In the Venezuelan war of words how to get to the truth?

Even more important how to reach a dialogue?

During these recent events one thing that strikes the casual observer of the Venezuelan scene is the vehemence from both sides. The government for example demands that all of the opposition backs unflinchingly its action against the alleged paramilitary invasion. The opposition on the other hand has a few voices that would not even consider that there might just be a kernel of truth in the whole business. So perhaps it might be interesting to scrutinize the language that each side uses to see if by any chance one can find clues as to why the information does not circulate as it should, masked by the personal feelings that people have toward the central figure of Chavez.

It is not for me to judge the opposition language since after all I am part of the opposition. No matter what I wrote I would be questioned. But I would welcome a guest poster in this blog if someone would bother to write in English such comments. Today as an example I will limit myself to scrutinize a recent article by Venezuelanalysis.com.

Venezuelanalysis is a web site in English dedicated at promoting the goodness of the Bolivarian Revolution led by Hugo Chavez Frias, Venezuela’s president. Nothing wrong with that of course. After all, this blog itself is dedicated to quite the contrary. The example I chose to look at is Mr. Sanchez article of May 11. Before Mr. Sanchez gets on my case (which would be fair) I want to state clearly that I am going to examine the form of the article rather than the factual contents, assuming that indeed the 100 + paramilitary are what the government says they are.

Let’s look first at some word choices:

Six hundred bulletproof vests were found inside the house of National Guard Capitan Douglas Perez Perez in the wealthy eastern Caracas neighborhood of Prados del Este.

The house [of former president Carlos Andres Perez] located in the wealthy neighborhood of Oripoto

the fact that the neighbors of the upper-class sections where the raids were conducted

Not bad for a one page article!!! What is the purpose of insisting so heavily on something that after all has little relevance? I will let the reader speculate at will.

The other interesting thing is how Mr. Sanchez glosses over significant inconsistencies.

The director of Venezuela's investigative police DISIP, Miguel Rodriguez Torres, announced yesterday that authorities have conducted a number of raids leading to some arrests, but refused to give details on some of the raids in order to avoid putting other suspects on alert.

Is there any “suspect” unaware at this stage of the game?

According to Rodriguez, the vests are part of a lot that was supposed to be incinerated. Authorities will investigate why Capitan Perez was storing the vests in his house. Perez was under house arrest since May of 2003 after he was found guilty of smuggling Chinese immigrants into the country. Rodriguez said the vests were to be used by the paramilitaries.

How could this testimony be given any credibility? To which side does belong Perez?

Now let's move on to the media comments.

Said ex-president Perez in an interview from Miami with the opposition-aligned Union Radio network. [and, two lines below] Perez declared to several media outlets that the capture of the paramilitaries was a hoax

So, what are we supposed to assume? That all Miami media are “opposition aligned”? That Perez declares only to opposition outlets?

Radio Nacional de Venezuela, a state owned radio network, informed that nine other paramilitaries were captured yesterday morning.

All radios informed that, RNV might have informed it first because the government only talks to it. Again, how are we supposed to interpret this type of detail?

"We have struck a blow to the kidney of coup-plotters, destabilizers, and terrorists," Chavez said.

I know I am a little bit picky, but it was the liver, not the kidney.

Again, I am limiting myself to the form, I am not commenting on the contents of the message. Unfortunately when one reads such things it is difficult to conceive how constructive dialogue could be undertaken between both sides of the chasm that now rends the Venezuelan body. The effect of Mr. Sanchez, no matter what his best informative intentions were, is to try to have the reader side with him by emotion, not by facts even if those were irrefutable.

Arrest warrants, a political prisoner again, but still a Recall Election push
The tortured cellist Carlos Izcaray plays on TV while Venezuela is entering the active phase of its march toward dictatorship

Wednesday 12, May 2004

As expected the government today continued the charade started last Sunday. And still nothing that really would justify all the brouhaha. Yes, there are some hints that perhaps, maybe, there might be something fuzzy. But already the name list offered to Colombia only delivered one name with any criminal track record. And of course no plan so far of the Colombian government representative to come and check up the arrested guys.

