Thus I end one of the longest posts ever, and without pictures.
I still cannot go to bed without some preliminary conclusion. And I am putting them separate from the post of the day.
One defeat
Chavismo which supposedly has between 45% and 70% in the opinion polls cannot explain how come AT LEAST 70% stayed home. This in a "democracia participativa" which as of tonight is an oxymoron in Venezuela. Thus I am not bothering translating the term. But there is no way chavismo can wiggle out of this one. Any explanation will either reflect on Chavez as the only motor, the chavismo inefficacy, the inability to ensure votes unless some bribe is at stake even if they like Chavez, and all sorts of equally unappetizing conclusions.
Thus even with maybe as much as 80% seats won chavismo shows more weakness than what it would care to admit. A giant with clay feet?
No victory at all but a view on a less bleak future
The opposition in its debacle sees a few rays of hope, or at least the beginnings of a way to recovery, perhaps even sooner than expected.
Union paid off in Zulia, in particular in Maracaibo where in spite a solid abstention, it manages to ravish the municipal council to the chavista mayor Di Martini. If this is confirmed, it is a serious set back for chavismo. Rosales seems in position to not only dictate how lists for the December election will be made in Zulia, but now his star is going to rise in Venezuela at large. He is the undefeated governor of the biggest state, the one in the middle of the PDVSA controversy and at least the locals seem pissed at Chavez.
In spite of uneven results those who preached abstention have some thing to be thankful of. The abstention is huge, huge enough in spite of all of the CNE maneuvers that it means a certain disgust with the CNE and how things are managed around, even among chavistas.
Primero Justicia run very, very well, where it run. It even got the majority in the Lecherias council proving that it can grow out of Caracas. Small start but a start (we need to see if they get a council person here and there to support this better).
AD spokes people are nowhere to be seen around (Copei did report from Tachira). Proyecto Venezuela lost the majority in its town council of El Hatillo to PJ! And seems to have lost more positions in Carabobo. Thus it seems that PJ did win its encounter with the old opposition. How will this translate?
Now PJ has improved its voice greatly in organizing the parliamentary challenge of December, in that any union now will pass through them, and Rosales in Zulia. Rosales has shown his ability to unite all in Maracaibo and elsewhere in Zulia. In other words for AD, Copei, the united left, Proyecto Veenzuela and some other minor players their choice is either to fall in place with PJ or Rosales or the asbtention leaders who must now start acting seriously. And imagine Rosales and PJ deciding on an electoral alliance?
In its darkest hour, the opposition sees some light and this by itself is quite an attenuation of the stinging defeat.
More comments, and revision of those above if needed tomorrow, with a rested head.
PS: added this morning. El Universal article by Roberto Giusti pretty much confirms my conclusions. It includes also a vivid account of the contrast between busy Sunday streets and empty voting centers, in popular Caracas areas.
Monday, August 08, 2005
Sunday, August 07, 2005
The Electoral Day post: boring Venezuelan local elections
Although I do not think it really worthwhile, I still will be write a post with a few updates through the day. From past experiences, I have found out that people do appreciate this type of info, in particular when they live overseas and cannot vote. And even if they live at home, just to see how voting is working elsewhere, from the point of view of the voter on the street...
9:30 AM
The day did not start very well. I stayed up late watching an old Bond flick on cable "You only live twice", but I am a sucker for Bond movies, even as they are now totally outdated technologically, when not downright silly. However they do reflect something of the times when they came out, something of what people thought the future would be. Bad Russians, not so good Americans (you needed ratings everywhere in the world) and of course rather nice and not as inconsequential as one would have thought Britishers.
Still, when the voting station close to my house opened the racket was enough to wake me up by 6 AM. At 7 AM, desperately tossing around to get back a couple more hours of sleep (it is Sunday after all) the "pregonera" (street peddler) of Yaracuy al Dia started screaming for people to get up and buy her papers. She never does it that early on Sundays! Yaracuy al Dia is the rather infamous pro Chavez paper and I suppose it is some sort of conspiracy to force chavistas to go out and vote.
Well, eventually I did manage to go back to sleep but by 8:30 I was up fixing the coffee pot and leaving to buy the Sunday papers: EL Universal, El Nacional and El Yaracuyano, the almost as infamous anti Chavez local paper that I feel compelled to buy on Sundays, as I cannot bring myself to buy Yaracuy al Dia anymore, too awful. I used to buy both, only on Sundays, but since the Recall Election I have stopped buying pro Chavez papers, as I have stopped watching VTV which I religiously watched, duty bound to inform myself and on occasion my readers. But after August I saw no point anymore in hearing or paying to read the eternal repeats, slogans and complaints of chavismo when I can get a quick summary anywhere else.
Thus on my way to the newspaper stand I passed in front of two deserted voting centers. I have been watching the one close to my home and indeed on occasion I can see someone coming in and out. But the main activity consists on two soldiers and one officer, in their really ugly new Cuban like drab olive uniforms. Boy, are they ugly!
For the record, in August 2004 the lines went completely around the block by 8 AM......
Abstention will be heavy, no matter what they say, even in Yaracuy who tends to vote more than other places. In fact I could not help but to observe that the lottery ticket shop two blocks away had more people than the voting station. Obviously people know where the odds of a better future lay.
2:10 PM
I have not voted yet. It is open until 4 PM.
Or is it?
Rodriguez, the CNE ineffable head with his crispating voice and tone has just announced that voting will be extended until 6 PM. "Due to weather and some logistical problems". Translation: chavismo has trouble to make their people vote and requested two more hours to improve the low participation numbers, as seen on TV. Indeed, the beaches in Caracas sea shore are full; the longest voting line I have seen so far on TV had no more than a half dozen people; here, across the street the situation is the same, people on occasion walk in. Even in October 31 2004, there was until around 1 PM a line of a dozen people. Today, no line, at all, at any given time. In fact the showing across is so poor that I have desisted to try to drive around and watch the other voting center: Globovision is not lying, it is showing what I see from my window.
Now, I will share a little bit of gossip. My S.O. in Caracas has decided not to vote though I am still working on it. However, my putative mother in law who has voted for Chavez every time announced today that she would vote for the Primero Justicia candidates. She lives downtown Caracas, in the Calcutta like city that Bernal has created. All her love for Chavez could not convince her to vote for Bernal candidates. The mess it too obvious, too many homeless, too much trash, too deficient a garbage collection system, too tired to have to be home at a curfew time imposed by crime, too tired of fighting with illegal peddlers for a path to walk on the side walks, etc, and more etc.... We are all in awe! My S.O. siblings have been deserting Chavez long ago (S.O. did vote for Chavez in 1998, first and last time, being even more of a against Chavez than I am, as I assume when one works as a public employee it is easier to watch the beast from inside). Oh well...
I suppose that I should brush my teeth and go vote. For the first time in my life I will be voting in an afternoon: I delighted so much in voting that I always was done by noon. But today it is a chore. By the way, I do not even know the names of my candidates, or what they stand for. It is enough for me to know that they will be defending the sitting mayor whose work is sort of OK. This is what Chavez has done to us, we vote against or for him. Even to sweep our streets. Period.
2:40 PM
I have been receiving messages from people working with Sumate and opposition observers. The numbers would be in the 10% participation around noon, chavismo having lots of trouble to drag their people to vote. Hence the voting extension? Naaahhhh.....
Another rumor is that there is a distribution of Mercal coupons and other goodies in order to convince folks to board the buses and go to vote. Heck, if Chavez gives me Mercal coupons I will go and vote right now!
There is also trouble in one of Carabobo townships, Miranda, where the mayor has to be voted again. Suddenly there were a few buses arriving FROM Valencia with Chavez supporters that have been switched to that district to vote. Imagine that!!!! Nothing on TV so far. So we will wait for final confirmation.
3:00 PM
The soldiers that are watching the voting center across my house are so bored that they are actually helping the rare people that show up to vote in looking for their name on the list. I do tell you ...
I also got preliminary confirmation for the Miranda incident but still nothing on TV.
I guess I am going to get ready now and go to vote and make a driving round of voting centers. See you around 4 PM.
3:50 PM
Actually it started raining so I postponed my voting. Which gave me time to scan TV, including VTV. Amazing!
Jorge Rodriguez just gave an extensive interview to Globovision!!! We all know where the ratings are when someone needs to have their message out!!!
VTV, the state TV, has a small panel of people, all wearing some red on them (very impartial of course). The background is a logo special for the day which looks more like a propaganda item about "popular democracy" than any serious newsy logo adequate for the day. And there are some people that till think that VTV has any objectivity in it. Of course the only long lines shown are those from Amazonas state where there are also governor elections and people are going out to vote. The rest? "people are voting, thank you very much!" and scarce images (you can always find in popular districts little lines of a dozen of people, and if you forget to mention that normally liens there are in the hundred, you might fool a few...
But the best was a William Lara interview, also on VTV. He recognized that although voting was high in popular districts [define high] the middle class and upper class sectors were showing large abstention! I mean, the guy has finally recognized that chavismo cannot count on the people that manage a modern economy!!!! No wonder inefficacy in government is reaching such dramatic levels!!! How come Lara is admitting such a thing!?
Now, before the pro abstention camp chants victory, I do not think that this abstention has anything to do with organization, it has to do with just "I have stopped caring" attitude. Let chavismo collapse on its own! The hole in Paracotos is the perfect omen....
Well, raining is stopping, I am off to vote now.
5:00 PM
I voted. It lasted a few minutes because there was no list of candidates anywhere and I wanted to check again as I am not voting straight ticket (I never vote straight ticket!). During all this time, including the time to consult the list that eventually was given to me from a non descript pile in a corner, my voting time, my complain that the vote I emitted could barely be read on the printed ticket (indeed, it would be very easy for a greasy thumb to smudge my vote and make it "null"), and some chit chat as to how many people came to vote, NO ONE ELSE came to vote at my table. Eventually one guy admitted that of the 500 plus registered voters for that table at around 4:30 barely a hundred had voted!!!! That makes, say, 150 voters in 10,5 hours of voting. 10 voters an hour!
On the way back I drove in front of several voting centers and there was little to no activity. Back home the one in front at the three soldiers at the door, chit chatting. No one inside.
We'll see.
5:50 PM
One of the CNE rectors, Tibisay Lucena, has just announced that due to voting lines and what not, voting has been extended until 7 PM!!!! Excuses, excuses!!! On TV, as I type, she is being questioned and she is answering rehearsed replies. Tibisay Lucena was at the Recall Election time a sub rector and the principal accomplice of Jorge Rodriguez in all the tricks that this one made at the time. She was duly recompensed by being promoted to full rector.
She is lying as far as I know. Only Amazonas has reported any significant lines and that is due that people are motivated there to vote for governor. In Globovision Roberto Giusti is already asking THE question: how come if through the whole day attendance was light, suddenly a few minutes before closing time people are rushing to vote and the CNE needs to keep voting centers open?
This is highly suspicious. I mean, if Tibisay Lucena were saying that in such and such state or city there was this and that problem and then they decided that in those states to keep voting stations open one extra hour, I could still buy it. But when challenged by a journalist she replied something like this: "well, you have limited rounds and we have a global picture. I know what I am talking about". And that is that, no further details!!! B.S.!!! Arrogance!!! Lucena is as usual up to all the tricks she has learned to apply for over a year now!!!
Sobella Mejias? Where are you? This is your chance to shine!!!! Or have you just become a Lucena?
6:22 PM
It did not last long. Primero Justicia has complained about the voting extension announcing that 98% of voting centers are empty and these ones should be closed right now. That there was absolutely no reason to keep them open as by law they should have been closed while the ones with people still voting can remain open as long as necessary by law.
