Friday, August 11, 2006

Chavez shakes his cabinet

This blogger has been writing for quite a while that the radicalization of chavismo through 2005 and 2006 obeyed mostly to the need of Chavez to place himself as the heir of a visibly ailing Castro. There would be some democratic pretense until, at the very late, the "renewal" of December 2006; but then on Venezuela would become an all out authoritarian regime. Even the new name of "socialsit republic" and other constitutional changes are openly floated around.

The script not only is happening as predicted, but it is even speeding up. Coming back from his journey to radical lands where Chavez has cast his lot against democracy, he is met with the disease of Castro (or death?). There is no time to waste and radicalization of the regime must start without even waiting for the symbolic election of December. Chavez must assume the leadership of the radical left in the Americas before Castro "officially" dies. This is a ncessary step for him to assume a leadership of sorts in the world since his pals (such as Ahminadejad, Lukashenko or the Korean weirdo) are even less palatable than he is.

This is all quite well explained in this Veneconomy editorial of yesterday, posted below, which I cannot help to be tickled pink as it confirms so many of the things I have been writing about.

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On returning from his wanderings in the eastern part of the world – where he forged ties with some of the most extremist regimes of the day- and after receiving the news of the “retirement” of his mentor Fidel Castro, President Hugo Chávez once again gave his cabinet a shaking.

This time the shakeup denotes a speeding up in the radicalization of the “revolutionary” process of which he is the leader, an intensification that many analysts expected would not occur until after December 3, 2006.

This putting the foot down on the process’ accelerator can be explained on two fronts:
The first front with an eye on the situation abroad: The absence of Castro, regardless of whether it’s temporary or permanent, demands that Chávez make show of his strengths to his Latin American peers, the Empire, and his new Eastern allies, prove to them that he, as the continent’s most radical radical, is the logical heir to the Caribbean dictator. This is an essential move for achieving the Bolivarian dream of a multipolar world with Chávez at its head.

This explains the appointment of Nicolás Maduro as the Republic’s Foreign Minister, a chess piece who definitely has zero credentials for a job as a diplomat, but, in compensation for this “weakness,” has a long track record as a radical soldier and died-in-the-wool supporter of the process. Apart from that, he is fully identified with the anti-Semitism that the Venezuelan Head of State is now hoisting before the world. So, Maduro will be an ideal, obedient spokesman prepared to attack anyone he is ordered to attack by the Commander-in-Chief without diplomatic scruples of any kind.

The second is the domestic front: The President believes he will come out the winner from the presidential elections in December, so, as he sees it, there is no longer any point in waiting to move his pieces and fine tune his strategy for consolidating his 21st socialism at home. There is no longer any need to dissemble.

As part of this offensive we have the appointment to the Ministry of Basic Industries and Mining of the diehard radical trade unionist, former member of the Bolivarian Workers Force and, until now, chief of the MVR bench in the National Assembly, José Khan. This revolutionary fits in perfectly with plan to collectivize currently being implementing in Guayana. Khan, like Maduro, can be perceived as a man who made it up from the bottom and be counted on to take the message of social horizontality implicit in the process.

It remains to be seen who will replace Maduro as Parliamentary Chairman, where the task will surely be to focus on pushing through approval of the laws they still need to complete the Bolivarian legal web, among them the Antitrust Law, which will control the NGOs, the National Police Law, and the Education Law.

Also pending are the new appointments in ministries and government agencies that will more clearly define the flight plan for the radicalization of his process.

Chavez and the Holocaust

Today in some event shown through Globovision Chavez again called Israel a fascist state and affirmed that there is a Holocaust taking place in Southern Lebanon.

I will pass on discussing what is going on between Israel and its neighbors and focus on the fact that Chavez is consistently using words such as Holocaust, Fascism, Genocide, in conjunction to whatever his enemies do (in the case of Israel, which is not an enemy of Chavez the reason is to hit the main ally of Israel, the US, the perceived real enemy of Chavez).

Since Chavez is an ignorant of the real meaning of historical events one can conceive that the first 2-3 events where he used such words so lightly were a mere moment of irrationality and ignorance due to the length of his fiery speeches. But we cannot afford to entertain this benevolent hypothesis anymore: there is now a pattern. We are not even allowed to hope that his entourage is so scared of Chavez that they have not dared tell him that certain words are not to be played with. The vice president Jose Vicente Rangel knows better and he has had plenty of time to explain the subtleties to his boss. The trivialization of words such as Holocaust is a deliberate ploy. Soon we might even hear “Israel is holocausting Southern Lebanon”, becoming a verb as the ultimate descent into banality.

