Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Burning soldiers again

Last year, in March 2004, started the infamous case of the Fort Mara soldiers who were burnt live in the confinement cell. To date we still do not know who started that fire, nor how was it started. However, General Uson who in a talk show said that the "accident" was started with a flame thrower was promptly sent to jail for "speaking against the honor of the Army" or such nonsense. A few months later the MD who attended the soldiers and could not save them were accused of medical malpractice. I have not heard from them lately so I do not know whether they are on trial. There was also two cases involving direct military brutality still without serious investigation: a drown soldier and the torture to death of an indigent by some soldiers. In all fairness at least the case of an AD supporter shot by a military seems to have advanced in court: apparently there are too many witnesses to stop that investigation.

The names of the victims have become irrelevant as the only ones that land in jail are those that denounce military brutality and deal with its effects; they are the only ones that stand to run into trouble with the justice be them generals, medical doctors who treat the victims or the journalists who try to inquire. Shooting the messenger, in a time tested method for short term cover up.

Monday night we heard again of two soldiers who "accidentally" burnt themselves. Again? How could that be possible? How could confinement cells have not been replaced or at least made fire proof after Fort Mara one year ago?

Amazingly, the disgust of the whole thing rattling a few within the presidential entourage, a backbencher from the president's party has called for suppressing the system of confinement cells in place. But I have not heard much diligence from those bakbenchers to pursue previous abuses. Is it just an initiative to try to force the army to apply more discrete ways of "punishment"?

Another disturbing development is a much more subdued media/press reporting the event, although this time there is some hint that indeed it might have been accidental. Or at least this blogger dearly hopes so. But one cannot fail to observe the effects of the "gag" law which had the dead line for some of its provisions reached this week and thus put into effect. It is detrimental to small kids to hear how soldiers are roasted live so the news must gag themselves. I hope that this is the reason for the subdued reporting and not fear since we all know that the real aim fo the law is to limit daytime criticism of governmental actions.

But I am not afraid and I will report, again, that Venezuela is in fact a hidden military regime where some sectors of the armed forces do as they please. Be them cashing at the bank or abusing human rights. We have read that story everywhere through our continent troubled history, but since it is done now "in the name of the people" some are only too willing to turn a blind eye to such acts. But History also shows us that sooner or later all is revealed and those who did not raise their voices find in turn the finger pointing at them. Look at Chile where the role of the judicial system was finally exposed a few weeks ago. Look at Eastern Europe slowly digging through its communist graves after having been digging through its fascists graves. Sooner or later a similar report will be written for Venezuela. Of this I am sure.

Tuesday, March 08, 2005

Chavez's bolivarian riot breeding! Love child Evo expected in Bolivia!

OK, I could not resist a little bit of yellow journalism but for once it does illustrate quite well some of the behind the scenes actions.

Tonight I was listening to Adolfo Salgueiro in "Alo Ciudadano" now the main opposition talk show in Venezuela, even if considerably subdued courtesy of the new "gag" law and civil code. Adolfo Salgueiro, an old operative of previous Venezuelan administrations, was a guest to comment on the recent Bolivian events now that President Mesa has tended his resignation . Salguiero said something quite stunning. I am quoting from memory the dialogue between AS and El Ciudadano talk show host EC:

AS: we all know that Evo Morales is coming regularly to Venezuela to pick up a money suitcase[noted cocalero leader, runner up to Bolivia presidential election, trying to make it to the top]

EC: do you have evidence?

AS: we all know how those things works: it is not done in front of a notary, no direct evidence is left around. That is the way it was always done.

EC: you did that in the past?

AS: yes, of course, but in our case we were helping democratic movements and it was implied in the 1961 constitution. We succeeded.

And a minute later:

AS: Evo continuous visits are of course to take orders and advice from Chavez and bring pocket money back.

EC: but do you have proof of it?

AS: no, but so is lacking [communication minister] Izarra when he accuses [the US of wanting to kill Chavez]. If he can do it so can I. Lo que es igual no es trampa [What is equal is not cheating, flavor lost in translation]

Now what is extraordinary is the looseness at which all of this is said: nobody doubts that Chavez is supporting Evo Morales in any which way he can and gag law and all, people say it aloud.

