El Universal has, in Spanish, the complete details of the case of General Uson, swiftly condenmed to 5 years in jail for emitting an opinion that displeased the military establishment. Would'nt some generals around the world wish for such protection!.
http://www.eluniversal.com/expe_index.shtml
The pattern of things to come?
Monday, October 25, 2004
Sunday, October 24, 2004
(in)justice in Venezuela
Three recent trials that illustrate the lack of due judicial process
It is well known that justice does not exist in Venezuela and that most cases are settled outside of courts or behind closed doors with substantial payoffs. Cases that refuse to go along find themselves languishing for decades in some drawers.
This blogger himself has been victim of judicial fraud and does not harbor any illusion as to the functionality of the judicial system in Venezuela. Basically, gaining a case means to have the lawyer with the best connections and enough millions to bribe whoever needs to be bribed. This could start at the level of the dossier court clerk just to have a timely access to the evidence submitted by the other party. The end, well, it is "rumored" that it could be all the way to the High Court.
This corruption has created a nether world where justice and its dealings evolve far from the regards of all, included the central administration in charge. One charitable way to see the new judicial power law is that chavismo is trying to take control of the judicial power to at least make it more predictable and less corrupt, if shamelessly favoring Chavez side. I suppose that some could see that as an improvement.
Three recent cases illustrate that the situation is far from improving in spite of a new constitution, the revamping of the judicial system in 1999, and now a new revamping again.
General Uson
A couple of weeks ago ex General Uson got 5 years for having expressed his opinion as to the Fort Mara burnt soldiers. The speed of that trial contrasts with the tardiness of the investigation as to the officers in charge that, now distant, day who still have not fully declared and where no one still is investigated for that crime. This immoral discrepancy demonstrates what is the goal of Chavez judicial system: muzzle the opposition. Thus Uson has become the first officially declared political prisoner of the regime, officially the first "thought/opinion" victim of the glorious bolivarian revolution, all accompanied by the perfect mock trial, totalitarian style. All legal, all unethical. With such a precedent it is clear for all that one can be jailed for his opinions in Venezuela, again since the era of the cuadillos.
Linda Loaiza
I have been avoiding talking about this very painful case that has greatly distressed me, perhaps because one of the hiding places of the criminal holding the victim was a few blocks from where I live in San Felipe. Those things have a way to dirty one's soul in mysterious ways even if one could not know, or do anything about it. Any violence against minority groups is always a repulsive affair and how a state deals with it is a good indicator of its moral standing. How the state allows the murk to reach all of its citizens is also a way to control the people.
With the Linda Loaiza case, Venezuela clearly demonstrates that today the defenseless are as defenseless as they have ever been, when not perversely guilty of their own inferiority (In English in El Universal: the result and the background with pictures though for some reason her name is consistently misspelled).
Few cases have brought so much graphic evidence to court. Few cases have been so delayed, unaccountably, until the victim herself undertook a hunger strike. Yet, amazingly, in spite of all the evidence, in spite of all the strong will of the victim, the alleged criminal walks out innocent.
Now, one must entertain the incredible possibility that Carrera is indeed innocent and that Linda tried to take advantage of him. However his exculpation brings very important questions to the front.
This has to be one of the most disgusting cases in Venezuela rich history of disgusting cases. One cannot help to wonder about the judge motivations and legal habits when the official prosecutors, the opposition, the human rights groups, the government all coincide in denouncing the travesty and asking for an investigation of the judge. Definitely judge Cadiz must explain the reasons of her sweeping ruling. Chances are that it will soon be forgotten by the next disgusting case coming along. Societies that forget are condemned to relive their mistakes.
But there are some observations that should be made, some unfortunately lacking of documented evidence, as it is the case in defective and corrupt judicial systems. Carrera's father, an ex university rector, is known to have good contacts with some of the pro Chavez members of the judicial system. His attempts at manipulating the outcome are known, his lawyers tried all possible ways to delay the trial until a "non lieu" would come. Not to mention that he was himself on trial for having tried to have his son escape the country, and justice. If it were not for Loaiza's hunger strike the trial would still not have taken place. Judge Cadiz is a "provisional judge" and thus subject to all sorts of pressures. The judicial system reorganization of 1999 has resulted in up to 85% of judges as provisional, which is of course very convenient for the government as they will get tenure only if they please the Chavez administration.
All of this elements conspire and make us believe that indeed the judicial system is rotten to the core and only serves the interests of the powerful. Woe is us!
The April coup mongers: two sub cases
Two judicial maneuvers illustrate another grave fault of the current judicial system: disregard for precedent. This has been exacerbated to the outmost by the glorious revolution that does not want to owe anything to the past, though it owes its rise to power. But that is conveniently forgotten.
