A post card

I am enjoying a little a short free week end in some corner of Europe. Maybe I should drop a hint to see if someone can guess.

This Sunday morning, the heathen blogger who subscribes these lines decided to go to church. Then again it was a richly decorated baroque church, including huge columns in surprising green or pink granite. There was also going to be music: a Haydn Mass played to accompany an actual mass. I love Haydn. Even if the mass is sung in Latin and the priest in German, I did manage to get into the gist of things, remembering enough of my “Notre Père” and even handing in my pocket change during collection. When all was done, as people left the church, some of the natives in traditional garb, a fabulous organ concert started that lasted for another 20 minutes. Enough to stir the soul as I took a few pictures of this wonderful church. Even the confessionals were so fabulous that one would want to sin just to enjoy kneeling on them for a reason.

When I left such an exquisitely civilized moment, I was thinking that it was not that I was away from Venezuela, for all that I knew, things are so strikingly different around here that I am probably in another planet.

Heck, to leave you I will post a picture where all political allusion should be banished. These Rosales are in a famous park, which contains the letter ö in its name. We must keep tending to our roses if we want them to bloom as these.

Ramblings from afar

I am blissfully unaware of what is going in Venezuela. Besides the Y/Z confusion of my keyboards (never mind the ö,ä ß,ü) coupled to the lack of wireless in the area are certainly not an ecouragement to check out the news.

In fact I learned of the attack on Rosales march through one Colombian colleague who showed me an article from El Tiempo.

Do I need to check out the news for that? Naaaah... The only surprise here is that they are ALREADY attacking Rosales. Hard core chavismo is a fundamentalist cult and their latest fascisitic moves could only end up in chasing away Rosales from areas which "belong" to chavismo. Self ghettoization, the ultimate state of chavismo...

news from Europe

This blogger is spending a few days in some corner of the German speaking world, on work by the way, vacation after, elsewhere. His first time in Euorpe since 2002. Well, Europe kept progressing but more startingly, I am realizing how provincial we Venezuelans are becoming (or already became?). Some quick notes.

Frankfurt airport was a nice place to spend while waiting for a connection that took a few hours. The impressive shopping area looks fancier than any mall in Venezuela, at least as far as the variety if goods offered. "un emporio!"

The cosmopolitanism of the crowds in the airport makes Chavez looks even more provincial. His little gatherings of the "youth of the world" and other assorted self flattering self serving offices are nothing compared to what I observed in the hall ways. From incredible tattoes, to fabulous sari clad women, Sikhs turbans everywhere and African chiefs in full garb. I did not see a kimono but I am sure that if my plane had been further delayed one would have crossed my path. None of these people wastes time visiting Venezuela.

The conference I am attending is describing the agribusiness progress in the rest of the world. Every body seems on the road to prosperity and increasing GDP. All speakers ignore LatAm or make pessimnistic comments about it (except for Brazil, Chile ignored as not a commodities producer). We are just not going to be players, no matter what Chavez says. Though at least one speaker pointed out the potential for trouble of Venezuela. I was not proud.

But the most striking moment for me was at the airport. In the bus that was waiting for the participants arriving for the conference, climbed someone coming from India, all worn out from his trip, having visibly sojourned in muggy tropical airports. Well, he just flipped his cell phone and started making calls after calls. I did think about subscribing to a cell phone for this trip, but the cost in Venezuela, or the currencz limitations make this an option for only very high palced executives. At this conference almost any non German folk flips a cel phone here and there. And by the way, my fellow Indian recovered quite well from his trip and was much better dressed than me the next day...

Sorry for typos, but no spell checker and German key board...

More irregualr posting as I can.

Is fascism the new left?

This is not an idle question. We are observing more and more that supposedly progressive leftist parties in Latin America are acting as your average fascist movement, imposing their ideas regardless on how large the share of the popular vote they control. Three cases in point: Venezuela, Bolivia and Mexico.

Venezuela

The latest actions of Caracas Mayor at large, Juan Barreto, were particularly eloquent. This one in fact went as far as espousing Stalinism in Caracas to control the opposition mayor, even announcing that one of them will be jailed by December.