But there is good evidence anyway. Sunday before last Chavez had his "Alo Presidente" in Yaracuy, my home state. And Evo Morales was a guest. Evo in Yaracuy? Not to mention that the unfortunate words of Chavez that Sunday were sufficient to start a diplomatic row between Bolivia and Venezuela.

Well, it turns out as it was exposed in Alo Ciudadano tonight that the script of the show is looking strangely a lot like what we are seeing in Bolivia this week as President Meza has handed in his resignation in a political gambit of high stakes (that particular broadcast of Alo Presidente is not on line yet but Evo Morales is already figuring in the web site).

The crisis has been building for quite a while and it seems that showdown time has arrived. So the only question is why is Chavez having such an interest in Bolivia? I can count already 5 reasons:

1- Bolivia is named for Simon Bolivar and of course the Bolivarian Revolution led by Chavez must claim Bolivia not only A.S.A.P., but the first one of the bolivarian countries (bolivarian used in the proper sense as the countries that were liberated by Simon Bolivar from Spain, and not the cheapened sense given to it by Chavez).

2- Bolivia is poor and crisis ridden. Venezuelan oil dollars can get there much more bang for the buck than anywhere else in Latin America.

3- Bolivia is wrought with self doubt over its gas reserves, Chavez can pose as a connoisseur.

4- Bolivia is the most Native American country in South America and thus a prime target for the bolivarian pseudo revolution propaganda needs. Showing cute hat wearing Bolivian Native women chant pro Chavez slogans must the material of sweet dreams for Chavez.

5- And my favorite.Fidel Castro miserably failed with Che Guevara in Bolivia a few decades ago. Though some think that Castro was only too happy to see el Che fail there. For Chavez to bring Bolivia to Havana would be a double coup, not only it would be a nice present for grandpa Castro, but Chavez would prove to be the heir Castro needs as he would outdo Castro. Whether Castro would tolerate Chavez to outdo him is a matter that would be interesting to observe; but I digress.

That Bolivia has huge social problems that predate even the rapaciousness of the Patiño familiy does not deserve discussion. That these problems are at the root of today's crisis is obvious to all. And thus, by the same token, it is idle to speculate as to whether Chavez is financing Evo Morales.

Sunday, March 06, 2005

Who rules Venezuela? The MERCAL set up as an example

This is not an idle question contrary to what people might think. When one reads that the Venezuelan president is happily traveling around the world speaking at many an "organized" rally he can find and that he is even provided with an allowance to buy foreign debt, one cannot help but think that he is like those rich scions of the old European Aristocracy who were sent to the "grand tour" of Europe, mainly Italy where the partying was good. Some "daddy" at home of course takes care of the unpleasantness of providing funds to pay the bills of the good times. In today's case, a devaluation of the currency by 12% did the trick nicely.

Yes, that is right, Venezuelan citizens lost last Thursday 12% of their assets in a single day by what is the most unjust tax, a devaluation provoked by irresponsible government spending. Or as some say "plain robbery". And Chavez was nowhere around to take the blame of something that would have caused a European government to fall and call for early elections.

So, if one knows that Chavez is president one can at least wonder about how things are run. As it happens the devaluation event coincided with the announcement that the subsidized food distribution system was seeking to raise its prices. The back and forth on this was quite revealing. But some background first.

MERCAL was founded shortly after the strike of 2002-2003. It was one of the very first misiones launched by Chavez when he realized that he would have to face elections and that he better had something to show. It was also a political move as Chavez realized that he needed a way to be able to at least distribute food to his supporters in case of crisis, not to mention as some people claim, that it was also a way to prepare the road to an eventual ticket rationing by teaching people to stand in long lines at the official stores.