This of course has not stopped the Chavez administration to issue 10 arrest warrants. The defense minister came to the airwaves to criticize again the media saying that not uniting in front of such an issue was a treason to the fatherland. He went as far as saying that hired guns were targeting people from both sides of the political conflict. He spoke of "serious documents" but none was shown. All in all the interior minister advanced a number of 89 people subjected to legal pursuits.

In spite of all these words, no words for real and needed explanations. For example the exact events of Saturday/Sunday night. Now it is clear from the videos that the whole process of paramilitary arrest, if true, was initiated by chance by El Hatillo police! This detail is quite cute indeed. One wonders why the reluctance of the government to give due credit to El Hatillo and Metropolitan Police. That by itself would give so much more credit to their paramilitary story!!!!! Instead right now one would think that the Hatillo Police walked into the set up accidentally and perhaps forced the show to move faster than expected, thus explaining some of the glaring errors seen on the Sunday morning show. Why isn't there anyone with show biz brains in the Chavez administration?

And let's not forget the communication minister who pushed along the attack line to the private media and alleged some meeting in Colombia, promptly put into the proper perspective by the Colombian general that chaired it as normal to help maintain some order in the extremely porous border. Colombia is not biting the bait so far.

It looks more and more that the Sunday event whether genuine or not will be used to put a maximum pressure on the media or the opposition. To drive the point home, on the same trumped up charges of last time that were declared questionable by the High Court, prosecutor Danilo Anderson managed to finally arrest Capriles Radonski. The super prosecutor has been the one in all the "special" cases that the Chavez regime has needed to prosecute. And now he is not afraid to go against the High Court ruling as the law will soon change and whatever he does would eventually be validated. Thus this morning Capriles Radonski left for jail, as the newest political prisoner. That is his status, as he is "judged" for his intervention in the Cuban embassy in April 2002, even though as the videos from a thankful Cuban ambassador exist (and are profusely displayed in advertisement from Primero Justicia, Capriles group). The catch is of course that ambassadors are hard to bring as witness, and even less Cuban ambassadors to the Bolivarian Republic. But if Chavez was happy to jail the mayor, the mayor's charges were showing profusely their support for their mayor in the streets.

But Capriles need not worry, soon a few folks will be joining him.

However, the other issues that took a back seat for a couple of days are returning to the front scene as the opposition refuses to play the Chavez tune. If the case of the burnt soldiers is not back yet, the Recall Election, what really keeps Chavez awake at night is showing signs of revival. Already on Monday Sumate, the electoral logistic support of the opposition, was reminding of some of the pressing issues to resolve to finally be able to go to the repair process late this month. More daring was the move by Queremos Elegir, an NGO whose aim is to secure fair elections, submitted to the Constitutional Court a petition to respect the constitutional right of the people who did sign and whose signature was rejected without a real reason and thus unable even to go to the repair process. Indeed around 375 000 people whose signatures have been dutifully submitted have been rejected for procedural forms in the gathering process, not because of any mistake of their part such as the alleged mistake of the "similar script forms". Some prominent opposition leaders are in that group and it is just inconceivable to reject their signature as it was often filmed for TV at the time.

In other words the Constitutional Court must give a ruling before May 28. If it say that these people should be allowed to repair then the Recall Election will have the signatures it needs, even if Chavez finds a way to block (for example using the paramilitary excuse for calling a state of siege). If the Constitutional Court rules against, then it will have suspended a constitutional right and unmasked itself in front of the whole world as the Chavez agent. This is crucial as the other pending issue, the conflict between the Electoral Court and the Constitutional Court, could be "dismissed" as lawyerly talk if the Constitutional Court won the day, even wrecking the constitution. At least for some foreign eyes.

Eventually as the old saying: all roads lead to the Recall Election. Now we know really how scared is Chavez. A politician secure in the support of the people does not need to fight so hard and so unfairly. He is lowering himself to the goon level.

Two notes to end tonight's writing.

Carlos Izcaray is a young Venezuelan cellist that has already found success overseas. During the February event he was observing the trouble in Plaza Altamira and was carried away nevertheless by the Nazi-onal Guard and tortured. Actually it was feared that he might not be able to handle the bow of his cello as a consequence of his injuries. Tonight he was invited by 30 Minutos host, Cesar Miguel Rondon for a brief interview, and to play. It was nice to see him recovered even though one could not fail to miss the scar on his wrist. Was it due to the recent events? They were both discrete enough to avoid that topic. Art triumphs, and heals.