But we could also look at some supporters who are embracing an increasingly violent language. Last night one of the callers of Alo Ciudadano, the popular TV talk show on Globovision, was a woman saying that all in Cuba was fine and dandy and that people had no right to criticize the Cuban regime, that they were just liars. The host let her talk as long as she wanted and soon enough the unfortunate woman was saying that people against the revolution should be executed through fusillade. Interestingly the self declared profession of that woman was social worker, trained in Cuba. Some training she got.

But readers of this blog know very well that these are just a reflection of “l’air du temps”. In Venezuela the 1999 constitution has been violated so often that now all power rests in the hand of a single man, not of a single party, a single man, which is one of the hallmarks of fascism. At least communist regimes had the pretense to have all power in the hand of one single party. In fact, this blogger dates exactly the entry of Venezuela into a fascistic leaning system since February 27 2004. It has been downhill ever since, all on the name of the “socialism of the XXI century”.

Bolivia

We find the same type of situation. The new constitutional assembly was supposed to vote by a 2/3 majority, which makes sense when you draft a constitution that must serve all Bolivians. Unfortunately Evo Morales failed to gain a 2/3 majority. No problem, after a scuffle where one of the assembly leaders was seriously hurt, the Morales majority decided to do away with the 2/3 requirement. The “opposition” walked out, and certainly aware of the Venezuelan precedent, called upon the OAS to intercede. And justifiably so.

Mexico

There the situation is much graver. Now, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has decided not to recognize the election result. Even more, he has threatened with naming a parallel government and has decided to call for a constitutional assembly in Mexico. The catch here is that even without a putative electoral fraud, AMLO did not get 50% + 1 vote. That is right, he did not even get 40% of the votes. His fraud claim are so tenuous, though perhaps with some merit, that they cannot account for that 10% missing that would morally allow him to set the political mess he is setting. In fact, the PAN largely outscored the PRD of AMLO in congress! That is right, far from an absolute majority of the Mexican voters, AMLO still forges ahead and tries to impose his ambition on all Mexicans. The whole protest every day smacks more and more of a neo-fascism. AMLO will probably sink in infamy, but not without having inflicted grievous damage to Mexican institutions (which need to be reformed, of course, but that is another story, and not one to proceed as AMLO wants to).

Conclusion?

It would be too facile to equate these actions with fascism. Maybe some of these people do not realize it, maybe they confuse Stalinism and Fascism as Barreto did. But the fact of the matter is that at the very least we can say that Chavez, Morales and AMLO are showing themselves not to be democrats. In a democracy the majority rules as it pleases as long as the minority rights are preserved and the conditions for that minority to become someday a majority are enabled. Anything short of this basic principle starts at authoritarian and ends at Stalinism or Fascism, which are, in the end, pretty similar in results. Amazingly the Left that should be the most democratic expression in LatAm seems in its ambition of power and accessory hate of the US to be only too willing to forgo democracy, and violently of needed. Let’s just hope that other democratic and progressive governments in LatAm will not follow these examples of intolerance and naked ambition.

What is behind that reelection ad infinitum for Chavez?

Acute observers of the Venezuelan situation, a group where this blogger occupies the humblest ranks, have known long ago, or at least since the 1999 constitution was drafted, that Chavez had all intentions to remain in office as long as he could get away with it. For too long his speeches were peppered with allusions to leaving dates such as 2021 or 2030. Chavez supporters were quick in saying that Chavez meant his movement to stay in power until then, or some other lame excuse. But the fact of the matter is that as a president who has gone out of his way to ensure absolute control on as much as the state apparatus as he could reach, Chavez did not do all of that to surrender it to the winner of an election that would not be himself.

Just plain logic. Chavez is not a democrat and uses democracy only as long as it works for him, as a transition period of sorts.

So, I was wondering about the strange need that pushed him to announce Friday that he would call himself for a Recall Election in 2010, when his second term reaches the half way mark. Why would he do such a thing? To refurbish his image as a democrat as he arrives from Syria? To soften his now established authoritarian image? No, that would be too easy.

The part of him calling for a recall election is easy to get: after the Tascon list no one will ever dare to call for a Recall Election in Venezuela. This constitutional novelty has been pretty much killed in 2004. As far as I can see it will be used only by chavistas to kick out of office opposition figures or chavistas that need to get disposed of (such as Barreto?).

Thus we are left to try to figure out why Chavez made this single announcement. In fact, we must ponder this as it is, so far, the core offering of his reelection campaign. That is right, the rest of the speech were platitudes and pseudo-philosophical musings. The only concrete thing was that recall election promise.