In August 2002 the high Court ruled that there was no coup on April 11 2002, that there was a "power vacuum" that had to be filled. One interpretation is that the nomination of Carmona was justified since the Army Chief of staff, Lucas Rincon, had announced that Chavez had resigned and that himself and the high command submitted their own resignations. That the subsequent Carmona decree was a coup d'etat by itself is out of question. But that one comes AFTER Chavez resigns and is NOT THE CAUSE of Chavez resignation. This interpretation of course cannot please a Chavez trying to build his heroic legend. By all means, from propaganda to judicial action, he is trying to reverse in fact, if not in practice, that ruling. A ruling by the way who would still allow him to pursue Carmona if he wanted to, but for other reasons that are not as politically convenient.
It is this perspective that one must understand the trial of the Tachira "insurgents". Even the governor, the visual victim of violence on April 12, is on record saying that the real instigators of the Tachira upheaval were not the ones on trial. In the end it was irrelevant: a guilty verdict had to be emitted and justice proceeded in a ruling which shows all the seams of a badly sawn judicial ectoplasm.
It is also this history rewriting perspective that we must use to understand the latest witch hunt of prosecutor extraordinaire, Danilo Anderson. The people that happened to be in Miraflores on April 12 or 13 have to be investigated, whether they signed an attendance book or the actual Carmona decree. Now, some, I am sure, were active plotters against Chavez before April 11. They lost and thus they should be accountable. But of the 200 + list, a few just happened to be at the wrong place and the wrong time, such as Maria Corina Machado of Sumate. But Chavez would not pass on the opportunity to use this to eliminate Sumate, the organization that has allowed the humiliation to have to go to a Recall Election.
All of these actions are a clear statement on how the judicial system is used purely for political goals, or personal advantage, regardless of the true nature of the crime. Any regard for real justice becomes an after thought at best. People that defend such actions, fellow travelers abroad or local beneficiaries, should remember that Chavez was treated infinitely better in February 1992 when his coup was a bloody affair, a Chavez who was admitting to unseat the government in place and who confessed having been plotting for years and years. But in those years we still tried to be a democracy and still tried to pretend that there was such a thing as the rule of law. These days are over.
It is well known that justice does not exist in Venezuela and that most cases are settled outside of courts or behind closed doors with substantial payoffs. Cases that refuse to go along find themselves languishing for decades in some drawers.
This blogger himself has been victim of judicial fraud and does not harbor any illusion as to the functionality of the judicial system in Venezuela. Basically, gaining a case means to have the lawyer with the best connections and enough millions to bribe whoever needs to be bribed. This could start at the level of the dossier court clerk just to have a timely access to the evidence submitted by the other party. The end, well, it is "rumored" that it could be all the way to the High Court.
This corruption has created a nether world where justice and its dealings evolve far from the regards of all, included the central administration in charge. One charitable way to see the new judicial power law is that chavismo is trying to take control of the judicial power to at least make it more predictable and less corrupt, if shamelessly favoring Chavez side. I suppose that some could see that as an improvement.
Three recent cases illustrate that the situation is far from improving in spite of a new constitution, the revamping of the judicial system in 1999, and now a new revamping again.
General Uson
A couple of weeks ago ex General Uson got 5 years for having expressed his opinion as to the Fort Mara burnt soldiers. The speed of that trial contrasts with the tardiness of the investigation as to the officers in charge that, now distant, day who still have not fully declared and where no one still is investigated for that crime. This immoral discrepancy demonstrates what is the goal of Chavez judicial system: muzzle the opposition. Thus Uson has become the first officially declared political prisoner of the regime, officially the first "thought/opinion" victim of the glorious bolivarian revolution, all accompanied by the perfect mock trial, totalitarian style. All legal, all unethical. With such a precedent it is clear for all that one can be jailed for his opinions in Venezuela, again since the era of the cuadillos.
Linda Loaiza
I have been avoiding talking about this very painful case that has greatly distressed me, perhaps because one of the hiding places of the criminal holding the victim was a few blocks from where I live in San Felipe. Those things have a way to dirty one's soul in mysterious ways even if one could not know, or do anything about it. Any violence against minority groups is always a repulsive affair and how a state deals with it is a good indicator of its moral standing. How the state allows the murk to reach all of its citizens is also a way to control the people.
With the Linda Loaiza case, Venezuela clearly demonstrates that today the defenseless are as defenseless as they have ever been, when not perversely guilty of their own inferiority (In English in El Universal: the result and the background with pictures though for some reason her name is consistently misspelled).
Few cases have brought so much graphic evidence to court. Few cases have been so delayed, unaccountably, until the victim herself undertook a hunger strike. Yet, amazingly, in spite of all the evidence, in spite of all the strong will of the victim, the alleged criminal walks out innocent.
Now, one must entertain the incredible possibility that Carrera is indeed innocent and that Linda tried to take advantage of him. However his exculpation brings very important questions to the front.
How could Ms. Loaiza lie so consistently and so long? This is very unlikely, in spite of some contradictions within Loaiza testimonial. As the victim of a horrible crime she could be excused from not remembering all of the horror.
