The tacky chavista Carnaval: Rio it ain't...

Last Tuesday in Caracas I crossed in Plaza Venezuela this Carnaval parade. Needless to say that my eyes popped out and that I am still looking for my fallen jaw. See, it is not that I am opposed to bring some politics into a Carnaval float, many of the samba schools of Rio constantly do veiled social commentary at the Sambodromo; but what is really bad here, is that politics kills any intention of escapism or folk art that is implicit in any Carnaval festivity. For two days you are supposed to drink, dance and be merry. This is not the time to proclaim all the alleged glories of a pseudo revolution.

But chavismo cannot help itself: all must be for the glory of Chavez, or a reminder of his good deeds. Tackiness, truly bad taste, imposition are all fine when Chavez is glorified. I suppose we cannot help it: there is dearth of intellectuals and well known artists supporting chavismo, and thus the cultural level of chavismo is so low that I should not be surprised. Yet, I am still surprised at the new lows regularly reached, and at tax payer expense by the way since all the cars used for that parade seem to have been official vehicles.

This first picture is of the Che Guevara Mision, the Mision that supposedly trains people to get a real job (it used to be called Mision Vuelvan Caras). In reality, it trains them to be good revolutionaries, and to depend on government stipends. The float is so bad, so ill conceived, so inaccurate (red beret? military Cuban uniform on an easy rider bike??) that we wonder if the people who designed this float had any idea who was Che before they were put in charge of lauding him. This is not Carnaval anymore, this is voodoo reconstruction of a mythic figure. (click all pictures to enlarge for details)

The next picture is something I suppose from Venezuelan history. No more costumes of fairy queens, drag queens or Dairy Queens attendants here: Bolivarian drag only. And observe of course on the left lower corner the clear link to the "bolivarian government". No ambiguity here, on your face propaganda and historical manipulation, with as much red from the flag as possible.



An even more direct intervention, though perhaps justified up to a point, was the float of the Tourism Ministry. But it also fails. The theme was the "Diablos de Yare". This could for the naive visitor seem Carnavalesque enough. But it is not. The Diablos de Yare is a very specific religious activity that takes place on Corpus Cristi, the now forgotten Christian holiday that usually takes place mid June. The masks and costumes have really deep meanings for the practitioners and deserve a little bit of respect. Showing it in such a circumstance is cheapening a very traditional Venezuelan celebration, one that attracts tourists from all around the world. But I suspect that chavistas do not have the cultural level to understand that, and since the Yare Costume is dominated by RED from immemorial times, well, then Yare must have been chavista before Chavez existed.


And to crown all in chavista style, two more floats on medical matters. The first one is a reproduction of one of the modules of Barrio Adentro (the first time by the way I see one with the door open). Grotesquely it comes with its doctor in white lab coat. Human suffering brought to Carnaval parade. Pricelessly tacky.


The second one is an insult to one's intelligence. As the Dengue epidemic keeps growing in Venezuela and more deaths reported, the government of Caracas has nothing better to offer than a silly truck, loaded with bureaucrats in uniform and a billboard that says that Dengue prevention is everybody's work. Maybe, but since the governmental fumigations against the specific mosquito carrier have been woefully deficient, since the public hospitals are unable to face the emergency, since Chavez went as far as to say that the epidemic is from a modified form of the virus (genetically designed by you know who), it is simply pathetic to see the government waste resources on something were a message on how prevention is achieved is not even displayed. By the way, any float on the returning malaria and yellow fever?


This is it, the cultural reach of chavismo, its mediocrity exposed in the most pathetic fashion. But then again Chavez is an uncouth soldier. What can you expect from a lout and the sycophants who he appoints? Where are the artistic masterpieces of Cuba's Castro or Nazi Germany? If you cannot even let the people manage Carnaval as they please, any creativity will be fast squelched.


