Venezuela News and Views has been nominated to one of these blog award things: The Bloggies. I am not sure how important it is but whoever handles it is doing its 8th edition. It is a little bit awkward to vote since it requires you leave an e-mail to validate your vote. However it also makes it a more realistic vote as no one is going to make up dozens of e-mails. Or are you? Also, the confirmation e-mail does not arrive very fast so you need to keep it in mind.
However I would say that the choice is rather eclectic which is a good thing. You can go THERE and look at the Latin America section to vote for this blog. I confess that I did not know the other blogs in the category but it is safe to say they probably did not know about our group either: I am the only political blog of the lot which makes me even more surprised to be nominated.
You need to vote by Thursday 31. And I suppose that if you have more than one e-mail address, well, you can demonstrate them how the Venezuelan CNE works ;)
-The end-
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Uribe splendid European trip
Alvaro Uribe, president of Colombia continues his very successful trip through France, Spain and Switzerland. Apparently Europe is getting through and through the little cartoon from Weil, published today in Tal Cual. Chavez definitely looks more and more like the thug from the ruined down house down the block than any statesman.
Rather than expand on the different details in Spain and France, let's summarize the Uribe trip with the declarations of Javier Solana, speaking in the name of the European Union itself. From the Clarin in Argentina, to take a non European paper, we can translate the words of Solana as:
Meanwhile the strategy of Uribe not to reply to the insults of Chavez is paying off handsomely. Uribe is received warmly everywhere he goes. In fact, never has Uribe been received better anywhere since he has become president of Colombia. Big mouthed Chavez insults, very ill timed with the Uribe trip, ensure that. Even a surprisingly sympathetic article of the BBC (for Chavez and the FARC, not Uribe) cannot manage to hide the success that Uribe is meeting in Europe. Maybe the BBC has no hostage of its own in Colombia? Maybe they missed the treatment inflicted on FARC hostages?
But Chavez is getting hits form other quarters too. Once thought a staunch Chavez supporter, Ecuador's Correa has announced that he will have nothing to do with the Colombia Venezuela conflict. Apparently it seems that Correa knows how to read maps and realizes that tiny Ecuador Northern neighbor will be big Colombia until the end of time.
And to add insult to injury, Alan Garcia is received in grand style by Spain where he surely loved to point out that Peru's International reserves, without high oil prices, have nothing to envy the Venezuelan dilapidated ones. The transformation of Garcia from enfant terrible in the 80ies, to respectable and succesful statesman is stupendous. We need not worry this happening to Chavez.
-The end-
Rather than expand on the different details in Spain and France, let's summarize the Uribe trip with the declarations of Javier Solana, speaking in the name of the European Union itself. From the Clarin in Argentina, to take a non European paper, we can translate the words of Solana as:
What the terrorists have to do is to release the hostages, without conditions, immediately.Will Chavez receive the message? I ain't holding my breath. Whatever Chavez does, Europe will keep considering the FARC as a terrorist group. The implication is clear: Do not want to be called terrorists? Release 'em hostages now.
They cannot justify what they do and that idea must take hold in the hearts of well intentioned people.
Meanwhile the strategy of Uribe not to reply to the insults of Chavez is paying off handsomely. Uribe is received warmly everywhere he goes. In fact, never has Uribe been received better anywhere since he has become president of Colombia. Big mouthed Chavez insults, very ill timed with the Uribe trip, ensure that. Even a surprisingly sympathetic article of the BBC (for Chavez and the FARC, not Uribe) cannot manage to hide the success that Uribe is meeting in Europe. Maybe the BBC has no hostage of its own in Colombia? Maybe they missed the treatment inflicted on FARC hostages?
But Chavez is getting hits form other quarters too. Once thought a staunch Chavez supporter, Ecuador's Correa has announced that he will have nothing to do with the Colombia Venezuela conflict. Apparently it seems that Correa knows how to read maps and realizes that tiny Ecuador Northern neighbor will be big Colombia until the end of time.