I have been trying to fool myself for too long but no more: such abusive use of hallowed words is on purpose. A goal is sought. I have come up with an explanation that I do not like at all.

For better or for worse the West has been building its current civilization over the ashes of the Holocaust. Civilizations start with a conjunction of events. The one that preceded us started with the French and Industrial Revolutions. It ended somewhere around WW1 and the Great Depression. Our present civilization is built on the WW2 consequences, namely the Holocaust and Hiroshima. At least the moral and ethical basis of our civilization, from Japan to Venezuela, from Iceland to South Africa, comes from these events. All civil rights movements, all democratic beliefs, all economical ideas from the democratic lefts and rights were founded on the ideal that such as thing as the Holocaust or Hiroshima mass murders should be avoided at all costs. We got the UN. Most abolished death penalty. We got tribunals for crimes against the humanity. We got many more things, more or less successful but we got them.

Aragon reveals very well these 1945 revelations as our civilization litmus test in a poem to Robert Desnos murdered by the Holocaust and not even a Jew:

Là-bas où le destin de notre siècle saigne
(Yonder, where the fate of our century bleeds)

But our present civilization like all civilizations is challenged. What we built in the 50ies and triumphed with the fall of the Berlin Wall, perhaps opening unrealistic expectations, is now challenged. The excluded are the challengers. The excluded are those who either do not think they can access to our civilization, or were deliberately set apart, or do not want to join our civilization for their own motivations, thus self excluding themselves. Chavez is in this last crowd, as the autocrats and their followers who today seem to enjoy a strange revival from the Baikal to the Lake of Maracaibo, passing through Pyongyang and Teheran.

What do these challengers want? A world of certainties and not a world of collective resolve married to individual responsibility for our actions. We are in a world where science and rationality allied with empathy are supposed to solve all ills and allow all of us to make the right choices on our own and thus join society and its benefits. We are thus forced to establish a world of diversity where many solutions must coexist. However these challengers aspire to uniformity, at least within their own realms of power and action. They aspire to world of conformism even if their rallying cries are against the conformism of McDonald and Disney. Be they fundamentalists of any stripe or plainly angry folks, they all fall easily prey to a limited elite that promises them a world with certitudes.

And a world of certitudes requires the end of doubt. By force, through repression if necessary. Repression of diversity means exactly that, repression, death and deliberate murder.

That is why the sacred founding words of Holocaust and Hiroshima must be made banal so what was tried in the past can be tried again, without raising annoying outrage. That is why Chavez makes banal the Holocaust. That is why Iran makes banal nuclear energy. They have a plan and we are not a part of it.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Rosales is the unity candidate: the campaign starts!

No real surprise there as to the name, though a slight surprise at the opposition finally managing to put its act together. I am rather happy to say that this blog had long ago stated that the strength of the Rosales support was underestimated by the Caracas folks that think they control politics in Venezuela. I mean of course “La Republica del Este” for its Eastern heavily anti Chavez suburbs. But eventually reality imposed itself: you could not just dismiss the governor of Venezuela’s biggest state, and THE one that resisted the chavista onslaught in 2004. His stature had not stopped increasing among Venezuelan outside of Caracas, and became nearly unstoppable after December 2005 when he is the one that managed best the “abstention” crisis of that December when he was widely expected to carry almost all of the Zulia seats against all initial odds.

Even the long term valiant effort of Borges to try to reach out of the central region was not enough. He did indeed made sure that PJ became a “national party” but it is still a party with some strength in only about half a dozen states. Rosales without a formal party already was leading in the Western half of the country. Teodoro Petkoff sort of suspected that when he went early to talk to Rosales before he even launched his own presidential bid. But Teodoro could not finish; though he was smart enough to sense where the wind was coming from and withdrew first, launching the inevitable love fest of sorts when all the other candidates withdrew, where Sumate cancelled the primaries, where Manuel Rosales was proclaimed and made his first official (and decent if populist) campaign speech. The unity picture on the right, with Borges, Rosales and Petkoff.