To end this with a humorous note, today's Rayma, El Universal great cartoonist. Translation of the legend of the army officer reporting: "Let the President know that the second contingent of paramilitary coup makers has arrived". Indeed it would take to accuse of political coup mongering such a group to match in ridicule the paramilitary of last Sunday.

Back in San Felipe

I was on the road today driving back from Caracas. Somewhere between Maracay and Valencia I learned that Capriles Radonsky, Baruta's mayor was arrested when he presented himself to the authorities for indictment. The prosecutor lamely alleged that he was at "high risk of fleeing the country". Which he would have done long ago if it were the mayor's intentions. The reason why the prosecutor, the do it all Danilo Anderson, said so was of course to try to link the arrest reasons to the developments of last Sunday, to try to make people think that Capriles Radonsky was covering the paramilitary and thus planning to flee the country once busted.

I will write later as I get more information.

A histrionic performance by the Venezuelan Vice President
Or did I mean hysteric?
Monday 10, May 2004

Well, the day continued as expected. A few houses were searched but with no results. Except for some house where a whole bunch of bulletproof vests was found. Again, it is important to restate that for as ridiculous as yesterday show was, this does not exclude the existence of some conspiracy. We could even go as far as saying that the government might have made a show yesterday to find an excuse and cover up while it was doing some serious national security work. Unfortunately at this late hour there is no hard evidence that the government acted for the National interest, but rather for Chavez interest. As I write I am counting 5 searches and I am sure more are to come.

Still, there is a grizzly event: one body was found with its throat sliced. Attributed to an account setting among the arrested suspect. And to deepen the mystery, a bag full of dry uniforms was found with it although it had been raining for a while. And the clothes were fresh, not sweated in. For people that had spent perhaps 40 days there?

We'll see.

The big "clue" of the day was the incredible presentation of Jose Vicente Rangel, the Vice President, that after a few minutes of a press conference could not hold it anymore and lashed right and left.

A few pearls:

First the vice president was worried about the opposition underestimating the news. Well, the opposition, like this blogger, has eyes that see the evidence. The opposition is also well aware that the government is doing its best to grab the agenda.

He said, justifiably, that the presence of 130 paramilitary in any country would be major news, a national matter. Well, it is very simple Mr. Vice president: let independent media interviews the guys and I am sure that we will all be convinced.

He said that the opposition immediately should have condemned the fact. Well, it certainly did not support it. But the Chavez administration is harvesting the seed they planted: its leniency for FARC incursions at our borders is common knowledge. Nothing really surprises us much.

He demanded that the Carter Center, the OAS, the church, the opposition, etc, etc condemn right now and in the strongest term the Venezuelan invasion. This for the vice president of a government that in 5 years has not only never condemned the FARC as terrorists (not that they should necessarily do so) but has even declared its neutrality in the Colombian conflict as soon as it made it to office (which was in a way a recognition of the FARC!). Double standards anyone? Meanwhile the OAS emitted a lukewarm reaction.

Of course, he then moved on the US. This one supposedly spends its breathing time condemning Chavez for its lackluster anti terrorist actions. So the Vice demanded that the US emits right there a supportive communiqué, publicly putting the US ambassador to task. As if 5 years of inactivity could be erased by arresting 50 guys that no foreign authority is allowed to interview to certify that they are at least wanted petty thieves. Someone should tell the Vice that diplomatic notes take at least 24 hours to be elaborated.

What was more interesting was what he did not say: the names of the people arrested. Even though Colombia has offered already all possible help to identify and bring the arrested guys to justice…


At least now we are stating to discern some of the motives of the operation. Chavismo certainly knew that the local opinion would not buy the story the way it was presented. The administration cannot be that dumb. Even Tal Cual editorial today pointed out the clear manipulation, without taking position, giving the government a few more hours to really strengthen its case, understanding how dangerous for the country it is for an administration to botch such an affair.

No, this probably was all planned for foreign consumption. For people that may not have such a clear picture of what is going on here, or would not necessarily trust the opposition in such a situation. The idea can be quite simple: pretend that the internal situation is too unstable for an election. Voila! No more Recall Election! Elementary Mr. Watson!