Fraud anyone? As usual, it is the behavior of the CNE, the arrogance of its directors that is the main cause for suspicions. Do they do it on purpose or are they that arrogant?
Things are heating up.
TV, by the way finally showed up the fraud attempt in Miranda township of Carabobo. In other words, indeed, the CNE is being, charitably said, very lax with supervision. If not helping fraud all along. Even when they are winning!!!!!!! Since supposedly it is the opposition who is not voting. Go figure..... Union Radio carries interesting info on how things developed there where the burping governor behaves as your regular small town bad guy, un malandro forajido!
6:51 PM
Maybe I should change the title of this post. The day is turning out to become exciting as the evening progresses.
Sobella Mejias came out and I think I understood that she was not in agreement with the voting extension. Though as usual she tries not to engage herself in a decisive way.
As soon as she shut up, from Primero Justicia we hear that they consider that Mejias has announced that the extra voting is illegal and that they are leaving right then and there for the CNE to confront Rodriguez. I bet you that Rodriguez is going to hide (or already celebrating with Chavez that the strategy to promote abstention has worked and that 90% of municipal councilors are now in the hands of chavismo).
Now my question to all the abstention promoters. So you won, you got obviously one of the highest if not the highest abstention on Venezuelan records. But in a couple of weeks that 90% of chavista councilors will be sworn in and nobody is going, legally, to worry about it. Municipal orders will be voted and we will have to live with it.
So, dear abstentionists: what is the next move?
6:59 PM
Rodriguez on TV. Voting is closed. I suppose that Primero Justicia can go back home.
7:15 PM
I am listening to Jorge Rodriguez. He is completely outdone once again. Taking any criticism personally. Claiming that all he and the CNE did is perfect, that there is no reason whatsoever to complain.
And this used to make a living as a shrink? No wonder he switched to more lucrative activities....
Again, the arrogance of Rodriguez and the CNE is just astounding. And then they complain that so many people do not trust them? I, for one, could never trust Rodriguez. Nobody with such change of moods, so thin skinned, can be trusted in a position where there is so much pressure applied!
8:45 PM
This will probably be the last entry for today as no results will be published until the CNE gives its first official announcement. And there is no need for me to watch results that are meaningless anyway. It can wait for tomorrow. Though Sumate has made a very strong declaration accusing Rodriguez of being a liar, among other irregularities committed today by the CNE. So I might comeback for one last hurrah before going to bed as this unfolds.
However there is something I want to discuss tonight. I forgot to mention that my voting center had no "cazahuellas" whereas we had then in August and October 2004. I started thinking about it and I do not like what I am coming up with.
The "cazahuellas" are the controversial machines where an electronic finger print is taken just as in the US airports authorities do to incoming aliens. Maybe at an airport, but at a polling station? Where people who vote must dip a finger in a stinky ink? (I can smell my finger as type, in spite of thorough washing). And then, how come with so many reports of buying extra finger printing machines my voting center lost its own ones?
This is my explanation. The REAL REASON FOR THE FINGER PRINTING MACHINES is that they allow in real time the CNE to know who is voting and where. Considering the extensive data base on opposition electors courtesy to all these signatures, it is easy for the CNE to predict how the vote is doing and going (what happened on the Recall Election).
Today they knew that centers where the opposition is strong, such as my voting center, would vote lightly at most. What was worrying chavismo was the response of their own electors, the need to have a reasonable participation. Thus there was no need to monitor opposition sectors, to send needed help there to man crucial control tools. It is my theory, at this point, that cazahuellas were sent to all popular sectors, to make sure that the turn out of chavismo would be monitored real time, to give chavismo time to make corrections, to go and fetch their electors, be it from their good will or bribing them with Mercal tickets. How else can one explain that Rodriguez announced that turn out went up in the last two hours? And thus keeping up voting centers? There was no increase in Yaracuy turn out as far as I could see. So, where was that increase?
I am asking people who had cazahuellas in previous processes and not this time to write to Sumate and report it. This might be rather important, in particular if by December they force on us electronic elector registry which combined with voting machines, and cazahuellas could effectively blow away the secret of vote. You can write there, I suppose: info@sumate.org
9:00 PM
A quickie on local impressions (this is a regional blog and I must remind readers).
In Yaracuy ex governor Lapi has bemoaned the lack of voters, as he voted himself. In Carabobo beaches were full, while Valencia and the Puerto Cabello area had few voters. A foreign observer had no qualms in stating that in his opinion no more than 24% voted. In Lara I have relatives that live in a chavista area. Turn out was light, definitley lighter than last October. One realtive who is applying for some government benefit went to vote, least they checked on her voting status. She told me that she was surprised at how many of her neighbors did not bother voting and where supposedly chavista. So it did cut both ways and no wonder the Tibisay and Jorge combo where doing some last minute maneuvers.
10:05 PM
Rodriguez is speaking but he is really not saying much. That is, with 80 % something of machines reporting he still cannot advance an abstention number.... Imagine that..... And forget about an election result. But he cannot repress the data much longer so he needs to make a first bulletin so that the media can start advancing their results. As it is usual in Venezuela, the first ones to know the victors are the media and political party, the CNE (or its previous incarnations) is the last one to know.
An amusing note, Rodriguez is trying to defend the prolongation of voting hours, on emotional arguments of course, since he is violating the law. Each time Rodriguez is pressed on that issue, he replies "why don't you ask what those people feel about that?" Perfect manipulating and indecent reply from someone in his position.
I have a problem with that: there is a law.
You have from 7 AM to 4 PM to vote. Why do people feel that they can decide to waltz in at 6:30 PM to vote and why they must force the volunteers to stay so many more hours of their time? I am sorry, but Rodriguez argument is flawed. When you favor some you start affecting others and this is the end fo fairness. Sorry, but no deal Jorgito. The law states that whoever is on line at 4 PM has a right to force the voting center to remain open until every vote is cast.
On another thing. I did check the abstention in my home state, 32.8 % in October 2004. Let's see what the results are today.
One more update, sorry! 10:41 PM
On TV. Zulia governor seems happy. He obtained enough seats apparently.
Primero Justicia's Gerardo Blyde has just announced in an interview with Nitu Perez Osuna, that wherever Primero Justicia run it carried seats bigtime, even 7 out of 7 out of Chacao, and is fighting for the majority council in Sucre and a few other good resutls here and there. IN SPITE of massive abstention.
[see you tomorrow, I have had it with the Jorgito combo for the day]
9:30 AM
The day did not start very well. I stayed up late watching an old Bond flick on cable "You only live twice", but I am a sucker for Bond movies, even as they are now totally outdated technologically, when not downright silly. However they do reflect something of the times when they came out, something of what people thought the future would be. Bad Russians, not so good Americans (you needed ratings everywhere in the world) and of course rather nice and not as inconsequential as one would have thought Britishers.
Still, when the voting station close to my house opened the racket was enough to wake me up by 6 AM. At 7 AM, desperately tossing around to get back a couple more hours of sleep (it is Sunday after all) the "pregonera" (street peddler) of Yaracuy al Dia started screaming for people to get up and buy her papers. She never does it that early on Sundays! Yaracuy al Dia is the rather infamous pro Chavez paper and I suppose it is some sort of conspiracy to force chavistas to go out and vote.
Well, eventually I did manage to go back to sleep but by 8:30 I was up fixing the coffee pot and leaving to buy the Sunday papers: EL Universal, El Nacional and El Yaracuyano, the almost as infamous anti Chavez local paper that I feel compelled to buy on Sundays, as I cannot bring myself to buy Yaracuy al Dia anymore, too awful. I used to buy both, only on Sundays, but since the Recall Election I have stopped buying pro Chavez papers, as I have stopped watching VTV which I religiously watched, duty bound to inform myself and on occasion my readers. But after August I saw no point anymore in hearing or paying to read the eternal repeats, slogans and complaints of chavismo when I can get a quick summary anywhere else.
Thus on my way to the newspaper stand I passed in front of two deserted voting centers. I have been watching the one close to my home and indeed on occasion I can see someone coming in and out. But the main activity consists on two soldiers and one officer, in their really ugly new Cuban like drab olive uniforms. Boy, are they ugly!
For the record, in August 2004 the lines went completely around the block by 8 AM......
Abstention will be heavy, no matter what they say, even in Yaracuy who tends to vote more than other places. In fact I could not help but to observe that the lottery ticket shop two blocks away had more people than the voting station. Obviously people know where the odds of a better future lay.
2:10 PM
I have not voted yet. It is open until 4 PM.
Or is it?
Rodriguez, the CNE ineffable head with his crispating voice and tone has just announced that voting will be extended until 6 PM. "Due to weather and some logistical problems". Translation: chavismo has trouble to make their people vote and requested two more hours to improve the low participation numbers, as seen on TV. Indeed, the beaches in Caracas sea shore are full; the longest voting line I have seen so far on TV had no more than a half dozen people; here, across the street the situation is the same, people on occasion walk in. Even in October 31 2004, there was until around 1 PM a line of a dozen people. Today, no line, at all, at any given time. In fact the showing across is so poor that I have desisted to try to drive around and watch the other voting center: Globovision is not lying, it is showing what I see from my window.
Now, I will share a little bit of gossip. My S.O. in Caracas has decided not to vote though I am still working on it. However, my putative mother in law who has voted for Chavez every time announced today that she would vote for the Primero Justicia candidates. She lives downtown Caracas, in the Calcutta like city that Bernal has created. All her love for Chavez could not convince her to vote for Bernal candidates. The mess it too obvious, too many homeless, too much trash, too deficient a garbage collection system, too tired to have to be home at a curfew time imposed by crime, too tired of fighting with illegal peddlers for a path to walk on the side walks, etc, and more etc.... We are all in awe! My S.O. siblings have been deserting Chavez long ago (S.O. did vote for Chavez in 1998, first and last time, being even more of a against Chavez than I am, as I assume when one works as a public employee it is easier to watch the beast from inside). Oh well...
I suppose that I should brush my teeth and go vote. For the first time in my life I will be voting in an afternoon: I delighted so much in voting that I always was done by noon. But today it is a chore. By the way, I do not even know the names of my candidates, or what they stand for. It is enough for me to know that they will be defending the sitting mayor whose work is sort of OK. This is what Chavez has done to us, we vote against or for him. Even to sweep our streets. Period.
2:40 PM
I have been receiving messages from people working with Sumate and opposition observers. The numbers would be in the 10% participation around noon, chavismo having lots of trouble to drag their people to vote. Hence the voting extension? Naaahhhh.....
Another rumor is that there is a distribution of Mercal coupons and other goodies in order to convince folks to board the buses and go to vote. Heck, if Chavez gives me Mercal coupons I will go and vote right now!
There is also trouble in one of Carabobo townships, Miranda, where the mayor has to be voted again. Suddenly there were a few buses arriving FROM Valencia with Chavez supporters that have been switched to that district to vote. Imagine that!!!! Nothing on TV so far. So we will wait for final confirmation.
3:00 PM
The soldiers that are watching the voting center across my house are so bored that they are actually helping the rare people that show up to vote in looking for their name on the list. I do tell you ...
I also got preliminary confirmation for the Miranda incident but still nothing on TV.
I guess I am going to get ready now and go to vote and make a driving round of voting centers. See you around 4 PM.
3:50 PM
Actually it started raining so I postponed my voting. Which gave me time to scan TV, including VTV. Amazing!
Jorge Rodriguez just gave an extensive interview to Globovision!!! We all know where the ratings are when someone needs to have their message out!!!