If Carrera did not abuse and mutilate Loaiza, who did? How come the judge did not order further investigation on this respect? Instead she allowed for the investigation of Loaiza motives, in spite the fact that she bears the visible scar of her ordeal.
How come dozens of judges refused to take on that trial, in particular if the evidence were so clearly exculpating the criminal according to Judge Cadiz?
How come that the trial allowed the possibility that Ms. Loaiza might have been a sex worker, even though this was ruled out later? Should the judge not have asked for a full investigation of that to either clear the name of Loaiza or, if anything, really exculpate Carrera? Instead, Ms. Loaiza sees her attacker free and her name sullied without a chance to clear herself.
And more.
This has to be one of the most disgusting cases in Venezuela rich history of disgusting cases. One cannot help to wonder about the judge motivations and legal habits when the official prosecutors, the opposition, the human rights groups, the government all coincide in denouncing the travesty and asking for an investigation of the judge. Definitely judge Cadiz must explain the reasons of her sweeping ruling. Chances are that it will soon be forgotten by the next disgusting case coming along. Societies that forget are condemned to relive their mistakes.
But there are some observations that should be made, some unfortunately lacking of documented evidence, as it is the case in defective and corrupt judicial systems. Carrera's father, an ex university rector, is known to have good contacts with some of the pro Chavez members of the judicial system. His attempts at manipulating the outcome are known, his lawyers tried all possible ways to delay the trial until a "non lieu" would come. Not to mention that he was himself on trial for having tried to have his son escape the country, and justice. If it were not for Loaiza's hunger strike the trial would still not have taken place. Judge Cadiz is a "provisional judge" and thus subject to all sorts of pressures. The judicial system reorganization of 1999 has resulted in up to 85% of judges as provisional, which is of course very convenient for the government as they will get tenure only if they please the Chavez administration.
All of this elements conspire and make us believe that indeed the judicial system is rotten to the core and only serves the interests of the powerful. Woe is us!
The April coup mongers: two sub cases
Two judicial maneuvers illustrate another grave fault of the current judicial system: disregard for precedent. This has been exacerbated to the outmost by the glorious revolution that does not want to owe anything to the past, though it owes its rise to power. But that is conveniently forgotten.
In August 2002 the high Court ruled that there was no coup on April 11 2002, that there was a "power vacuum" that had to be filled. One interpretation is that the nomination of Carmona was justified since the Army Chief of staff, Lucas Rincon, had announced that Chavez had resigned and that himself and the high command submitted their own resignations. That the subsequent Carmona decree was a coup d'etat by itself is out of question. But that one comes AFTER Chavez resigns and is NOT THE CAUSE of Chavez resignation. This interpretation of course cannot please a Chavez trying to build his heroic legend. By all means, from propaganda to judicial action, he is trying to reverse in fact, if not in practice, that ruling. A ruling by the way who would still allow him to pursue Carmona if he wanted to, but for other reasons that are not as politically convenient.
It is this perspective that one must understand the trial of the Tachira "insurgents". Even the governor, the visual victim of violence on April 12, is on record saying that the real instigators of the Tachira upheaval were not the ones on trial. In the end it was irrelevant: a guilty verdict had to be emitted and justice proceeded in a ruling which shows all the seams of a badly sawn judicial ectoplasm.
It is also this history rewriting perspective that we must use to understand the latest witch hunt of prosecutor extraordinaire, Danilo Anderson. The people that happened to be in Miraflores on April 12 or 13 have to be investigated, whether they signed an attendance book or the actual Carmona decree. Now, some, I am sure, were active plotters against Chavez before April 11. They lost and thus they should be accountable. But of the 200 + list, a few just happened to be at the wrong place and the wrong time, such as Maria Corina Machado of Sumate. But Chavez would not pass on the opportunity to use this to eliminate Sumate, the organization that has allowed the humiliation to have to go to a Recall Election.
All of these actions are a clear statement on how the judicial system is used purely for political goals, or personal advantage, regardless of the true nature of the crime. Any regard for real justice becomes an after thought at best. People that defend such actions, fellow travelers abroad or local beneficiaries, should remember that Chavez was treated infinitely better in February 1992 when his coup was a bloody affair, a Chavez who was admitting to unseat the government in place and who confessed having been plotting for years and years. But in those years we still tried to be a democracy and still tried to pretend that there was such a thing as the rule of law. These days are over.
Eva Golinger in Aporrea
This blog prides itself to let its readers find the pro Chavez information in its very own home page. While of course no pro-Chavez site refers to anything from the opposition. But that should not be a surprise.
In this perspective I am linking what I just found in Aporrea, the (in)famous chavista portal. Thus people can find in Spanish what I referred to last night. Golinger's presentation on VTV must have pleased the powers that be since already her interview is posted in Aporrea (1). Though not with the preeminence that she might have hoped, the Columbus statue incident still holding half of the home page...
