Primero Justicia out of Venezuelan vote

Primero Justicia after an all day meeting has opted out of the Sunday election. The reason? They cannot defend the Venezuelan vote in the face of the CNE treachery. (updated link here)

However there is a twist: they keep up three candidates, the three political victims of chavismo, Simonovis, Forero and Pacheco. That is, for me, rather brilliant as it will demonstrate clearly the value of asbtention if they manage to coordinate a serious monitoring effort around these three names and manage to have them win their elections. Chavismo is basically obliged to either cheat to ensure such victory does not happen, or postpone the election and change the utterly discredited CNE board.

PS: Petkoff has a very interesting analysis out. He still thinks that abstention is a mistake but he has modulated his discourse, just as PJ did. That is, the groundswell of popular outrage and the openly reactionary attitude of the government are changing the deal so fast that no one can really take a reasoned stand.

PS2: There is only one important opposition player left, Rosales in Zulia. I would not be surprised to see him remain in the race anyway as a guarantee to be able to demonstrate that the opposition could have done well. A little bit like for the three political vicitims.

But I think it would be best at this point to see Rosales withdraw. Things have changed in such a way that even Rosales might not be able to counter a surprising and unexpected abstention in Zulia which could give chavismo more seats than expected. He would thus damage further a possible opposition front, and lose big himself instead of beeing the king maker of the opposition presidential bid of 2006. I personally think that we are in a alea jacta est situation. Rosales should call in his chips. We are not any more in a Lone Ranger situation.

The scared CNE

It is quite easy to see when obsequious lackeys are having cold sweats. I was listening to a replay of CNE president Jorge Rodriguez speech earlier today. As the CNE Titanic is sinking after its run with the Fila de Mariches iceberg, Rodriguez plays the band announcing that almost no one had “officially” withdrawn and the CNE "unanimously" decided to extend the dead line for candidacy substitution. That is, the deadline set for when some candidate dies or resigns or is impeached will be extended until sometime this week end. Let’s see how the shrink has lost his head and how much disregard he has for our basic intellect:

1. So, if your CV does not allow you to go successfully through the many hoops to be allowed to run, you just need to wait for someone to resign at the last minute to jump in, without having to do any electoral campaign
2. He also forgets that political parties might have a say as to who replaces whom in their lists.
3. And the best, of course, when Rodriguez announces proudly that only 0.something % have withdrawn, he assumes that the withdrawing parties have nothing better to do but to stampede to remove their candidates name from the list. Well, if 1 and 2 are true, they certainly will wait until the very last minute to submit the “official” resignation form. I leave the reader appreciate on the right side the sublime moment where Rodriguez was showing the 0.1% withdrawing at 2 PM today. Words fail me.
   

How come Rodriguez has not resigned? I mean, how shameless one can be?

Meanwhile it is amusing to watch the CNE squirm in the worst damage control I have been watching in quite a long time.

Just as I was writing a few hours ago on Zulia!

Globovision is showing images of the rally being held, as I type this, on 72 nd street of Maracaibo. This rally was originally scheduled as a campaign closing event in Zulia state. Well, I can assure the reader that it is one of the biggest rallies we have seen in Venezuela in these past few months! It certainly would compare (favorably?) with anything Chavez tried recently.

The rally is named "Marcha por la Zulianidad", march for the Zulia-ness. Considering the enthusiasm shown by the people as seen on TV, it looks like recent events have enhanced its meaning. Regionalization (waiting for bigger words?) is becoming an important rallying factor in Zulia. And Chavez is to blame.

Meanwhile, the vice in yet another show of stupidity or machiavelism (one is never too sure with the vice, except that he is vicious) accuses the State Department to be behind the withdrawal of the opposition candidates. So I could leave the reader with the image of George W. Bush losing sleep over Venezuelan parliamentary insted of, say, Iraq if it were not that State has already adressed such nonsense, actually appreciating the reasons of the opposition. I think that the Carter Center is not going to get any phone call these days...

The brilliance of Weil

Today's cartoon (following on yesterday theme) is simply brilliant.

That "monster head" or rabid (fascist?) dog if you please, is actually one of Venezuela's voting machines. The legend?

Primero Justicia kids: guys, do not withdraw... I am begging you with all my heart.

And then some still wonder why nobody wants to go and vote, even in the chavista camp where rumors are that orders are given in the ministries and barracks that whomever does not go to vote on Sunday will be fired. Heil!

PS: the editorial of Tal Cual today is a single gigantic question mark. If even Teodoro has no clue...

Zulia, abstention and other electoral ramdom thoughts

The electoral situation does not seem to be improving. Not that I was expecting much anyway: we all know that what is needed is a new CNE board and manual voting. Nothing else will do. Watching the news I was wondering about a few things and I wanted to put down a few for common reflexion with the readers.