-The end-

That remote control problem: closing down on Globovision

The international press might have highlighted again the now routine threats that Chavez will close the supply of oil to the US, but that was not the real news from Venezuela. Of course with 12 billion of PDVSA assets frozen, the casual observer might think that Chavez will finally shut down oil supply to the States. But that is not what matters in Caracas today: what matters is the renewed interests of chavismo to shoot the last messenger left, Globovision.

The reasons are very simple, and have not changed: Globovision is the only TV network that regularly displays the problems that the country is suffering, the real problems of the people. Which are these problems? Lack of some food items; crime reaching levels unheard of and putting Caracas in the top 5 more dangerous cities in the world; inflation among the highest in the world, affecting food prices the most, the prices which are most felt by the poor; lack of real jobs as too many depend on government handouts and public services jobs where wearing a red beret is de rigueur; and more, much more. It is easy to understand that at a time where the government is showing increasing strain and where its ineptitude is becoming extraordinarily obvious Globovision (or any other critical media) is something that will need to be dealt with.

There is that saying that homo sapiens is the only animal that stumbles twice over the same stone. It seems that the government has already forgotten that closing RCTV was a huge mistake, a mistake that was in large part the cause of losing the December 2 referendum as it made it clear to the Venezuelan people that the referendum was about naked power grab more than the betterment of the people. Closing Globovision would be a much , much worse mistake. That perspective does not seem to stop chavismo who as it feels the waters rising to its neck is showing signs of acute despair.

The problem for Chavez and the sycophants that surround him is that diversity is not their strong point. They are all mediocre individuals and have reached high position just because Chavez has charisma. Any other group that might show some success in their field is feared because it exposes their mediocrity. It is very simple actually, a very normal emotional reaction for the feeble of mind.

Chavismo simply cannot understand why Globovison is the most worn out button on the remote control in Caracas and Valencia, the only markets where Globovision is on open broadcast (the rest of the country is cable only). That is right: if you have no cable TV in Caracas the TV set will offer you a limited choice. From the government side, most of the media dedicate most of their broadcasting time to support or emit outright propaganda in favor of Chavez. You have VTV, ViVe TV, Teves, Avila TV, Telesur, ANTV just to name the main ones. That is: 6 networks plus the minor players. On the border line supporting of chavismo you have Venevision and Canal I. Neutral there is only Televen. For the opposition there is only Globovision. Though it must be repeated endlessly that Globovision emits the news, that is, emits all the petulant declarations of Chavez and his ministers and offers them a mic if they were to accept their invitation. But the government has become allergic to probing questions by real journalists. On the other hand you can look by yourself how much from the opposition side makes it to the news in the 6 networks mentioned above.

Chavismo is helpless against Globovision whose ratings surpass easily of any of the pro Chavez channels in Caracas, a truly remarkable feat for a 24 news channel. That it is due to the state media passing programs that do not reflect the reality of Venezuela does not seem to reach chavismo folks. So, after having tried to confuse the audiences by offering all sorts of state media, there is only one recourse left for chavismo: take the remote control out of the people's hand. Because this would be the effect of closing Globovision: there will be no more choice for news, thus no more need for channel surfing since all would say "viva Chavez!". Or remain silent.

Unfortunately for chavismo that would spell its final demise. Globovison is increasingly offering its air waves to chavista rank and file complaining that they cannot go to VTV to expose their just causes: a large chunk of chavismo knows now full well that if they have a complaint, the state media will not air it. That is why Chavez must shut up Globovision, as things are getting increasingly difficult for him he thinks he can hide the times through censorship.

-The end-

Of the uselessness of electoral observations

During this morning coffee ritual I got this London Times article in both the comments and e-mail. It is truly an outstanding account on how useless electoral observation is. At best they detect irregularities and dare to denounce some of them. At worst, well, they are the total junket as was the case in Ecuador narrated by the journalist. And the very worst? Well, remember Venezuela 2004. A must read article.

