The ultimate conspiracy theory

With spelling mistakes and all. And these are the people that will be voting in the US next election.
Mama mia!


-The end-

It is Saturday, let's relax some: survey results, awards and updating links

This past week we have seen at play a coup against democracy, or rather what was left of it. I had to write a lot of hard posts so I think that we all deserve to discuss something else today to take our minds away. Since I am in no mood to write anything fluffy, too concerned about Venezuela's future, I will instead worry about a few things left unfinished.

Results on the survey about surveys

A couple few weeks ago I asked readers to take a survey to give their opinion about making surveys a regular feature. The first question was about whether folks liked the previous surveys. All but one of you liked them, to various degree for sure but you liked them. Yet only 9% of you would like regular surveys. In fact 7% would like no more surveys ever. 50% thought that one survey every couple of months would be enough. So that is that for surveys in this blog, a rare one only when events require one.

As to what kind of survey would readers want to see. The clearer reply was that 65% of you did not want fluff surveys, no surprise there. Nor did you care much about best/worst type of surveys. No ratings, thus, on anything in this page. Surveys on issues and politics are the only ones that could muster the interest of 80% of those who replied.

All of these goes a great length to explain the result on question 3, Are you a survey junkie? 59% of you replied "I do not do surveys, I did yours because I like you and I felt it was important." And by the way 69% of you were not surprised by the results. We seem to know each other, don't we?

It was thus a good thing that this survey only had 6 questions, and even though I did not get to 100 allowed answers which in a way confirmed even more that surveys should be a rare and special occasion: survey fatigue sets in quick. In other words no need for me to pay for the subscription to the survey site, any site that allows me a single question with unlimited respondents will be quite enough for the rare surveys that we might want to do in the future. Suggestions of such sites are welcome.

The sixth question was the US vote at this point, among regular readers. The image below is eloquent: McCain wins among the US readers but Obama wins among the non US readers. The result for VN&V is a dead heat, with a surprising percentage of did not reply, do not care and undecided. We thus confirm the result that if Germany were the 51 state Obama could already be sworn in.

Updating the links section

Finally, for the first time since 2007, I have made a major update of the link section, erasing the deadwood and including many new links. I have done that thinking on the coming election and thus I have added many links in Spanish. After all at least half of you have admitted reading enough Spanish, and many of the local issues might be covered by some of the links posted. I am not completely done yet so if anyone of you wants to suggest a site that should be included, please let me know as I will do another visit in the next days and then there will be no more editing until, well, who knows....

Because I have the old Blogger template I have a hard time finding a translation tool that works. Any recommendations? The Google gadgets failed miserably.

Awards

Because of the many things that kept us preoccupied, I forgot to acknowledge that I got two other awards. I am thus acknowledging them now but I am also taking the opportunity to to comment on awards in general.

Apparently there has been a fashionable trend to create all sorts of awards in the Spanish Blogosphere. Which is fine, why not? But many of these require that in turn you pass along the same award to several other people. As a scientist I was immediately bothered by that because if you know anything about geometric progression even if a fraction of these new awardees in turn award the prize, soon enough we will all be having awards. The risk is to be torned between ridicule and mild arrogance.

Fortunately the two I mention below were not in this category which is why I accept them, and even feel honored as it shows that an English language blog really can cross the barrier language without a decent translating tool.

Marta Colmenares sends me an award that she transmitted to all blogs she deems "dedicated to the defense of Liberty and Democracy". I am certainly grateful for this, the more so that her blog is usually on top of the Blogalaxia rating system, for the Venezuela section, and as she has been a frequent target of pro Chavez hackers.

The other award came in May from an Argentina site, Argenlibre, who apparently has learned the hard way the toxic influence that Chavez has had over the Kirchners. It is not useless to remind folks that in February 2004 Nestor was still receiving Venezuelan opposition when this one was beaten, gassed and killed by pro Chavez Nazional Guard. Then Chavez started buying bad Argentina debt and we know what came of it.


-The end-

What now in Venezuela? How do you fight against a "legal" coup d'etat?

Last week Chavez advanced significantly in his desire to perpetuate his rule. He started on the road to the direct control of the banking sector by nationalizing the third largest bank. He published a set of 26 decree laws that forced many of the measures that were rejected by referendum last year. These included among others controlling better the army, diminishing private property rights, controlling the flow of goods within the country and ways to bypass local administrations. Namely, controlling the economy and the people who would control it. And then to finish it up, he banned from politics some of his main adversaries. These last two actions were all upheld by the Constitutional Court of Venezuela even though any enlightened amateur would agree that the constitution was violated in both cases.