Chavismo was at the same time surprised but ready. Surprised because it was rather obvious that they did not expect that the opposition would unite, because they were probably really counting on a division. Indeed what better argument for Chavez as he cheats his way back to office to say that “but there were several candidates, did you not see them?”. But chavismo was ready anyway. Already tonight at 7 PM the VTV show “Dando y Dando” was nothing but a vicious attack on Rosales, at tax payer expense. Not even the “moderator” pretended any form of objectivity. We also got a “cadena” at 8 PM where for a good ten minutes we got a travelogue of Chavez last trip in that it was just an assemblage of happy pictures of loving African babies and hugs with all the leaders he visited during 2 weeks. This completed with at least 6 "major achievements of the revolution" in Venezuela. My first advice to the Rosales team is to record VTV 24/7 and all cadenas and do continuous reports of all the violations of the electoral code that Chavez is already doing. Start counting also the very few minutes that the state media will grant to Rosales as opposed to the hours and hours that Chavez will literally steal through cadenas and legal and forced governmental advertisements. You will need to document all of that to the international observers when in October the situation becomes unbearable and you might want to start street protests and withdrawal threats. Trust me on that one, chavismo is barely starting its abuses.

I really have not that much to say about Rosales. He is the typical provincial politician that made good. That is, he started on the lowest echelons of AD in the then remote “Sur del Lago” area, the humid and swampy southern side of Zulia. But he climbed steadily until he reached the Maracaibo mayor office, the second one in the country. When the chavismo tidewave came he was smart enough to leave AD and form his own political party, UNT, Un Nuevo Tiempo (a new time). He must have been a rather successful mayor as he was easily elected governor of Zulia when Chavez old buddy Arias Cardenas preferred to run for president and lost. Still, this unassuming provincial politician was not given much credit even if his 2000 victory was stronger than anyone had expected at the height of Chavez REAL popularity. In fact, the conjunction of Arias and Rosales was enough for Chavez to lose Zulia when he was taking every other state. At the time one would have thought that it was the Arias factor but now it seems that the star of Rosales was already rising.

Rosales went on to become a constructive opposition leader. At first he tried to build bridges with Caracas which, if anything, reflects well on his desire to fulfill his pledge to Zulia voters before promoting his own personal ambition. Some people even considered the UNT as a junior party of the Chavez majority. But by 2002 he was in the leading edge of the opposition, being awkwardly filmed, rather embarrassed, signing the infamous Carmona decree (I personally remember as I watched TV that April 12 whether he was going to sign so awkward was his demeanor). Since then Chavez has marked him. But it did not help because in spite of the biggest attack machine that Chavez designed he could not unseat Rosales in 2004.

Because this is a fact: for all its threats against the Carmona decree signatories, the legality is on such shaky grounds that we are still waiting for the massive trial promised. The reason is simple, if such trial is ever held chavismo will also have to take a stand in the trial and chavismo has as much to fear from a close investigation of April 2002 than the opposition. How else can we explain that 4 years have passed and nothing has been done except a few indictments and citations? Rosales being recently one of the targets by the way: we will see if the sold out judiciary dares to jail him during the campaign.

I would not dismiss Rosales easily if I were chavismo (I do not think they do considering what I already saw today, Carmona decree pictures included)). He might be an old fashioned populist politician but he holds several big cards from the start.

1) His reelection in Zulia shows that he has achieved something there, that people like him, that he reached them. No matter what dirt Chavez tries to throw at him (VTV is ripe of cheap adds about dissatisfied Zulianos), Rosales has at least as much to show for than Chavez in Venezuela, all proportions guarded.

2) Rosales cannot be tied to Caracas old politics. Rosales has never held a Caracas office. All his career is in Zulia state and all the huge rallies he has called were in Zulia, not in Caracas. In addition he bailed out of AD early enough and has been careful to surrender himself with local pols (then again he might be provincial enough to be wary of anyone not from Zulia). These days Chavez looks everyday more like just another Caracas distant pol for us in the provinces.

3) He has a rather plain speaking tone. A nice respite from the Chavez exhausting speech. After 8 years of permanent confrontation a candidate that promises good management, to bring back the bucks sent away, in a more measured tone, might have a surprising effect.

4) His face his poke marked, he is short, he looks almost as mestizo as Chavez and certainly not white, not Caracas type at all. Think province lawyer. Playing race and elite with him will not go far. Frijolito 3 will not work well with Rosales.

But Rosales has some big problems too. He will need to find fast the right confrontational tone with the CNE. He will need to solidify the opposition unity as an electoral alliance with a minimal but concrete government plan. He will need to steady himself against the Chavez formidable vulgarity onslaught. He will need to watch out for betrayal maneuvers from people such as AD or some hard right folks that might be the ones behind some other disturbing candidacies. He will need to find money. He will have barely three months to set up a support group to make sure that elections are not stolen from him. As I had written months ago: Rosales should have been a unity candidate late May, at the latest. Two full months have been wasted in intrigues.

