Wednesday, May 05, 2004

A dead soldier on morning TV
Wednesday 5, May 2004

Watching the early morning talk shows was quite fascinating this morning. Since I subscribe to Direct TV ® I will just follow the dial order, as I surfed between 7 and 8 AM

Venevision
The Cisneros TV broadcast chain with the fearsome Napoleon Bravo was not talking about the death of Angel Ciro Pedreanez. Instead it had a program about insecurity in one of the Caracas hot zones, 23 de Enero, allegedly pro Chavez. Well, it seems that there is no monolithic support for the glorious revolution there… But that is OK. Napoleon Bravo, exquisite connoisseur of the Venezuelan mood, will probably have his own special in a few days, to make sure that the dust does not settle on the case.

RCTV
The other big private network did have its broadcast consecrated to the dead soldier. A series of interviews with people on the set, and live from Maracaibo, established quickly the morass of versions that are surrounding this terrible affair.

Televen
The network that aspires at competing against the previous 2, and whose target are the middle and upper middle class, had as luck had it scheduled a debate between two opponents and two Chavez Assembly representatives, Calixto Ortega and Tarek Saab. The topic was the relation between the US and Venezuela. But eventually the debate shifted to the dead soldier and the presence of Mr. Ortega did not help as he is a representative from Zulia. Well, it almost degenerated into a fist fight as one of the opponents whose name escapes me right now reminded to Calixto that the shooters of Puente Llaguno not only were free but had been awarded a medal. This of course while Calixto was asking people to calm down, that a fair investigation was going to take place. He seems that he is the only one thinking in such a way.

VTV
The state channel studiously discussed other issues, rather trivial considering the moment. One assemblyman was duly propped up to denounce the “megafraud”. One trade union representative was manipulated into trying to have him say that SIDOR, the huge steel concern now on strike should be renationalized. This was the most surprising as they are the ones that got yesterday’s scoop when the head doctor of the dead soldier declared exclusively to VTV.

Globovision
There the star was Patricia Poleo, the investigative journalist that has been doggedly on that case. Ms. Poleo is a rather controversial journalist that more than once has put her foot in her mouth. However when she hits jackpot, they tend to be huge, as was the infamous case of Montesinos hidden in Venezuela after fleeing from Peru. This morning she detailed the reasons as to why there might be foul play in the death of the soldier. She stopped short from stating that he was murdered (which did not stop her from saying that overdose of insulin could have easily been put in the drip that the soldier was receiving).

But Ms. Poleo was rather convincing in establishing that there was a motive to silence the soldier. The rumors, since he emerged from coma, where contradicting the official version of the events. But the lawyer stupidly was doing some power play announcing that he had a tape but refusing to release it and playing his 15 minutes of fame instead of hurrying prosecutors to the hospital bed to take down the declaration of the injured soldier. Thus the “interested” parties that might “have something to hide” were warned and “might” have acted. Add to this that one of the MD attending the case has less than a sterling service sheet and all sorts of conspiracy theories are possible.

Interesting the Cuban connection reappeared, as the rumor is that some of the detained soldier were punished because they refused to take order form Cuban “advisors”. She also added that the other soldiers that were not as injured have disappeared, moved elsewhere, including their relatives and she is trying to track them down.

What to think?
I really do not know. All has been handled clumsily by all parts and if someone were trying to cover up something, that is the way they would have acted. Still, I am reluctant to assume that Angel Ciro Pedreáñez has been murdered. But considering that a real and fair investigation will never happen (something that all but Calixto Ortega agree on), there is little chance that we will know for sure whatever happened. What I can tell you is that in the San Felipe streets, too many folks think that the soldier has been killed. Vox populi, vox Dei? This is where we are now in Venezuela.


More on the death of Angel Ciro Pedreáñez

The plot thickens.

Apparently the unfortunate soldier had recovered enough to declare last week to his lawyer in a taped statement that the "punition" cell where he met his end was set on fire on purpose (with some flame throwing device, probably a soldering flame, according to some of the confusing reports). Thus why the mattress did light up very fast causing the tragedy.

The soldier's lawyer also states that he had been trying to get the public ministry to take down the declarations to no avail. So we are left with a single tape whose value in courts, that is in Venezuelan courts, remain to be seen. Details are confirmed by the father, who also added that they were having lunch in the hospital and learned of the death of their son watching TV! Understandably upset he has no qualms to claim foul play.