VTV, the state TV, has a small panel of people, all wearing some red on them (very impartial of course). The background is a logo special for the day which looks more like a propaganda item about "popular democracy" than any serious newsy logo adequate for the day. And there are some people that till think that VTV has any objectivity in it. Of course the only long lines shown are those from Amazonas state where there are also governor elections and people are going out to vote. The rest? "people are voting, thank you very much!" and scarce images (you can always find in popular districts little lines of a dozen of people, and if you forget to mention that normally liens there are in the hundred, you might fool a few...
But the best was a William Lara interview, also on VTV. He recognized that although voting was high in popular districts [define high] the middle class and upper class sectors were showing large abstention! I mean, the guy has finally recognized that chavismo cannot count on the people that manage a modern economy!!!! No wonder inefficacy in government is reaching such dramatic levels!!! How come Lara is admitting such a thing!?
Now, before the pro abstention camp chants victory, I do not think that this abstention has anything to do with organization, it has to do with just "I have stopped caring" attitude. Let chavismo collapse on its own! The hole in Paracotos is the perfect omen....
Well, raining is stopping, I am off to vote now.
5:00 PM
I voted. It lasted a few minutes because there was no list of candidates anywhere and I wanted to check again as I am not voting straight ticket (I never vote straight ticket!). During all this time, including the time to consult the list that eventually was given to me from a non descript pile in a corner, my voting time, my complain that the vote I emitted could barely be read on the printed ticket (indeed, it would be very easy for a greasy thumb to smudge my vote and make it "null"), and some chit chat as to how many people came to vote, NO ONE ELSE came to vote at my table. Eventually one guy admitted that of the 500 plus registered voters for that table at around 4:30 barely a hundred had voted!!!! That makes, say, 150 voters in 10,5 hours of voting. 10 voters an hour!
On the way back I drove in front of several voting centers and there was little to no activity. Back home the one in front at the three soldiers at the door, chit chatting. No one inside.
We'll see.
5:50 PM
One of the CNE rectors, Tibisay Lucena, has just announced that due to voting lines and what not, voting has been extended until 7 PM!!!! Excuses, excuses!!! On TV, as I type, she is being questioned and she is answering rehearsed replies. Tibisay Lucena was at the Recall Election time a sub rector and the principal accomplice of Jorge Rodriguez in all the tricks that this one made at the time. She was duly recompensed by being promoted to full rector.
She is lying as far as I know. Only Amazonas has reported any significant lines and that is due that people are motivated there to vote for governor. In Globovision Roberto Giusti is already asking THE question: how come if through the whole day attendance was light, suddenly a few minutes before closing time people are rushing to vote and the CNE needs to keep voting centers open?
This is highly suspicious. I mean, if Tibisay Lucena were saying that in such and such state or city there was this and that problem and then they decided that in those states to keep voting stations open one extra hour, I could still buy it. But when challenged by a journalist she replied something like this: "well, you have limited rounds and we have a global picture. I know what I am talking about". And that is that, no further details!!! B.S.!!! Arrogance!!! Lucena is as usual up to all the tricks she has learned to apply for over a year now!!!
Sobella Mejias? Where are you? This is your chance to shine!!!! Or have you just become a Lucena?
6:22 PM
It did not last long. Primero Justicia has complained about the voting extension announcing that 98% of voting centers are empty and these ones should be closed right now. That there was absolutely no reason to keep them open as by law they should have been closed while the ones with people still voting can remain open as long as necessary by law.
Fraud anyone? As usual, it is the behavior of the CNE, the arrogance of its directors that is the main cause for suspicions. Do they do it on purpose or are they that arrogant?
Things are heating up.
TV, by the way finally showed up the fraud attempt in Miranda township of Carabobo. In other words, indeed, the CNE is being, charitably said, very lax with supervision. If not helping fraud all along. Even when they are winning!!!!!!! Since supposedly it is the opposition who is not voting. Go figure..... Union Radio carries interesting info on how things developed there where the burping governor behaves as your regular small town bad guy, un malandro forajido!
6:51 PM
Maybe I should change the title of this post. The day is turning out to become exciting as the evening progresses.
Sobella Mejias came out and I think I understood that she was not in agreement with the voting extension. Though as usual she tries not to engage herself in a decisive way.
As soon as she shut up, from Primero Justicia we hear that they consider that Mejias has announced that the extra voting is illegal and that they are leaving right then and there for the CNE to confront Rodriguez. I bet you that Rodriguez is going to hide (or already celebrating with Chavez that the strategy to promote abstention has worked and that 90% of municipal councilors are now in the hands of chavismo).
Now my question to all the abstention promoters. So you won, you got obviously one of the highest if not the highest abstention on Venezuelan records. But in a couple of weeks that 90% of chavista councilors will be sworn in and nobody is going, legally, to worry about it. Municipal orders will be voted and we will have to live with it.
So, dear abstentionists: what is the next move?
6:59 PM
Rodriguez on TV. Voting is closed. I suppose that Primero Justicia can go back home.
7:15 PM
I am listening to Jorge Rodriguez. He is completely outdone once again. Taking any criticism personally. Claiming that all he and the CNE did is perfect, that there is no reason whatsoever to complain.
And this used to make a living as a shrink? No wonder he switched to more lucrative activities....
Again, the arrogance of Rodriguez and the CNE is just astounding. And then they complain that so many people do not trust them? I, for one, could never trust Rodriguez. Nobody with such change of moods, so thin skinned, can be trusted in a position where there is so much pressure applied!
8:45 PM
This will probably be the last entry for today as no results will be published until the CNE gives its first official announcement. And there is no need for me to watch results that are meaningless anyway. It can wait for tomorrow. Though Sumate has made a very strong declaration accusing Rodriguez of being a liar, among other irregularities committed today by the CNE. So I might comeback for one last hurrah before going to bed as this unfolds.
However there is something I want to discuss tonight. I forgot to mention that my voting center had no "cazahuellas" whereas we had then in August and October 2004. I started thinking about it and I do not like what I am coming up with.
The "cazahuellas" are the controversial machines where an electronic finger print is taken just as in the US airports authorities do to incoming aliens. Maybe at an airport, but at a polling station? Where people who vote must dip a finger in a stinky ink? (I can smell my finger as type, in spite of thorough washing). And then, how come with so many reports of buying extra finger printing machines my voting center lost its own ones?
This is my explanation. The REAL REASON FOR THE FINGER PRINTING MACHINES is that they allow in real time the CNE to know who is voting and where. Considering the extensive data base on opposition electors courtesy to all these signatures, it is easy for the CNE to predict how the vote is doing and going (what happened on the Recall Election).
Today they knew that centers where the opposition is strong, such as my voting center, would vote lightly at most. What was worrying chavismo was the response of their own electors, the need to have a reasonable participation. Thus there was no need to monitor opposition sectors, to send needed help there to man crucial control tools. It is my theory, at this point, that cazahuellas were sent to all popular sectors, to make sure that the turn out of chavismo would be monitored real time, to give chavismo time to make corrections, to go and fetch their electors, be it from their good will or bribing them with Mercal tickets. How else can one explain that Rodriguez announced that turn out went up in the last two hours? And thus keeping up voting centers? There was no increase in Yaracuy turn out as far as I could see. So, where was that increase?
I am asking people who had cazahuellas in previous processes and not this time to write to Sumate and report it. This might be rather important, in particular if by December they force on us electronic elector registry which combined with voting machines, and cazahuellas could effectively blow away the secret of vote. You can write there, I suppose: info@sumate.org
9:00 PM
A quickie on local impressions (this is a regional blog and I must remind readers).
In Yaracuy ex governor Lapi has bemoaned the lack of voters, as he voted himself. In Carabobo beaches were full, while Valencia and the Puerto Cabello area had few voters. A foreign observer had no qualms in stating that in his opinion no more than 24% voted. In Lara I have relatives that live in a chavista area. Turn out was light, definitley lighter than last October. One realtive who is applying for some government benefit went to vote, least they checked on her voting status. She told me that she was surprised at how many of her neighbors did not bother voting and where supposedly chavista. So it did cut both ways and no wonder the Tibisay and Jorge combo where doing some last minute maneuvers.
10:05 PM
Rodriguez is speaking but he is really not saying much. That is, with 80 % something of machines reporting he still cannot advance an abstention number.... Imagine that..... And forget about an election result. But he cannot repress the data much longer so he needs to make a first bulletin so that the media can start advancing their results. As it is usual in Venezuela, the first ones to know the victors are the media and political party, the CNE (or its previous incarnations) is the last one to know.
An amusing note, Rodriguez is trying to defend the prolongation of voting hours, on emotional arguments of course, since he is violating the law. Each time Rodriguez is pressed on that issue, he replies "why don't you ask what those people feel about that?" Perfect manipulating and indecent reply from someone in his position.
I have a problem with that: there is a law.
You have from 7 AM to 4 PM to vote. Why do people feel that they can decide to waltz in at 6:30 PM to vote and why they must force the volunteers to stay so many more hours of their time? I am sorry, but Rodriguez argument is flawed. When you favor some you start affecting others and this is the end fo fairness. Sorry, but no deal Jorgito. The law states that whoever is on line at 4 PM has a right to force the voting center to remain open until every vote is cast.
On another thing. I did check the abstention in my home state, 32.8 % in October 2004. Let's see what the results are today.
One more update, sorry! 10:41 PM
On TV. Zulia governor seems happy. He obtained enough seats apparently.
Primero Justicia's Gerardo Blyde has just announced in an interview with Nitu Perez Osuna, that wherever Primero Justicia run it carried seats bigtime, even 7 out of 7 out of Chacao, and is fighting for the majority council in Sucre and a few other good resutls here and there. IN SPITE of massive abstention.
[see you tomorrow, I have had it with the Jorgito combo for the day]
Pre electoral musings: NYT crap, abstention in Venezuela and a party for Castro
Tomorrow we vote and today I have never seen such an un-electoral atmosphere in Venezuela. There is no emotion whatsoever in the streets where I live, the little bit of campaign that was made by chavistas having died down yesterday. The papers report that tomorrow will be an almost normal day except of course for the ban on alcohol sales on electoral dates. It used to be that all sorts of restrictions would apply as if the country were on the brink of some disaster with all sorts of rumors flying from closing down airports to strange military maneuvers. One would normally be happy to see that voting perhaps is becoming such a routine event, but one would be very mistaken. In fact, what is going on is a profound disinterest by the population, form both sides, as all know that whatever the result is tomorrow there will be no change in our long national drama. Chavistas will still have to keep looking toward the big boss for anything, even sweeping the streets it seems. Opposition will have nothing to look up to.
Still, I did read my papers diligently today, hoping to find some solace, discovering some deep stirring in the country that might make my voting act a little but more significant. I might have, not by any given article, but by the conjunction of diverse readings through these past days.
Castro gets his own party in Cuba
This astounding picture reported by EL Universal is of Castro with the graduating class
of upper echelon officers (kind of a Masters). They chose, we are told to believe, Castro as the patron saint of the class. The ruckus that this raised was enough that the government, and the army chiefs of staff, had to pretend all sorts of lame excuses that ended up in a subdued graduation ceremony that was not attended neither by Chavez nor the defense minister. But this was of course a sham: Castro had invited the officers and their families to Cuba (paid by Castro of Chavez? Same difference) and lo and behold, a real graduation party was held in Cuba, as the picture can attest. All in full gala drag.
So we have a Venezuelan army class of officers, sneaking by the back door, to have a very contested graduation ceremony in Cuba, under the patronage of the biggest Latin American criminal alive, who among many crimes has Venezuelan blood on his hand. The arrogance of Chavez seems to know no limits and I am sure that we will pay for the daring to force him to move the graduation to Havana where he could not go to enjoy the moment personally, the moment where as a lap dog he surrendered to Castro the last honor that might have been still existing in the Venezuelan army.