Thus is Rosales, an accidental candidate, the one that nobody expected, the one that probably never thought he would even leave the “Sur del Lago”. Yet today he carries on his shoulders all the weight to save Venezuelan democracy. I have seen him once. A couple of years ago I was at the Eurobuilding of Caracas on a business diner. This was in the sad post recall election days. Rosales was then trying to organize the regional campaign for the elections which saw the loss of all but 2 states to Chavez. Rosales was with a small group of 2-3 people, standing up at the bar area but not drinking, waiting for someone. Nobody was stopping to say hi. Nobody was staring. He had a certain “had been look” as all the opposition leaders had these days. The conversation was serious, no one was smiling. As a blogger I was tempted to go and introduce myself but I was on business and I could not drop my party. I had a rather favorable impression of the guy: non assuming, quiet, serious, slightly undaunted to be in such a public place without any escort, not even an obvious assistant, taking himself his cell phone calls (he was the governor of the main Venezuelan state, an assistant would have been expected!). Today the sycophantic tide is turning his way. I hope, I even think that his provincial nature will protect him from them. All that he has he owes it apparently to himself alone: he owes nothing politically. He seems of the no nonsense type. He might be the man after all. We will see.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Hugo Chávez rompe con Israel

Esta es una traducción mía de una carta previa publicada aquí.

This is the translation into Spanish from a previous letter published here. I got a lot of feed back from this letter and I thought a translation might be worth the time.

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Querido amigo Israelí que lea este blog


El titulo de este texto significa exactamente lo que significa: es Hugo Chávez que esta rompiendo con el pueblo de Israel, no es Venezuela. El pueblo de Venezuela es mucho mas sabio que esto. O tal vez ignorante según se entienda. Pero todos los venezolanos de buena fe, de buen nombre, de buena voluntad, no están rompiendo con Israel, o el Líbano, o Palestina, o Egipto.

Mira, los venezolanos de buena voluntad saben que la situación del Medio Oriente es muy complicada, y sabemos que no tenemos ningún asunto pendiente allí, exceptuando tratar de ayudar de cualquier manera en que podamos, sin parcialidad alguna, en alcanzar la paz de una u otra manera. Al igual que Israel no tiene ningún asunto en inmiscuirse en nuestros problemas fronterizos con Colombia en cuanto a las FARC cruzando a su antojo.

Mira, Venezuela es un hermoso mosaico de gente. Tenemos muchos inmigrantes de todas las partes del Medio Oriente. Pero también tenemos muchos judíos que huyeron los horrores del nazismo, o los horrores de las diversas formas de intolerancia europeas. Sabemos que juntos la podemos pasar todos bien, blancos y negros, indios y mestizos, judíos y musulmanes, católicos y evangélicos, comunistas y demócratas. Eso si, asta que Hugo Chávez fue electo presidente en 1998 y empezó a crear divisiones que eran alienígenas a nuestra dócil cultura tropical.

Desde su elección la raza es una cuestión. Guerra social inútil es una cuestión. Derechos humanos son una cuestión. Y nada por bien. Ahora antisemitismo se esta transformando en una cuestión. Este blog ha reportado a cada vez que pudo como el creciente antisemitismo se esta convirtiendo en una cuestión en estos días. Pero no me mires solamente a mi, léete la columna de Milagros Socorro del jueves 3 de agosto en El Nacional donde ella se enfrenta la misma publicidad horrorosa que apareció en el Nacional la otra semana. Sus palabras en cuanto a como nuestro hermoso país esta siendo desgarrado por el odio y por los vicios de unos pocos son mas que elocuentes.

Ahora en su megalomanía Chávez ha volteado su mirada hacia el medio oriente donde quiere ser uno de los jugadores. Te puedo asegurar, querido lector Israelí, o inclusive querido lector del Medio Oriente, que esto es una decisión única de Chávez y su camarilla. A nosotros, como pueblo, nunca se nos ha consultado sobre lo que debería ser la política de Venezuela en el medio oriente. Y os puedo asegurar que nunca seremos consultados sobre este asunto por Chávez. De hecho, el ha dejado de consultar con quien sea sobre lo que sea excepto tal vez el próximo cadáver de Castro.