The Zulia problem

Manuel Rosales, Zulia's governor, has announced that he was going to win the Zulia seats and that he was running no matter what the other guys said.

I do not see that as bucking the abstention trend, not even as posturing. In fact I think it is reflecting something much worse: a new and dangerous regionalism. I suspect that the Zulia voter, the most refractary to Chavez bull shit, is getting tired of the delirium of Chavez, which is financed in large part with Zulia underground oil wealth. No matter how many visits Chavez does to Zulia, how much cheating he does at polls, how many promises (usually broken anyway but not a problem elsewhere in Venezuela) opposition to Chavez in Zulia is increasing steadily.

Fascism usually operates by dividing and even atomizing its opposition. This never solves the problem of course, and actually can bring worse problems. Regionalization is one, unleashing centrifuge forces that can have umpredictable consequences, even breaking up countries. The neo-fascists we have in Miraflores are aware of that but are unable to deal with it. Yet, their policies keep aggravating the Zuliano resentment. That bill will have to be paid.

The reason why Rosales remains in the race is because he is effectively harnessing that regional component that we thought was long lost since Gomez. Yet another example of how backward in time Chavez is taking Venezuela. And I cannot condemn Rosales as he is probably avoiding worse manifestations of the problem.

What's up with Sobella Mejias?

Ms. Mejias is the "token" opposition representative at the CNE. As such she has been woefully inadequate, so much that she is basically rumored to have tossed her lot with chavismo.

So, how come we have not heard from her since last week fiasco? How come she has not resigned? How come she has not even supported her colleagues? What are her links with AD?

Sobella, it's time you take a stand for once in your life. If you are cashing big with chavismo have at least the decency to acknowledge it. Or announce publicly that you are ready, as the vice president of the CNE , to take over as soon as Rodriguez resigns. You will create the best possible political crisis in Venezuela by forcing the rotten CNE to collapse or throw away the hypocresy.

The Hamletian Primero Justicia

If I can understand the reasons why Rosales is staying in the run (for the time being anyway) it is more difficult to see why Primero Justicia is still hanging there as there is enough evidence of a groundswell opinion for withdrawing coming from inside its supporters!

I do appreciate that they think elections should always be contested, but underestimating the rejection from the masses to voting under the CNE rules is dangerous for its future. Even this blogger for the first time in his life is wondering whether we should just not take a stand in front of international observers. Not that they will do much but at least we would get media exposure. I think that at this time unity is crucial and if Primero Justicia is going to break it, it should do so without any ambiguity. Those are not days for pusilanimity. AD seems to be doing very well these past 48 hours, at least on what I hear on talk shows!

Useless abstention again?

My main problem with abstention is that it should be active or it is TOTALLY USELESS.

Indeed, I think that if we were able to uncover such a fraudulent action from the CNE, we have the right to demand a full audit of the whole system. As I wrote above, even people like me who are fanatical democrats and cannot see an election where they would not vote are having second thoughts.

But staying home is not the simple solution! Abstentionists should be doing more than calling people to church (though the PR bonus from that could be considerable!) In fact, the abstention "leadership" should already be calling for a massive march on Monday 5 to declare publicly that they will not recongize the results of Sunday election if they dare to hold it anyway (something that looks less and less likely as the CNE is not even holding its regular meetings!)

At any rate, if I do not see much more than useless screaming I will go to church on Sunday and then hit the ballot box anyway, even if only some very minor anti Chavez candidate is left on the ballot. Actually I might even vote Tupamaro as this might scare chavismo even more!

More tonight as events keep unfolding.

Political firestorm in Venezuela

Today must have been one of the most complex days in recent Venezuelan history. The political firestorm was unleashed last Wednesday when the CNE was caught cheating, and even worse, suspected of cheating on a much grander scale than what it was caught doing. Thus in short order we got a riot of news over the week end, an ultimatum to the CNE, a cave in of this one, and a massive quitting from the winning party. Huh? How come?

I think it is too early to try to explain this. Besides this fearless blogger was traveling today and barely made it home. The extensive driving meditation did not clear his head much anyway. However there is one thing which is always useful: to list the basic facts, as they are known, and hope that with time somehow it will all make sense (note: no links given as many of these facts have already been extensively discussed in this blog, and the way things are going, today’s link might become tomorrow nincompoopery)

The Venezuelan electoral system is fraudulent.

Whether the finger print scanners are used next Sunday has become irrelevant. Now, the whole country is convinced, be it true or not, that the CNE has been monitoring who voted for what since August 2004. Jorge Rodriguez as the head of the CNE can brandish any little poll with favorable numbers, it is irrelevant. In a country which has been subjected to the Tascon fascist list where anyone on it could be barred from public jobs, education or social services, few will be brave enough to reply accurately to a pollster. Thus the consistent incongruence seen in polls since 2004.