I was thus wondering through the day why did Chavez offered such a wild idea. That he would call at the same time for a referendum to lift the two terms limit is not the issue: he could call that referendum tomorrow if he wanted to. That he would link such a referendum and a recall election is a gimmick of little significance. Thus, why?

I am pretty sure that there are many possible explanations, including Chavez being on drugs after yet another long and exhausting trip. But I came out with one that has a certain logic. The first thing is to review some recent changes in the political situation, and remember some facts.

Chavez does not have a good record to run on. The bloom of social programs has worn off. Some people did get benefits, many perhaps, but the tale now is that if you want to have access to them you better wear a red shirt. A new elite has appeared and people do not like it much. Social programs arguable success notwithstanding, inflation and lack of real jobs have remained a social curse, even increasing, with no reply coming from the government. The implication of a rising crime situation has become true: Venezuela has now top crime rates in the world, with a week end dead roll that competes with the one in Iraq, for example. And the major construction programs announced seem to be rather incomplete, and definitively too late to affect voter sentiment, long used to last minute inaugurations.

Thus running on record along is not enough for Chavez as his government approval rating is in the doldrums whereas his remain unaccountably good!

To this we can add the major political shift of August: the opposition unified against all odds. And not only that, but the unification was convincing, and Rosales had a good campaign start. Chavismo who was counting on a weak and divided opposition is obviously not ready for the sudden challenge ahead. Not that it is in great danger: chavismo holds too many cards still. But the fact of the matter is that chavismo has to suddenly devise a battle plan, a program, an organization, a voter outreach. We are all surprised at how little chavismo is ready when we were expecting a steam roller! This one might exist but it obviously having some ignition problems.

And that is how I got one possible explanation for Chavez “promise”. The translation of his promise is: “listen guys, I think that I did not do as much as you hoped me to do. I can understand that you are pissed at me. But that is OK, fear not, just give me three more years and you will see how great everything turns out to be. If you still do not like it, no problem, THEN we will have the real election to replace me. But this time forget about the other guy, just give me three years. Trust me, I am such a good democrat”.

Besides this proposal being yet another chavista con job, it is a surprising show of weakness from a candidate who 2 months ago seemed totally invincible. In politics fortunes can change dramatically. I still think it is an uphill battle for Rosales, but now he is facing a hill and not mountain range.

Chavez starts his campaign: price inflation and vote deflation

After driving 7 hours for what normally takes me 3.5 hours between San Felipe and Caracas, I arrived home to be received by Alo Ciudadano passing the complete campaign speech of Chavez (1). That is right, Chavez has decided to stop over in Venezuela for a few days to start his campaign in all earnest. After all, the Barreto episodes (2), the escape from Ramo Verde, the inflation above 10% (3), a recent poll showing a 7% drop in voting intention has sent a message to Chavez: his reelection is not a given, at least if the CNE allows to count votes as they should be counted (4). (note: most links to English texts today!)

But the real surprise was actually the low tenor of the Chavez speech and the poor setting of the rally. For a first campaign rally it was a rather disappointing assistance. Yet the government had taken all precautions: El Silencio square, Plaza O’Leary, was chosen, much smaller than the Avenida Bolivar, with water fountains, trees, corners, etc,… which would allow for a better way to hide a poor attendance. In addition for the past two days we have been told over and over that public workers have been told to dress in red today and lien up the way from the Airport to O’Leary square to welcome the triumphant leader from his recent successful trip overseas. Indeed, his fabulous reception by such connoted democrats such as the Syrian and Angolan presidents must be seen as a triumph. Whatever the rally was, the cameras of Globovision was merciless: placed at a constant angle filming an area no more than a 100 yards from the main stage it showed a not very dense crowd, circulating among a few food stands and not paying much attention to the beloved leader. I remember the days were the O’Leary square was not an option for a chavista rally since it was considered too small. But yes, the crowds were dutifully dressed in red. This blogger has been observing lately that the redder the crowd the lesser the attendance.