This blogger was endorsing the EU observation before because contrary to other missions it seemed more independent minded, more observant (read the snippet about African "solidarity" on Zimbabwe massive fraud in the cited article). Naively it seems now to this blogger the fact that several countries were involved at once should have guaranteed more sobriety and objectivity. When you read the report of Tom de Castella you can see that it was all about flirting with each other or with he power in place, to get a sense of self superiority. The opposition in each case described by de Castella is secondary to the worries of the observers.

In other words, based on our recent experience of 2007 when no observers came to watch over the referendum vote, the way out of our mess is to go to vote and to stay until all ballots are counted. The students showed to opposition political parties how it is done. In 2006 there were perhaps more than half polling stations without opposition watch dogs which explains the glaring discrepancy in favor of Chavez that de Castella noted in San Felix, a bastion of corrupt chavismo by the way. The result? As this blogger mentioned in the past, a victory for Chavez in 2006 but likely a padded margin; in 2007 a defeat that is forcing the CNE to hide the final result TWO MONTHS after the vote!!!!!!

The message is clear: if the opposition does not start playing hard ball, does not start to take the personal risks necessary to win the elections, Chavez will stay in power forever with an easy cheat. The answer is within us, not with Electoral observers who have all proven to be woefully inefficient, when not partisan, from the Carter Center to even the European Union.

-The end-

NOT fooling all the people all of the time: Chavez retreats

There was today a lovely article by Simon Romero of the New York Times. As the paper correspondent based in Caracas it seems that he is having problems to find some food items too. This sympathetic article is perfectly in tune with the mood of the times, that fin de règne atmosphere that is slowly covering all of us since December 2. A must read, an article that in addition confirms exactly all that this blogger has been writing over the last few months. Thus either he is on the NYT payroll or perhaps Mr. Romero in Caracas is experiencing the same thing that we folks experience all across the country.

And do not miss the scandalous picture for the cover: it was taken in Tachira a few days ago when the army had to control large mobs eager to find food, any food. See, the Colombian border is the most affected by food shortages since Venezuela all but broke relations with Colombia. Curiously, such throngs of people seeking food are not seen on the Colombian side. Gee, I wonder why.....

-The end-

The PDVSA 12 billion: They are missing or not? They matter or not?

There was this little country of Podunkistan who got entangled into some bad management of his sate monopoly of scented geraniums. When the big seed reseller of Empiristan got mad at some joint project for its spring catalogue that went bad it blocked a lot of Pedevesia Stinkera seeds in some storage room on the island state of Netherlandia. Soon the benevolent dictator for life of Podunkistan, Sabaneto Farcosy, sent his scented geranium minister to explain in great details where all the seeds were coming from and who paid for them. It was just a big misunderstanding and the lawyers of both sides went home with only the cab fare for their expenses.

This story unfortunately will not happen in the latest bolivarian debacle, the freezing of 12 billion USD in PDVSA assets. Tonight, getting spinning art in high gear, Ramirez, the PDVSA minister and main "alcahuete" (enabler) of Chavez went on a cadena on his own to explain that all were lies, that PDVSA was immune to the financial actions of Exxon, that the opposition was betraying the fatherland for not supporting the country, that the media were manipulating the whole thing. Which was what he already said earlier today (in English here)

Unfortunately since we have no idea about which are the real numbers of PDVSA considering that no real audit has taken place in years, and since he did not disclose the court injunction details and the documents that would establish that the foreign courts were mislead, we have only his word to validate his speech. And that, after a few years of his tenure plagued with lies and threats, after illegal money bags flying out of PDVSA vaults to Argentina and Bolivia, is not enough.

In other words, when Chavez himself does not come to the forefront, when he sends a rather discredited understudy to defend his polices, well, you know that he is in big deep shit trouble. Though he could be breaking glass at Miraflores again, or visiting the Castro live mummy for advice, or prostrated in one of his bipolar depressed moments. We have seen that in the past.