The New York Times again its cultural bias in Latin America
The reader might remember that sometime early 2004 I stopped reading the New York Times, considering that the lack of objectivity and understanding on Latin America did not allow me to read anything else from that paper. How could I trust info published, be it Iraq or the movie reviews when the NYT was so obviously expressing its sympathies for Chavez? Thus ended decades of faithful reading of a paper that I nearly worshipped. Fortunately the Washington Post has nicely replaced the NYT in my heart, and I realized even advantageously, but that is another story.
El Nacional has started publishing a week end translation of the Sunday NYT. Thus I do peruse it, mostly for the lifestyle part of it. But today it carried an article on Latin American corruption and how it is weakening democracy. So I read it, even though it was signed by the ineffable Forero and also by Rohter, who if memory serves me well was the one accusing president Lula da Silva of being a drunkard. Surely this explains why Lula comes so bad out of that article. Now, the case of the article is one worth to explore, but the bias showed by these two reporters is just astonishing! Here, a couple of gems (note: I am translating from the Spanish version as I refuse to fork over 3.50 to have access to the original).
… an eloquent sampling of the low quality of the democracies in the area and how little they have changed the attitude of the elites since the times of Colonial Landlords.
Now, that would be fine, except that the two main targets of the article, Peru's Toledo and Brazil's Lula are as opposed to the old elites as one can imagine. Toledo, a native as native as they get, and Lula, a trade union worker who misses fingers due to manual work he had to do to etch a living. And even if a case could be made for Toledo trying to join those elites (and I question the case), such a case is simply impossible to make for Lula, no matter how much corruption is showing up in the PT.
Through all the area, these democrats of second generation [one can sense the arrogance of the journalists!] have resulted disappointing, and their inefficiency and low popularity have allowed for the increase of political instability and economic disparity.
Did they talk of Chavez? Never. Did they mention the high popularity of Uribe? Colombia seems erased of the article map which mentions most countries from Mexico to Chile. Is this right? Not at all as Lula keeps very reasonable polls in spite of the hurricane in Brasilia.
In fact I am willing to write that this article is the smoking gun as to the total bias of Forero toward Chavez. Let's read one more.
Some point out the increasing number of cases as an evidence that the judicial systems and governments are at long last questioning the bad leaders.
That would be fine except that in the following paragraphs Forero and Rohter quickly void that argument. Indeed! It would be too easy to point out to them how subservient has the judicial system in Venezuela become to the interests of Chavez. Better to trash all of them least somebody notices that omission. Forero knows very well that the Venezuelan press has been dripping with corruption accusations, that the judicial system of Venezuela is been extensively questioned, that no legal action against any government official has prospered, with the paradoxical result that the few who dared to push through tend to be the ones going to jail. Even if whenever he gets to Caracas he hides at the Hilton, the chavista luxury headquarters.
Does any one supervise the writings of Forero at the NYT? I mean, this is not even third rate journalism. Some blogs do a better job for free than whatever the NYT is paying Forero.
Fausto Maso lonely campaign
You have to give it to Fausto Maso, one of the OpEd of El Nacional. For months now he has been waging a Quichote like campaign against those who promote abstention. Even today he still does a last ditch effort to try to convince a few that not voting is actually worse than voting even if the CNE is a sleaze bag institution. His arguments are rather good today, as his desperation seems to increase as he sees the folly of his co-citizens, a Cassandra in his own time.
Today simply he implies that the pro abstention campaign has been promoted mostly by the government who thus will not need to modify any of the electoral results as it will get ample victories with 70% people staying home.
Long are gone any fake qualms that chavismo had that abstention could hurt its image. It was all bogus soul searching. Reading in the paper the declarations of William Lara, one of the most soulless representatives of chavismo we can read that chavismo is counting, with Las Morochas, of getting 84% of the seats. I remind the reader that the "morochas" is an electoral trick, unconstitutional, that basically allows the winner an extreme over-representation. This is all well, but the declarations of Lara shows an interesting insight into the mind of the chavista mind. I find it rather obscene that in a democracy someone would gloat about obtaining 84% of seats in a democracy. Clearly, the goal here is 100%. Like all fanatics Lara reveals his self doubts about the system he represents and those doubts will only be erased, or so he thinks, when 100% will agree with Chavez. Oh well....
Putting together Lara and Maso words one sees that indeed, abstention by large sectors of the opposition are only sink this one further. Yet another self inflicted wound. It would have been a very different story if all the abstention promoters were to take to the streets tomorrow. But no, closed windows and turned off lights are the only proposed actions and Maso derides. As if such tactics had ever stopped Castro, as if such tactics would ever stop Chavez like fascisto-fanatics. We'll see Monday morning and what the abstention camp will propose.
Though at least there is already a small consolation prize: it says very little for a "participative democracy scheme" when more than 50% of the people
do not bother in voting. Definitely today, one can sense that if chavismo is still a relative majority, the bloom of excitement is gone even from his supporters. Could that be what Forero is trying to hide by ignoring Venezuela in his latest article? Meanwhile the reader will forgive if some of us see Venezuela more and more related to yet another cartoon masterpeice by Weil. How can we have justice in Venezuela, Mr. forero, if this cartoon is everyday more and more real?
Still, I did read my papers diligently today, hoping to find some solace, discovering some deep stirring in the country that might make my voting act a little but more significant. I might have, not by any given article, but by the conjunction of diverse readings through these past days.
Castro gets his own party in Cuba
This astounding picture reported by EL Universal is of Castro with the graduating class
of upper echelon officers (kind of a Masters). They chose, we are told to believe, Castro as the patron saint of the class. The ruckus that this raised was enough that the government, and the army chiefs of staff, had to pretend all sorts of lame excuses that ended up in a subdued graduation ceremony that was not attended neither by Chavez nor the defense minister. But this was of course a sham: Castro had invited the officers and their families to Cuba (paid by Castro of Chavez? Same difference) and lo and behold, a real graduation party was held in Cuba, as the picture can attest. All in full gala drag.So we have a Venezuelan army class of officers, sneaking by the back door, to have a very contested graduation ceremony in Cuba, under the patronage of the biggest Latin American criminal alive, who among many crimes has Venezuelan blood on his hand. The arrogance of Chavez seems to know no limits and I am sure that we will pay for the daring to force him to move the graduation to Havana where he could not go to enjoy the moment personally, the moment where as a lap dog he surrendered to Castro the last honor that might have been still existing in the Venezuelan army.
The New York Times again its cultural bias in Latin America
The reader might remember that sometime early 2004 I stopped reading the New York Times, considering that the lack of objectivity and understanding on Latin America did not allow me to read anything else from that paper. How could I trust info published, be it Iraq or the movie reviews when the NYT was so obviously expressing its sympathies for Chavez? Thus ended decades of faithful reading of a paper that I nearly worshipped. Fortunately the Washington Post has nicely replaced the NYT in my heart, and I realized even advantageously, but that is another story.
El Nacional has started publishing a week end translation of the Sunday NYT. Thus I do peruse it, mostly for the lifestyle part of it. But today it carried an article on Latin American corruption and how it is weakening democracy. So I read it, even though it was signed by the ineffable Forero and also by Rohter, who if memory serves me well was the one accusing president Lula da Silva of being a drunkard. Surely this explains why Lula comes so bad out of that article. Now, the case of the article is one worth to explore, but the bias showed by these two reporters is just astonishing! Here, a couple of gems (note: I am translating from the Spanish version as I refuse to fork over 3.50 to have access to the original).
… an eloquent sampling of the low quality of the democracies in the area and how little they have changed the attitude of the elites since the times of Colonial Landlords.
Now, that would be fine, except that the two main targets of the article, Peru's Toledo and Brazil's Lula are as opposed to the old elites as one can imagine. Toledo, a native as native as they get, and Lula, a trade union worker who misses fingers due to manual work he had to do to etch a living. And even if a case could be made for Toledo trying to join those elites (and I question the case), such a case is simply impossible to make for Lula, no matter how much corruption is showing up in the PT.
Through all the area, these democrats of second generation [one can sense the arrogance of the journalists!] have resulted disappointing, and their inefficiency and low popularity have allowed for the increase of political instability and economic disparity.
Did they talk of Chavez? Never. Did they mention the high popularity of Uribe? Colombia seems erased of the article map which mentions most countries from Mexico to Chile. Is this right? Not at all as Lula keeps very reasonable polls in spite of the hurricane in Brasilia.
In fact I am willing to write that this article is the smoking gun as to the total bias of Forero toward Chavez. Let's read one more.
Some point out the increasing number of cases as an evidence that the judicial systems and governments are at long last questioning the bad leaders.
That would be fine except that in the following paragraphs Forero and Rohter quickly void that argument. Indeed! It would be too easy to point out to them how subservient has the judicial system in Venezuela become to the interests of Chavez. Better to trash all of them least somebody notices that omission. Forero knows very well that the Venezuelan press has been dripping with corruption accusations, that the judicial system of Venezuela is been extensively questioned, that no legal action against any government official has prospered, with the paradoxical result that the few who dared to push through tend to be the ones going to jail. Even if whenever he gets to Caracas he hides at the Hilton, the chavista luxury headquarters.
Does any one supervise the writings of Forero at the NYT? I mean, this is not even third rate journalism. Some blogs do a better job for free than whatever the NYT is paying Forero.
Fausto Maso lonely campaign
You have to give it to Fausto Maso, one of the OpEd of El Nacional. For months now he has been waging a Quichote like campaign against those who promote abstention. Even today he still does a last ditch effort to try to convince a few that not voting is actually worse than voting even if the CNE is a sleaze bag institution. His arguments are rather good today, as his desperation seems to increase as he sees the folly of his co-citizens, a Cassandra in his own time.
Today simply he implies that the pro abstention campaign has been promoted mostly by the government who thus will not need to modify any of the electoral results as it will get ample victories with 70% people staying home.
Long are gone any fake qualms that chavismo had that abstention could hurt its image. It was all bogus soul searching. Reading in the paper the declarations of William Lara, one of the most soulless representatives of chavismo we can read that chavismo is counting, with Las Morochas, of getting 84% of the seats. I remind the reader that the "morochas" is an electoral trick, unconstitutional, that basically allows the winner an extreme over-representation. This is all well, but the declarations of Lara shows an interesting insight into the mind of the chavista mind. I find it rather obscene that in a democracy someone would gloat about obtaining 84% of seats in a democracy. Clearly, the goal here is 100%. Like all fanatics Lara reveals his self doubts about the system he represents and those doubts will only be erased, or so he thinks, when 100% will agree with Chavez. Oh well....
Putting together Lara and Maso words one sees that indeed, abstention by large sectors of the opposition are only sink this one further. Yet another self inflicted wound. It would have been a very different story if all the abstention promoters were to take to the streets tomorrow. But no, closed windows and turned off lights are the only proposed actions and Maso derides. As if such tactics had ever stopped Castro, as if such tactics would ever stop Chavez like fascisto-fanatics. We'll see Monday morning and what the abstention camp will propose.
Though at least there is already a small consolation prize: it says very little for a "participative democracy scheme" when more than 50% of the people
do not bother in voting. Definitely today, one can sense that if chavismo is still a relative majority, the bloom of excitement is gone even from his supporters. Could that be what Forero is trying to hide by ignoring Venezuela in his latest article? Meanwhile the reader will forgive if some of us see Venezuela more and more related to yet another cartoon masterpeice by Weil. How can we have justice in Venezuela, Mr. forero, if this cartoon is everyday more and more real?
Friday, August 05, 2005
The Electoral Post
So, in spite of a certain reluctance, I feel compelled to write a post with my predictions on the Sunday result. But first let's look at my record so far.