And to add insult to injury, Alan Garcia is received in grand style by Spain where he surely loved to point out that Peru's International reserves, without high oil prices, have nothing to envy the Venezuelan dilapidated ones. The transformation of Garcia from enfant terrible in the 80ies, to respectable and succesful statesman is stupendous. We need not worry this happening to Chavez.
-The end-
Monday, January 21, 2008
Milk, drugs and Uribe
Alo Presidente brought us two things yesterday: personal insults against Uribe and a 36% increase in milk price. Plus a bonus of new threats about farm seizures and bank nationalizations. Surely international economic trust is going to soar and investments will start pouring in, food scarcity will be solved and we will all live in peace and contentment.
Chavez keeps showing mental and emotional distress: how else can one explain yesterday's new outbursts in his weekly peroration? His endorsement of the FARC, a disaster that might be second only to the closing of RCTV, seems to perturb Chavez more than expected. So he attacks the guy that he thinks made him commit such stupidity even though that guy, Uribe, had warned him repeatedly that the FARC were never to be trusted with anything. This time, upset because Colombia government refuses to go in the gutter where Chavez loves to roll himself, Chavez, determined to get a reaction, any reaction, uttered such insults that we wonder if Colombia and Venezuela relations will ever be able to mend as long as Chavez or Uribe are in office. The insults were big enough that BBC Mundo reported them in full. They included choice words such as "mafiosi" and "coward".
The outburst of Chavez, missing a great opportunity to remain silent, come from renewed accusations that Venezuela has become a platform for drug trafficking. In spite of all the ships coming from Venezuela caught with kilos or tons of cocaine, besides the US complaining that its radars detect more and more unregistered flights leaving Venezuela, Chavez decides to deny it all. Thus instead of the sensible shutting up and investigating, Chavez decides to accuse the US and Colombia of smearing him. Well, considering just the amount seized in ships coming from Venezuela, and by various countries, we must wonder whether Chavez is that ill informed, or as the US indirectly implies, Chavez is an accomplice. After all, when you befriend the FARC you also befriend their drug dealing activities and looking at the haggard Chavez of these past few months, he might even be working at the testing labs.
Unfortunately for Chavez, his elephant in a china shop sense of timing, brings these declarations while Uribe is in a "good will" tour of European capitals, where he hopes to have France, Switzerland and others mediate between the FARC and his administration. Reading today Chavez words in these countries papers will be enough to strengthen Uribe's case in front of, say, Sarkozy, that Chavez has gone from being a possible mediator to become part of the problem.
Back at the ranch, in front of so many setbacks that are increasingly difficult to manage, and impossible to cover, Chavez starts yet a new internal offensive. Apparently he sensed, finally, that the empty milk shelves have played a role in his referendum defeat (the hallaca effect). So he decided to do what he should have done long ago, acknowledge that his inflation is affecting the production costs of milk producers and gave then a 36% rise. Right off the bat this will be insufficient because after a year of official inflation at 22.5% the best that these producer can expect is to break even. But to aggravate matters Chavez is on the verge to forbid outright the sale of milk processors (cheese makers or condensed milk makers) as these people might be willing to pay more for milk than the official price (cheese went up by 50% since November). In a stupendous populist moment he said that all the milk should go to "el pueblo" and that he could not care less if there was no more condensed milk in Venezuela. That we might end up with neither milk nor condensed milk of course is not crossing his feverish mind.
And to tie it all up nicely he said that any producer that smuggles milk to Colombia should have his land seized (BBC English here). I suppose that his military must have told him that a war against Colombia was a sure deal, for Colombia. So he does the next best, beat Colombia on a proxy war on Venezuelan farmers. I wonder who is the real coward here....