The first action to be ruled out is to appeal to the rule of law. Indeed, what tribunal could give you a fair hearing when the constitutional court is now so openly subservient to Chavez? One should not be surprised by the current Constitutional Hall. The court president, to begin with, was fired twice during her previous "career" as a judge. She is the head of the tribunal today because Chavez put her there. On her own, in a normal legal system, Luisa Morales would not even make it to clerk of the high court. She owes it all to him and after been caught voting NO last December, she will have no qualm violating the constitution lest Chavez fires her. Chavez has mastered the art to chose the crooks he needs to do his dirty job, and the ways to blackmail them.

Thus I am putting in a few paragraphs what the opposition should/could/ought to do according to the time table and the urgency.

Build a platform

The first rule to be able to challenge Chavez is to have somewhere to do it from. True, the latest of Chavez measures only prove that he is scared and thus tries to protect himself at any cost, now violating openly the constitution. But no matter how weak and scared he might be, he still has the checkbook and all the institutions that matter. Thus the opposition must put aside ASAP its internal divisions, complete its coalition forming process and campaign as hard as it can, on foot, reaching to the people, not only on TV. It needs to win as many state houses and town halls as it can win. Every one now counts and everyone must be fought for, even in chavista territory as the opposition now ALSO needs to win a majority of the votes.

On the plus side Chavez gave the opposition a powerful set of themes for its campaign. Three months ago I was already suggesting that the opposition should also run on the need to restore the rule of law in addition on how to fix potholes. Now they are forced to do so. On the negative side, Chavez is playing the open confrontation, wishing perhaps to create enough disorder to cancel the elections if his polls are just too bad. The opposition faces the challenge to be strong in the street but not too strong such as not offering an excuse for Chavez to crackdown or annul.

Prepare for November 23

Cheating will take place this time, I can assure you. The opposition must be working hard, really hard, to have witnesses in ALL electoral districts. A single school left unattended is enough to steal from the opposition a town hall in a close election. Also, just as it happened on the night of December 2 2007, some within chavismo will be unwilling to accept defeat (if it loses, of course). That December night it was Chavez who was defeated so not too many chavistas were eager to hit the streets. But November 23 late, a few chavistas running for election would love to hear Chavez announcing that he does not recognize their defeat. This time it is not enough to have witnesses at every voting station, but info should reach oppo headquarters as fast as it reaches the CNE, and processed faster than at the CNE.

Prepare for November 24

Now, just as the campaign gets really started, the opposition must also think about what it will do on November 24 and thereafter. Whichever governors will be sworn in they will find themselves with few resources left and a General of the Army that will block them on many of their actions. It is thus of utmost importance to start planning the strategy to recover the people's rights against the centralization of the state, artfully hidden behind security reasons through the XXI century army missi dominici, and the communal councils, unable to do much without "advice" from Caracas. How to do that? It will depend in part on the results of November 23 and whether Chavez will sort of accept them, albeit temporarily.

The "softer way", waiting for better times and a further weakening of Chavez.

If the results are medium good, the opposition will have to settle for a referendum on the Enabling Law. According to article 74 of the 1999 constitution, we only need 10 % of the registered voters to call an abrogatory referendum on any law we do not like. In fact, for decree laws we only require 5% of the electoral body to sign up!!!! Just with the Tascon list victims already marked for life we get these numbers!!! We can win that one because as it was the case in December 2007, we will not threaten Chavez role directly and thus his hard core supporters will not be as mobilized to vote to defend their man. The opposition can even use it in its campaign strategy, to shore it up some. People such a Goicochea are already promoting this.

It has the advantage of offering a peaceful solution, up to a point anyway. A chastised Chavez might be quiet for a few months until we move on to the next battle, the 2010 legislative elections. It also gives enough time for the new local official to demonstrate that they are better at solving problems than chavismo and thus improve the image of the opposition, allowing for new leaders to gain national projection.

We can dream, can we not?

The "harsher way", confronting evil head on.

There are two degrees here. One is as above plus a recall election on the National Assembly. We move directly into a major political battle that will take all of 2009. Then again, do we have much of a choice after the 26 laws? Success there probably will force an early ouster of Chavez and thus many chavista light might not follow. This strategy requires a rather solid opposition victory, say 10 states.