Through 2003 the inauguration of respectable sized Mercals was a regular feature of Alo Presidente shows. Critics on their shoddy goods and lack of choice was also a regular feature of the opposition discourse. A second wave followed as the mini Mercals were opened. There some Chavez follower got some help to set a small in house Mercal in the barrio (s/he had to provide the place to get a license, or should I write franchise?). But in time and with the public monies spigot wide open the distribution system of Mercal became quite a big affair, run by the military, and widely rumored to become fast a source of corruption. It must be reminded to the reader that such scheme of subsidized food for the masses has existed in previous administrations of Venezuela, what changes this time is the scope.

Now the big problem with Mercal is that it is an unfair competitor. When a private distribution wants to import any food stuff it must ask for CADIVI dollars. If it does not get them and want to import the goods anyway it must go to the street dollar adding a 30% to its costs. Then when the goods arrive in Venezuela, the importer must pay heavy import taxes to which a sales tax is added. Mercal imports are exempt of all of these financial costs save shipping. And this is unfair as half of the food sold at Mercal is imported. So the obvious first question I why not allow tax exempt food import for all?

Now we can look at what concerns us today: how the running of Mercal is reflective of the new Venezuela. One thing that must be kept in mind is that the Army runs the show, and the Army has been taking heavy at the cash register since Chavez wants to make sure it remains faithful to him (again, nothing new in LatAm practices).

It all starts when on Thursday 3 El Universal published the declaration of Jorge Rodriguez the head of Mercal as to the intentions of increasing their prices, by less that the inflation prediction of 15%. The tough luck of course is that his printed words came out a few hours before the devaluation of 12 % was announced, killing of course any hope that Mercal will held price increases this year at less than 15%.

Now, I am no wizard but should not Rodriguez have consulted with someone at the finance ministry before announcing a less than 15% price increase? When devaluation was widely expected since last November? Don’t these guys talk among themselves? We are not talking shopkeepers here; we are talking the soldier who manages what has become the biggest distribution system of food in Venezuela, heavily subsidized by the finance ministry!

But it gets better. The head of CASA, the organization who imports the goods sold at Mercal announced on Friday, I assume to mitigate the negative effect of the devaluation announcement, that he was loaded with cash overseas in a New York Bank and that he would be able to import stuff as he pleased without increasing prices. This of course was disingenuous at best since eventually he would have to replace these dollars and the 12% price increase will be reflected sooner or later. I wonder if he thinks we are stupid or if he is not that bright himself.

The side effect was speedy, the National Assembly in a moment of strange lucidity was launching an investigation into the management of CASA and Mercal and the announcement of the millions stashed away in a New York bank were incorporated to the long lists of possible irregularities to be investigated. Reminder: with CADIVI it is forbidden to hold dollars outside of Venezuela unless deposited there before 2003.

One interesting detail is that the huge expansion of Mercal, if not its success is now here to haunt the government. If it is true that almost half of Venezuelans shop at one time or another in Mercal, any increase in prices will be blamed directly on the government officials and not the private shopkeepers as it was the case all along Venezuelan history. It certainly did not help that Jorge Rodriguez of Mercal (not to be confused with the one of the Cosa Nostra Electoral) hurriedly announced Friday that the council of ministers had to decide whether prices would increase. Which means that he put the decision on a traveling Chavez. Considering that there are two elections this year, the only question is which will be the size of the subsidy that will disappear in the sands of Mercal.

And so is Venezuela run daily, a web of contradictions managed by incompetent people, while the boss is away wasting precious money as long as any adulator is crossing his path.

Carlos Ortega, the fallen angel

It is with some nostalgia that I assist to the fall of the once powerful leader who with a simple declaration could launch half a million people in the streets of Caracas, without buses, without booze, without gasoline in the cars.

But contrary to what might have been the first impression of the reader, it is not nostalgia for those days or Carlos Ortega as a leader. I never cared much for him nor for his side-kick Carlos Fernandez, or even Carmona in days now long gone. No, the nostalgia if for those days when the opposition was aware of the evil in front of us. The evil has now met us and the opposition is silent. Saturday there was a small rally to support political prisoners in general while the social column of Roland Carreño in El Nacional was telling us how the visit this week of Pavarotti in his farewell tour gathered at the Teresa Carreño chavistas and escualidos dressed to the hilt and with no cacerolazo. Times have changed. What has not changed is that I could not afford a ticket to go and hear Pavarotti while plenty of chavista officials seem to be able to do so now.

