpts will be found. It is a 50 minutes documentary showing the highlights of the main marches that took place in Caracas in 2002, including hard moments such as the shootings of April 2001, as well as some of elating moments of civic pride, and comic relief, that dotted these marches. It is promoted by an NGO, Ciudadania Activa ; contact contacto@ciudadaniaacctiva.com
“a time to march” (*)
August 11, 2003
Sometimes one gets one of these moments where we can reflect on what certain episodes of our life meant. I did get one of these moments Saturday when I attended the premiere of a documentary on some of the events of last years, namely the huge popular manifestations that happened so regularly in Caracas.
The world became aware of the marching ability of Venezuelans on April 11 2002 when Chavez resigned (temporarily) after the huge march of the opposition was ambushed downtown Caracas, resulting in dozens of dead and injured. But Venezuelans have been doing long marches as a form of political action for a long time. Even Carlos Andres Perez built his own successful 1973 bid for the presidency with the leitmotiv “ese hombre si camina” (that man really walks).
Chavez, in the best populist tradition, rated his success by his ability to mobilize people in huge rallies, or lengthy marches. And at least until December 2001 he claimed that the opposition was unable to match him in the streets. Indeed the efforts from the opposition until the first one day general strike of December 2001 were noticeable but still weak. The video which title I use today shows clearly how Chavez lost the street and the public support through 2002.
Tiempo de marchas is an edition of hundreds of hour of film footage, from news clips to amateur videos of the sometimes gigantic mobilizations that the opposition carried through 2002 when it still believed that a reasonable ruler would hear the complaint of his people and act accordingly.
As a polished documentary one can see all these critical moments that marked the political evolution of the country. The video starts with the January 23 march, held while chavistas had their own one a few blocks away. The opposition march at the very least matched the chavista one in numbers, and with a thrill we realized that we could dare take on Chavez in the streets. This defining moment certainly contributed to lead to the second general strike.
The April 11 march was the fateful march where everything changed as the country was broken in two. Still, Chavez seemed to have the upper hand. But this was going to be an illusion as the rest of the year unfolded. The May 11 night rally was noteworthy if anything because with barely one month after the April 11 catastrophe, the grieving opposition was undaunted and back on the saddle.
The October 10 march was the first one in Venezuelan history to pass the 1 million marchers. The thrill of that march was, for me anyway, unmatched. Perhaps its size was impressive but what struck people more then was that for the first time the cameras could show that all sectors of Venezuelan society were marching together, in peace. Black and white. Rich and poor. Leftists and rightists against a wanna-be authoritarian ruler. Chavistas never recovered from October 10. They did attempt to mobilize some but clearly the heart was not in it anymore. By November the marching alleys were for the opposition and the stage was set for the December general strike.
Among the many marches that are shown through the video there is one which was particularly important, Saturday December 14 2002, when in the middle of general strike, while gas had run out in Caracas, more than a million people marched from all corners of Caracas to converge at Altamira exchange on the central highway, to gather in the most spectacular rally that Caracas had ever witnessed. The image, and impressions, of the sea of flags as nightfall fell went around the globe and showed that Chavez speeches were mere propaganda. From then on international opinion who tended to be legalistic, and thus rather pro-Chavez, started having second thoughts. It became clear to many that Chavez had a problem, of his own doing.
But the video also works at an emotional level. It is a very moving video, at least for those of us that did participate to some of these marches. It makes us understand that all the effort was not lost, that we learned something about ourselves and our love of freedom, and our wish to fight for it. It shows what was truly an epic moment in our history, a popular fervor that is rarely seen. Chavez might still be in office but he has lost the heart of most Venezuelans.
(*) “Tiempo de marcha: un a?o dando la cara” (A time of marches: a year facing up) is as of Saturday 9, 2003 available in Venezuela, and I trust that soon on internet excerpts will be found. It is a 50 minutes documentary showing the highlights of the main marches that took place in Caracas in 2002, including hard moments such as the shootings of April 2001, as well as some of elating moments of civic pride, and comic relief, that dotted these marches. It is promoted by an NGO, Ciudadania Activa ; contact contacto@ciudadaniaacctiva.com
Saturday, August 02, 2003
EL REVOCATORIO (II)
Why is Chavez scared
August 1, 2003
If one watches Venezuelan television these days one cannot fail but notice that Chavez is quite often on “cadenas”. Every two or three days we are treated to a show, up to two hours long, where Chavez blasts the opposition on every TV and radio, simultaneously. If he is not accusing the opposition of “golpistas” he is advertising the “successes” of the Bolivarian Revolution. He even had set a special studio with several fancy special TV plasma screens which he uses to link during the show to several places in the country where some local chavista authority extols the good works. If he is travelling, there are the usual suspects nattily coifed with the “de rigueur” red beret, mostly on the darker skin shade side of Venezuelan population, appropriately cheering on cue. If one wonders whether this is an electoral meeting one would not be very far from the truth.