At least the General Prosecutor has suggested to the Army to relinquish the investigation to his civilian jurisdiction. Apparently the public relation damage is so bad that something must be done to at least pretend that some serious investigation will take place. The Defense Minister seems willing to grab that fig leaf, at least until he thinks of something. He does not have much of a choice at this point as the relatives, certain to sue, want nothing to do with military justice highly damaged by these recent cases.

This is appalling beyond words...

Tuesday, May 04, 2004

The other burnt soldier is dead
Tuesday 4, May 2004

A couple of hours ago the media announced the death of the other burnt soldier from Fuerte Mara (UNIONRADIO) Angel Ciro Pedreáñez.

This is becoming quite a problem for the Chavez administration which is not finding a way to silence this story and make a cover up of sorts. Already for weeks it has been trying all sorts of suspicious maneuvers. Starting from the famous "alo Presidente" where Chavez stated that the private media was trying to magnify "slight injuries" just to have one soldier die within a few hours, to recent reports of pressure on the relatives.

This death already is spinning quite a weave of controversy. The family learnt about it through the media, not directly from the main attending doctor. This one declared from the "safe" state TV, VTV, instead of declaring to all of the media. The National Guard had to be stopped by the family from taking the body to their autopsy facilities. In other words it is all handled to indicate foul play! Unbelievable!

Meanwhile Chavez keeps criticizing what the US is doing to Iraqi prisoners while he covers up for similar abuses in Venezuela. Maybe he should have watched CNN today...

Monday, May 03, 2004

The Intellectual failure of the Chavez experiment
Moral questions in Venezuela, but no way to answer

Monday 3, May 2004

Early in its political career Chavez did carry the good will of the Venezuelan intelligentsia. For example Mayz Vallenilla, established philosopher, founding father of the Universidad Simon Bolivar chaired the committee to call for a new Constitutional draft. Late 1999 the philosopher was already warning the country. El Nacional, traditionally the more intellectual newspaper, did support indirectly the Chavez campaign, and the wife of its Director, Carmen Ramia, was briefly in Chavez cabinet. Unfortunately by the time Chavez named the candidates to occupy the seats in the Constitutional assembly it was clear that very few of Venezuela's brightest would be chosen. The result was an ill written document that became the 1999 constitution that is bringing some significant problems to the country these days.

As it happened, the new Constitution would be the only intellectual effort of the regime, which quickly imploded in a political mess. Even the best efforts of apologists of the anti globalization movement have been unable to bring some coherence to a discourse that very soon locked itself inside revived old and failed recipes from a discredited old style left. With Castro as the only moral and intellectual light, and the sole goal to remain in power, the intellectual decay of Venezuela was fast. Moreover for both sides, since none of them is able to propose a real construct that could bridge some of the differences between the political enmities. Perhaps in such a political climate we should not be surprised at the paucity of ideas.

If the opposition to Chavez has a very hard time to create a project for the country and finds its unity only in its desire to remove Chavez from office, chavismo itself is in a much worse situation. This should not be surprising. The authoritarian character of Chavez does not tolerate dissent and the discussion within chavismo is limited to practical matters such as how to dodge the opposition bullets. The consequences are that the moral questions that assure the good conduction of a country cease to be relevant for those in power. That is why in February 27 2004, Chavez was able to let loose the National Guard on an opposition rally. A Constitution much vaunted for its Human Right advances was finally jettisoned by its intellectual creator.

Two recent events bring to light with a crude irony how chavismo now abandoned by ideas and intellectuals limits itself to opportunism, and even adventure.

The Central University of Venezuela holds elections

The Central University of Venezuela, UCV, is the oldest one in the country. Founded during colonial times it became the haven for all sort of liberal ideas during its sometimes distinguished history. Today it is the largest university in Venezuela and its handsome, if dilapidated, campus is even an UNESCO site for the uniqueness of its 1950 ies architecture and art.

The UCV benefits also in theory of a certain autonomy from the Education ministry. As a consequence of the leftist insurgency of the 60 ies and the radical student movements of the time it has inherited certain oddities such an electoral system of its own to name its main authorities. Of course when Chavez was elected first he did enjoy a rather large support within its community, and many in Chavez's cabinet came from the UCV until the military started taking more and more seats.

But times have changed. Friday the elections for a new Rector (President or Chancellor in Anglo-Saxon countries) were a major defeat for chavismo. Effectively, the candidate most identified with the opposition carried 55% and the only candidate identified with Chavez carried a meager 18% in the first estimations, and this with an abstention apparently lower than usual. Not to mention that to try to avoid a major embarrassment some folks tried to block the election through a High Court ruling.