But this time I will not predict much, sorry for those who might have liked me to encourage their hope, or to see me with egg on my face. However I will explain why.
The election Sunday and the campaigns
We are voting for municipal councils. Not even for mayor. Thus by definition these elections follow one or more of these parameters, everywhere in the world:
If you add to this the abstention campaign of large sectors of the opposition, one would be a fool to even dare predict a single council seat. But I am a fool.
The electoral fraud, this time
Well, it does exist, and you only need to look at the desperate last minute campaign of the Electoral Board to try to convince people to go to vote to realize how much the image of the CNE and the trust in elections have been damaged in Venezuela.
But we are not talking about actual real electoral fraud here. To begin with due to the complex nature of the vote, it would be rather difficult to make it in the large scale it was made in August 2004, Carter center notwithstanding. Second, chavismo would be hard pressed to invent votes if the abstention is huge, or if the vote is quite crossed, something that happensa lot in local election where many people are not as bound by party lines. In addition THIS time the CNE will allow political parties witnesses at the ballots and will open randomly at least one table at every voting center for some old fashioned ballot counting (Gee, why did they not do that in August 2004? Would we not be better off today if all ballots had been counted then, even if the victory margin would have been shortened some, no? But I have been expecting an answer from chavistas for so long on this that I have opted to start breathing again).
No, the fraud is elsewhere and gives a few points advantage to chavismo, and I estimate it to a built in 5% bonus at the very least. Here some examples, in no particular order. For extensive details on some of the following points the reader is invited to visit my long post on the matter, a month ago.
The consequences
Besides a strong abstention prediction, one consequence of such a sleazy, unethical, corrupt and what not CNE is that surprisingly barely half of the people cited to preside the electoral tables have shown up. In Venezuelan law, there is a mandatory public service as citizen voters are randomly selected to get trained the week before election to serve as managers and monitors of the electoral tables. A jury duty of sorts. They do get paid for their troubles and employers must grant permission. Still, today the CNE admitted that about half had not shown up, and was even pushed to threaten the no-shows with severe fines.
Of course, nowhere did we see any soul-searching at the CNE as to why people just do not care about the elections.
The arrogance and growing isolation of the CNE is quite a fascinating spectacle to observe as Jorge Rodriguez seems more worried these days at cultivating the memory of his assassinated father, a leftist politician, than trying to give some credibility to the CNE. Nowhere does it seem to cross his mind, in this gigantic ego trip that his psychiatric career should have prepared him to resist, that he is the person that single handedly contributed the most to the image degradation and the disrespect that people have for the CNE. Rodriguez projects such a idea of arranged results that one wonders how come they still leave him presiding that rats nest...
My modest predictions, finally
After having tried to dodge the issue for an already long post, time has come to fess up. Let me remind first that polls do give a favorable image of Chavez of anywhere between 60 and 80 % though the voting intention seems to drop as low as 45% in a recent Keller survey. But let's assume that the Datanalisis results of 60-70 % that so please chavismo these days are a true reflection of the country's mood (Ah! Long gone the days when Datanalisis was not an acceptable pollster for chavismo!)
Thus, if Chavez has indeed up to 70% of favorable ratings and the opposition is deeply divided between voters and abstentions, ANY RESULT where chavismo does not get at least 80% of the municipal seats must be considered as a defeat for chavismo, in particular if abstention reaches the 50% mark, a more than likely possibility.
So, this is what it all comes to, chavismo must win 80% of the seats (I am not talking of votes as it is very difficult to really measure that with the multiplicity of parties and alliances running). If it does not win 80% it will not be an outright victory, and if it drops below 70% we could even talk of defeat! Ah! The paradox!!!! But when you stack the system to your advantage, you are expected to win big, isn't it so?
Will Chavez get more than 70% of seats? Likely unless a sudden change of mood in the opposition happens in the next two days. Will Chavez get 80%? Less likely. After all in Zulia, and many province states, abstention is not likely to be as high as in Caracas where it promises to be staggering in the two districts in the hands of Chavez. That is why the CNE is extending the campaign for an extra day, why it has started a big, if silly and probably counterproductive campaign to stem abstention at least among chavismo. The beauty of all these tricks is that now a 65% seats with 45% abstention would be a much better result for chavismo than a 80% with 60% abstention! I am going to have fun reading the papers Sunday morning, because of course for once I will not even bother watching "election night" on Sunday. What for? However I will drive around using my cell phone to take pictures of voting centers... We will have at least the abstention truth in San Felipe.
- El Firmazo, February 2003. I predicted that the opposition would get plenty of signatures. It did, even though the CNE refused even to count them.
- El Reafirmazo, December 2003. No contest. I got the numbers and I called Chavez bluff ("El Megafraude"). Eventually the CNE managed to force a verification, "el Reparo", but the potential for enough signatures in spite of all the CNE tricks was there.
- After many set backs I felt that the people would dare to "repair" their signatures in spite of all of the pressures put on them by chavismo increasing undemocratic figure. I was right again.
- The Recall Election I missed. I really though the opposition would win but I underestimated the effect of the Misiones and the absolute lack of scruples of the government through the CNE to throw as many a wrench in the electoral process. Thus with more fraud than expected and more money spread around in the streets than I thought, I made that prediction mistake. Though I do contest that 59% number no matter what, at best for me it is 52 to 54%.
- October 31 predictions were already more subdued. I did state clearly my case that the opposition needed not expect a totally unfavorable result, but I was afraid of the role of the abstention. My cautious predictions were in part sustained and in part trashed, and when trashed because of a higher than expected abstention. Note that that time I did not include fraud as a major factor as the abstention of so many opposition folks would help the government. However I think that there was extensive fraud in at least one state, Carabobo.
But this time I will not predict much, sorry for those who might have liked me to encourage their hope, or to see me with egg on my face. However I will explain why.
The election Sunday and the campaigns
We are voting for municipal councils. Not even for mayor. Thus by definition these elections follow one or more of these parameters, everywhere in the world:
- high abstention
- strong local effect as to people political orientation as they are more likely to vote for a neighbor they know than a given political party
- they might actually vote against a neighbor even if that candidate is running for their political party
- there are lots of circumstantial alliances that depend on the areas, so it is much more difficult to discern a general pattern.
If you add to this the abstention campaign of large sectors of the opposition, one would be a fool to even dare predict a single council seat. But I am a fool.
The electoral fraud, this time
Well, it does exist, and you only need to look at the desperate last minute campaign of the Electoral Board to try to convince people to go to vote to realize how much the image of the CNE and the trust in elections have been damaged in Venezuela.
But we are not talking about actual real electoral fraud here. To begin with due to the complex nature of the vote, it would be rather difficult to make it in the large scale it was made in August 2004, Carter center notwithstanding. Second, chavismo would be hard pressed to invent votes if the abstention is huge, or if the vote is quite crossed, something that happensa lot in local election where many people are not as bound by party lines. In addition THIS time the CNE will allow political parties witnesses at the ballots and will open randomly at least one table at every voting center for some old fashioned ballot counting (Gee, why did they not do that in August 2004? Would we not be better off today if all ballots had been counted then, even if the victory margin would have been shortened some, no? But I have been expecting an answer from chavistas for so long on this that I have opted to start breathing again).
No, the fraud is elsewhere and gives a few points advantage to chavismo, and I estimate it to a built in 5% bonus at the very least. Here some examples, in no particular order. For extensive details on some of the following points the reader is invited to visit my long post on the matter, a month ago.
- No control on the finances for the electoral campaign. Chavismo uses freely all the resources it wants. The opposition does not have access to even a fraction of what chavismo has; and let's not discuss the constant blackmail of "if you do not vote for me you will not get access to mission so and so anymore".
- On voting day of course all sorts of public transportation and freebees will be at the service of the chavista candidates. Opposition voters will have to pay for their bus or their gas to go to vote.
- The electoral registry has never been cleaned, even AFTER ALMOST A YEAR FROM THE RECALL ELECTION where among other things we saw famous Colombian guerilla vote. So who can know who can vote twice, or who can vote altogether.
- This also plays against the opposition campaigns as many voters have been moved to other voting centers and the opposition has not been able to access these files (which the chavistas of course did get). Thus making it more difficult to target voters and what not, or even know exactly how many electros are in your district, something quite crucial in small scale elections like those this Sunday.
- Systematic irregularities favoring the chavista parties, such as deadlines conveniently moved, or requirements for registration skipped. The most infamous one is that the main, newly made political pseudo party created just to take advantage of the perversion of the electoral system. As I described a month ago in a detailed set of tables, running under two names allow a political movement to win 80% of the seats at stake with barely more than 50% of the candidate. The approval today of UVE has to be one of the sleaziest maneuvers of the CNE, who has already a distinguished career of sleaze since it was settled two years ago. This approval breaks so many rules, is so unethical, that it should give pause to ANY serious electoral observer as to how sold out the CNE is.
The consequences
Besides a strong abstention prediction, one consequence of such a sleazy, unethical, corrupt and what not CNE is that surprisingly barely half of the people cited to preside the electoral tables have shown up. In Venezuelan law, there is a mandatory public service as citizen voters are randomly selected to get trained the week before election to serve as managers and monitors of the electoral tables. A jury duty of sorts. They do get paid for their troubles and employers must grant permission. Still, today the CNE admitted that about half had not shown up, and was even pushed to threaten the no-shows with severe fines.
Of course, nowhere did we see any soul-searching at the CNE as to why people just do not care about the elections.
The arrogance and growing isolation of the CNE is quite a fascinating spectacle to observe as Jorge Rodriguez seems more worried these days at cultivating the memory of his assassinated father, a leftist politician, than trying to give some credibility to the CNE. Nowhere does it seem to cross his mind, in this gigantic ego trip that his psychiatric career should have prepared him to resist, that he is the person that single handedly contributed the most to the image degradation and the disrespect that people have for the CNE. Rodriguez projects such a idea of arranged results that one wonders how come they still leave him presiding that rats nest...
My modest predictions, finally
After having tried to dodge the issue for an already long post, time has come to fess up. Let me remind first that polls do give a favorable image of Chavez of anywhere between 60 and 80 % though the voting intention seems to drop as low as 45% in a recent Keller survey. But let's assume that the Datanalisis results of 60-70 % that so please chavismo these days are a true reflection of the country's mood (Ah! Long gone the days when Datanalisis was not an acceptable pollster for chavismo!)
Thus, if Chavez has indeed up to 70% of favorable ratings and the opposition is deeply divided between voters and abstentions, ANY RESULT where chavismo does not get at least 80% of the municipal seats must be considered as a defeat for chavismo, in particular if abstention reaches the 50% mark, a more than likely possibility.
So, this is what it all comes to, chavismo must win 80% of the seats (I am not talking of votes as it is very difficult to really measure that with the multiplicity of parties and alliances running). If it does not win 80% it will not be an outright victory, and if it drops below 70% we could even talk of defeat! Ah! The paradox!!!! But when you stack the system to your advantage, you are expected to win big, isn't it so?
Will Chavez get more than 70% of seats? Likely unless a sudden change of mood in the opposition happens in the next two days. Will Chavez get 80%? Less likely. After all in Zulia, and many province states, abstention is not likely to be as high as in Caracas where it promises to be staggering in the two districts in the hands of Chavez. That is why the CNE is extending the campaign for an extra day, why it has started a big, if silly and probably counterproductive campaign to stem abstention at least among chavismo. The beauty of all these tricks is that now a 65% seats with 45% abstention would be a much better result for chavismo than a 80% with 60% abstention! I am going to have fun reading the papers Sunday morning, because of course for once I will not even bother watching "election night" on Sunday. What for? However I will drive around using my cell phone to take pictures of voting centers... We will have at least the abstention truth in San Felipe.