But Chavez is also a great visionary. Perhaps sensing that his milk policies will not work anyway if anything because he has incompetent folks to run the new operations, he decided to repeat once again that any opposition victory in the coming regional elections will bring Venezuela to civil war. If negative campaign is already at such paroxysm 10 month before the first ballot is cast for Caracas mayor we can shiver at what this campaign will be.
-The end-
Chavez keeps showing mental and emotional distress: how else can one explain yesterday's new outbursts in his weekly peroration? His endorsement of the FARC, a disaster that might be second only to the closing of RCTV, seems to perturb Chavez more than expected. So he attacks the guy that he thinks made him commit such stupidity even though that guy, Uribe, had warned him repeatedly that the FARC were never to be trusted with anything. This time, upset because Colombia government refuses to go in the gutter where Chavez loves to roll himself, Chavez, determined to get a reaction, any reaction, uttered such insults that we wonder if Colombia and Venezuela relations will ever be able to mend as long as Chavez or Uribe are in office. The insults were big enough that BBC Mundo reported them in full. They included choice words such as "mafiosi" and "coward".
The outburst of Chavez, missing a great opportunity to remain silent, come from renewed accusations that Venezuela has become a platform for drug trafficking. In spite of all the ships coming from Venezuela caught with kilos or tons of cocaine, besides the US complaining that its radars detect more and more unregistered flights leaving Venezuela, Chavez decides to deny it all. Thus instead of the sensible shutting up and investigating, Chavez decides to accuse the US and Colombia of smearing him. Well, considering just the amount seized in ships coming from Venezuela, and by various countries, we must wonder whether Chavez is that ill informed, or as the US indirectly implies, Chavez is an accomplice. After all, when you befriend the FARC you also befriend their drug dealing activities and looking at the haggard Chavez of these past few months, he might even be working at the testing labs.
Unfortunately for Chavez, his elephant in a china shop sense of timing, brings these declarations while Uribe is in a "good will" tour of European capitals, where he hopes to have France, Switzerland and others mediate between the FARC and his administration. Reading today Chavez words in these countries papers will be enough to strengthen Uribe's case in front of, say, Sarkozy, that Chavez has gone from being a possible mediator to become part of the problem.
Back at the ranch, in front of so many setbacks that are increasingly difficult to manage, and impossible to cover, Chavez starts yet a new internal offensive. Apparently he sensed, finally, that the empty milk shelves have played a role in his referendum defeat (the hallaca effect). So he decided to do what he should have done long ago, acknowledge that his inflation is affecting the production costs of milk producers and gave then a 36% rise. Right off the bat this will be insufficient because after a year of official inflation at 22.5% the best that these producer can expect is to break even. But to aggravate matters Chavez is on the verge to forbid outright the sale of milk processors (cheese makers or condensed milk makers) as these people might be willing to pay more for milk than the official price (cheese went up by 50% since November). In a stupendous populist moment he said that all the milk should go to "el pueblo" and that he could not care less if there was no more condensed milk in Venezuela. That we might end up with neither milk nor condensed milk of course is not crossing his feverish mind.
And to tie it all up nicely he said that any producer that smuggles milk to Colombia should have his land seized (BBC English here). I suppose that his military must have told him that a war against Colombia was a sure deal, for Colombia. So he does the next best, beat Colombia on a proxy war on Venezuelan farmers. I wonder who is the real coward here....
But Chavez is also a great visionary. Perhaps sensing that his milk policies will not work anyway if anything because he has incompetent folks to run the new operations, he decided to repeat once again that any opposition victory in the coming regional elections will bring Venezuela to civil war. If negative campaign is already at such paroxysm 10 month before the first ballot is cast for Caracas mayor we can shiver at what this campaign will be.
-The end-
Friday, January 18, 2008
How chavistas manage reality avoidance
After a week of daily quoting of Weil, Rayma deserves her due. Today she explains to us how chavistas manage to keep the faith. The cartoon above presents two chavistas (red gowns, the UH AH anthem, the zenith of sloganeering the revolution was able to produce) meditating.