The next degree is all of the above combined with application of article 350 of the constitution, legal civil disobedience based on the government violating the constitution. Even normally staid Borges delicately hinted at it. A implication of this strategy is to call for a constitutional assembly, the only way to get rid of Ruffian and Morales along Chavez.

This strategy might become the only recourse if Chavez decides to go against the popular will and to become a dictator once and for all. In fact, Chavez feeling lost might deliberately chose that strategy, to provoke the population in some sort of uprising that would enter him as a martyr in history books. He is a coward but he is also in love enough with himself to chose such a thing at this point.

Then all bets are off.

-The end-

Power Grab in Venezuela

[erratum] It is not me saying it, it is the Washington Post in today's editorial. Do not miss it, as complete in a few paragraphs as it gets.

The last line is just great:
His power grab is a backhanded tribute to the strength of Venezuela's democratic opposition -- proof that this tribune of the people actually fears them.

But there is an interesting detail for which I will ask the collaboration of the readers of this blog. Read the comments on this editorial and you will read a collection of PSF old and tired clichés. I mean, really old and really tired. You must know that there is concerted effort by the Venezuelan government to discredit the WaPo, all started by a letter from Izarrita (a.k.a. Andres Izarra the on and off communications minister). If you read the comments you will quickly realize this, by the lack of originality, the repetitive tone, etc... No point of course in rebutting these people, do not waste a minute of your precious time. However if you could drop a simple note of support it would be great (you need to register, sorry, but it is for a good cause and the Post does not send spam). The note could be simply "Excellent editorial! Great to see that the Washington Post sees clearly the situation in Venezuela." Let's see if this blog by itself can place as many positive notes as the negatives Izarrita is trying to send.

And in case you wondered who are the people besides the comment handles, one of them is probably Greg Wilpert at Venezuelanalysis. His descent into pro Chavez sycophancy is making him a strange version of a XXI century Tokyo Rose. It is amazing that someone would put his pen so easily at the service of justifying the disqualification of folks for political motives. He goes as far as writing that Primero Justicia was a political party in 1998 when it was just an NGO, becoming a party two years later, I believe. He also forgets, conveniently, that the real accusation was to use some budget money to pay employees instead of something else of the budget, due to Chavez not sending the funds owed to Chacao. But Chavez does fund shifting all the time and Ruffian is blind to it, hence Wilpert accomplice silence?. That Leopoldo Lopez did not profit himself of a single penny does not seem to bother Greg Wilpert either. Then again the Tascon list does not seem to have deprived him of sleep in its days.

[erratum] I put the wrong link for the editorial. Sorry. It is corrected now.

-The end-

Bush and Chavez judicial tactics

In a moment or rare evil serendipity we find an editorial of the New York Times about the judicial fraud operated at Guantanamo and the judicial fraud that is operating on the same lines in the Simonovis et al. trial in Venezuela.

In short, the US set special courts in Guantanamo who are operating on the premise of "guilty as ordered", including possible release of verdicts according to the electoral timetable. I am not saying it it, it comes with the unusual lengthy NYT editorial. Read it.

In Venezuela the trial of Vivas, Simonovis and Forero has been suspended yesterday once again on the flimsiest of excuses. The prosecution which apparently has failed to make its case is now demanding, who knows for how many weeks, the revision of EVERY piece in the overwhelming dossier. Overwhelming by its bulk, not by its proofs otherwise the accused would have been condemned long ago. The state prosecution calls "grave" error that in a given piece an insignificant comment from lawyer X was not duly written, justifying their need to review all. As if this would be crucial for the case as it is already clear that neither the weapons held by the accused are linked to the deaths on trial, nor it has been possible to demonstrate that they gave such orders. It is eerily like what was done by Clodosvaldo Ruffian in the banning because some administrative forms were not followed. See, in the bolivarian revolution it is OK to steal gazillions as long as you fill up the adequate paperwork. And I am not starting on when it is OK to kill....

For those late in the game, Forero et al., are the only folks on trial for the events of 2002. Yes, that is right, even though there is no proof against them, which is why that the trial has lasted nearly three years with them being detained in conditions that violate their human rights. On the other hands the guys who were shown gun in hands shooting the crowd and the cops from the privileged and safe position of a high bridge are running around free, as hero of the revolution, though in their personal lives they have proven long ago that they are scum.