As a reminder I will recall some of the other factors that must be addressed before any election in Venezuela can be considered legitimate: publication and subsequent verification of voter rolls; real immediate audit on a significant sample of polling stations; controlling the executive abuse when it helps its candidates; making the CNE composition even handed as today ALL of regional delegates and perhaps more than 90% of its personnel is affiliated with chavismo; and more. It is simply impossible to run a fair election in Venezuela if those issues are not addressed. In short, it probably will require manual balloting with a new CNE board to “start” restoring some confidence in elections.

Anyone that dares to comment on the Venezuelan situation ignoring these simple facts is either a fool, or trying to manipulate the audience. I mean it.

The abstention camp is the winning one.

All polls have something in common though: they reflect an increasingly large abstention in Venezuelan elections. In addition to the lack of trust in the CNE, there is also the “tired” factor of a country used to vote only once every 5 years and now forced to vote once to twice a year. But even more, there is a sense everywhere that Chavez has made the country his and that voting simply is a useless waste of time as nothing will change. This is what is provoking the most the chavista abstention, and what hurts chavismo, or even scares it. A populist government needs to prove itself all the time and victories with increased margins are simply meaningless if the polling stations are, well, empty. Perhaps one reason that some in the opposition are so willing to use the abstention card, disingenuously, is simply because chavismo is unable to come to grips with the fact that it is neutering its own followers.

The opposition lack of unity is perhaps its main downfall.

I am not discussing “programmatic unity” here, as the opposition goes from Bandera Roja to right wing military groups. No, any unity besides protecting democracy from Chavez is impossible and unrealistic. Still, the constant attacks on democracy by chavismo should be enough for the opposition to come up with some electoral strategy that all can stick to. After all, it did happen in 2003 when against all odds and all treachery, the recall election was called. But the opposition is unable to hold long to any unity. And this time is no exception. Managing to put together an electoral alliance, it did so late and meekly. Still, it managed to corner the CNE into surrendering the finger printing set up.

But that did not last much. Apparently the decision of political parties to go or not to go on next Sunday vote seems to have been taken independently. That is, none of them seems to have been much worried about the effect on their decision on the hard sought opposition unity. Why? It is too early to say. Some probably sensing that the polls would be particularly bad for them found it to be a perfect excuse. But I doubt it is the case as the electoral alliance allows many parties to mask their weakness. Quitting can only show they lack of support if other remain in the run. As Petkoff lamented today, that general disbanding can come to be a major disaster for the opposition.

The divorce between the opposition and its electorate seems getting worse.

The abstention camp within the opposition has always been a thorn in the side of the political parties. This comes from the dismal attitude of the political parties on August 16, 2004. Since then, not a single party has been able to reestablish a minimum of trust between its leaders and their electors. The October 2004 regional elections where the opposition could have hoped to maintain at least half of its positions was a serious omen as the abstention sunk most opposition candidates, allowing chavismo with already a diminished voting force to carry almost all anyway. That chavismo failed to see its own omen does not excuse the opposition who went on to leave most town halls into the hands of chavismo in august 2005, with even higher abstention.

Now, the striking news in these past two days is a groundswell support for abstention. Even this blogger met a few people who were going to vote a few days ago and now will not, even if political parties decide to go. It is not the time to discuss yet if this is a final suicide for the opposition or the start of a major coup against chavismo, but the fact is that this increased abstention movement, and a vocal one at that, is there to trump everything. Political parties that dare to buckle that tide might find themselves quite bruised on Monday 5…

But one should not be surprised. Unable to come to grips with their dismal role in August 2004, opposition parties have been unable to offer convincing apologies to their voters, even less to renew a discredited leadership and thus became totally unable to motivate the voters back to the good fight. They are just harvesting the consequences of their errors.

Final words for tonight.

It is a mess. It could end up as a severe defeat for Chavez. It could end up as the final gasp for the opposition. One thing is certain, and clear to the world: the Venezuelan electoral system sucks big time. But regular readers of this blog have known that for a long time.

Chavismo in disarray? Hysterics, weapons deals and Congressmen on the tarmac

The day has been rife with rumors, declarations and what not. Basically what we are all waiting for is to know whether the opposition will withdraw its candidates for the Sunday contest. Whether the rumored acceptation to remove the finger printing devices will be enough, rumored as it has not been confirmed by the CNE as I am typing this.

Perhaps, in my opinion, the most remarkable development of the day is an INCREASE in the intention of the NOT VOTING option. Venezuelan people are not that silly, if the CNE cover was blown away so completely last Wednesday, well, what else is there? What additional skeletons remain in the CNE dirty closets? Alo Ciudadano, the popular and highest audience talk show on TV had its lines busy with people saying that they would not go and vote no matter what the opposition leadership decided. The “informal” daily poll was on such intentions and the final result was a stunning 95% on not going to vote next Sunday!!! No matter how unscientific that is, there is a message there.