UH: How can we stop meditating on annual inflation, food scarcity, high crime, and the deteriorating heath services?
AH: Concentrating on a war on Colombia.
-The end-
Chavez recklessly keeps stocking the fire
Apparently chavismo has decided that they have reached a point of no return and that to save Chavez face, or so they think, they must at least reach a break in diplomatic relations. Of course I still think that war is not seriously contemplated by anyone except perhaps Chavez under influence, but the dangerous games that the Chavez administration has been playing are going to force them to suspend relations with Colombia. How else can we explain the latest communique of the Venezuelan foreign desk? How more bananesque a text can one imagine coming from a country supposedly in the XXI century? I suspect that even in the good old days of Gomez (good old days for Chavez anyway since he is imitating the Gomez style more and more) such a communique would have been conceivable. Except that Gomez knew better than play foreign policy, very content to administer his big farm called Venezuela until his death.
Since we must start somewhere let's start with the length of the communique: Venezuela needed 743 words to insult, I mean, reply, to the previous Colombian communique which was only 287 words. Inasmuch as that Colombian communique was in all fairness a tad personal against Chavez (still, infinitely less personal than the repeated attacks of Chavez the previous days) it did not justify the spiteful text that Nicolas Maduro signed. Then again, what can you expect from a failed metro bus driver?
I am not going to bother translating it, it is embarrassing, and thus will limit myself to some highlights to give the tone.
The Colombian government attacks president Chavez because he is the only one who has met success in freeing hostage. Maduro apparently has not been informed that a few hours after the liberation of Gonzales and Rojas, the FARC took 6 new hostages. Quite a success, no? Note also that no opportunity is wasted to glorify the beloved Supremo.
The Colombian government is not committed with freeing hostages because it prefers to beg the interested imperial condescension of the US. Someone should tell Maduro that there are US citizen hostages and that surely enough lots of pressure have been exerted to have then freed. Not to mention the totally gratuitous implication about Colombia foreign policy, certainly not anymore vile toward the US than the Venezuelan one is towards Cuba.
The communique of the Colombian foreign office is riddled with cynicism and hypocrisy. Well, considering that it is barely a third of the Venezuelan one which is riddled with stupidity and ill intentions, the Colombians are either master narrators or Maduro did not get the point at all.
Dozens of intermediaries of high level, linked to president Uribe, are today behind bars for crimes of terrorism, paramilitarism and drug trafficking. Did it occur to Maduro that in Colombia maybe the judicial system works whereas in Venezuela you can steal, lie, cheat, fraud, kill all that you want and as long as you do not travel you will never go to jail?
I think I will stop here. The reader should have now a pretty good idea of what this whole charade is about. And if there is any doubt it is enough to see how fast the monochromatic National Assembly following the cue form their beloved Comandante quickly voted with minimum debate to give belligerent status to the FARC. Only PODEMOS balked, as they are slowly getting used to become the democratic opposition to an increasingly undemocratic chavismo.
I will leave this post with three tidbits.
The Venezuelan government is claiming that the FARC holds no Venezuelans, as a way to try to distract from the fact that around 100 Venezuelans are held hostages (and probably much more). Well, it was quickly denied by some Colombian officials that stated that at least 16 Venezuelans are held by the FARC, for pecuniary reasons.
The Colombian defense minister was non-plussed by the latest Maduro opus. He dismissed it as a Chavez "bravuconada" (somewhere between boast and thuggery?) . but that was not all: a few hours ago he demanded that Chavez submitted the evidence he had as to the Colombian government wanting to assassinate him. Neither him nor long time readers of this blog are holding their breath as to Chavez ever submitting such type of evidence.