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PS: we could certainly compare the dismal theatrical abilities of the Vice President with the fascinating and inspiring speech from Mr. Arias, the ex Costa Rican president winner of the Nobel Prize in 1988. He is in Venezuela as a guest for a promotional event. His speech was a model of intellectual and clear vision of and for Latin America. Including criticism of the globalization process and false prophets of all stripes. He was followed in the event by President Gorbachov, also a Nobel Prize winner. Unfortunately he was not so lucky as Mr. Arias, a silly cadena on mundane matters, NOT EVEN on the present situation, interrupted the speech.

Paramilitary in Caracas, burnt soldiers, witnesses that get burnt...
The politics of lies and shows in Venezuela under Chavez

Monday 10, May 2004

I have watched a little bit TV this morning and to tell the truth there is nothing much new or enlightening. The only thing that we can take for granted is that we will never know for sure what has happened in all these events, just as we are still waiting for who protected Montesinos, who shot who on April 11, where are the billions dollars missing, etc, etc............

The government is the real saboteur here. Chavez needs to occupy the headlines all the time. To do so there are two ways. One can create the tools to investigate and one can release the results, reaching wherever and whoever must be reached. Or one can keep constantly changing the topic of conversation, keep committing bolder actions. As the French say "La fuite en avant", the flight forward.

But the opposition is not totally innocent either. For one thing it has lasted quite a long time to get rid of its most unsavory elements and thus has managed to lose some of its credibility.

Thus today it does not matter what one side says, the other one will dismiss it instantly. This is no way to build a country, much less to solve the political problems that are overwhelming us.

Sometimes it is hard to keep one's head clear. I am glad that I did not jump on the soldier Barroso story. This young recruit popped out on TV for his 15 minutes of fame, claiming that he was an eye witness of the burning episode in Fort Mara. But somehow something did not match and I decided to wait for the next witness to show up. That is usually what happens, the dam breaks. Well, within 24 hours Barroso was completely discredited, by himself and others as it happened. A show all along? And who did mount that show? Today Barroso is probably all gone and we will never know whether the "lawyers" accompanying him were double agents.

But sometimes it is quite clear to see through things really fast, like yesterday pathetic show of the paramilitary arrests. A casual observer like this blogger could pick enough inconsistencies to establish without a doubt that even if there were subversive activities in Baruta, these were magnified out of all proportion, at the very least. The opposition of course decried it automatically but for once with justification. Any impartial observer in Venezuela has already detected that Chavez has become quite an adept at hiding negative events by creating a new agenda. And the burnt soldier issue plus the Saturday verification process were too important for him to let the opposition occupy center stage for so long.

Before I close this post I would like to translate the words from Chavez first defense Minister, a general that at least has some idea of what a military subversive operation should be. Salazar's words on the paramilitary:

"debi­an estar al tanto de saber que un campamento de este estilo tiene que contar con puesto de seguridad perimetrica y de profundidad. Por lo menos a un kilometro de alli debia haber un puesto de seguridad, uno ve que era una especie de muchachos reunidos, sera de campamento boy scout pero no de paramilitares"

"They should have known that a camp of this sort should have included a perimetral security observation post. At least 1 kilometer from there should have been a security post, one can see that it was some type of youngsters group gathered in a boy scout camp but not of paramilitary"

No, there is no way to buy yesterday show. The only way that Chavez could pull out this one it to let independent media interview the arrested paramilitary. He even had the nerve to claim that an "important" paramilitary leader was arrested. Colombia has already offered all the help it can and has asked for the names. Of course, nothing so far has been released. In my mind I am sure that some sectors of the opposition are looking at "ways" to oppose Chavez. But yesterday was a show.

Now the real questions is why would Chavez mount such an operation, even if there is a kernel of truth somewhere. This answer will have to wait.

The question that we can answer is why Chavez dares to mount such a show: independent and in depth investigation will never be possible as long as he controls the judiciary tools as he does. Just as we are still waiting for the promised truth comission for the April 2002 events, and the truth on Montesinos, and what is going on in military barracks, and where is the cash, and, and, and, and.....

Evening update: now we are up to 88 paramilitary arrested and even pictures are shown!
Still, we do not know much that is "real fact"

Sunday 9, 2004


Well, at least the government is trying to make more plausible the story from this morning, just as many people now openly say it is a bluff!