So, what is the situation today?

True, the 12 billions are spread enough around and involve limited amounts of actual cash (1 billion total?) that a giant like PDVSA can manage for a while. True, the money is not lost, as long as PDVSA wins its trial. True, Fitch did not downgrade (yet?) the Venezuelan debt though at BB- it is far form stellar already and probably does not require further downgrade.

But it is also true that PDVSA has 12 billion less of collateral to keep up its activities, its ability to borrow temporary bridge loans and what not. And since the Venezuelan economy is more than ever PDVSA, then our own ability to borrow and to do business is going to be seriously hampered sooner than later.

Let's look at some of the data reported through the day (all links in English).

First some of details of the financial deal, and the PDVSA top executive flying in a hurry to London (not on tourist fare, I am pretty sure: what is a first class ticket when 12 superdupper grands are at stake?). From the list mentioned there, the assets blocked are not as small as what Ramirez would have us believe. Since chavistas always speak on relative Manichean terms, he might think them small compared to the whole PDVSA, but they are big alright on their own and cost a lot to the state when they were established.

Through 2008 Venezuelan reserves have already dropped by 884 million USD to 32 billion. That is, the 12 billion blocked represent A THIRD OF VENEZUELAN RESERVES!!! Ouch! But we also learn in the same article that PDVSA contributed in the last two years by 13.5 Billion to the FONDEN. In other words the PDVSA blocked assets do represent a very significants hit on Venezuelan assets and finances, no matter what Ramirez burped tonight.

In Europe Venezuelan debt took a further beating as Europeans are simply afraid that Chavez will go crazy on this. It seems that they have taken full measure of the guy.

The political front data is more complex.

We got the usual jingoistic speeches. The one from PPT, a small political party that cannot find enough ways to bend backwards to please Chavez said that it was an imperialist adventure of the UK. It also added, without any sense of ridicule, that the whole thing was done to stop progress form ALBA and the Chavez very own FMI, Banco del Sur. It was thus a litmus test for the Venezuelan opposition who has NEVER consulted on all these mistakes by chavismo that the spokesjerk was mentioning, but should still rally behind Chavez without even a sigh. And sure enough, it called for a protest at the British embassy since he probably thinks that the judicial in the UK is as servile to Exxon as the judicial in Venezuela is servile to Chavez.

The ABN, the official agitprop of Chavez after a long silence, instead of explaining and justifying went to the offensive: the head lines this evening indicated that the "national interests were above those of any private business", it underlined the more checkered past of Exxon, and of course Bush is behind it all. The usual shoot the messenger, certainly not a study on badly managed PDVSA is.

And of course the inénarrable speech from the National Assembly head of energy commission, Angel Rodriguez. "...comes as part of an exercise of full oil sovereignty in Venezuelan territory. Any dispute or lawsuit should be addressed under the jurisdiction of domestic courts only.". Yeah right, the Venezuelan courts are going to be fair if Exxon is a plaintiff.... But beyond this ridiculous statement we must see one sad reality: Rodriguez not only actually thinks that a biased judicial system is alright, but he also has no idea on how investing operates. When Exxon went to the Orinoco it probably chose that investment over another one in, say, Podunkistan. Now, it cannot go back there and will lose sales and access to oil reserves just because Chavez woke up one morning deciding that all oil should be done by PDVSA alone. Exxon is justifiably suing for breach of trust and fraud. No matter how much we are allowed to despise Exxon after the Valdez, they have the right to sue not only for the equipment seized, but also for the lost business that chavismo accepted for many years. If you accept that Exxon can be spoiled just like that, then you accept that Chavez can take away your land or home or business without fair compensation whenever he will feel like it.

It is that simple.

If that makes me a traitor, so be it.


-The end-

Chavez political cash frozen by, Exxon?

[Updated]

Thinking a little bit more about what I just posted, that 12 billion USD were frozen until a settlement takes place between Venezuela and Exxon Mobil, I realized that this was a much bigger issue than what I thought originally. And trust me, I did not underestimate it even though I posted late on it.