I should at least, in the helpful spirit that characterizes this blogger, point that some of the stuff she writes about is already public knowledge in Venezuela. Of course, she might not have had time to read books such as the one from Armando Duran, "Venezuela en llamas" or "El acertijo de abril" by two really impartial journalists from who we could all learn something, besides objectivity. I suggest that she takes time from her busy schedule in Caracas to shop for some books, if they are not too tainted for her high standards.
--------------
(1) curiously this article is signed by Eva herself though it is obviously a summary of her TV show.
In this perspective I am linking what I just found in Aporrea, the (in)famous chavista portal. Thus people can find in Spanish what I referred to last night. Golinger's presentation on VTV must have pleased the powers that be since already her interview is posted in Aporrea (1). Though not with the preeminence that she might have hoped, the Columbus statue incident still holding half of the home page...
I should at least, in the helpful spirit that characterizes this blogger, point that some of the stuff she writes about is already public knowledge in Venezuela. Of course, she might not have had time to read books such as the one from Armando Duran, "Venezuela en llamas" or "El acertijo de abril" by two really impartial journalists from who we could all learn something, besides objectivity. I suggest that she takes time from her busy schedule in Caracas to shop for some books, if they are not too tainted for her high standards.
--------------
(1) curiously this article is signed by Eva herself though it is obviously a summary of her TV show.
Saturday, October 23, 2004
Eva Golinger on VTV
Tonight, in a fit of aimlessness, I pressed my cable remote to watch the state TV, which I had not watched in a long time. I was not disappointed: Eva Golinger was on TV! Readers might remember that I have had a slight encounter with her through this blog. Since then she has made quite a name for herself by divulging the Sumate donations from the NED, donations which have resulted in indictments to Sumate.
Now she has branched in a series of articles in Venezuelanalysis, the pro Chavez English language site. In these articles she is trying to create an "intellectual" framework for the attempt by the Chavez administration to muzzle the media.
Tonight she is collaborating in a perfectly crafted show to expose a certain amount of "notions" based on her "findings". Of course the objective of the whole montage is to convince/educate the chavista masses of the well founded reasons that the Chavez administration has to put into jail Sumate and whatever it needs to put into jail. That whatever already includes Primero Justicia mentioned by Eva early in the show.
Nothing new really. Golinger is just behaving like a Chavez agent in the United States, doing pretty much the same type of "foreign" intervention in Venezuela that she so much reproaches to the National Endowment for Democracy. Political hypocrisy. The sad part is that it is so blatant, so primitive. And even sadder is that some of her points would actually be quite interesting, at least in reference to what was the US role in April 2002. But her desire to sink Sumate, a post April 2002 set up, sink her objectivity.
I was wondering, as I was watching this rather intellectually vacuous show, if Eva was aware of what was going on during the intermissions. Did she noticed that the only adds that were appearing were political adds for some chavista candidate? That the opposition was barred from VTV while Chavez does any cadena or add he pleases on commercial TV? Also, did she think about the money Venezuela is pouring inside the US to foster its cause? Assuming of course that her claims that she is receiving nothing are true (though one would like to know who paid her expenses in all these pro Chavez manifestations she visits). Is Eva bothered by all the public monies spent by the Chavez administration for vote buying? Amounts by the way that I am sure dwarf any money spent by the US to oust Chavez, if she only would bother checking it out.
But of course Eva Golinger is not very interested in balance and equilibrium in Venezuela. Like many of these "fellow travelers", as Gustavo reminds us in his latest article, Eva is probably using Venezuela for her own aims in the United States. Her cause might be anti-Bush, anti Iraq war, anti whatever and she will jump on any horse that will help her fight back. Not to mention any horse that might finance her or her activities or ideally both. Vcrisis has uncovered some of that stuff, at least for some of her "fellow travelers". One thing is certain, after tonight I am totally convinced that she is a Chavez agent. Not that I doubted it before, but tonight show was just too polished, too timely. If she is not paid for it, she richly deserves it.
Now, if she could explain me how I could get some of that NED money to support this blog :-)
PS: live blogging again!
Now she has branched in a series of articles in Venezuelanalysis, the pro Chavez English language site. In these articles she is trying to create an "intellectual" framework for the attempt by the Chavez administration to muzzle the media.
Tonight she is collaborating in a perfectly crafted show to expose a certain amount of "notions" based on her "findings". Of course the objective of the whole montage is to convince/educate the chavista masses of the well founded reasons that the Chavez administration has to put into jail Sumate and whatever it needs to put into jail. That whatever already includes Primero Justicia mentioned by Eva early in the show.
Nothing new really. Golinger is just behaving like a Chavez agent in the United States, doing pretty much the same type of "foreign" intervention in Venezuela that she so much reproaches to the National Endowment for Democracy. Political hypocrisy. The sad part is that it is so blatant, so primitive. And even sadder is that some of her points would actually be quite interesting, at least in reference to what was the US role in April 2002. But her desire to sink Sumate, a post April 2002 set up, sink her objectivity.