Of course a lot of things still do not match or make sense but the dust is settling some.

Let's start with the official version. Venezuelanalysis will offer you the official version in English with pictures. They take this all very seriously of course. We'll see.

Let's look now at other information. There is a lot of it. I will pick some.
The mayor of El Hatillo showed a video of some road blockage and a report of a few stolen buses, just when the Nation's security police started its move to "arrest" the paramilitary. Thus this late night verification check might debunk the first claim from officials that were implying that El Hatillo and Baruta police were covering up something.

As pictures are revealed we learn stuff. For example the paramilitary arrived 46 days ago. We also see that the cabins where they were residing seem quite clean for cabins having seen people living in for 46 days. But that is my own critical eye at work. In one video I noticed that they were getting food from "Danubio" a rather fancy pastry shop. When you look at the pictures of the paramilitary sitting up and tied up (at last!) they do not look like people that had a hard time hiding up. And one wonders who was in charge of the "discretion" plans, because they did look like difficult to hide. Not to mention that it is hard to imagine the paramilitary shown in that picture attack the National Guard headquarters in Caracas next Wednesday... I mean people that surrender without a shot...

Of course, all sorts of declarations have come forward. Some in the opposition are crying foul play, a circus. The pro Chavez side is basking in the glory and happily linking the opposition to Colombian right wing groups, the Miami Cuban exile and what not. They are asking for a whole bunch of people to be investigated and arrested. Chavez himself is the great director from his Alo Presidente, accusing even the media of trying to hide the news when Globovision has talked of little else today. Lies and more lies again.

But this is the crux of the matter. Whether this is a show is irrelevant, what the government is doing is 1) distracting people from the burnt soldiers and the Recall Election process and 2) trying to create all sorts of excuse so as to be able to arrest a few people, people that likely they will have to release as the hard proof never appears. Nothing new really, just show biz on a bigger scale.

Or if you prefer you could consider what Leopoldo Castillo suggested closing his Alo Ciudadano. He suspects that Chavez is escalating the conflict with Colombia, trying to create a war climate that will finally allow him to move to the forefront the "reserves" that he has been preparing for that last few years. Indeed, after Iraq, rogue countries know that conventional armies will not defend them (or support them as Chavez doubts of the Venezuelan Army). However after Iraq it is also clear that an informal army is much more difficult to defeat. Chavez in his paranoia and desire to perpetuate himself might be thinking along these lines and what we are seeing might be only the tip of the iceberg.

Since I went out tonight to watch "The Barbarian Invasions", the Oscar foreign film winner, and an appropriate choice considering the day, I prefer to wait until tomorrow to write what I really think of the whole thing. In particular wait if someone is arrested or a TV punished or closed. What I can say, and readers already guessed, is that this is all a set up. Now why is another story...

A quick update on the "Colombian Paramilitary"

Mother days duties mercifully took my mind away from today's news (I am not calling that a scam yet, though I am sorely tempted).

One correction from my previous post. My mother watching TV told me that there was an area where indeed a few people could have been lodged. 100 + grown men? She could not tell. So this will need to be verified. For all that I know it could be filmed elsewhere or simply some boy scout camp grounds. To be monitored.

While I was driving I did listen to Chavez Alo Presidente and he certainly is milking for that is worth. In particular telling the army that all of this is a huge conspiracy to discredit the Army. And then reminding them how nice he is to them, how much money he is giving them.

Right now, after 4 PM, Alo Ciudadano (the Globovision popular talk show of late afternoon): has started examining the story. They are having an easy time of it to debunk the whole thing, when they want to. But they try to keep cool as nobody knows for sure how much of it is for real. After all there might indeed be some conspiracy and Chavez is just "improving it". All is possible in the land of "Realismo Magico". Just one of the comments from El Ciudadano: (55 young men, new uniform, shaved head soldiers, ducking behind bus seats to hide their faces (even in Colombia captured paramilitary do not hide as much), captured. Not a weapon, not a shot, not a commanding officer taken in the 55 (now 64 I think I heard). And by the way, how did they manage to bring that many people from Colombia? This is important as Chavez claims that they have detected more of such "terrorist camps" in Zulia and Apure states..... Just this, if true, tells us how lousy is the National Guard at controlling our borders.

I will write again, but late tonight.