Thursday, August 04, 2005
A hole in one: extreme golfing in Venezuela
It is difficult to overestimate the importance of the main highway going to Caracas from the central part of the country. Not only 40% of the traffic to Caracas goes through the accident zone, but the alternative roads are in such a sorry shape, so congested already with local traffic, that the whole area is simply collapsing. Suddenly the Paracotos exchange where I drive by at least twice a month seems to be the epicenter of Venezuela. With horror people realize that the only two real alternatives, the Pan-American Highway and the small San Sebastian to San Casimiro road will add at least 2 hours to the trip, assuming that you are willing to leave home at 5 AM. No matter promises of the government to have it all arranged within two weeks, nobody really believes it and already prices of food staples and public transportation are going up, just because of the at least 4 hours added to the round trip. Indeed, the caved-in highway might have 40% of the Caracas bound traffic but it has probably 60% or more of the goods to feed a 5 million metropolitan area.
I have not written on this yet as reading the news sometimes I felt that I was hallucinating. First, the size of the hole, and its shape,
revealed exquisitely that the waters had been dissolving the under-road for quite a while without the authorities doing anything about it even though local folks had reported officially the problem in 2004. But I suppose that there was a referendum to be won and road maintenance crews had to don red shirts to fill up pro Chavez rallies. Yes, the highways in Venezuela are the sole responsibility of the central government: neither governors nor mayors can send even a cleaning crew if the Ministry of transport does not approve of it; Baruta's Mayor told us today that Diosdado Cabello, former head of the ministry in charge of the highways and now governor of Miranda had the Baruta cleaning team expelled from the Prados del Este highway in Caracas. Now Diosdado is blaming the weather, the past government, whomever, but himself for having been in charge of the Venezuelan roads AND Miranda roads for at least 2 of the last 6 years.
In all fairness, chavismo is just the rightful heir of populism, having brought the art of empty promises to unexpected heights. No Venezuelan government has ever cared much about MAINTENANCE. "Mantenimiento" seems to be a word crossed of the Dictionary of the Real Academia of Spain, Venezuelan edition. Of course we heard blaming on the April coup of 2002 and the oil strike and other crap. But I do not know, but on April 2002 I did not see any lunatic crews lead by a demented Carmona Estanga enter the Road maintenance equipment park to sabotage it and destroy Venezuelan roads. And the oil prices have been quite high for long enough to have allowed AT LEAST the maintenance of the most important highway of the country!
There is no excuse there.
But still one minister talked about investigating the contractors that built the highway in 1955 under Perez Jimenez! 50 years ago! Blaming constructors commissioned to build a highway previewed for 12 000 cars 50 years ago and now weathering 70 000!!!! This for me brought ridicule to the rank of sublime! Or was it an hallucination? What next? George Bush directed the probe on the comet to make sure a chunk of it would strike some Venezuelan highway?
No, this is just yet another example of the incompetence of Chavez administration, an incompetence that even Chavez tries to deride on his Sunday comedy hours by yelling at his ministers who he has the indecency not to
fire on the spot, and who do not have the dignity to resign, probably too busy cashing in at the cash register while the country literally falls apart and people like me drive everyday putting our lives more and more at risk. (Chavez military boot to his puppet ministers on Sundays: "you are incompetent!"; cartoonist Weil at his most brilliant! And read Petkoff editorial translated by Miguel)
But the only concern here is to gain votes distributing small grants or substantial briberies. I have been driving that highway for the past 7 years, at least twice a month and I am an eye witness to its low but steady degradation. I have seen how the National Guard, whose responsibility it is, allowed squatters settle along the highway just as if it were some Small Town, Venezuela. Did it ever occur to them that dramatically increasing sewage waste around, and under, the talus of the highway this one might weaken? Because I never saw any National Guard directing the works to install sewage at all the multi-squatting points ("invasiones") that you can count now by the dozens between Caracas and Valencia. I have seen illegal restaurants, rest stops, vendors stalls, and what not bloom. Where was the National Guard? Selling cabbage at Mercal? How much did they cash in to allow these people to put at risk not only my life, the live of hundred of thousand of lives of drivers, but the well being of 5 million of Caracas denizens? Last time I checked the National Guard was only under the orders of Chavez. But maybe I am confusing the National Guard with the Nazional Guard whose mission is only to ensure the safety of the glorious revolution and its even more gloriouser leader.(1)
No, there is no excuse for chavismo, even if it only followed the tradition of populism in Venezuela: only pays for what might bring votes from the stupid downtrodden masses, and keep them stupid and downtrodden so you keep getting elected and re-elected.
Next Sunday we have elections, I hear from my window the bullhorn of chavista campaign in town. All the campaign, for the guys that fix my street pot holes, that pick up the garbage, that sweep the streets, that pant trees in the parks, is done and centered in the name of Chavez, with speeches resemble the apocalyptic tune of any of Chavez speech, and only referring to him. Sometimes I wonder if Chavez is going to come and sweep my street. I must be hallucinating again.
That is why this gaping hole is such a symbolic hole-in-one to describe how low we have fallen, and how deeper we can still go. And meanwhile there are dick-heads that discuss whether the shopping levels at Caracas malls is going up to 2001 levels, whether increased car sales are a good sign, whether a Mercal should open in Chacao, whether we should go vote or not. The way things are going, with no roads the malls will be empty of goods, the cars will have nowhere to go, and voting will be irrelevant. Shit! Am I the only one that thinks that way, that worries about real issues of collective safety and prosperity? Am I hallucinating whether I watch VTV or Globovision?
¡No me jodas Disodado! ¡Bótalos o cállate, Hugo!
=== === === === === === === ===
(1)Somepeople are not afraid to put the blame on an over militarized public adminsitration, with no flexibility, no creativity, trained to wait for orders from above. I heartily agree, my dislike for soldiers and generals increasing daily. Los Milicos!
I have not written on this yet as reading the news sometimes I felt that I was hallucinating. First, the size of the hole, and its shape,
revealed exquisitely that the waters had been dissolving the under-road for quite a while without the authorities doing anything about it even though local folks had reported officially the problem in 2004. But I suppose that there was a referendum to be won and road maintenance crews had to don red shirts to fill up pro Chavez rallies. Yes, the highways in Venezuela are the sole responsibility of the central government: neither governors nor mayors can send even a cleaning crew if the Ministry of transport does not approve of it; Baruta's Mayor told us today that Diosdado Cabello, former head of the ministry in charge of the highways and now governor of Miranda had the Baruta cleaning team expelled from the Prados del Este highway in Caracas. Now Diosdado is blaming the weather, the past government, whomever, but himself for having been in charge of the Venezuelan roads AND Miranda roads for at least 2 of the last 6 years.
In all fairness, chavismo is just the rightful heir of populism, having brought the art of empty promises to unexpected heights. No Venezuelan government has ever cared much about MAINTENANCE. "Mantenimiento" seems to be a word crossed of the Dictionary of the Real Academia of Spain, Venezuelan edition. Of course we heard blaming on the April coup of 2002 and the oil strike and other crap. But I do not know, but on April 2002 I did not see any lunatic crews lead by a demented Carmona Estanga enter the Road maintenance equipment park to sabotage it and destroy Venezuelan roads. And the oil prices have been quite high for long enough to have allowed AT LEAST the maintenance of the most important highway of the country!
There is no excuse there.
But still one minister talked about investigating the contractors that built the highway in 1955 under Perez Jimenez! 50 years ago! Blaming constructors commissioned to build a highway previewed for 12 000 cars 50 years ago and now weathering 70 000!!!! This for me brought ridicule to the rank of sublime! Or was it an hallucination? What next? George Bush directed the probe on the comet to make sure a chunk of it would strike some Venezuelan highway?
No, this is just yet another example of the incompetence of Chavez administration, an incompetence that even Chavez tries to deride on his Sunday comedy hours by yelling at his ministers who he has the indecency not to
fire on the spot, and who do not have the dignity to resign, probably too busy cashing in at the cash register while the country literally falls apart and people like me drive everyday putting our lives more and more at risk. (Chavez military boot to his puppet ministers on Sundays: "you are incompetent!"; cartoonist Weil at his most brilliant! And read Petkoff editorial translated by Miguel)But the only concern here is to gain votes distributing small grants or substantial briberies. I have been driving that highway for the past 7 years, at least twice a month and I am an eye witness to its low but steady degradation. I have seen how the National Guard, whose responsibility it is, allowed squatters settle along the highway just as if it were some Small Town, Venezuela. Did it ever occur to them that dramatically increasing sewage waste around, and under, the talus of the highway this one might weaken? Because I never saw any National Guard directing the works to install sewage at all the multi-squatting points ("invasiones") that you can count now by the dozens between Caracas and Valencia. I have seen illegal restaurants, rest stops, vendors stalls, and what not bloom. Where was the National Guard? Selling cabbage at Mercal? How much did they cash in to allow these people to put at risk not only my life, the live of hundred of thousand of lives of drivers, but the well being of 5 million of Caracas denizens? Last time I checked the National Guard was only under the orders of Chavez. But maybe I am confusing the National Guard with the Nazional Guard whose mission is only to ensure the safety of the glorious revolution and its even more gloriouser leader.(1)
No, there is no excuse for chavismo, even if it only followed the tradition of populism in Venezuela: only pays for what might bring votes from the stupid downtrodden masses, and keep them stupid and downtrodden so you keep getting elected and re-elected.
Next Sunday we have elections, I hear from my window the bullhorn of chavista campaign in town. All the campaign, for the guys that fix my street pot holes, that pick up the garbage, that sweep the streets, that pant trees in the parks, is done and centered in the name of Chavez, with speeches resemble the apocalyptic tune of any of Chavez speech, and only referring to him. Sometimes I wonder if Chavez is going to come and sweep my street. I must be hallucinating again.
That is why this gaping hole is such a symbolic hole-in-one to describe how low we have fallen, and how deeper we can still go. And meanwhile there are dick-heads that discuss whether the shopping levels at Caracas malls is going up to 2001 levels, whether increased car sales are a good sign, whether a Mercal should open in Chacao, whether we should go vote or not. The way things are going, with no roads the malls will be empty of goods, the cars will have nowhere to go, and voting will be irrelevant. Shit! Am I the only one that thinks that way, that worries about real issues of collective safety and prosperity? Am I hallucinating whether I watch VTV or Globovision?
¡No me jodas Disodado! ¡Bótalos o cállate, Hugo!
=== === === === === === === ===
(1)Somepeople are not afraid to put the blame on an over militarized public adminsitration, with no flexibility, no creativity, trained to wait for orders from above. I heartily agree, my dislike for soldiers and generals increasing daily. Los Milicos!
Wednesday, August 03, 2005
Chavez diplomatic set backs piling up
I should be writing about the sad electoral perspective in Venezuela, which is making a mockery of democracy no matter who wins. But there are so many other interesting things to discuss that will affect any of the winners of next Sunday (and next December) that I prefer to write on them. The one that catches my fancy tonight is the recent series of Venezuelan, or rather Chavez, diplomatic failures.
Hugo Chavez, president of the bolibabana republik thinks that with the fat check book courtesy of Iraq problems and huge oil appetites of China, and now India, he can buy his way to world class leadership. Sure, he does also present ideas that are very fashionable in Porto Alegre and the streets of Davos or Seattle, but let's say that all indicates that he prefers the check book diplomacy. Unfortunately it does not seem to work very well.