Meanwhile we were reminded of the crude reality: Colombian exportations increased by 17.7% from last year. We are not talking here of oil which price is artificially high and which might be falling any time soon if a US recession is confirmed. We are talking actual manufactured goods in addition to raw materials. Radio Caracol specified that just for Venezuela the increase over one year was 80% though I find this hard to believe. However what I found easy to believe is that Venezuela now buys almost as much as half of what the US buys form Colombia and more than what the European Union as a whole buys! That is, per capita, Venezuela is the main client of Colombia, and food is the largest chunk of what we buy there....
-The end-
Since we must start somewhere let's start with the length of the communique: Venezuela needed 743 words to insult, I mean, reply, to the previous Colombian communique which was only 287 words. Inasmuch as that Colombian communique was in all fairness a tad personal against Chavez (still, infinitely less personal than the repeated attacks of Chavez the previous days) it did not justify the spiteful text that Nicolas Maduro signed. Then again, what can you expect from a failed metro bus driver?
I am not going to bother translating it, it is embarrassing, and thus will limit myself to some highlights to give the tone.
The Colombian government attacks president Chavez because he is the only one who has met success in freeing hostage. Maduro apparently has not been informed that a few hours after the liberation of Gonzales and Rojas, the FARC took 6 new hostages. Quite a success, no? Note also that no opportunity is wasted to glorify the beloved Supremo.
The Colombian government is not committed with freeing hostages because it prefers to beg the interested imperial condescension of the US. Someone should tell Maduro that there are US citizen hostages and that surely enough lots of pressure have been exerted to have then freed. Not to mention the totally gratuitous implication about Colombia foreign policy, certainly not anymore vile toward the US than the Venezuelan one is towards Cuba.
The communique of the Colombian foreign office is riddled with cynicism and hypocrisy. Well, considering that it is barely a third of the Venezuelan one which is riddled with stupidity and ill intentions, the Colombians are either master narrators or Maduro did not get the point at all.
Dozens of intermediaries of high level, linked to president Uribe, are today behind bars for crimes of terrorism, paramilitarism and drug trafficking. Did it occur to Maduro that in Colombia maybe the judicial system works whereas in Venezuela you can steal, lie, cheat, fraud, kill all that you want and as long as you do not travel you will never go to jail?
I think I will stop here. The reader should have now a pretty good idea of what this whole charade is about. And if there is any doubt it is enough to see how fast the monochromatic National Assembly following the cue form their beloved Comandante quickly voted with minimum debate to give belligerent status to the FARC. Only PODEMOS balked, as they are slowly getting used to become the democratic opposition to an increasingly undemocratic chavismo.
I will leave this post with three tidbits.
The Venezuelan government is claiming that the FARC holds no Venezuelans, as a way to try to distract from the fact that around 100 Venezuelans are held hostages (and probably much more). Well, it was quickly denied by some Colombian officials that stated that at least 16 Venezuelans are held by the FARC, for pecuniary reasons.
The Colombian defense minister was non-plussed by the latest Maduro opus. He dismissed it as a Chavez "bravuconada" (somewhere between boast and thuggery?) . but that was not all: a few hours ago he demanded that Chavez submitted the evidence he had as to the Colombian government wanting to assassinate him. Neither him nor long time readers of this blog are holding their breath as to Chavez ever submitting such type of evidence.
Meanwhile we were reminded of the crude reality: Colombian exportations increased by 17.7% from last year. We are not talking here of oil which price is artificially high and which might be falling any time soon if a US recession is confirmed. We are talking actual manufactured goods in addition to raw materials. Radio Caracol specified that just for Venezuela the increase over one year was 80% though I find this hard to believe. However what I found easy to believe is that Venezuela now buys almost as much as half of what the US buys form Colombia and more than what the European Union as a whole buys! That is, per capita, Venezuela is the main client of Colombia, and food is the largest chunk of what we buy there....
-The end-
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Is Chavez seeking war with Colombia?
After Wednesday's new bitter exchanges with Colombia one is allowed to start thinking seriously how far will Chavez go in his stupid and totally unnecessary fight with Colombia. But before I go into that and people think I am an alarmist let me start to explain why there will not be a war.