But back to Ortega's plight. His arrest at least demonstrated that he preferred to run in Caracas streets, even play at a local casino rather than take the safer routes of exile. I am not too sure if it was bravery or foolishness, but they did not get anything interesting from the search at his refuge. Wigs, magazines, hair dye, stuff. No weapons, no material to print samizdat, nothing even to suggest a significant role in the opposition leadership. This one indeed seems to have dropped him after having only too willingly followed him in now remote days. Do they think that "forgetting" Ortega will erase their connection with him? Even Ortega own party, Accion Democratica (AD), is paying lip service to defend him (though I assume that they will at least pick the tab for the lawyers that defend Ortega).

But that ignorance of Ortega should not hide the fact that he is very much a political prisoner. And the way the Chavez justice deals with him will be quite telling. Already the indecent gloating of Jesse "James" Chacon would have garnered a dismissal in a normal administration. Quite a cowardly act towards a fallen hero, a gloating not even seen when a famous Iraqi was captured by its enemies. And that Iraqi certainly had committed more crimes than Ortega.

One thing is sure, there will be a trial and Ortega will be in the slammer for quite a while. Chavez never reached trial for the many people killed by his 1992 adventure. Yet for political reasons Caldera released him saying that he should not be prosecuted for his crimes, without actually pardoning him. Chavez has a golden opportunity in front of him if he wants to show that he means reconciliation. He could "forgive" Ortega the way he was "forgiven" himself. My bet is that he will no take that opportunity.

And what about the opposition leadership? The rather intense apathy that followed Ortega's capture should give it pause. But even more, should make them realize that as long as the opposition leadership does not fess up to its mistakes its followers will not go back to street protest or the ballot box. Just as they did not hit the street for Ortega this time.

Saturday, March 05, 2005

Bloggers are hot stuff

I have already used that title in the past but today it is worth using it again.

You might remember that great post from Miguel on Friday February 25 where it was established that the dismal crowds at Tarek rallies were enhanced by the adequate use of Photoshop. Well, finally a newspaper caught on. I am not sure whether they read Miguel's post or if they eventually found out but Tal Cual finally posted exactly what Miguel posted. One week later, but better later than never.



Bloggers ARE hot stuff, even in Venezuela.

Friday, March 04, 2005

Another day, another devaluation

The most interesting thing about today's devaluation is that it was treated as just another item in the news. Certainly front page material, but shared front page. Have we become so used to the financial calamity who are those who rule us that a February/ March devaluation has become something to be expected like some sort of perverse national holiday? At any rate, today the official currency rate went up by 12%, from 1920 to 2150. Amusingly some in the government calculated it on a 2150 basis obtaining *only* a 10.7% devaluation. Again, chavismo thinks we are stupid. Meanwhile the parallel dollar remained at 2700, thank you very much!

So there we are, after what chavismo claims was a banner year for the economy, an inflation *allegedly* lower, foreign reserves high, etc, and we go down 12% on the US dollar, itself down from the Euro. That is already bad enough but what makes it worse is to see government officials stating that inflation will be marginally affected. Again, they think we are stupid.

Yesterday Chavez was in Uruguay and today in India. He does not even think that a devaluation is important enough to justify his presence in Venezuela. In fact he is already preparing the next devaluation. In Uruguay he announced that he would trade beef and wheat for oil. The Uruguayans must be ecstatic as they will always have beef and wheat whereas one day we will run out of oil. As an inauguration present to Tabare Vazquez, one might be forgiven to think so, Uruguay will have 20% of the anti CNN TV service Chavez wants to create. Chavez also announced Venezuela will be buying some of Argentina's bad debt. And let's not forget all the oil sent to Castro, an amount staggering enough that it allows Castro shamelessly to proclaim that Cuba is doing better on its own. Now, do we have a vende patria here? Who is the one betraying the interests of the Venezuelan people for his own selfish aggrandizement in Uruguay?