The Chavez speech was not exciting at all although controversial. If we are to base ourselves on this speech it seems that Chavez has decided not to run on his record but instead run on a promising bright socialist (or is that neo-Stalinist?) future. Except for the solid group in front of the stage and lovingly filmed by the state media (A red tide welcomes Chavez!) the rest of the crowd seemed to neither care nor be impressed. They were just there. In the speech no concrete promises were offered, only general talk of socialism estheticism to rule the country, and the world. In fact the only unique concrete proposal was for Chavez himself to convoke a recall election in 2010, but with a twist: there will be two questions on the ballot, the second one implying a change in the constitution as ratification of this second question will allow Chavez to be reelected as long as the people “want” it. In fact, Chavez speech was a simple ideological plan until 2020. We suppose that the structural plan will have to wait.

At lest now we are fixed and no one will be allowed to plead misunderstanding: the objective of Chavez is to stay in power until he gets tired of it. There is no ambiguity at all. He spoke clear and loud on this. And along the way he will break the capitalist system to replace it by a co-dependent system. I suppose that for some it might be an improvement.

Thus I was thinking again on how come the San Felipe Caracas trip had become such an ordeal in the last 3 years and how the government is absolutely unable to even try to set up a plan to alleviate the horrendous situation of the main Venezuelan artery, the one that links Valencia to Caracas, the one on which the productivity of the whole country depends. But when I heard Chavez speech today I got it: he does not care, he does not get it. He is unable to do anything concrete: all is politics, all is about securing power, all is about out talking whomever is in front of him. He cannot understand that the number of executives bitching while stuck in the noon heat traffic are the probable main cause on why unemployment fails to abate in Venezuela. How can you think about expanding your business, hiring people when your brain fries for an hour at La Cabrera traffic jam? But worse, how can the masses of workers piled up in buses without air conditioning can be productive after spending an hour at La Cabrera? I have to accept the fact that Chavez has lost all contact with reality, with what matters the most in a country. He is so disconnected that he thinks his stupid speech today is going to carry him easy to December. But the polls are starting to come and Chavez mediocrity today is a sure sign that at least some low level panic is setting in, as illustrated by him trying such silly gimmicks as proposing his own Recall Election as an electoral cornerstone.

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1) El Ciudadano was careful to explain that since it was a Chavez as candidate speech Globovision had decided to pass most of it live, and thus was deliberately scoring points so as not to be accused of partiality when they start passing all of Rosales campaign speeches (which by the way we know will never happen on VTV). Thus it seems that the media are going to play tough and it might pay off handsomely if we are to judge from this first ridiculous Chavez speech.

By the way, Alo Ciudadano dutifully noted that the rally broke election rules as Chavez did State announcements such as naming Rodriguez Araque ambassador to Cuba, the most important diplomatic position of the regime since all the shady financial oil deals go through Havana (and where a large chunk of the loot is probably hidden).

2) A rather polite translation of one of Barreto's infamous speeches can be read here, but I can assure you that without the image, and adding the translator prudery, it does not have the same effect.

3) The inflation rate was above 2% for the second month in a row, in spite of price controls and the number fudgery already explained elsewhere in this blog. Thus the government aim at a single digit inflation is shot, and there are still 4 months to go.

4) Just as his election to UN security council seems far from assured, no matter how much money he lavishes overseas in his now incessant trips.

How stupid is CNN?

Or is it its evening anchor the really stupid one?

Daniel Viotto had again the dubious privilege to be totally manipulated by Castro (and Chavez) who are playing CNN as a fiddle, at least the Spanish language broadcast of the group, CNN en Español.

See, Chavez stopped in Havana on his way back from his latest vacation trip. He met Castro who seems to be indeed recovering. They had a nice chat. A video was made. The video was released when already Chavez was back in Caracas. The video was released to hit full impact the evening news. While the sound track showed us a Castro piling lauds high and deep on his pupil Chavez, Viotto, totally oblivious of the political game at hand was counting the liver spots on Castro's face (or some equivalent medical banality that I do not care to remember).

That is right, CNN is offering free of charge, once again, the full blessing of Castro on Chavez, while its anchor is looking at trivially irrelevant details on Castro's health. I mean, yes, the health of Castro is news, but what Castro is doing with Chavez is bigger, much bigger news and Viotto, or the CNN editor, or both, are totally unaware of it, are clueless. Or are Castro's supporters.

Someone should get fired at CNN really soon....

PS: live blogging by the way, the news on the video was not even on the CNN site when I started writing this post, I could only find this, but Globovision was showing it all.