No matter what Chavez in his delirium thinks he can get away with, the geopolitical reality of the relationship between Venezuela and Colombia weighs very heavily against Chavez and Venezuela. Let's list a few items without any particular order of importance.
So, why Chavez, who surely is aware in part of what I write above, is gambling so dangerously against Colombia? Wednesday he went as far as accusing Colombia to plot his assassination without offering any proof (a well rehearsed line against the US even though we are still to see the first real concrete evidence of that). The Colombian government was prompt in issuing a very strong communique where basically they warn Chavez to butt off Colombian internal affairs, to show some respect as they show to him. In fact Colombia came dangerously close to qualify Chavez of terrorist himself by accepting all the terrorist practices of the FARC that he refuses to acknowledge.
What is more worrying, or should at least be more worrying for Chavez is that he is not finding support elsewhere except of Nicaragua and Cuba, both heavily dependent on Venezuela money, both with almost no risk from Colombia were a conflict to explode. Other leaders such as Lula are in no hurry to follow Chavez and are trying to stop him before he does the irreparable. Even Correa of Ecuador and Morales of Bolivia have been either silent of ambiguous. Elsewhere, the Washington Post printed an unambiguous condemnatory editorial where words were not minced:
France and Germany, did not show any support either. There was even a great Liberation editorial which can be compared with the vile propagandist and inaccurate article from the Le Monde Diplomatique (note, NOT Le Monde who is a serous journal and quite anti Chavez), who like Ortega and Castro lives of the largess of Chavez. The manipulative nature of the Diplo work, obviously written in a hurry, shows clearly why this paper has lost any relevance among the cognoscenti of the world, having become what in Venezuela we call "un pasquín".
In brief, it is turning out to be a major foreign policy blunder for Chavez which will cost him more, much more than his failed UN speech. So, why did Chavez took such a demential risk?
The reasons are very simple, he needs desperately to distract Venezuelan attention over his now catastrophic mismanagement of the country.
And to this we could add another reason: the ill health of Fidel in Cuba, the lack of certainty that Raul will be as supportive as Fidel was, the weakened state of the FARC, are all powerful reasons to roll the dice and gamble the future of Chavez career once and for all. When people are in a hurry, and ill advised, that is when their worse mistakes happen.
PS: added later. As luck has it, Weil gives us a 4th cartoon in a row on the current situation, and a cartoon that fits like a glove the long post above. Translation of what Lucifer is telling Chavez: "it is a sure thing, 1) you are financing your true army, 2) they free the hostages, you get the peace Nobel and... 3) you wreck your country's economy."
-The end-
No matter what Chavez in his delirium thinks he can get away with, the geopolitical reality of the relationship between Venezuela and Colombia weighs very heavily against Chavez and Venezuela. Let's list a few items without any particular order of importance.
- As I have said often enough we are not seeing a Venezuelan foreign policy, we are seeing a Chavez foreign policy. The Venezuela public has long ceased to be consulted on what is good for Venezuela. Whatever is decided comes directly from behind closed door meetings between Chavez, a few advisers and Cubans. If Chavez really decides to take Venezuela in uncharted waters, a country who has not been at war with anyone since its independence, there is no predicting what the people's reaction will be, no matter what are the pious declaration of the armed forces or even the newly constituted militia.
- The Venezuelan armed forces are in a very sorry state, a very demoralized one at that. Politics has penetrated in the barracks and the army has been used to distribute chicken and other staples to foster Chavez political fortunes rather than training. Most generals are fat, if not obese, in particular those who show the most devotion to Chavez. There are enough people in the Venezuelan army who know that today Venezuela is unable to sustain a serious war. In front of them would be a much more technical army, a trained one in jungle warfare, an army that more than likely hates the FARC and we can infer will equally hate anyone who supports the FARC. We can seriously doubt that the Venezuelan army will let Chavez drag them into a war that they think they will lose.