I was wondering, as I was watching this rather intellectually vacuous show, if Eva was aware of what was going on during the intermissions. Did she noticed that the only adds that were appearing were political adds for some chavista candidate? That the opposition was barred from VTV while Chavez does any cadena or add he pleases on commercial TV? Also, did she think about the money Venezuela is pouring inside the US to foster its cause? Assuming of course that her claims that she is receiving nothing are true (though one would like to know who paid her expenses in all these pro Chavez manifestations she visits). Is Eva bothered by all the public monies spent by the Chavez administration for vote buying? Amounts by the way that I am sure dwarf any money spent by the US to oust Chavez, if she only would bother checking it out.
But of course Eva Golinger is not very interested in balance and equilibrium in Venezuela. Like many of these "fellow travelers", as Gustavo reminds us in his latest article, Eva is probably using Venezuela for her own aims in the United States. Her cause might be anti-Bush, anti Iraq war, anti whatever and she will jump on any horse that will help her fight back. Not to mention any horse that might finance her or her activities or ideally both. Vcrisis has uncovered some of that stuff, at least for some of her "fellow travelers". One thing is certain, after tonight I am totally convinced that she is a Chavez agent. Not that I doubted it before, but tonight show was just too polished, too timely. If she is not paid for it, she richly deserves it.
Now, if she could explain me how I could get some of that NED money to support this blog :-)
PS: live blogging again!
Friday, October 22, 2004
Something is up in Venezuela
Things that go bump in the dark?
On the road and busy is not easy to try to judge what is going on in Venezuela. But I am quite certain that some people are making some really strange moves. A little summary of what I have been able to piece together, assorted of what can only be speculative opinions.
Chavismo in campaign
Chavez is full time on the campaign trail again. We already know that this is the only thing he is good at, because he sucks at running the country. Still, the extent to which he is campaigning for the pro Chavez candidates is unprecedented, and with few parallels in democratic countries, assuming we are still in one. For a fraction of what Chavez does daily Lula was reprimanded recently on some of his acts in the recent regional elections in Brazil (1). I mean, it is OK for a president to point out who he likes best, but Chavez comes all fire and brimstone to not only support his candidate but damn to eternal hell any opposition candidates and any chavista that thinks that another pro Chavez candidate might have been better choice. And let's not get started on all of the promises in case HIS candidate wins, and all the use of public monies for these campaigns.
In fact there is a certain air of sudden desperation. Chavez is trying real hard to get back the agenda which he seems to have suddenly lost! Be it the Burning Tower (2), the opposition resignations, the slowly imploding Electoral Board, CNE, the refusal to come of the international observers, etc...
The imploding CNE
The fraud talks are not going away. The massive abstention talk is not going away and might even include a substantial fraction of the chavista base who feels equally that there is no point to go and vote when their candidate will win anyway. The 4th and lone Director persists in her accusations against the 3 other directors. The 5th one has not been replaced. But this does not stop the CNE to ask in next year budget almost as much money for "entertainment" than is required for Caracas Police. As a result a few days before the election of the 31 the board has all but stopped gathering to vote the necessary rulings, pretty much letting the show be run by committees. This of course is not propitious to improve an atmosphere of trust that could reduce the probable abstention.
In what seems now a fruitless effort, the CNE mini "cadena" campaign, on the hour, to a level NEVER seen in our democratic history, redoubles intensity as it is assorted with adds in between cadenas. One spot features a few kids passing along a rumor that gets of course totally distorted. A silly add if they hoped that the people stopped listening to swirling rumors and only listen to official CNE announcements.
But the hard facts are that the electoral test run for the new system was a failure, no other test run has been done, the electoral registry is now so contested that the CNE is reduced to reply by plain denial without showing the data they claim they have, more evidence of non-legal acts keeps coming up, more legal actions are introduced against the CNE on the High Court, etc, etc…
The CNE has stopped functioning even if its employees are trying to muddle along hoping to reach October 31 one way or the other as the speculations to a suspension of the election are growing. Carrasquero now only drives around Caracas with a gigantic escort. Rodriguez has stopped meeting the press, an activity he dearly loved in the past. Battaglini is all but AWOL. Sobella Mejias seems to be left to a constant bitching at the other three and Kornblith has been waiting now for a month to be allowed to take the 5th chair.
Will we vote on October 31?
It is anyone's guess. But the odds look lower and lower.
The opposition might go and vote. Then again it might not.
Now it has become quite fashionable to announce that one will not go and vote on October 31. Usually people that propose this form of "resistance" are of little importance and little following. And they all forget that Chavez laughs at abstention. One vote is enough for him and niceties and legalities are not very high in his concerns. They all also forgot that on April 1999 abstention was promoted, abstention won but we still got a new unworkable constitution. They NEVER learn.
But do we see anyone actively organizing street protest? Civil disobedience on the 31? Offering concrete solutions to force the CNE stop cheating? No. But we do see some serious candidates dropping out of the race! Speeding up the possible suicide of the opposition in some areas! Can anyone imagine Juan Barreto as Caracas Mayor at Large? I am ready to bet that a significant portion of chavistas are not pleased by that idea!!!!! But he will become the mayor as the only other candidate left is Claudio Fermin and he is almost as despised as Barreto is.
