The Venezuelan results: abstention, division and inefficiency

Let's start with inefficiency. The CNE, from its Olympus, has decided that it will not emit further communiques and the hoi poloi can go to the web page after 3 PM to check out the results. This is brilliant, no need to reply anymore to the questions of these damn pesky journalists that are unable to see the grandeur of the CNE officials (the three of them, since Sobella Mejias is reported missing in action). Unfortunately for us not favored by the graces of the gods, the CNE web page is overloaded and readers of this puny critical blog will have to wait for a little bit longer until I can write up something based somewhat on facts.

The abstention is the one to which all fingers point. It seems that chavismo never got the numbers of votes of August. But since the abstention was proposed by sectors of the opposition we will not be able to use this election as a marker on how genuine were the results of August. I am sure that the abstentionists (?) will be delighted to see that not only they mucked the horizon even further, but they improved Chavez holdings. They achieved zilch. Tal Cual editorial today was quite clear on that, showing a few pinkies, unpolluted from the electoral ink used to mark voters, pointing at each other. An "I told you so" from Teodoro Petkoff that will remain for the annals.

Just like on April 1999, chavismo is going to laugh all the way to the electoral bank.

Division is also addressed by Petkoff as another factor that not only de-motivated the electorate but contributed to a few losses by itself as all the vulnerable chavista governors had their work made it easy for them. My predictions of the table I emitted a few days ago are thus more than negatively confirmed. However the Tal Cual editorial also states that all the governors that had a good record, that fought hard against Chavez and that managed to avoid serious divisions either won or are waiting for the final count to make it after all (Yaracuy and Carabobo in particular). Gee, I could have written that editorial now that I think of it....

More later, but I am leaving you with the Weil editorial cartoon of Tal Cual who shows chavismo (U-A, Chavez no se va!) defeating the finger that dared to vote, without cheating. Right now I am not talking of outright fraud since the problem seems to be in the results that have not been added up, the CNE delaying publications of these results that could make a difference in some states. We'll see how things develop. There is certainly REP fraud already documented but that would have affected mostly town halls and state assembly seats, not governors which were felled by abstention and desunion.

The morning after

So I woke up at 7:30 AM, too exhausted after yesterday. But that is OK as it was going to be a slow day at work. I called in, only to be greeted by the outraged voice of my administrator, not a Lapi fan though she voted for him, telling that she just could not buy it, that in the small village where she lives Lapi had won.

What could I tell here? In particular when the performance of a stunned Lapi last night was not very shining. Is he hiding something? Or was he just stunned by the power grab?

On morning TV I can hear now as I am drinking my morning tea that Carlos Ocariz, very poised and natural, is claiming very responsible that according to what HE HAS in hand, and I remind people that the diverse parties get a copy of the print out of the machine, I saw it happening, he won in the Eastern district of Caracas, Sucre/Petare. He is saying that what seems to have happened is that the CNE has selected some of the machine printouts to emit its "preliminary" results. And he is wondering aloud what will they do once they have to report all of them and they do not match with his.

He also announced that Primero Justicia has become the main political party in the Miranda legislature. Although it is a little bit early to have heard form them, I am waiting for the Adecos to talk. If the results of last night are indeed the real results, then AD is the big loser and paying the price for its ambiguities with August 15 and the divisions that it promoted. But we need to see more results. Real results preferably.

I have to go for work but will be back this afternoon early to work at home and post again as for what I heard around.

One thing happened last night though. By the time I was writing my last posts of the evening, I heard a few police cars and some serious noise coming form somewhere. After it quieted down, the night coolness was carrying the voice of what I think was Gimenez making some speech to its followers. I could not help but think that at 9 PM the thugs that had come to the voting station where I was "auditing" had left with a long face. The chavista members of the table were having long faces as they were also receiving phone calls just as the Lapi members were receiving. Were they at 1 AM "celebrating" with Gimenez? It sure did not look like any festive mood at 9 PM...

Calling it off for the night

On TV Chavez is giving his usual Bull S--- that he loves all Venezuelans and that we are all brothers. Been there, done that, hated it... Then he moves on to speak about the "irreversibility" of the tendencies given by the CNE. And he says that he recognized the "irreversibility" the day after the signatures collection process. Yeah, right, as the OAS and the Carter Center put the knife under his throat. But his aim is elsewhere, he is preparing us for something. Fraud is in the air again, at least this time we were expecting it.

Televen was the exception as it let Bolivar's governor speak and say that he also was contesting the result. It is all very simple, I saw when the witnesses of a given party were getting a receipt with the result of a given ballot center. It should be easy to collate all of them and show them to prove their point. We shall see.

And then Televen went back to Chavez's speech. And the words of love were already forgotten as Chavez excoriated the vanquished. At least now my blood pressure does not rise anymore, so used I am to the same ritornello.

So I am calling it off for the day. I am exhausted but happy because I did my best to do my citizen duty, and inform the readers of this blog. I voted knowing full well the risks of voting, with no regrets so far. Now it is the turn to the governors of the opposition to prove their claim to victory. If they need me, if they have a case, then I will go to the streets. If not, let the chavista night fall on us.