- There are geographical factors that also weigh heavily against Venezuela. Zulia, a critical oil area is close to Venezuela and could be very easily neutralized in a few hours, crippling irremediably the means of Venezuela to finance a long protracted war. The main areas of population and military camps are actually close to Caracas, far from the Colombian borders. However the Colombian border is heavyly settled in the departments of Norte de Santander, Santander and Boyaca, offering a very convenient base, a great fall back for a Colombian army attacking the Tachira area. And Colombia industrial might is rather decentralized into 4 areas, 2 of them all but out of reach from Venezuelan airplanes.
- If Venezuela could count on the FARC to wage some internal war, it is doubtful that they would be able to cripple the decentralized industrial fabric of Colombia. In Venezuela by just bombing the A.R.C. you eliminate 30% of the military response capacity at the very least. Besides there is a huge Colombian population in Venezuela who voted heavily, 1 to 5, in favor of Uribe during the 2006 election. The huge Colombian population in Venezuela, even if naturalized, cannot be counted upon to offer much resistance to advancing Colombian armies.
- Only an offensive war by Venezuela could meet a chance of success. And Colombian terrain is much more difficult than Venezuela. And Colombia is much bigger than Venezuela.
- Colombian public opinion would be convinced that they are fighting a just war, Venezuelan public opinion will have no clue why they are in this mess even if they were to support the war. That can only favor Colombia who in addition has several million more folks than Venezuela.
- Finally the trade balance is extraordinarily favorable to Colombia and comes from the huge dependence of feed stuff that we import from Colombia. Any durable closing of the Colombian border and its trade will increase dramatically the scarcity of food items already palpable in Venezuela grocery stores. A state of war with the easy wreak up of Puerto Cabello by a daring Colombian raid could create great problems for the Venezuelan populace. We could starve pretty soon. Armies run on their stomach, you know.
So, why Chavez, who surely is aware in part of what I write above, is gambling so dangerously against Colombia? Wednesday he went as far as accusing Colombia to plot his assassination without offering any proof (a well rehearsed line against the US even though we are still to see the first real concrete evidence of that). The Colombian government was prompt in issuing a very strong communique where basically they warn Chavez to butt off Colombian internal affairs, to show some respect as they show to him. In fact Colombia came dangerously close to qualify Chavez of terrorist himself by accepting all the terrorist practices of the FARC that he refuses to acknowledge.
What is more worrying, or should at least be more worrying for Chavez is that he is not finding support elsewhere except of Nicaragua and Cuba, both heavily dependent on Venezuela money, both with almost no risk from Colombia were a conflict to explode. Other leaders such as Lula are in no hurry to follow Chavez and are trying to stop him before he does the irreparable. Even Correa of Ecuador and Morales of Bolivia have been either silent of ambiguous. Elsewhere, the Washington Post printed an unambiguous condemnatory editorial where words were not minced:
"Venezuela's Hugo Chávez endorses Colombian groups known for abductions, drug trafficking and mass murder."
"In short, Mr. Chávez was endorsing groups dedicated to violence and other criminal behavior in a neighboring Latin American democracy, and associating his agenda with theirs"
"The answer to this logic was provided by the press office of Colombian President Álvaro Uribe, who has been waging what is, in fact, a heroic battle against the brutal gangs that for decades have plagued his country."
""The violent groups of Colombia are terrorists because they kidnap, place bombs indiscriminately, recruit and murder children, murder pregnant women, murder the elderly and use antipersonnel mines that leave in their wake thousands of innocent victims." All these assertions have been well documented by Western human rights groups that are otherwise hostile to Mr. Uribe's government."