Sure enough, landing in, say, Argentina to buy 500 USD millions of bad debt and shopping for some shipping does help Kirchner forget his displeasure at watching shooting of civilians in Caracas streets on February 27 2004 while he was visiting (1). But there is a limit as to what Kirchner or Lula in Brazil (who Chavez will be visiting soon to "order" a couple of dozens of oil tankers WITHOUT any bidding -2-) are willing to do to tolerate from Chavez. See, Kirchner and Lula are from the serious left, the one that agrees with nasty capitalists that the best social program is still a stable job with a decent pay check. One cannot blame them from smiling at Chavez in spite of their reticence: after all, shipyard do create lots of Argentinean or Brazilian stable jobs. But one is allowed to consider thinking that Chavez is starting to find Lula rather expensive lately, not to matter of a slightly tarnished image. So Chavez advisers turned him back to smaller, cheaper targets.
One idea that failed as soon as it was applied was the PetroCaribe summit or Puerto La Cruz, a few weeks ago (3). Trying to use the presence of Fidel Castro "as a last minute appearance due to the importance of the summit" Chavez tried to impose a new oil venture where all small Caribbean countries would participate, get cheaper oil, and eventually join a trade association, ALBA, promoted by Venezuela and Castro to counter any US proposed trade deal. Well, it did not work as planned as the two richest Caribbean countries said "no thanks!" Trinidad and Barbados have a much higher income than Venezuela, a much higher idea of what their country should be about, a much clearer vision of what is good for their citizens rather than their leaders. And that was that, poof! the grand PetroCaribe. Chavez will have to settle for the smaller version.
But Chavez was not going to let this setback stop him. After all, basking on Castro sucking up to him has given him the idea that other leaders should also do that (Did it ever occur to Chavez that Castro being subsidized by Chavez at enormous costs might actually be a victory of Castro diplomacy rather than Chavez? That the one taken for a ride was not Castro?). Not giving up on sinking the CAFTA accord of some Central America countries with the USA Chavez tried to force a Central America summit to include a reference to PetroCaribe and to ALBA (4). He did get something on PetroCaribe (who would refuse cheaper oil?) but ALBA was crossed out of the agreement (did anyone told Chavez that several countries had already signed up on CAFTA and that Congress just approved it?). A furious Chavez , like a spoiled brat that will play only with his toys and his rules, decided to shun the Panama meeting.
But that was unfortunately not all. Still ignoring totally that diplomatic victories are the result of long and patient diplomatic negotiations by professional players, Chavez tried to launch at the last minute its own candidate at the BID (IDB) (5). Ex-finance minister Rojas was the chosen victim as the only financial person of any caliber that the bolivarian revolution could send as a candidate. That failed so badly that Rojas candidacy had to be removed quite fast and the long planned Colombian candidate, Moreno, won without trouble. As un-bolivarian a candidate as one can think of: he likes clear accounts and balanced sheets.
But Chavez big mouth, probably infuriated by his foreign set backs, did play a further trick on him. In some fiery speech, long and fiery speeches that he is unable to control as Castro has learn to do so well, Chavez announced that the Latin American countries should not attend any further all-Americas summit meeting if Cuba was not reintegrated (6). Although many countries would like Cuba back in, even with the unpleasant Castro, the Chavez shout has been received with a deafening silence. All bets are that Chavez will attend, even if Panama was the first time he missed one of these summits that he so criticizes but so loves to attend, with sniffing dogs and usually the largest delegations of any LatAm country.
And so it goes, personal diplomacy of the worst style with the most awful results, not only for the Venezuelan people whose opinion is not consulted on that matter, but apparently with no more success for the its glorious leader.
=== === === ===
(1) In this infamous date a delegation of opposition marchers was shot down in their attempt to bring a letter to a group of world leaders including president Kirchner. The Argentinean president who early had refused to meet opposition leader, invited them to his embassy for a long meeting and left early that summit.
(2) Reported in El Nacional, with many details, unfortunately by subscription.
(3) PetroCaribe would be a subsidiary of Venezuela state oil company, PDVSA, as a special company to serve the Caribbean area, with lower oil prices due to the elimination of intermediaries. A good initiative indeed if it were not for the fine print on it.
(4) CAFTA is part of the series of free trade deals that the US is trying to set across the Americas. There is certainly many things to criticize on the strong arm tactics of some of the US negotiators, but at least there is a negotiation taking place and no country is forced into them. CAFTA just passed in the US and the Dominican Republic is about to join it in spite of Venezuela's best efforts to block it. ALBA is the counter offer of Chavez. It is structured around Venezuela and Cuba, its only members so far, with rather poor offerings besides Venezuelan oil, not to mention an insignificant market when one can opt for the US one! But Chavez and Castro forge ahead, already holding the first ALBA sports meeting!
(5) The BID is the Inter American Development Bank, an institution that channels the help money coming mostly from Europe and the US. Europe and the US are not going to put their tax monies in the hands of some bolivarian dealer. The miscalculation of Chavez there was dramatic!
(6) Cuba has been expelled from the OAS in the 60ies for its open intervention in other countries affairs. Something that might eventually happen to Chavez as he keeps meddling, at least with his mouth, in Bolivia, Colombia and Ecuador.
Hugo Chavez, president of the bolibabana republik thinks that with the fat check book courtesy of Iraq problems and huge oil appetites of China, and now India, he can buy his way to world class leadership. Sure, he does also present ideas that are very fashionable in Porto Alegre and the streets of Davos or Seattle, but let's say that all indicates that he prefers the check book diplomacy. Unfortunately it does not seem to work very well.
Sure enough, landing in, say, Argentina to buy 500 USD millions of bad debt and shopping for some shipping does help Kirchner forget his displeasure at watching shooting of civilians in Caracas streets on February 27 2004 while he was visiting (1). But there is a limit as to what Kirchner or Lula in Brazil (who Chavez will be visiting soon to "order" a couple of dozens of oil tankers WITHOUT any bidding -2-) are willing to do to tolerate from Chavez. See, Kirchner and Lula are from the serious left, the one that agrees with nasty capitalists that the best social program is still a stable job with a decent pay check. One cannot blame them from smiling at Chavez in spite of their reticence: after all, shipyard do create lots of Argentinean or Brazilian stable jobs. But one is allowed to consider thinking that Chavez is starting to find Lula rather expensive lately, not to matter of a slightly tarnished image. So Chavez advisers turned him back to smaller, cheaper targets.
One idea that failed as soon as it was applied was the PetroCaribe summit or Puerto La Cruz, a few weeks ago (3). Trying to use the presence of Fidel Castro "as a last minute appearance due to the importance of the summit" Chavez tried to impose a new oil venture where all small Caribbean countries would participate, get cheaper oil, and eventually join a trade association, ALBA, promoted by Venezuela and Castro to counter any US proposed trade deal. Well, it did not work as planned as the two richest Caribbean countries said "no thanks!" Trinidad and Barbados have a much higher income than Venezuela, a much higher idea of what their country should be about, a much clearer vision of what is good for their citizens rather than their leaders. And that was that, poof! the grand PetroCaribe. Chavez will have to settle for the smaller version.
But Chavez was not going to let this setback stop him. After all, basking on Castro sucking up to him has given him the idea that other leaders should also do that (Did it ever occur to Chavez that Castro being subsidized by Chavez at enormous costs might actually be a victory of Castro diplomacy rather than Chavez? That the one taken for a ride was not Castro?). Not giving up on sinking the CAFTA accord of some Central America countries with the USA Chavez tried to force a Central America summit to include a reference to PetroCaribe and to ALBA (4). He did get something on PetroCaribe (who would refuse cheaper oil?) but ALBA was crossed out of the agreement (did anyone told Chavez that several countries had already signed up on CAFTA and that Congress just approved it?). A furious Chavez , like a spoiled brat that will play only with his toys and his rules, decided to shun the Panama meeting.
But that was unfortunately not all. Still ignoring totally that diplomatic victories are the result of long and patient diplomatic negotiations by professional players, Chavez tried to launch at the last minute its own candidate at the BID (IDB) (5). Ex-finance minister Rojas was the chosen victim as the only financial person of any caliber that the bolivarian revolution could send as a candidate. That failed so badly that Rojas candidacy had to be removed quite fast and the long planned Colombian candidate, Moreno, won without trouble. As un-bolivarian a candidate as one can think of: he likes clear accounts and balanced sheets.
But Chavez big mouth, probably infuriated by his foreign set backs, did play a further trick on him. In some fiery speech, long and fiery speeches that he is unable to control as Castro has learn to do so well, Chavez announced that the Latin American countries should not attend any further all-Americas summit meeting if Cuba was not reintegrated (6). Although many countries would like Cuba back in, even with the unpleasant Castro, the Chavez shout has been received with a deafening silence. All bets are that Chavez will attend, even if Panama was the first time he missed one of these summits that he so criticizes but so loves to attend, with sniffing dogs and usually the largest delegations of any LatAm country.
And so it goes, personal diplomacy of the worst style with the most awful results, not only for the Venezuelan people whose opinion is not consulted on that matter, but apparently with no more success for the its glorious leader.
=== === === ===
(1) In this infamous date a delegation of opposition marchers was shot down in their attempt to bring a letter to a group of world leaders including president Kirchner. The Argentinean president who early had refused to meet opposition leader, invited them to his embassy for a long meeting and left early that summit.
(2) Reported in El Nacional, with many details, unfortunately by subscription.
(3) PetroCaribe would be a subsidiary of Venezuela state oil company, PDVSA, as a special company to serve the Caribbean area, with lower oil prices due to the elimination of intermediaries. A good initiative indeed if it were not for the fine print on it.
(4) CAFTA is part of the series of free trade deals that the US is trying to set across the Americas. There is certainly many things to criticize on the strong arm tactics of some of the US negotiators, but at least there is a negotiation taking place and no country is forced into them. CAFTA just passed in the US and the Dominican Republic is about to join it in spite of Venezuela's best efforts to block it. ALBA is the counter offer of Chavez. It is structured around Venezuela and Cuba, its only members so far, with rather poor offerings besides Venezuelan oil, not to mention an insignificant market when one can opt for the US one! But Chavez and Castro forge ahead, already holding the first ALBA sports meeting!
(5) The BID is the Inter American Development Bank, an institution that channels the help money coming mostly from Europe and the US. Europe and the US are not going to put their tax monies in the hands of some bolivarian dealer. The miscalculation of Chavez there was dramatic!
(6) Cuba has been expelled from the OAS in the 60ies for its open intervention in other countries affairs. Something that might eventually happen to Chavez as he keeps meddling, at least with his mouth, in Bolivia, Colombia and Ecuador.
Tuesday, August 02, 2005
My right to vote
Next Sunday there are local elections, just for the town hall councils. Not even the mayors. And thus, even in the best of the circumstances, these elections who should actually be the most important of all (there are about the guys that pick up the garbage and sweep the street on your door step) are expected to have a high abstention number, even reaching a 50% or more!
Yet, some people are making a campaign to promote further abstention, as if this would solve the problems of Venezuela. Although I do not agree with them, they do have, for once, a point. Let's look, in a simple and hopefully objective way, what is it all about.
The electoral condition
There has been enough evidence presented to affirm that the Venezuelan electoral system is pretty close to a sham (here, here and here, for example) That is, for the opposition to win, 50% + 1 is not enough. The machinery, and resources, and finances of the state are now all in gear to support any candidate that runs in Chavez name. The official advantage is simply obscene, no matter what the opposition does, plans, runs on. Something that even grudgingly is acknowledged in the OAS and Carter Center reports for the August 2004 referendum. Well, if things were already bad then, one thing is certain: it has not improved at all. If it is not as obvious for the casual external observer it is simply due to the fact that opposition disarray exempts the government from requiring applying all the advantages it has forged. But make no mistake, as soon as any significant challenge to Chavez rule raises its electoral head, the crushing machinery will be activated.
