I do not want to want to restructure the debt

This is pretty much what Maduro has in mind when he talks of restructuring the huge Venezuelan debt, huge enough that a default would at the very least send shudders through the markets (though it has been previsible enough that I am sure many have taken their precautions long ago).

I'll be as brief as possible.

Crucial elections everywhere, dramatic conclusions! Shame and pride for all!

Today we had dramatic elections in three areas of the world and curiously, I can put them together in a way that they relate to Venezuela! Not necessarily directly but bear with me.

Yaracuy governor first meeting with "his" mayors

The 14 of them, duly red shirted, duly 4F baseball capped. I do not know about you but this looks so undemocratic, that elected mayors must do as first activity to recognize the overlordship of the governor. Not to mention that some of them have, how can I put that nicely?, thug faces?  Note that this is not a working meeting, almost none has a pen and paper.  This is a staged photo op for the glory of the governor who does not even bother facing us (though I suppose in the official press releases we will see his face, this is a mere tweet from the assistant but how so more telling...)

Nuestro Gobernador @JULIOLEONYARA con los 14 Alcaldes rojos rojitos #YaracuyTeCumplioComandante @prensayaracuy pic.twitter.com/DqNOPzXXWF
— Willian Lopez (@W57L) December 11, 2013

Our governor with the 14 red reddish [?] mayors #YaracuyKeptItsPromiseComandante

Sean Penn backs Chavez who backs Ameliach: how to lose an election

Woman breaking CNE rules, Sean boy, Chavez and booed Ameliach

UPDATED
The Chavez campaign is not doing very well.  And it keeps adding errors. One does not need to read polls to sense that the ship is adrift, unable to land anywhere.  Even BBC's new man in Caracas (a woman this election, Sarah Grainger) senses it as opposed to the now discredited cheerleaders of, say, Reuters who have bought Chavez putative victory bait, hook and sink; and today once again! Proving that Reuters is the lone species to trip over and over the same fake polls.  A brief analysis of what happened in Carabobo state today will illustrate my point.

We are now in the middle of the campaign and Chavez has all the trouble in the world to make a couple of outings a week when Capriles is hitting the roads daily, for miles and miles.  Not only that, but Chavez is isolated from the scant masses on top of a float of sorts which makes him look sillily distant. Bad enough as it is, his cross current initiatives make things worse, while without any logical explanation Sean Penn is watching as if he were a big star bringing votes in Carabobo....

Stars falling already. And others falling soon?

Too despondent about Venezuela's current degradation to write about it there is fortunately foreign matters to keep us entertained.

Little signs that things are not well in Venezuela

Reading El Universal today was a depressing exercise.  I counted at least a dozen articles, from economy to the red pages, that related how bad things are turning in Venezuela.  With no hope for improvement in sight.

Comparando estilos de dictadura de Carmona y Chávez

Ayer era el 13 de abril y el chavismo estaba celebrando. Bueno, el núcleo duro porque un montón de las personas que se veían en las calles se les había dicho de marchar o pasar por el departamento de liquidación. Mi pareja fue uno de ellos, a mi me consta de que fue así.

Como algo de retribución se me ocurrió releer el infame decreto de Carmona Estanga del 12 de abril y compararlo con lo que es la situación de Venezuela hoy en día. Ya saben, para ver cuál de Carmona y Chávez es el peor dictador.

Artículo primero: nombrar presidente a Carmona. Bueno, eso es exactamente lo que Chávez habría hecho en 1992 si no se hubiera cagado en los pantalones en el Museo Militar. 0-0.

Lessening the two evils

And thus the choice of Peru is becoming the choice of a continent.  We hoped for the last minute surprise of PPK edging Keiko Fujimori but it was not to happen.  And thus in what is almost a text book case of two extremes joining, a majority of Peruvians have voted for totally unacceptable extremes and they imposed upon the more civilized stock the nasty duty to chose the less stinky option they left us at the toilet of history.  See, I am already using "us" and I am not Peruvian.