It should be sobering for Chavez and his followers to grasp that in the UCV, arguably the largest collection of intellectuals in the country, his "ideas" are rejected by 4 out of 5 professors. Not only the chavista candidate gets a lower percentile vote than in the last election, but these professors voting against the Chavez model cannot be accused of being manipulated by the media. If there is a place in Venezuela where manipulation is difficult, it is the UCV which is traditionally not particularly linked to the private sector of the country which prefers to deal with private universities such as Universidad Metropolitana or the Universidad Catolica.

The Judicial Coup advances

Chavismo in the National Assembly has failed to come up with a an organizational project that would be palatable for the opposition. Normally such a law organizing the judicial system, constitutionally an independent power, should be voted by a 2/3 majority. The idea is that it would represent the will of all Venezuelans through a forced negotiation between the political parts. But chavismo has lost its 2/3 grip long ago. Using the 5 Justices Constitutional Court it has obtained a ruling that states that a law that originally was voted by a 2/3 can be modified by a simple majority. Interestingly that ruling has not been challenged by the full court even if such a decision would affect the sitting 20 Justices.

The opposition in the National Assembly put a brave face, but the iron will of the thin chavista majority has led to the use illegal parliamentary procedures to approve the new law: reduction from 150 articles to little bit more than 20 to shorten debate time, calling for overnight sessions that eventually overcame opposition strength for logistical reasons, and more. Finally last Friday in the morning wee hours the final project was approved.

The new law allows the National Assembly to add 12 more Justices to the present 20 ones, thus packing the court and getting a full majority in every of one of the separate courts. In addition it simplifies the rules to remove Justices. These two points are really the ones that matter, the ones that will surrender control of judicial power to the legislative power, just as this one feels threatened and needs a safe court to face electoral challenges, and legal challenges for Human Rights abuses. That would be the end of the separation of powers in Venezuela.

All is not lost yet. There are some recourse to stop such nonsense. But one wonders if they will work out. One would be that the 20 Justices wake up and smell the coffee and declare the law unconstitutional. With the authority and pressure that the Constitutional Court seems to have gained recently one should not be too optimistic for this approach to succeed. Another one is to call 10% Venezuelan to sign up for an annulling referendum, followed by a yes vote, only effective if 40% of the electorate participates (article 74). Considering the fate suffered by the Recall Election process signatures one cannot be too optimistic on that one either.

But what is really striking there is that chavismo has chosen the short term solution to a pressing problem. If for some reason Chavez loses office soon, or by miracle they are not able to fudge the coming elections and lose their majority at the Assembly, today's adversaries would be in position to remove the judges and put a court according to their will and pursue chavistas at will. One cannot fail but be impressed not only at the narrow vision of these people, but at their total lack of democratic values, their disrespect for all the time tested forms that do ensure a stable democratic system: a strong and independent judiciary system.

Definitely a demonstration of intellectual regression.


Let's not be afraid of words: our democracy is in clear danger to fall into the hands of a legalized dictatorship. If it is nice to see that the UCV is finally waking up, it remains that she is rather guilty of not having provided a clearer guidance in the last decade, too content to criticize politics as something dirty. When the intellectual debate is too separated from the political one, politicians lose moral and ethical principles. We are paying the price.


And the Middle Class this Labor day?
Down the pits too, thank you!

Sunday 2, May 2004

Sometimes the small statistics are the most telling evidence. Friday's edition of El Nacional looks at the PC units sold in Venezuela in the last three years. The numbers are eloquent.


YearPC sold in VenezuelaPercentile decrease
2001 268 000----
2002  175 000- 34.7 %
2003 110 000 - 58.9 %


I am not sure that these numbers are a direct reflection of the decline of the middle class purchasing power, and numbers. But certainly in such a drop, home consumption and work place consumption of PC, we can find an indication that the jobs associated with computer usage are not expanding, that the middle class is not buying many computers.

Another piece of data in that article is quite telling. In 2001 the PC population of Venezuela placed it in fourth, just behind the much larger countries of South America (Brazil, Mexico and Argentina). Now Chile (with a lesser population) and Colombia have overtaken us, and Peru is breathing on our neck. Peru? Without half of the resources of Venezuela?