Alo Ciudadano had also Ezequiel Zamora on the air. The ex director of the CNE was quite clear not only about all the problems of the voting system, much worse than what it used to be, but also reminded the opposition leadership that they were paying the price of neglect in the post August trauma when they should have fought for better elections, where they should have picked up on the leads left behind by Sumate, the OAS, and even himself when he resigned. Chickens always come home to roost and the opposition leadership is harvesting years of neglect. Or is it?

It seems that in fact the opposition has been doing a lot of homework to be able to expose all the CNE treachery (is there a better word for a state organization which deliberately set up a system to kill the secret of voting, this moist sacred principle of what a democracy should be?) Perhaps what we are seeing is a fine strategy that came to fruition none too soon. We shall see, but one thing is certain: there is no point for the opposition to do a serious electoral campaign, to offer a serious program to rebuild the country if there is no point in going to the ballot as the result is, now for all to see, pre ordained. Some groups are quyite clear on the next steps already. Copei vice president, former High Court judge, Roman Duque Corredor was on TV to announce that Copei would nto run if the overhaul of the system is not contemplated soon. It is vox populi now that Primero Justicia is the brain behind the operation to uncover the CNE in front of the international observers (certainly in collaboration with Sumate). AD is gathering tomorrow at noon to take a decision. Other organizations have indicated their intention to withdraw their candidates and even if MAS, PV and other are still silent, when you read that Zulia’s Rosales movement is about to quit when ti si assured of the only opposition victory, you know where the tide is flowing.

If you want to see how discomfit chavismo is, you only need to look at some of its infamous hacks trying to do some damage control. Ever so clumsily, ever so infamously.

Ismael Garcia on TV this morning at 6:30 PM was in such a hysterical state that the interviewer was unable to even ask questions. He went to Globovision, a rare visit for a chavista, only to spit out as fast and as hard as possible the chavismo line, without giving the journalists a chance to probe, what all chavistas who go to Globovision always do anyway. If there was nothing new there, the despair to thread the line was rather fascinating to watch.

Another one hitting the air waves hard was Maduro, the hack in charge of the national assembly and who was rumored to be traveling for leisure instead of campaigning. Well, he had nothing else better to state that this all was only a US financed ploy against Venezuelan democracy. It is hard to be more unoriginal this day. Could it be that they really were caught by surprise by last week audit failure? Whatever it is, one wonders if this had anything to do with a US Congress delegation which was not allowed to leave the plane in Caracas airport. They had to fly back to the state. What a curious development, no?

Not to mention that the outburst of Lara yesterday was commented around, in rather ridicule in his attempt to pass as an outraged catholic wanting to force the Roman Catholic church to take a stand against Sumate. His declaration today that "the CNE was too lenient with the opposition" woudl made anyone laugh if they were not so pathetic.

Meanwhile Chavez was signing a weapon deal with Spain that is not flattering on Zapatero foreign policy even if it brings him, or so he thinks as he hopes Venezuela will be a good payer, a few jobs to Spain. But this another story of Chavez buying foreign sympathies with the oil money of Venezuelan people while his CNE henchmen are being exposed. I sure hope that during his visit the defense minister of Spain will read about the CNE “problems” to get an idea about what crooks he is really dealing with, before he either gets associated with these crooks in Public opinion, or, worse, he and his Zapatero boss pass for the fools that they seem more and more to be…

Thus we remain wondering if this is the begining of the "real thing" or yet another trap set for the opposition. For once I am not so sure. It is too convoluted and too risky. Observers are watching everything and counting on them closing their eyes on such irregularities just as to get contracts for their countries can only go so far in the rarefied world of conspiracy theories. However we have grown so used to the opposition self destructive actions that there is no room for optimism.

Amanecerá y veremos.

Unbelievable developments! (later this evening)

In a most infamous "cadena" Jorge Rodriguez had to swallow hard to announce that his very own baby, the finger printing machines, rumored to have brought him great riches, were suspended from use for next Sunday vote. In a normal country such an annoucement of a personal failure from the guy that forced such an incredible expensive, and useless, state expenditure and policy, should be followed by his resignation. But in the Bolibanana Republic, Rodriguez, a moral crook, will retain his job instead of being submitted to investigation. His explanaitions were pathetic. Instead of just going ahead and announce the suspension on some lame excuse such as public concern or international suggestion, he added a ridicule, if not pityful, justification including mystery polls that allegedly ranked the CNE high in confidence in Venezuela. Only a failed shrink would believe a poll contracted by himself!!!

On the other hand I found very disturbing the OAS communique asking people to go and vote next Sunday. Interference? Appeasement? Outright help for Chavez? Someone should remind them that appeasement NEVER works. This communique IS NOT GOING to help.