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A best wishes note to Marta Colomina

Cesar Miguel Rondon dedicated his program tonight to Marta Colomina who will be leaving her morning show held for 9 years at Televen. As a fierce and precise critic of the current bunch of incompetent thugs that made out with our public treasury she certainly has garnered enough animosity from chavismo. The new "gag law" and the undue pressure publicly admitted by Televen personnel have forced her exit. This is an empty victory as Marta Colomina morning show was not her best work in my opinion. I find her best at the radio (that she will keep for the time being) or as a writer.

Thus she rejoins Napoleon Bravo as the second important victim of the reduced freedom of expression in Venezuela. Probably moderate Rondon will become now undesirable as he is the last heavy weight left with El Ciudadano at Globovision.

Marta Colomina was quite clear. She will not cease her battle for democracy. She will not hide. She will denounce all the abuses that reach her desk. She also warned us that a new restrictive regulation of the radio is in the works and that the press is next. I agree with her, such is the logic of authoritarian regimes. She also forgot to add the Internet but I know from a good source that she does little besides e-mail and she probably does not know what blogs are. I would not be surprised to see her soon opening her own blog.

Thursday, March 03, 2005

Announcement on the comment section

The comment section is veering out of control: civilized debate is now near impossible. I have tried to discuss with some. Recently I have even cut messages from 4 people though only one has noticed so far. This by itself seems to indicate that what people are enjoying is the free for all insult mode in spite of my entreaties to do otherwise.

What to do?

First, this is my blog and this is my vision of what a comment section should be about:

1) a place to add information that I have missed, and I have on occasion incorporated such suggestions. .

2) point out factual mistakes (corrections also have been made on occasion)

3) agree or disagree with me, and if disagree explain so with at least a moderate effort to either bring new facts that I might have overlooked or faults in my logical reasoning. In other words I expect people to respect my work by doing their home work on the topic. I do spend enough time doing research and writing and I expect people to respect this

3) stimulate derivative discussions when appropriate, but discussions still related to the main idea , or at least to a previous posts.

4) breaking new events as I am blessed with informed and diligent readers.

5) and some occasional chit chat as commenters get to know each other, as much as one can get to know each other on line

In other words, very little of these things are happening lately. So it is time to set a few rules. The forbidden things first:

1) bring arguments, grudges from other forums to this one. It is OK to say "In Miguel's comments so and so said that this happened there" It is NOT OK to write "In Miguel's blog so and so called me names". I really do not care, really do not want to know what happens elsewhere. Deal with it over there, and if you think it is truly relevant write me confidentially on that respect.

2) insult other folks in the comment section. This of course does not need explanation

3) troll. This is more subjective I admit. But if some people consider that someone is trolling I will take it into consideration (and if I think it is the case I might act directly, it is my blog after all)

4) hog bandwith (writing more than 2 posts in a row). If you have that much to say, open your own blog. I will put a link to it in link section, promised! If you need more than 2 consecutive posts to expose an idea then you have a problem organizing your thoughts. I am willing to make an exception when a poster writes an obviously interesting story, a well crafted argument, and when that is not a recurrent thing. In such obvious cases it does not matter if there are 10 comment posts in a row.

People who do not respect this will have messages first erased, then get a warning if I have access to their address, and if they have no mail I will ban them outright. But I will not use the comment section to write "so and so is now banned", I will not make it public as there is no need to add further embarrassment to someone or creating a martyr for those who want to become one. If you find yourself banned you will be able to write to me and ask me why and we might work out something.

I have observed long ago that the number of comments do not bear a direct relation with the ratings of the blog. Thus there is no interest for me to have a post with 150 comments when most of those are bickering. So there is no material advantage for me to have a free for all comment section. I write for pleasure and to help and reading my comment section should also be an intellectual pleasure and able to help people.

I hope that folks will understand this and will also understand that ideas are not censored, irrelevant behavior will.

I trust this will be enough to make the comment section again a nice place for people to exchange information and opinions.

Followers