So, why yet a new delay? For electoral reasons of course. Since they cannot prove their guilt, the chavista prosecutors will wait for after the election to finally allow an innocent verdict, or at least a very mild one. Just as the Bush administration made all its efforts to make sure that Gitmo delivers guilty verdicts when appropriate.

-The end-

It takes a judicial coup to wake up the Venezuelan opposition

I was planning to write as a title of a follow up post last night "Ooops! Time to do a plan B!". A little bit dispirited that what I had expected had finally arrived, I sort of wanted to revive recent grudges such as the one I have against Leopoldo in refusing to accept the need for a plan B. Indeed, I could not believe that Leopoldo for some obscure reason hoped to have his "inhabilitacion" voided. Tonight I have to admit the possibility that Leopoldo all along knew he would get screwed and that in fact he was preparing his day after reply.

And boy, how did he reply today!

First a sizable group of people gathered at Plaza Brion and decided to march to the Ombudsman office, you know, that woman that only defends chavismo and is trying to get a right to reply at El Nacional because she was told that she is a useless hypocrite, and why. As far as I know neither was the gathering nor the march that followed authorized. Sure enough a demeasured police show of force took place in front of a pacific march, and they never reached the Defensoria. But the political goal was achieved nevertheless as Leopoldo completed his transformation form a country club scion to a bona fide martyr, right words and all (although as usual he tends to speak way too long, but that is a common disease in Venezuelan politicians).

Leopoldo went further than he has ever gone calling Chavez a coward for hiding behind the TSJ to make sure he could not win in Caracas. And he was convincing at that showing who is the lesser man. He also did not forget to attack the enabling law result. Thus today Leopoldo went from ex-candidate to martyr and to putative director of a nation wide campaign against the regime. Was that his "por ahora" moment? Is Leopoldo the hero we had sought for so long? And more importantly will he rise to the challenge and opportunity that opened up for him today?

But that was not all. Primero Justicia woke up in ways that I would not have thought possible 24 hours ago. First, on the practical side, Capriles the candidate for Miranda State made a point to say that the new 26 laws will limit the actions of the new governors and basically wreck decentralization. So you know that at least in Miranda this will be a major campaign point and in Miranda it might work quite well for the opposition which is already in a favorable position. But it got way better when the leader of PJ, Borges, called for a boycott and more against the 26 new laws. He did not call for violence, of course, but he seemed quite determined and we can expect initiatives coming soon from that quarter.

Of course the student movement, slowly reviving, probably got the final shot of its treatment. Today they also launched strong declarations, accompanied Leopoldo and all in all seem to look ready to go to the battle, 2007 style.

I would be willing to bet money that if a quick flash poll was taken one week ago and tomorrow, chavismo must have dropped 5 points at the very least.

And yet, those were not only the good points gained by the Venezuelan opposition. Early this week, as some in the oppo kept up their useless and dangerous inner fights while the TSJ made its judicial coup yesterday, the opposition announced that it had reached agreement in 17 states and 154 town halls, just as inscriptions started. OK, so it is not enough yet, but two weeks ago many, including yours truly, were wondering whether we would reach at least 15 unity candidates. Though we can probably add two more as of yesterday since now the front runner in Anzoategui is out and Miranda will go to Capriles as the lone candidate. There is Caracas, Yaracuy, Bolivar, Tachira and Merida to settle, three of them very close to be settled. Paradoxically chavismo and opposition are about at the same stage of their "unity" progress as actually chavismo went down in 4 states where it is now official there will be two candidates.

And yet there is still more good news. The Mercosur is in town to investigate the human right violations of the TSJ yesterday. All the threats of the National Assembly and even today the foreign ministry were not enough: Adriana Peña landed today. Not that she can do much, I do not think so. But what is notable is the efforts made by the government to make sure that no one comes here to investigate!!! ¡Quien se pica es por que ají come!

And more before I leave you: the Interamerican Court for Human Rights is hearing tomorrow YET ANOTHER case on Venezuela. I think by now there are at least 5 cases going through so soon we should start getting decisions form that OAS associated courts.


-The end-

Weil and the 26 laws, with Cilia Flores bonus

Ah! We can always count on Weil at critical moments! As usual he says more in a cartoon than the blogosphere posts combined.


What we read here is loosely translatable as: What do you mean? The 26 laws were discussed there.

The there is of course the rubber stamp assembly presided by Silly Flowers who has been way more busy putting dozens of relatives and friends on the National Assembly payrolls. The puppet of the State Capitol with a little flower as flag is just a masterstroke!

-The end-