También os puedo asegurar una cosa: Chávez no sabe mucho del Medio Oriente y su muy complicada historia. Tampoco se preocupa mucho por ustedes. Miren, lo único que quiere es fregar a los EE.UU. de cualquier manera que pueda, aunque esto signifique asociarse con el régimen Iraní de fanáticos e intolerantes Ayatollahs que no tienen problema alguno in someter a las mujeres a toda clase de restricciones de ciudadanía de segunda categoría, ahorcar jóvenes gays, martirizar los de la fe Baahi, financiar cualquier organismo terrorista pro Chiíta y cualquier cosa fuera del la civilización que uno se pueda imaginar. De hecho es casi imposible imaginar un país tan opuesto a los valores venezolanos de libertad y vida libre como lo es el régimen Iraní. Es por eso que es tan reprensible que Chávez no se haya percatado que la única cosa que Ahmadinejad no ha dicho todavía es “el buen judío es el judío muerto”. Nunca en nuestra historia hemos tenido un presidente que haya apoyado a un país cuyo objetivo es la eliminación de otro país.

Si pueden leer el Español les voy a recomendar un articulo sobre la forma en que la noticia fue reportada en Venezuela. Primero el uso de una conmemoración de un evento en nuestra gesta de independencia de 1806 para anunciar el retiro del embajador en Israel. Divertido porque Venezuela solo tenia un "chargé d'affaires" allí. Pero Chávez siempre tiene que ser exagerado y el chargé paso a embajador por unos pocos segundos antes de que lo saquen de todas maneras. Después durante el mismo acto protocolar decidió cambiar una fecha patria al moverla del 12 de marzo al 3 de agosto. Así de fácil, porque decidió reescribir la historia de Venezuela de un amanera que lo satisfaga mas, sin miramientos a lo que en verdad paso en dicha fecha. Ven, el es así, cambiando nombres, fechas, sitios, a gusto, como cualquier dictador comunista o fascista. Todo por supuesto rodeado por sus generales en disfraz completo.

Es importante que entiendan que Chávez hace tiempo que se le dejo de considerar como alguien sensato. Nadie que sea tan obsesionado por su gloria, su seguridad, nadie tan cegado por su odio al os EE.UU puede mantenerse sano. Venezuela es ahora un régimen controlado por los militares con alguien de desquiciado en las riendas. Ustedes de todos los pueblos saben de ese tipo de personaje. Por lo tanto no se enfaden con le pueblo Venezolano, mantengan presente que cualquier acto de mala conseja que Venezuela haga en el Medio Oriente proviene de la mente febril de Chávez únicamente. Estamos tratando de controlarlo lo mejor que podamos pero el tiene demasiado dinero y demasiado cobardes amorales que lo rodean y que se vuelven ricos, tanto en casa como en otros países. Esto es lo que somos en verdad, un pueblo amigable, no la muchedumbre llena de odio que el quisiera que ustedes creen que el representa.

Nicolas Maduro becomes the new Venezuelan Foreign Minister

This is quite a piece of news, of the astounding sort. For me, the shock is the incredible realization that Nicolas Maduro, a general failure in life has managed to reach two of the highest offices in the country strictly on his servility merits to El Supremo, a.k.a. Hugo Chavez. But also, as a strange relief of sorts, we are left to admire how a totalitarian regime sets itself in place.

Nicolas Maduro

There is really nothing positive to write about him. He is a failed union leader, from the Caracas subway system if memory serves me well. He never did anything smart in his life, and since the press got him as a source of news in 1998, there is nothing I can point that he did that showed creativity, originality or even hard work. He gained weight and got known for his escapades to visit his guru in India, first class ticket of course, at tax payer expense one may presume since he never bothered showing the receipts and even for an assemblyman paycheck, first class tickets to India is quite a bundle.

However he is a semi gifted opportunist and in a political movement full of nullities carried by Chavez own charisma (plus the general management of Cuban advisers) that was a big advantage. He understood very, very early that the way to go was to accept anything that Chavez will do or order. He was handicapped at first because he comes from labor, from the civilian sector that Chavez wanted to destroy the most at the start of his rule. It took Chavez quite a while to trust Maduro. To gain the trust Maduro did several things. One was to live maritally with Cilia Flores, a talibanic pasionara of limited intellect but vociferating abilities and overly dyed red hair. She also was one of the few lawyers that volunteered to help Chavez in 1992. Reports of their trips to the US for shopping sprees, kids on tag, have been numerous.

The second thing Maduro did was to choose wisely his revolutionary career. I suppose that we can give him credit for his self knowledge on his limited managerial skills. That would explain his choice of a parliamentary career, never trying to go elsewhere. Not for him to exert in running for governor, mayor or indicating a wish to work in the executive branch. Maduro knew that for someone lazy, with little interest in day to day management, a seat at the newly formed national assembly was the way to go, in particular with a regime that primed the executive more and more. A sinecure so to speak.