See, the first question is what the heck is PDVSA doing with around 12 billion dollars in banks accounts of Aruba and Curaçao? I mean, sure, there are some oil tankers to be managed, some payrolls to be met, but 12 billions? In Curaçao? For that money you almost own the darned island!

I suspect that this is one of the ways that Chavez has financed his little adventures. PDVSA keeps its money overseas, at least part of it. That way it is not scrutinized by Venezuelan controls (as those might be...). Then he can decide to buy lots of milk for Mercal or send a check to finance Evo in Bolivia or pay for whatever political buy out he needs to do.

OF course there are people in the US that are specialized in tracking down money and they have known long ago where PDVSA cash is. Surely they were delighted to tell Exxon where to go to get the loot. And at the same time they get to cramp down Chavez style. A sweat deal, no? There is nothing innocent about the whole thing. But then again Chavez has only himself to blame, does he not? After all, the aggrieved party is Exxon and since the PDVSA money will not go all to the Venezuelan people anyway as it is more and more siphoned out by corruption and obscene foreign interventions, why should Exxon abstain form its fair share? What Venezuelans will Exxon hurt that are not already hurting?

I suspect that chavismo will manage to arrange some deal and pay off Exxon quick. After all, fighting back with even more takeover of US assets will only result in less money for his adventures. That he cannot do without, the more so that regional elections loom. And let's face it: who is going to support some guy who backs the FARC druggies and robs investors, not to mention his own citizens? They might support him on hot air, but now we are talking big bucks. People understand big bucks; they do not like folks who take the big bucks away without any real reason.

Then again Chavez has done enough certifiable things recently that he might finally go for his confrontation with the Empire. Since no one will invest anything or lend anything or sell anything to Venezuela while this situation exists (they risk Venezuela to default if more assets are seized and to be unable to pay its bills) we might be starving and yet neither the US nor Colombia will fire a single shot at us. Ah! The wonders of globalization! Defeated by the banks!

Update: I need to make a small correction. I suppose that the Curaçao assets also include the giant Curaçao refinery. It is not clear exactly how much money was in the Netherlands Antilles banks (though it seems to have been more than what was needed anyway for day to day run of PDVSA business in the island). Still, the only thing that this would change would be the speed at which Venezuelan finances will be affected. Curaçao refinery is a collateral for any loan that PDVSA or Venezuela needs to raise. Now they cannot. Same effect, posterior date. Not to mention that so much oil is refined at Curaçao that any judicial closing of it would affect PDVSA greatly. Because of course you can bet that after this precedent there are more judicial actions on the way against Venezuela.

-The end-

PDVSA assets to be frozen?

When Chavez decided to nationalize the Orinoco oil fields last year some companies did not like it. They did not like it even more since some of the contracts had been established by the Chavez administration itself, now going back on its word. But of course, Chavez who takes away without adequate compensation any property from Venezuelans could not care less about taking property from foreigners, even more if he lied to them in the first place.

Unfortunately for Chavez, he cannot name judges elsewhere like he does in Venezuela, and even have his people call their people for his legal needs. Exxon Mobil, aware of that, went to a British court, NOT a US court, mind you!, to ask for redress and fair compensation and apparently 12 billion USD at least of PDVSA assets overseas will be frozen. Until a final court decision comes, that is. The Chavez con job was confronted.

What next? Chavez will scream, start taking illegally more US assets in Venezuela, PDVSA will keep losing more assets overseas (Citgo?). Chavez will be seen as a hero by the silly left. And here in Venezuela? Well, we will starve, as PDVSA already falling production will be harder and harder to place overseas and nobody will come to invest a single penny in a country where not even your home is safe from a chavista greed. The price of oil will go up but we will not be able to benefit of it. All for Chavez big mouth and whims.

-The end-