Since Chavez went on the counter offensive after the general strike, assuming he ever left the offensive, his style has become a never ending electoral campaign. While of course claiming that the Revocatorio will never take place. And if it ever took place, well, he is going to win anyway. But these things are for future installments in these series. What interests us today is to understand Chavez attitude, why is he already on an electoral rampage while no election has been officially called, so far.
Of course, if there is a recall election Chavez will be out of a job. Financially I am sure he has no worries. So it would seem that he should be OK. Something like Grey Davis the Californian Governor that is fighting the normal political battle for his recall election. Resemblance stops there. Actually losing his job per se is probably the very least of Chavez concerns these days. Chavez in fact leads a rather inept and corrupt regime, with probably some blood on its hand. And he is the wanna-be heir to Fidel Castro, his most treasured dream. Let’s examine briefly what it all means.
THE STAKES IN CHAVEZ’S ENTOURAGE
The first important observation is that most people in Chavez’s entourage have risen to power thanks to Chavez. Most of the few players from past administrations, that might or might not have enjoyed direct access to power then, have long left the chavista ship. Counted are chavistas today that have been at least the mayor of an important town, or yielded significant power in the old Congress. As it was to be expected, these long suffering low ranking politicos seem to have been blinded by the glory and unable to resist the temptations that come to those in power. Tales of corruption abound and unfortunately it is rather easy to observe the change in life style of some of them.
The inner circle of Chavez is reinforced by some from the Army. There, Chavez has managed his discretionary attributes well when promoting to the top officials that would not have normally made the cut. The newly, and perhaps surprised, beneficiaries have for main quality their vague or precise loyalty to the “Revolution and its leader”. And the governmental hallways abound of officers “borrowed” by the public administration to an extent not seen outside of what is expected for a military dictatorship administration.
All of these people have something in common: they know that they will follow very closely in the steps of Chavez’s departure and return into oblivion for ever, a golden oblivion for some perhaps but this is another story. Some also know that they will face the courts. Times have changed and today’s opposition is less likely to be as lenient as it was traditionally done in the past.
From this it is rather simple to suspect that they are putting lots of pressure on Chavez to resist.
THE STAKES FOR CHAVEZ FUTURE
Chavez has committed one big mistake, he has been promoting himself as the natural leader for the downtrodden masses in South America. Indeed he has made some inroads there, but so has Castro tried, and for longer. And Castro cannot brag much on regimes that went totally the way Cuba has gone.
This initial self delusion has not improved and if anything he sees himself more than ever as the heir of the aging Castro. After all he thinks of himself as an avatar of Simon Bolivar, although he is coyer on that these days.
Chavez has hosted or participated in countless of “meetings and forums” that bring together fringe leaders from all around the world. There he sells himself effectively to some European anti-globalization activists. They flatter him to gain influence, he likes flattery.
What is the worse that could happen to such a self promoting politician? To lose an election. That would show the world he cannot hold popular support with his policies. His image would be killed the moment he loses the recall election. Sure, he still would be invited to all these “forums”, and what would vex him most is not that he would have to pay his way now, but that he would be just another guest.
It is my belief that this last reason is the most likely to keep him up at night plotting ways to sabotage the referendum vote. In a normal system he could lose the recall election, and within Venezuela he could still aspire to a political career. But Venezuela has become too small for his ego. He can only be president of Venezuela while he looks for bigger prizes. Like Castro, he cannot be bothered with fair elections in Venezuela.
Why is Chavez scared
August 1, 2003
If one watches Venezuelan television these days one cannot fail but notice that Chavez is quite often on “cadenas”. Every two or three days we are treated to a show, up to two hours long, where Chavez blasts the opposition on every TV and radio, simultaneously. If he is not accusing the opposition of “golpistas” he is advertising the “successes” of the Bolivarian Revolution. He even had set a special studio with several fancy special TV plasma screens which he uses to link during the show to several places in the country where some local chavista authority extols the good works. If he is travelling, there are the usual suspects nattily coifed with the “de rigueur” red beret, mostly on the darker skin shade side of Venezuelan population, appropriately cheering on cue. If one wonders whether this is an electoral meeting one would not be very far from the truth.