The third thing Maduro did was to organize the “civilian” group within chavismo. In this meaning, “civilian group” meant organizing non military folks that were willing to be as devoted to Chavez, no questions asked, as the military that Chavez so obviously favored. Which admittedly was not much hard work either as all were only too willing to imitate Maduro. Leadership by example if you please. He kept gaining weight.

But Maduro always failed to shine, failed to reach higher positions. This started to change some when he sat patiently at the negotiating table in 2003 to nail the conditions for a recall election. We know what happened, but at least Chavez grateful that his delegates took the heat for him started rewarding them. Maduro abilities for stone walling (due to his poor intellect contrary to what people might believe) were certainly handy for an increasingly authoritarian regime who did not want to discuss any parcel of power.

Maduro started moving up and for the last year of the assembly he became the speaker of the house. By then of course the national assembly had become a redoubt of chavismo where the main objective was to stall the remaining opposition, something that Maduro had shown interest for and some ability in doing. In all fairness under the baton of Maduro things did function better in the assembly in that the opposition was less able to start discussion on law projects as a parliament is supposed to do. Chavez appreciated the lowered noise from the National Assembly and the passing of several controversial laws that one had to pinch one's nose to vote for. Maduro surely noted who did pinch his or her own nose and those ones did not get the nod to seek a reelection.

Of course after the assembly became monochromatic in 2005 Maduro was confirmed as speaker and speedily made the National Assembly into the Notary Public of the executive, a place where law projects are sent to be speedily voted, no questions asked. Maduro was now a star of the regime, always starved for people who do as told, without any discussion.

Nicolas Maduro Foreign Minister?

I mean, how can such a non-dialogue person, someone that cannot even speak proper Spanish, someone that probably knows little geography, less history and has no obvious ability in understanding complex international issues be named Foreign Minister?

Well, again his only known qualities: stonewalling and straight face when saying utter nonsense.

It seems that the latest excursion of Chavez has brought some lessons home. With the semi death of Castro (and his imminent death anytime soon no matter what) Chavez has decided to stop any pretense and play his hand on the foreign stage. What this means for Venezuela I reserve for a future post, limiting myself to sate the obvious, that the December election are more compromised than ever, that the international project of Chavez not only cannot contemplate ever losing power, but that the opposition must be shown as not being able to get even a 20% of the vote, the real meaning of the “10 millones por el buche” as we can now fully understand. “Unanimity” of the Venezuelan people is a must for the trials to come, even if such unanimity must be gained on abstention and gross electoral cheating..

The thing is that Chavez has cast his lot once and for all. He is bidding for Castro’s mantle, he is bidding for the leadership of the anti US world crusade, he has declared open support for all regimes severely to totally lacking in democratic value and he must himself degrade the embers of his own democracy to show his new allies his sincerity. The days of Mr. Nice, of trying to pretend to negotiate treaties and stuff are over. He does not need a foreign minister anymore: he needs a parrot like Perez Roque in Cuba, someone that will say the darnedest things with a straight face and limit himself to repeat them as often as needed. He needs someone who will justify what is about to happen in Venezuela without batting an eye, without opening himself to any shred of discussion. Chavez needs a messenger that can only read the script and is absolutely unable to take any weird initiative.

Maduro will be perfect: the anti foreign secretary, the anti negotiator.

The comic moment

But as usual, we, of the peanut gallery, are rewarded with telling moments.

I cannot conceive of the speaker of any real great democratic parliament relinquishing what is the second highest office in any country (when not the highest) with the glee that Maduro did today. In democratic countries, reaching the leadership of the parliament is the crowning of a career, it is the second most important position after the prime minister or the president, it is the one that maybe has the densest net of contacts, or pork barrel appropriations, of grateful subjects. You leave such a position because you become vice president, prime minister, president, governor of your bigger state, or something like that. Foreign Minister is a step down for you who even control indirectly the workings of the foreign committee of YOUR parliament! No treaty or agreement will be signed without you, no ambassador can be named or received without your knowledge and agreement, no foreign potentate will visit your country without paying respects, if anything by chatting with you a few minutes at some state dinner. And all presidents and prime ministers will at some point fear you when you threaten them with the schedule of the parliamentary debate. Only your electors can run you away: the president can do little against you.