"Latin American leaders who until now have seen in Mr. Chávez a crude populist who buys his friends with petrodollars are faced with something new: a head of state who has openly endorsed an organization of kidnappers and drug traffickers in a neighboring, democratic country"
France and Germany, did not show any support either. There was even a great Liberation editorial which can be compared with the vile propagandist and inaccurate article from the Le Monde Diplomatique (note, NOT Le Monde who is a serous journal and quite anti Chavez), who like Ortega and Castro lives of the largess of Chavez. The manipulative nature of the Diplo work, obviously written in a hurry, shows clearly why this paper has lost any relevance among the cognoscenti of the world, having become what in Venezuela we call "un pasquín".
In brief, it is turning out to be a major foreign policy blunder for Chavez which will cost him more, much more than his failed UN speech. So, why did Chavez took such a demential risk?
The reasons are very simple, he needs desperately to distract Venezuelan attention over his now catastrophic mismanagement of the country.
- Food staples keep missing and new ones threaten to be added to the list of vanishing products, in particular there is now a concern with common medicines.
- The subsidy over the price of gas is becoming budgetarily unmanageable. Yet any gas increase is a political time bomb, aggravated by chavismo irresponsible energetic policies.
- The crime wave is now so out of bound that it will take years to solve it. Even more so that the economic reasons that underlie it are not addressed, that is, real jobs are not created.
- There is no hope for the production economy to grow outside of the state spreading money around and promoting an obscene import economy. A recent study show that private investment in Venezuela keeps falling and is even now below the investment received by a small country like Guatemala.
- Poverty, education and other social index seem to fall again. There is a big Dengue epidemic. Mal de Chagas has made a dramatic reappearance in Chacao of all places. More and more Barrio Adentro modules are now closed for lack of staff and/or resources. The promised hospital renovation is nowhere to be seen.
- Inflation has been two years in a row almost the double of the governmental target. The real inflation is about 30% above the official numbers. This year 22.5% official inflation has eaten deeply into the income of the lower sectors who have seen any gain made early in the year not only wiped out but leaving them worse off than what they were before those huge minimal wage increase of last May.
- The ministerial changes early this month have failed completely to reassure the country and generate even a tiny momentary honey moon. Nobody cared in fact. Nobody thinks that the reshuffled group will be able to do anything to improve the situation.
- Corruption is now the constant talk in the street, in addition to personal insecurity and where to find milk.
- And most important of all, the invincibility aura of Chavez seems to have been irremediably broken on December 2. We can even sense with the changing tone in public protests. With yet another electoral year ahead Chavez is suddenly faced with the possibility of a major regional defeat next November that could jeopardize is hold on office.
And to this we could add another reason: the ill health of Fidel in Cuba, the lack of certainty that Raul will be as supportive as Fidel was, the weakened state of the FARC, are all powerful reasons to roll the dice and gamble the future of Chavez career once and for all. When people are in a hurry, and ill advised, that is when their worse mistakes happen.
Del apuro lo que queda es el cansancio.
(From haste, exhaustion- ?-)
PS: added later. As luck has it, Weil gives us a 4th cartoon in a row on the current situation, and a cartoon that fits like a glove the long post above. Translation of what Lucifer is telling Chavez: "it is a sure thing, 1) you are financing your true army, 2) they free the hostages, you get the peace Nobel and... 3) you wreck your country's economy."
-The end-
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Chavez worries about Colombia, gives a rat ass about Venezuela
It looks like our friend Tal Cual cartoonist Weil is on a roll. For the third day in a row he publishes yet another perfect cartoon exposing the mendacity of Chavez on the FARC/Hostage mess. While Chavez postures in front of any TV camera he can find, people keep being murdered or taken for ransom in Venezuela, a few yards even from the presidential palace of Miraflores. Weil is not making that up: I would not walk after sunset anywhere downtown Caracas.
Translation of the caption: "From here I manifest to the World my concern about the violence in Colombia"
Indeed, if Chavez cared half as much about Venezuelan violence as he claims to care about the Colombian one, we would be much better off here.
-The end-
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