The hand of AD?
It is difficult to understand really what is going on within the opposition. Obviously it has been unable to reach unity and this is in large part due to Accion Democratica, AD. It has stopped long ago moderating its tone on its opposition rivals, sometimes attacking them as hard or harder than the chavista candidate! Yet it seems that AD strategy is partially successful. Its insistence on running and forgetting about the fraud in spite of the Alvarez report is paying off in that the rest of the opposition is not only further demoralized but is even abandoning Alvarez in spite of his brilliant work. Most candidates that have dropped off so far are not from AD. Is that the price that AD is charging the rest of the opposition to accept a minimum of unity and rejoin the fight against Chavez?
Now let's be clear about AD motives here. Whatever the game of AD is, it is very simple: what is in here for me? AD still has no project, no plan, no nothing. Just the remains of a structure that it hopes to save for future days. And for that it needs a few town halls, a couple of states, and no other opposition. AD has decided that Chavez will be there until 2012 not because he is so great but because AD is bereft of any charismatic leader. They know that the only way to create a viable presidential candidate for them is to create a successful mayor or AD governor. A populist one of course as AD cannot rule in any other fashion. This will take at least 4 years, until 2009. Thus their strategy:
For some reason AD thinks that it can survive the chavista onslaught. Though the Alvarez report predicts that AD would lose at least half of its town halls due to the manipulated Electoral Registry. And the Monagas governor, the only one from AD, has been savagely attacked by Chavez the other day. Apparently if AD was hoping to become the chavista designated opposition, it might be in for a rude awakening. AD is making a big mistake: to think that they are still in 1998 and that Chavez eventually will come around and deal like your regular pol. They are in for a rude awakening, and dragging us to hell in the process.
--------------
(1) Added later. Lula da Silva was fined for supporting Sao Paulo mayor using some public project as a background. The fine was 18, 000 USD. At the rate that Chavez is using public works and programs to support his candidates, if he were Brazil president he would be owing millions and millions in fines. Now that I think of it, maybe that is the reason some leaders support Chavez: they admire his ability to get away with murder.
(2) The latest rumor on the burnt Eastern Tower is that some explosion started the fire. And some other explosion in the lower floors might have taken place later. And also that the "situation" center for the fraud might have been located in one of the burnt floors. Conspiracy theorists are of course all out in force. It is very easy to speculate that the Alvarez report triggered the need to burn everything down. Thus the explosions. We'll see, maybe, because one thing is certain, investigations will be sloppy and we will never know the truth, as we will never know the truth on any event that is an embarassment for Chavez, such as Montesinos, April 11, the guerilla penetration, the financial allocations, the real output of PDVSA and on, and on.
On the road and busy is not easy to try to judge what is going on in Venezuela. But I am quite certain that some people are making some really strange moves. A little summary of what I have been able to piece together, assorted of what can only be speculative opinions.
Chavismo in campaign
Chavez is full time on the campaign trail again. We already know that this is the only thing he is good at, because he sucks at running the country. Still, the extent to which he is campaigning for the pro Chavez candidates is unprecedented, and with few parallels in democratic countries, assuming we are still in one. For a fraction of what Chavez does daily Lula was reprimanded recently on some of his acts in the recent regional elections in Brazil (1). I mean, it is OK for a president to point out who he likes best, but Chavez comes all fire and brimstone to not only support his candidate but damn to eternal hell any opposition candidates and any chavista that thinks that another pro Chavez candidate might have been better choice. And let's not get started on all of the promises in case HIS candidate wins, and all the use of public monies for these campaigns.
In fact there is a certain air of sudden desperation. Chavez is trying real hard to get back the agenda which he seems to have suddenly lost! Be it the Burning Tower (2), the opposition resignations, the slowly imploding Electoral Board, CNE, the refusal to come of the international observers, etc...
The imploding CNE
The fraud talks are not going away. The massive abstention talk is not going away and might even include a substantial fraction of the chavista base who feels equally that there is no point to go and vote when their candidate will win anyway. The 4th and lone Director persists in her accusations against the 3 other directors. The 5th one has not been replaced. But this does not stop the CNE to ask in next year budget almost as much money for "entertainment" than is required for Caracas Police. As a result a few days before the election of the 31 the board has all but stopped gathering to vote the necessary rulings, pretty much letting the show be run by committees. This of course is not propitious to improve an atmosphere of trust that could reduce the probable abstention.
In what seems now a fruitless effort, the CNE mini "cadena" campaign, on the hour, to a level NEVER seen in our democratic history, redoubles intensity as it is assorted with adds in between cadenas. One spot features a few kids passing along a rumor that gets of course totally distorted. A silly add if they hoped that the people stopped listening to swirling rumors and only listen to official CNE announcements.