I cannot leave without making a last comment of regret for Uruguay. They voted for Tabare Vasquez, the head of a leftist coalition. The way Chavez welcomed him to the leadership circles makes me cringe for Uruguayans. I do think that Uruguayans are better organized and more democratic than today's Venezuelans. But I have the strange feeling that Vasquez is closer to Chavez than to Lula or Kirchener. I hope that I am wrong.

The other shoe dropeth...

That is it! Zulia's Rosales, Carabobo's Salas have joined Miranda's Mendoza in claiming victory. In addition Petare's Ocariz is also claiming victory, print out copies in hand he claims. All claim a substantial victory.

I have a feeling that it is going to be a long night, and week.

PS: added later. Apparently I misunderstood. The CNE was already accpeting that Rosales won in Zulia. He seems that he is claiming a larger margin of victory.

CNE preliminary results

Strangely late, strangely coherent again. According to what they claim are "partial" results the opposition lost everything but gained Nueva Esparta.

I have a hard time to believe that. At least the partial results in Yaracuy are one of the closest state. Maybe there is still hope.

Most transmissions were made way before midnight (I know for a fact that In Yaracuy by 9 PM most were sent, or so I was told by the guys watching the results for Lapi at my ballot center where I was one of the 6 "from the street people"). So I am surprised to hear that so many results are still missing.

Me thinks that the CNE arranged the results so that they published first the tables favoring them. They have their reasons.

Right now I am already hearing Mendoza claiming victory no matter what the CNE said.

It is just starting folks! Brace yourself!

Time is running!

11 20 PM Venezuelan time and still the CNE has not come up with any communique. Most polling stations closed at 5 PM and the others must have closed by 8 PM. As usual, this type of delays decreases confidence in the results. I am willing to guess that the audit is done in a majority of the centers, after all, we did it here!

San Felipe is quiet. It is also late for us, as a provincial town that goes to bed early.

No other news to report from the preceding post. The TV is stuck on "replay" mode about all the incidents of the day. Amazing how a country can muzzle information!

----

So I will tell you my experience with the audit process while we wait.

I must confess that I went inside the school in front of my place, and not at my very own voting center. I was told that there was enough people there and that I needed not to worry.

The sergeant in charge, taking grand airs announced that he would let only 6 people go in. IT is difficult to argue with a guy holding a riffle but we still managed to get at least 6. But we were six good ones because yours truly is a big mouthed one, and there was another one to back him up.

One table, controlled by a chavista crew, managed to transmit the results BEFORE they printed the results in front of the public, that is the 6 of us that got inside! If readers remember well, one of the assumed causes of electoral fraud on August 15 was that the machines transmitted data first, then were transmitted something back and that was when the print out came. It was of course quite possible to "insert" something in the machine memory that could alter the real result.

But that was OK and after complaining the guys that came in with me, and from table 1, asked me to talk to explain the proceeding to the president of table 2 who wanted to transmit first and print after. But I prevailed thanks to someone finding some piece of paper that contradicted the instructions she had and that were an earlier version. So we moved on and it was all fine. I have to say that I was the one that asked for the results to be read aloud and it worked! Of course by the time we reached table 3 all was fine and went as planned without an itch.

In the three tables the results for Lapi were in the same proportion. That is more than 2 to 1.

Then they all spend almost two hours filling up a boatload of forms!!! And signing them all of them!!! Finally we could do the final audit and all was fine and done.

I want to make a small and perhaps silly comment, but yet worth it I think. When I asked for the results to be read aloud as soon as they came out from the machine, the president did so. The audience of perhaps 30 people was very calm and even solemn. As Lapi crushed Gimenez there was not a single cheer but not a single lament either! Even though there was a majority of chavistas in the room! This was democracy at work! All knew that the results read were the real ones, no tampering whatsoever for that table and all respected that regardless of their chosen candidate! It was very moving. Of course what happens to these results once they are transmitted to Caracas is another story, but we, as citizens, had done our best to preserve the votes of our neighbors.

Definitely the need for an impartial arbiter in an election is the key for a good election!

PS: I was allowed to take a couple of pictures but for respect to the people that worked so hard and that tolerated my nosiness I decided not to post them.

Just back from auditing a ballot center!

I was away for all of this time because I managed to get involved in the auditing of a ballot center. Only 6 people were allowed in and somehow I managed. All was fine there. Lapi won by 2 to 1 and more. From the witnesses for Lapi I gathered that informally Lapi won big in Yaracuy. So did my mayor. So we are fine, I hope, though there is always the 3 AM surprise.

I heard that Carabobo, Zulia and Monagas were preserved for the opposition, and that Margarita and Tachira might have been gained. No word yet on other states, in particular Miranda which was in a very tight rope last time I heard of.

More later, but right now, the CNE has postponed the announcement until 11 PM, usually a sign that the government is not faring as planned...

Now I am going to get some diner and write later on my experience and results as they arrive. But in Yaracuy pro Lapi folks are already celebrating.