Since Chavez went on the counter offensive after the general strike, assuming he ever left the offensive, his style has become a never ending electoral campaign. While of course claiming that the Revocatorio will never take place. And if it ever took place, well, he is going to win anyway. But these things are for future installments in these series. What interests us today is to understand Chavez attitude, why is he already on an electoral rampage while no election has been officially called, so far.
Of course, if there is a recall election Chavez will be out of a job. Financially I am sure he has no worries. So it would seem that he should be OK. Something like Grey Davis the Californian Governor that is fighting the normal political battle for his recall election. Resemblance stops there. Actually losing his job per se is probably the very least of Chavez concerns these days. Chavez in fact leads a rather inept and corrupt regime, with probably some blood on its hand. And he is the wanna-be heir to Fidel Castro, his most treasured dream. Let’s examine briefly what it all means.
THE STAKES IN CHAVEZ’S ENTOURAGE
The first important observation is that most people in Chavez’s entourage have risen to power thanks to Chavez. Most of the few players from past administrations, that might or might not have enjoyed direct access to power then, have long left the chavista ship. Counted are chavistas today that have been at least the mayor of an important town, or yielded significant power in the old Congress. As it was to be expected, these long suffering low ranking politicos seem to have been blinded by the glory and unable to resist the temptations that come to those in power. Tales of corruption abound and unfortunately it is rather easy to observe the change in life style of some of them.
The inner circle of Chavez is reinforced by some from the Army. There, Chavez has managed his discretionary attributes well when promoting to the top officials that would not have normally made the cut. The newly, and perhaps surprised, beneficiaries have for main quality their vague or precise loyalty to the “Revolution and its leader”. And the governmental hallways abound of officers “borrowed” by the public administration to an extent not seen outside of what is expected for a military dictatorship administration.
All of these people have something in common: they know that they will follow very closely in the steps of Chavez’s departure and return into oblivion for ever, a golden oblivion for some perhaps but this is another story. Some also know that they will face the courts. Times have changed and today’s opposition is less likely to be as lenient as it was traditionally done in the past.
From this it is rather simple to suspect that they are putting lots of pressure on Chavez to resist.
THE STAKES FOR CHAVEZ FUTURE
Chavez has committed one big mistake, he has been promoting himself as the natural leader for the downtrodden masses in South America. Indeed he has made some inroads there, but so has Castro tried, and for longer. And Castro cannot brag much on regimes that went totally the way Cuba has gone.
This initial self delusion has not improved and if anything he sees himself more than ever as the heir of the aging Castro. After all he thinks of himself as an avatar of Simon Bolivar, although he is coyer on that these days.
Chavez has hosted or participated in countless of “meetings and forums” that bring together fringe leaders from all around the world. There he sells himself effectively to some European anti-globalization activists. They flatter him to gain influence, he likes flattery.
What is the worse that could happen to such a self promoting politician? To lose an election. That would show the world he cannot hold popular support with his policies. His image would be killed the moment he loses the recall election. Sure, he still would be invited to all these “forums”, and what would vex him most is not that he would have to pay his way now, but that he would be just another guest.
It is my belief that this last reason is the most likely to keep him up at night plotting ways to sabotage the referendum vote. In a normal system he could lose the recall election, and within Venezuela he could still aspire to a political career. But Venezuela has become too small for his ego. He can only be president of Venezuela while he looks for bigger prizes. Like Castro, he cannot be bothered with fair elections in Venezuela.
Friday, August 01, 2003
EL REVOCATORIO (I)
Recall Election, not California style
July 31, 2003
Today July 31 somehow marks the end of a cycle. On August 19 Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s president, will reach the half mark of his 6 years term. According to the new 1999 constitution, the opposition will be allowed to call for a recall election, or in Spanish, Referendum Revocatorio. Considering what the thread of Venezuelan history has been these last years one can expect to see many a heady day in the near future.
As luck as it, California is going through a traumatic recall election of its own. It will be interesting, on occasion, to compare the political behavior of both entities. But before starting this occasional series of reports, today it would be good to just review the legal technicalities behind the Revocatorio.