But the hard facts are that the electoral test run for the new system was a failure, no other test run has been done, the electoral registry is now so contested that the CNE is reduced to reply by plain denial without showing the data they claim they have, more evidence of non-legal acts keeps coming up, more legal actions are introduced against the CNE on the High Court, etc, etc…
The CNE has stopped functioning even if its employees are trying to muddle along hoping to reach October 31 one way or the other as the speculations to a suspension of the election are growing. Carrasquero now only drives around Caracas with a gigantic escort. Rodriguez has stopped meeting the press, an activity he dearly loved in the past. Battaglini is all but AWOL. Sobella Mejias seems to be left to a constant bitching at the other three and Kornblith has been waiting now for a month to be allowed to take the 5th chair.
Will we vote on October 31?
It is anyone's guess. But the odds look lower and lower.
The opposition might go and vote. Then again it might not.
Now it has become quite fashionable to announce that one will not go and vote on October 31. Usually people that propose this form of "resistance" are of little importance and little following. And they all forget that Chavez laughs at abstention. One vote is enough for him and niceties and legalities are not very high in his concerns. They all also forgot that on April 1999 abstention was promoted, abstention won but we still got a new unworkable constitution. They NEVER learn.
But do we see anyone actively organizing street protest? Civil disobedience on the 31? Offering concrete solutions to force the CNE stop cheating? No. But we do see some serious candidates dropping out of the race! Speeding up the possible suicide of the opposition in some areas! Can anyone imagine Juan Barreto as Caracas Mayor at Large? I am ready to bet that a significant portion of chavistas are not pleased by that idea!!!!! But he will become the mayor as the only other candidate left is Claudio Fermin and he is almost as despised as Barreto is.
The hand of AD?
It is difficult to understand really what is going on within the opposition. Obviously it has been unable to reach unity and this is in large part due to Accion Democratica, AD. It has stopped long ago moderating its tone on its opposition rivals, sometimes attacking them as hard or harder than the chavista candidate! Yet it seems that AD strategy is partially successful. Its insistence on running and forgetting about the fraud in spite of the Alvarez report is paying off in that the rest of the opposition is not only further demoralized but is even abandoning Alvarez in spite of his brilliant work. Most candidates that have dropped off so far are not from AD. Is that the price that AD is charging the rest of the opposition to accept a minimum of unity and rejoin the fight against Chavez?
Now let's be clear about AD motives here. Whatever the game of AD is, it is very simple: what is in here for me? AD still has no project, no plan, no nothing. Just the remains of a structure that it hopes to save for future days. And for that it needs a few town halls, a couple of states, and no other opposition. AD has decided that Chavez will be there until 2012 not because he is so great but because AD is bereft of any charismatic leader. They know that the only way to create a viable presidential candidate for them is to create a successful mayor or AD governor. A populist one of course as AD cannot rule in any other fashion. This will take at least 4 years, until 2009. Thus their strategy:
deal with Chavez, perhaps secretly now, perhaps openly at some point. They know he will need a façade opposition to present to the world and AD has no problem becoming such ectoplasm.
eliminate the other opposition, or at least the one that does not think like AD or does not want to subordinate itself to AD. That way the country will have to turn again toward AD as the only option to remove Chavez.
For some reason AD thinks that it can survive the chavista onslaught. Though the Alvarez report predicts that AD would lose at least half of its town halls due to the manipulated Electoral Registry. And the Monagas governor, the only one from AD, has been savagely attacked by Chavez the other day. Apparently if AD was hoping to become the chavista designated opposition, it might be in for a rude awakening. AD is making a big mistake: to think that they are still in 1998 and that Chavez eventually will come around and deal like your regular pol. They are in for a rude awakening, and dragging us to hell in the process.
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(1) Added later. Lula da Silva was fined for supporting Sao Paulo mayor using some public project as a background. The fine was 18, 000 USD. At the rate that Chavez is using public works and programs to support his candidates, if he were Brazil president he would be owing millions and millions in fines. Now that I think of it, maybe that is the reason some leaders support Chavez: they admire his ability to get away with murder.
(2) The latest rumor on the burnt Eastern Tower is that some explosion started the fire. And some other explosion in the lower floors might have taken place later. And also that the "situation" center for the fraud might have been located in one of the burnt floors. Conspiracy theorists are of course all out in force. It is very easy to speculate that the Alvarez report triggered the need to burn everything down. Thus the explosions. We'll see, maybe, because one thing is certain, investigations will be sloppy and we will never know the truth, as we will never know the truth on any event that is an embarassment for Chavez, such as Montesinos, April 11, the guerilla penetration, the financial allocations, the real output of PDVSA and on, and on.
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
Picture of aerial "rescue" of the East Parque Central Tower
A faithful reader sends me this pic that I post obligingly.
This one was taken when "finally" ten hours or more after the fire started the army helicopters came to throw water on top. I am not too sure if that strategy at this point was any useful, but at least it was about time the firemen were helped. Somepeople said that actually the helicopters were activating the blaze further!!!! Maybe, but at this late time we were more worried about the tower falling WTC style than anything else.