That Maduro leaves this seat so easily means that either Chavez is in big trouble and needs his help or because the chair of the National Assembly is obviously now a totally boring and ceremonial position. After you look at the career of Maduro above, only the second explanation can make sense. If anyone still thought that the monochromatic National Assembly of Venezuela had any license, they needed only to look at the joy of Maduro leaving his job to be set straight. Today will not be counted as the end of Venezuelan democracy (this boat as sailed long ago) but it certainly will be considered as one of the most symbolic moments of its demise.

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

The story gets told: anti-Semitism and press restrictions

This deliberately weird title comes from one observation that I am making: the foreign excursions of Chavez visiting all sorts of dictators before visiting democratic countries might not be benefiting Chavez as much as he hopes for. In particular it is forcing some countries to have a deeper look at what is going on inside Venezuela. In this Chavez is not helped at all by his big mouth and poor choice of symbols.

The main thing that has surfaced lately is the perception of a growing anti-Semitism within Venezuela. This blogger has reported on that long ago and got quite a lot of flack for it. But I am being vindicated as the days pass. No the question is not how anti Semitic Chavez is but how much is he willing to act on it.

For example in the notes coming from Israel newspapers on the withdrawal of the Israeli ambassador in Venezuela we can read in the Jerusalem Post:
Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev told The Associated Press. "We have a problem with the leadership in Caracas that hugs the Iranian president who calls for the annihilation of Israel."
Haaretz observes that the Jewish community of Venezuela is starting to react more strongly on the latent anti Semitism within chavismo:
The Confederation of Israelite Associations of Venezuela, or CAIV in Spanish, denounced "anti-Semitic statements" in government-backed media and the "arbitrary bias of representatives of the government ... toward one of the sides of the conflict."
Haaretz duly notes the “efforts to banalize the Holocaust” in Chavez speech, and notes that a few months ago the CAIV leadership tried to excuse another anti Semitic utterance of Chavez even as a majority of the Jewish population in Venezuela seems to have been against the directive of the CAIV bureau (something Haaretz might want o inquire within?).

That CAIV announcement appeared in El Universal last Friday but it is not on line. Thus I had to take the picture on the right (click to enlarge). I have circled in red the most pertinent parts. In this text the Jewish Confederation of Venezuela does the following: deplores the situation in the Middle East showing concern for the suffering of ALL the people (even though they endores Israel as would be expected, but at least they show concern for all victims which is not the case of many a Venezuelan authority); complains bitterly about the partiality shown by the Venezuelan government be it at the national level or local level; complains about anti Semitic comments from the state media under the cover of "anti sionism". That is it, the CAIV has officially accused the Venezuelan government of anti semitism. We are waiting for a reply, not coming so far.

Coincidentally today Phil Gunson published a piece on the status of the freedom of expression in Venezuela. If at the start he replays the usual complaints of chavistas that the media is in the hands of the opposition he ends the article explaining how this has completely changed, that it is now Chavez who has the big advantage, with less checks from the opposition than he had when the media was supposedly 95% in the hands of the opposition. In fact two sentences are worth quoting:
The Consejo Nacional Electoral (national electoral authority / CNE), has decided to place no special restrictions either on the Sunday programme [Alo Presidente]or the cadenas during the 2006 election campaign, giving the president a massive propaganda advantage.
Thus we have a president running for election that will not need to pay for a huge, even tremendous media blitz while the opposition will have to pay dearly a very limited advertisement slot. But more worrying is this other piece:
But a recent judicial order, banning certain types of press coverage of a sensitive political case, is just one sign that such guarantees are by no means watertight.

With many other areas of national life already subject to strict government control, journalists in Venezuela – local and foreign – are, understandably, waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Indeed, more and more self censorship is observed and this blogger cannot help but notice that many topics are now lightly covered by the press, if covered at all; while follow up of embarrassing situations for the government is sorely missing in some cases. Coming back to the start of this post, what I find personally an outrage is that Chavez gets progressively more and more of his anti Semitism out in the open (amen to his followers expressing this more and more) while there seems to be a reluctance of the press to follow up on that. So far the only strong article I have seen outside of this blog is from Milagros Socorro (while Ms. Socorro and myself deplore the bombings of Lebanon and remind people that Venezuela is a multi ethnic country, including many Arab/Muslims among our immigrants and that we cannot take sides; this was even picked up by Big Pharaoh blog who might not know enough about Venezuela to spell the name correctly, but did get the message nevertheless, loud an clear). Fortunately overseas the word spreads as one can read form the Monday Op.Ed in the Washington Post by Jackson Diehl. At least we can be sure that the Washington Post is clear on Chavez anti semitism, that his words are now closely followed, in particular in Teheran.