The abstention option
The argument advanced by abstention promoters is of course that if one participates in something so obviously rigged, one would thus be lending its good name to the regime, even if voting against all of Chavez list of candidates. Thus the option is for all to stay home and demonstrate with empty street, with the absence of lines at polling stations that all of Chavez support is just a show, that he has no majority in the country, never had.
It is easy to punch holes in this theory. To begin with, Chavez does not care about abstention: the 1999 constitution is based on the 1999 April referendum where the opposition advocated for abstention since the referendum called was illegal; and still with less than 50% of electors voting Yes, the election for a new constitutional assembly went ahead in July. One would wonder as to whether the abstention promoters do remember this not so long ago moment. So, whether 60% vote on Sunday or only 30%, the only thing that matters for Chavez is that he gets 60% or more of the cast ballots.
More holes can be punched. For example, how could be abstention alone be successful, in particular in an election which all know, in every country, that it has high rates of no shows? Further, abstention alone is not enough. The people that want to prove their protest must be out on election day, protesting at street corners, demonstrating that there are more people demonstrating than people voting. But this blogger sees no sign of such massive protest preparation, just mostly politicians with little to lose, some to gain if the abstention is truly impressive. And it will not as there is always the possibility that the CNE "arranges things", not to mention that chavismo will ferry people to the polling stations if they want to ever cash on a Mision again. And let me remind them that even in the lowest polls chavismo still runs a 45% and is united.
Then comes the last, and really only argument: personal ethics, the inability to go with such a sham exercise. Nice indeed and I share it. But unfortunately by itself it will not get us rid of the nightmare we are living under. We are facing an enemy with no ethics, no scruples. That does not mean we must become sleaze bags, but ethics do not impress chavistas who only take advantage of it. Foreign observers might be more sympathetic to ethics, but that will still not land the marines in La Güaira.
The voting option
This time this option is hardly more palatable. Assuming that one thinks that voting still can do something positive, the idea of supporting the political parties that behaved so lousily these past few years, that failed to apologize for their errors through the 2004 campaign and for accepting unacceptable rules for the referendum, that refused to renew their discredited leadership, that claim fraud but at the same time asked us to vote in October as if nothing, not even pursuing their initial fraud claim, is truly discouraging.
Yet, can we abandon the few mayors still dedicated to preserve our immediate living spaces from the abuse, incompetence and down right larceny? Can we even abandon our right to vote to a regime that has made mockery of a democracy to remain in power against all odds and all infamy?
What we should have done?
Simply call to vote, even if not quite united, to defend all the town hall councils that are still in the hands of the opposition. At the same time, we should not have run nor supported any candidate that dared to run in chavista held cities. This would have complicated considerably the cheating abilities of chavismo as the opposition could have got organized to send its witnesses even where it was not running a real list, thus giving some significant meaning to abstention by comparing the two types of districts. But of course this would have meant strong coordination and forgetting about petty interests. Too much to ask for example to AD who is much more interested in burying Primero Justicia than fight chavismo, as the Saturday show of Sobella Mejia (from AD) seems to indicate (1).
No matter what, Monday morning both sides, the abstention and the voting site will wake up badly bruised. Let's hope that this time they will learn their lesson as there is still time in the next two weeks to put a real strategy for December. Otherwise all is lost. Foreign countries, even if they agree that Chavez is a dictator in the making, will not come to help us if we do not help ourselves. How long did Saddam last? How come Qaddafy is still in office? And not to mention all sorts of African Kinglets such as Mugabe?
What this blogger will do
Well, he will go and vote because his mayor is under siege, and he is fighting back as hard as he can and thus deserve his constituent support contrary to some other wimps. Because his mayor removed the buhoneros (2) of San Felipe and the ones that wants to remove him from office on some suspicious electoral fraud claim (imagine that! with the CNE in their favor chavismo still dares to use the electoral fraud claim when they do not win a seat!) are bad news for San Felipe. Heck! When ballots were recounted (6 months after the October election!!!!) buhoneros were already drawing with chalk on the side walks the spaces they were planning to squatter again.
But this blogger will also vote because Monday 8 he will be able to say, if necessary, that his vote has been stolen. And he is not going to renounce to his right to vote fair and square, no matter what sleazy chavistas might think.
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(1) Sobella Mejias actions on Saturday have been very criticized. We have been told that she knew the march was coming, she knew when it would arrive, she could watch it all on TV anyway. Her tardiness to meet the marchers and receive their written claims is just inexcusable and her words ringed fake. Some leaders of the march are not afraid to state that she was in cohorts with the rest of the CNE. As an ex AD one cannot fail to wonder what is Mejias doing in the CNE still, unless she is working "on something". The reader may speculate as wished, but this blogger repeats what he has stated long ago, Mejias is not to be trusted whatsoever, and that she is probably at best trying to favor AD against anyone else in the opposition and at worse, well, she joined Chavez.
(2) Buhoneros are street vendors in Venezuela that over the years have squatted the major side walks of the major cities, become the bane of Venezuela. Chavismo has promoted them extensively for two reasons: 1) it helps somewhat to disguise the jobless rate and 2) at least in Caracas it allows them to keep up a floating population of populace easily convoked to attack any opposition legal protest (see for example what happened last Saturday, how in a few minutes suddenly chavista "spontaneous supporters" were able to mount small barricades with enough stones to smack down any Chavez opponent.
Yet, some people are making a campaign to promote further abstention, as if this would solve the problems of Venezuela. Although I do not agree with them, they do have, for once, a point. Let's look, in a simple and hopefully objective way, what is it all about.
The electoral condition
There has been enough evidence presented to affirm that the Venezuelan electoral system is pretty close to a sham (here, here and here, for example) That is, for the opposition to win, 50% + 1 is not enough. The machinery, and resources, and finances of the state are now all in gear to support any candidate that runs in Chavez name. The official advantage is simply obscene, no matter what the opposition does, plans, runs on. Something that even grudgingly is acknowledged in the OAS and Carter Center reports for the August 2004 referendum. Well, if things were already bad then, one thing is certain: it has not improved at all. If it is not as obvious for the casual external observer it is simply due to the fact that opposition disarray exempts the government from requiring applying all the advantages it has forged. But make no mistake, as soon as any significant challenge to Chavez rule raises its electoral head, the crushing machinery will be activated.
The abstention option
The argument advanced by abstention promoters is of course that if one participates in something so obviously rigged, one would thus be lending its good name to the regime, even if voting against all of Chavez list of candidates. Thus the option is for all to stay home and demonstrate with empty street, with the absence of lines at polling stations that all of Chavez support is just a show, that he has no majority in the country, never had.
It is easy to punch holes in this theory. To begin with, Chavez does not care about abstention: the 1999 constitution is based on the 1999 April referendum where the opposition advocated for abstention since the referendum called was illegal; and still with less than 50% of electors voting Yes, the election for a new constitutional assembly went ahead in July. One would wonder as to whether the abstention promoters do remember this not so long ago moment. So, whether 60% vote on Sunday or only 30%, the only thing that matters for Chavez is that he gets 60% or more of the cast ballots.
More holes can be punched. For example, how could be abstention alone be successful, in particular in an election which all know, in every country, that it has high rates of no shows? Further, abstention alone is not enough. The people that want to prove their protest must be out on election day, protesting at street corners, demonstrating that there are more people demonstrating than people voting. But this blogger sees no sign of such massive protest preparation, just mostly politicians with little to lose, some to gain if the abstention is truly impressive. And it will not as there is always the possibility that the CNE "arranges things", not to mention that chavismo will ferry people to the polling stations if they want to ever cash on a Mision again. And let me remind them that even in the lowest polls chavismo still runs a 45% and is united.
Then comes the last, and really only argument: personal ethics, the inability to go with such a sham exercise. Nice indeed and I share it. But unfortunately by itself it will not get us rid of the nightmare we are living under. We are facing an enemy with no ethics, no scruples. That does not mean we must become sleaze bags, but ethics do not impress chavistas who only take advantage of it. Foreign observers might be more sympathetic to ethics, but that will still not land the marines in La Güaira.
The voting option
This time this option is hardly more palatable. Assuming that one thinks that voting still can do something positive, the idea of supporting the political parties that behaved so lousily these past few years, that failed to apologize for their errors through the 2004 campaign and for accepting unacceptable rules for the referendum, that refused to renew their discredited leadership, that claim fraud but at the same time asked us to vote in October as if nothing, not even pursuing their initial fraud claim, is truly discouraging.
Yet, can we abandon the few mayors still dedicated to preserve our immediate living spaces from the abuse, incompetence and down right larceny? Can we even abandon our right to vote to a regime that has made mockery of a democracy to remain in power against all odds and all infamy?
What we should have done?
Simply call to vote, even if not quite united, to defend all the town hall councils that are still in the hands of the opposition. At the same time, we should not have run nor supported any candidate that dared to run in chavista held cities. This would have complicated considerably the cheating abilities of chavismo as the opposition could have got organized to send its witnesses even where it was not running a real list, thus giving some significant meaning to abstention by comparing the two types of districts. But of course this would have meant strong coordination and forgetting about petty interests. Too much to ask for example to AD who is much more interested in burying Primero Justicia than fight chavismo, as the Saturday show of Sobella Mejia (from AD) seems to indicate (1).
No matter what, Monday morning both sides, the abstention and the voting site will wake up badly bruised. Let's hope that this time they will learn their lesson as there is still time in the next two weeks to put a real strategy for December. Otherwise all is lost. Foreign countries, even if they agree that Chavez is a dictator in the making, will not come to help us if we do not help ourselves. How long did Saddam last? How come Qaddafy is still in office? And not to mention all sorts of African Kinglets such as Mugabe?
What this blogger will do
Well, he will go and vote because his mayor is under siege, and he is fighting back as hard as he can and thus deserve his constituent support contrary to some other wimps. Because his mayor removed the buhoneros (2) of San Felipe and the ones that wants to remove him from office on some suspicious electoral fraud claim (imagine that! with the CNE in their favor chavismo still dares to use the electoral fraud claim when they do not win a seat!) are bad news for San Felipe. Heck! When ballots were recounted (6 months after the October election!!!!) buhoneros were already drawing with chalk on the side walks the spaces they were planning to squatter again.
But this blogger will also vote because Monday 8 he will be able to say, if necessary, that his vote has been stolen. And he is not going to renounce to his right to vote fair and square, no matter what sleazy chavistas might think.
=== === === === === === === === ===
(1) Sobella Mejias actions on Saturday have been very criticized. We have been told that she knew the march was coming, she knew when it would arrive, she could watch it all on TV anyway. Her tardiness to meet the marchers and receive their written claims is just inexcusable and her words ringed fake. Some leaders of the march are not afraid to state that she was in cohorts with the rest of the CNE. As an ex AD one cannot fail to wonder what is Mejias doing in the CNE still, unless she is working "on something". The reader may speculate as wished, but this blogger repeats what he has stated long ago, Mejias is not to be trusted whatsoever, and that she is probably at best trying to favor AD against anyone else in the opposition and at worse, well, she joined Chavez.
(2) Buhoneros are street vendors in Venezuela that over the years have squatted the major side walks of the major cities, become the bane of Venezuela. Chavismo has promoted them extensively for two reasons: 1) it helps somewhat to disguise the jobless rate and 2) at least in Caracas it allows them to keep up a floating population of populace easily convoked to attack any opposition legal protest (see for example what happened last Saturday, how in a few minutes suddenly chavista "spontaneous supporters" were able to mount small barricades with enough stones to smack down any Chavez opponent.
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