According to Article 72 of the constitution, any elected official can be recalled after the following requirements are met:
* The official has reached the half mark of his/her term.
* 20% or more of the registered voters of the particular electoral district (the whole of Venezuela for Chavez) must sign a petition that is addressed to the Electoral Council (CNE).
* If the valid signatures do indeed reach the 20% mark, the CNE has to call for a referendum within 30 to 60 days (this period is not quite clear yet).
If these requirements are fulfilled, the CNE calls for the election. For the official to be recalled the following requirement will have to be met:
* At least 25% of the electorate must vote.
* The numbers of “yes” votes must be equal or larger than the votes the elected official received at the previous election.
A complete information page is available, but in Spanish.
Which are the numbers for Chavez?
* 20% of the electorate means that 2.500.000 people must sign for the Revocatorio, which in practical terms means that about 3.000.000 people must sign up to make sure that 2.500.000 signatures are valid (people sign twice, people not registered to vote sign anyway, etc...)
* Chavez was elected with 3.757.773 votes in 2000, thus the minimum number of needed Yes votes (without forgetting that the No votes must be lower).
* And of course 3.125.000 people must cast a vote.
Completing these requirements normally should be a difficult task and the new Constitution meant it, since making recall elections too easy would create political instability. However, what is surprising is that the signatures have been collected already, and more than 4.000.000 of them. What is even more noteworthy is the attitude of the Chavez officials that are clearly running scared. Among their multiple strategies to forestall an election that all polls show as unwinnable today, one is to say that signatures can be collected only after August 19 (thus invalidating the ones from El Firmazo). Another one is that people should go personally to the CNE to sign to make sure signatures are valid. Imagine a 2.500.000 people line up…… Scarier are threats of posting paid thugs at the entrances of popular districts to make sure that people stay home on election day, or some other type of convenient violence. It should make for a few interesting observations for the next few weeks. Keep tuned.
Recall Election, not California style
July 31, 2003
Today July 31 somehow marks the end of a cycle. On August 19 Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s president, will reach the half mark of his 6 years term. According to the new 1999 constitution, the opposition will be allowed to call for a recall election, or in Spanish, Referendum Revocatorio. Considering what the thread of Venezuelan history has been these last years one can expect to see many a heady day in the near future.
As luck as it, California is going through a traumatic recall election of its own. It will be interesting, on occasion, to compare the political behavior of both entities. But before starting this occasional series of reports, today it would be good to just review the legal technicalities behind the Revocatorio.
According to Article 72 of the constitution, any elected official can be recalled after the following requirements are met:
* The official has reached the half mark of his/her term.
* 20% or more of the registered voters of the particular electoral district (the whole of Venezuela for Chavez) must sign a petition that is addressed to the Electoral Council (CNE).
* If the valid signatures do indeed reach the 20% mark, the CNE has to call for a referendum within 30 to 60 days (this period is not quite clear yet).
If these requirements are fulfilled, the CNE calls for the election. For the official to be recalled the following requirement will have to be met:
* At least 25% of the electorate must vote.
* The numbers of “yes” votes must be equal or larger than the votes the elected official received at the previous election.
A complete information page is available, but in Spanish.
Which are the numbers for Chavez?
* 20% of the electorate means that 2.500.000 people must sign for the Revocatorio, which in practical terms means that about 3.000.000 people must sign up to make sure that 2.500.000 signatures are valid (people sign twice, people not registered to vote sign anyway, etc...)
* Chavez was elected with 3.757.773 votes in 2000, thus the minimum number of needed Yes votes (without forgetting that the No votes must be lower).
* And of course 3.125.000 people must cast a vote.
Completing these requirements normally should be a difficult task and the new Constitution meant it, since making recall elections too easy would create political instability. However, what is surprising is that the signatures have been collected already, and more than 4.000.000 of them. What is even more noteworthy is the attitude of the Chavez officials that are clearly running scared. Among their multiple strategies to forestall an election that all polls show as unwinnable today, one is to say that signatures can be collected only after August 19 (thus invalidating the ones from El Firmazo). Another one is that people should go personally to the CNE to sign to make sure signatures are valid. Imagine a 2.500.000 people line up…… Scarier are threats of posting paid thugs at the entrances of popular districts to make sure that people stay home on election day, or some other type of convenient violence. It should make for a few interesting observations for the next few weeks. Keep tuned.
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