Clearly all the talk and efforts to "modernize" Venezuela by putting PC everywhere are falling quite short. It is very simple, no income.

Sunday, May 02, 2004

May Day meditation
Sunday 2, May 2004

Since yesterday was May Day, workers day, it would be interesting to examine the financial situation of the Venezuelan worker. A simple table would do. The numbers are collected from different sources and I have tried to put up them in a simplified way, and as an average of what can be found. It is not useless to remind the reader that for the last two years there are no real reliable statistics. In addition some indicators such as the inflation cannot be calculated accurately. Inflation is based on a measure of controlled prices and of course the Central Bank cannot measure "officially" what are the real street prices.

Economical factor, indicator, parameterApproximate value
Governmental expected expense increase in 2004 compared to 200355%
Expected inflation for 200423,6%
Probable real inflation outside of price controls35-40%
Minimal monthly worker wage in April 2004, at the official US dollar exchange rate129 $
Minimal worker wage as of August 2004, after a two step mandatory increase168 $
Percentile increase of the minimum wage30%
Minimal agricultural worker wage as of August 2004151 $
Official food basket value for a family of 4, that is, only the food items needed for one month
 247 $
Percentile increase of the food basket from one month ago
1.5%
Growth rate hoped for by the government in 20049.7%
Probable growth rate6%
Percentage of the 2004 worker income as to the 1998 worker income even if the 9.7% growth rate is achieved79.5%
Percentage of income growth that the worker will still have to make up after 2004 to reach the 1998 level20.5%
Official currency exchange to the US dollar1920
Street value of the dollar3000 to 3500
Expected official rate before the end of 20042400 
Employed workers in 20043.5 Million
Unemployed workers in 20042.4 M (23%)
Employed in the informal economy 3.5 to 5 M
Jobs lost in the last 5 years under Chavez administration
1 to 1.5 M


Obviously the economy has not been well managed to say the least. What is surprising is that still 35% of the people support Chavez. In Peru where things have not been as bad and where even some growth has been maintained Toledo is in the 10% range...

Or is it that the 35% percent are getting something that the 65% are not getting? Probably faith.

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PS: (added in proof) Can someone explain to me why the agricultural wage is still below the urban wage? At least in Yaracuy this does not make any sense. And if Caracas cost of living were really considered then the minimal wage there should be twice as much as in Yaracuy. It is amazing to observe that after 5 years of a "revolutionary" government that has devoted such energy to land redistribution, to peasant rhethoric, is still carrying this outdated scheme!!!! Perhaps those in the government that suddenly are acquiring haciendas consider that it is their turn to exploit rural workers? Naah! They are good revolutionaries, aren't they?

Saturday, May 01, 2004

May 1, 2004, Labor day in Venezuela

Today I will revisit an old post of mine.

Next I am quoting myself as to what I wrote one year ago after I returned from last year May day march:

Of course the march was beautiful, a sea of colorful Venezuelan flags ahead of, and behind, us. I took nice pictures. I also took pictures of the National Guard blocking every single street that would go in the direction of the National Assembly or Miraflores Palace. US marines in Iraq were not any better endowed. And people were furious!!! The Metropolitan Police had actually a cordon between the National Guards and us. The frightening thing was that the officers seemed to be taunting the marchers instead of being in clear defensive and non-provoking positions. Confirming my suspicions that Chavez is selecting the members of the National Guard to make them his own praetorian guards. Oh well...

Anyway, I came back satisfied but more worried than in the January marches. The mood was different this time. People seem in a somber mood, more grimly determined. Things are different now. We'll see.


Considering what has happened in one year, all the tricks displayed by chavismo to block any peaceful solution to the political crisis, and all ending in the shameful days following February 27 with the return of flagrant Human Rights Violations in Venezuela, I will pat myself in the back as to my unfortunate prescience.

I include two pictures from last year (I could not post pictures then). The first one is simply the lone Metropolitan Police officer that distractedly separates the marchers from the National Guard. He knows his side, he knows that nothing will happen. The National Guards that then seemed rather armed to me are today even more so. Times have changed.



While we were marching alongside the National Assembly (El Congreso), some of the officers had very taunting attitudes, almost wishing for a confrontation. I did manage to capture one of them, climbing on top of a stone marker to dominate the crowd. Not the worst offender I saw that day, but at least it will give you an idea. Then, no matter how furious the crowds were, they behaved, they still thought that the signatures collected in February 2003 would have an effect. But now...

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