One thing is clear, had the sprinkler system worked, had there been water in the reservoirs of the building, had the safety exit not been obstructed, it is rather likely that damage woudl have been contained. After all, it took at least 10 hours to reach this stage in the disaster.
Venezuela, the country of ifs!
News from the Venezuelan country side
I have been for the past two days in the boondocks. No Internet, the weakest of occasional cel phone signal. But always a radio supporting Chavez.
In fact, during the 4 hours drive Sunday I could verify that no matter what Chavez says about the media opposing him, you can hear his weekly broadcast of "alo presidente" everywhere, in every nook of the road, sometimes even the only signal available!. Worried about the burning tower I listened to the radio when usually I favor the hours of silence that driving offers me. Besides trying to get news, I tried to hear whether Chavez was as upset about the Eastern Tower burn as I was. I did not look that it was the case. Instead he spent the best of his more than 6 hours show (he has become such an anchor man!) campaigning. That means distributing grants and free bees, scolding his ministers in public to show that it is not his fault (though he never worries about why he makes such lousy appointments...) and supporting the sagging fortunes of Margarita governor which might be the only one of the chavista governors that might lose in spite of the now all but official fraud. Only an occasional phone call to the interior minister to check things out before going back to yet another string of empty promises and reminiscences of his life and readings. We even got a mini dissertation on Victor Hugo Les Miserables....
Today I am back in Caracas and the news have been pouring. We had of course the usual suspects trying to put the blame of Sunday disaster on whomever they could as long as they deflected it from them. But the most loathsome of the lot seems to have been the CSB director, Cabezas, who all but accused the firemen to have set the fire. Even Mari Pili Hernandez, notorious pro Chavez journalist, had a hard time not to choke on the CSB director outrageous words when she interviewed him (I had the radio in the boondocks:-).
If Chavez did care the least on the Sunday disaster, he would have already accepted the "resignation" of Cabezas. But his modern version of "Nero in front of Rome burning" will remain for the annals of low moments in chavismo history. I mean, I am not expecting Chavez to hold the firemen ladder, but gee, in civilized countries the CSB director would have "offered" his resignation by now, no?
Other news. The political scene is moving a lot as resignations of candidates running occur while the CNE rectors fight publicly and ask their colleagues to be removed from office. This seem all very complex and I will wait some before writing on it.
And to conclude, I drove in front of the burnt tower today and I must confess that in spite of my seething rage since Sunday I got strangely and surprisingly very touched. Whether we liked it or not, it had become one of our landmarks and the city will not be the same. Knowing that it will be probably years until they deal with it, we will have for years a painful reminder of all our Venezuelan weaknesses and vices..... Without the consolation that it might have been a lesson for us...
In fact, during the 4 hours drive Sunday I could verify that no matter what Chavez says about the media opposing him, you can hear his weekly broadcast of "alo presidente" everywhere, in every nook of the road, sometimes even the only signal available!. Worried about the burning tower I listened to the radio when usually I favor the hours of silence that driving offers me. Besides trying to get news, I tried to hear whether Chavez was as upset about the Eastern Tower burn as I was. I did not look that it was the case. Instead he spent the best of his more than 6 hours show (he has become such an anchor man!) campaigning. That means distributing grants and free bees, scolding his ministers in public to show that it is not his fault (though he never worries about why he makes such lousy appointments...) and supporting the sagging fortunes of Margarita governor which might be the only one of the chavista governors that might lose in spite of the now all but official fraud. Only an occasional phone call to the interior minister to check things out before going back to yet another string of empty promises and reminiscences of his life and readings. We even got a mini dissertation on Victor Hugo Les Miserables....
Today I am back in Caracas and the news have been pouring. We had of course the usual suspects trying to put the blame of Sunday disaster on whomever they could as long as they deflected it from them. But the most loathsome of the lot seems to have been the CSB director, Cabezas, who all but accused the firemen to have set the fire. Even Mari Pili Hernandez, notorious pro Chavez journalist, had a hard time not to choke on the CSB director outrageous words when she interviewed him (I had the radio in the boondocks:-).
If Chavez did care the least on the Sunday disaster, he would have already accepted the "resignation" of Cabezas. But his modern version of "Nero in front of Rome burning" will remain for the annals of low moments in chavismo history. I mean, I am not expecting Chavez to hold the firemen ladder, but gee, in civilized countries the CSB director would have "offered" his resignation by now, no?
Other news. The political scene is moving a lot as resignations of candidates running occur while the CNE rectors fight publicly and ask their colleagues to be removed from office. This seem all very complex and I will wait some before writing on it.
And to conclude, I drove in front of the burnt tower today and I must confess that in spite of my seething rage since Sunday I got strangely and surprisingly very touched. Whether we liked it or not, it had become one of our landmarks and the city will not be the same. Knowing that it will be probably years until they deal with it, we will have for years a painful reminder of all our Venezuelan weaknesses and vices..... Without the consolation that it might have been a lesson for us...
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