I will remind folks in Venezuela the words associated with Pastor Niemoller, most appropriate words now that folks have forgotten, conveniently, about those fired at PDVSA in 2003; or those that are on the Tascon list; or those who dared to oppose Chavez strongly and that all applaud to only leave them rot in jail after trumped trials; or those who have preferred the roads of exile as they could not safely exert their journalism. All now close their eyes, ears and mouths as they are trying to get some of the money Chavez throws around, but the Piper gets paid someday.

First they came for the Communists,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I wasn’t a Communist.
Then they came for the Jews,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I wasn’t a Jew.
Then they came for the Catholics,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I was a Protestant.
Then they came for me,
and by that time there was no one
left to speak up for me.

Monday, August 07, 2006

Refining political apartheid: the Albornoz list

Readers of this page do remember the many times I have discussed the infamous Tascon list and its direct application in the Maisanta program (all necessary links on the right side column of this blog, and a main link here). As it always happens in such type of regimes, once the initial break of ethics is accomplished, then there is no more restraint in adding insult to injury. The latest addition is now the "Albornoz List” which will refine the Maisanta program by indicating who is actively supporting the opposition by giving money to Sumate (and in the future to any NGO that even dares to raise its voice against governmental abuses).

As a brief reminder: the Maisanta program lists almost all Venezuelans according to their ID card number and their electoral participation. The list also includes recipients of state sponsored social “misiones”, whether the elector signed one of the divers recall election instruments (pro of contra Chavez) and some other parameters that the state sees fit to include. People that appear in the Maisanta list are rated from patriot (pro Chavez) to opposition with certain gradations in between. Now, through the courtesy of the national banking system the Maisanta list will include those who gave money to Sumate, allowing the creation, one can imagine, of a new category: active complot makers against the fatherland, which will mean that they will be the opposition members that have to be punished first and foremost.

How did that happen?

It all started when infamous sleazy assemblyman Albornoz decided to investigate the accounts of Sumate. Nothing really wrong here, if the National Assembly thinks that Sumate is a terrorist organization it is fair to check out whether its funding come from legit sources, or from drug cartels, George Bush or Osama himself. In a rather surprising show of efficiency Trino Alcides Diaz, the bank superintendent, brought in a very few hours all the bank movements made in favor of any of the Sumate accounts over the last few years. I say “surprising” because, as far as I know, Trino Alcides Diaz does not show such an effectiveness in getting banking records when the case under investigation are for corruption within the government or request from the DEA as to money laundering. Se for example the slow start in the investigation of the 45 million USD "missing" from FOGADE...

But so far I can deal with it: the amounts investigated are for movements of more than 4.5 million bolivares which is roughly 2000 US dollars. I find this number already low because if I were to launder illicit gains I doubt I would use such small amounts, but what do I know? At any rate, I suspect that this number comes from some international standard and if it is used for drug money cover up, why not for use it for Sumate cover up. With this parameter according to Sudeban, the Diaz directed organization, Sumate received over 4 years 2300 million bolivares, roughly 1.2 million USD depending on how you account for the exchange rate through the years.

Unfortunately as it is always the case chavismo does not know the meaning of the words “enough is enough”. Now Trino Alcides Diaz has accepted the request to search for ANY financial deposit made in favor of Sumate for the last few years. And a copy of these banking movements with the names of the involved parties will be delivered to the Albornoz commission.

The implications are very easy for anyone with half a brain to get. The name of the little grandmother who cave 50 USD to Sumate during the gathering of the signatures required to call for the recall election in 2004, a constitutional right it must be strongly stressed, will now be in the hands of Albornoz. After the Maisanta list, what do you think will happen? The entry under the name of the little grand mother in the Maisanta list will be amended and she will become an even greater enemy of the state, to be taken action upon whenever it is convenient.

In other words, any person that makes any financial contribution to any NGO in Venezuela that has even a remote risk to become an adversary of Chavez risks to have his or her name added to the apartheid list of people who are politically segregated in Venezuela.

No further comments are needed; the reader is smart enough to grasp the gravity of the situation when the public cannot even give money to noteworthy causes such as COFAVIC since at any time the government might crack down on them as they keep reporting violations of Human Rights in Venezuela. Trino Alcides Diaz, a modern day tropical Quisling, will be only too happy to provide the names.

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notes:
1) a day by day partial account in English can be found here.

2) the term "la lista Albornoz" has been coined by Sumate director Alejandro Plaz.

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