Tonight I was very briefly watching Buenas Noches in Globovision, another example of shitty choice between utter idiocy and utter evil at VTV.  I watched it because as I was surfing I got there just as they started talking of Peru's election.  Kiko, in his unreconstructed superficial leftism said he was going to go for Humala while his side kick Carla Angola refused to take an outright stand, indicating as such that she was going to Keiko.  And thus was there the trap set by the left, that you could not possibly consider Keiko over Ollanta, because, you know, she is the daughter of a dictator...  You laugh?  Even Quico fell for that one, going as far as confusing a banal campaign clip as the dark designs of Keiko Fujimori.  It is fitting that this 11 of April I learned more about how come Chavez became president than I had learned in a long time.  See, Kiko Bautista was an open supporter of Chavez in 1998 while I was already telling to whomever cared to listen to me that Chavez was hell upon us.  And Quico Toro is a well known comeflor seen as stepping on his own toes occasionally.

Agroisleña is even bigger than what you thought

Since last Sunday people have been looking closely at Agroisleña that in a fit Chavez has decided to confiscate.  confiscate is the word because by now the practice of the regime is to pay part only, when it pays anything at all.   I need to update what I already wrote yesterday because the editorial of Veneconomia today shows that the Agroisleña take over could actually wreck the banking system of Venezuela.  Even though Miguel already posted this editorial a couple of hours ago I thin that people interested in Venezuelan economics cannot miss it.  At the end, some additional comments of my own.

Destructive Spiral

"Magical realism" in Venezuela, Chavez talks to his base, Arria talks to the world

Today we got examples of what is effective long term action and what is a mere silly rant.  Let's us start with the later.

The electricity mess of Chavez for dummies

Finally the Chavez administration has decided to act more decisively on the issue of the Guri damn running dry and shutting down most of the electric generation of Venezuela. Thus a punitive decree was issued where people who are unable to save a certain amount of electricity at home will be punished with amounts as high as twice their electricity bill. That is right, Chavez and his government screwed up big time but it is the consumer that will be punished as Chavez is unable to accept his part of responsibility in the crisis. True, were he to accept, it would bring additional political trouble, but the way he is proceeding could well bring an outright uprising which is what, after all is said and done, it seems he is seeking.

But I digress. The objective of this post is to go on the electric crisis history point by point for the reader to clear up the B.S., floating around (from the chavista propaganda to the anti Chavez one only too willing to exaggerate chavismo woes, something admittedly difficult to do).

A new worthy march for the 23 de enero, with reader participation

Tomorrow once again we celebrate and commemorate the end of our latest old style directorship, the one of Perez Jimenez. Unfortunately, once again we need to hit the streets in protest as we are now under a new style of dictatorship perhaps but a dictatorship nevertheless. Or what else can we call a regime where the president decides to expropriate a supermarket chain and under its order a legislative parliament votes the necessary law within 4 working days?

Caracas tomorrow will hold two marches.

The EXITO nullity debacle

Before I get into discussing the seizure of EXITO stores by chavista goons today I thought that it would be good to add a sense of perspective. The major stockholder of the CATIVEN group which holds EXITO and CADA is the Casino group of France. They declared today that losing the EXITO stores would simply not affect their balance sheets because the Venezuelan operation represents about 1% of its turnover and almost zero profit. So here, at home, we have been anguishing over the EXITO takeover, watching workers fighting it out among themselves, thinking for ourselves it was a big deal, wondering how it will affect our access to increasingly scarce and expensive items, when in fact EXITO is almost irrelevant for its owner.

I cannot think of a better example to illustrate how irrelevant Venezuela is becoming in a globalized economy. Imagine what we will represent in 5 years from now if Chavez does not leave office. No more than a mediocre occasional oil supplier?

Chavez reacts! Same old, same old....

So this is the situation:

- You have had to devaluate your currency 100%
- You cannot reliably provide electricity to your country
- Your first two plans to ration electricity have failed miserably, and covered you in ridicule
- For the first time in years your poll numbers have crossed the 50% mark, down
- You preside an administration that fudges data and applies freely price controls and yet you had to admit a 27% inflation
- Since now more than half of your imports will be at 100% more Bolivares you can expect inflation to reach 50%
- Your country is described as a dead beat as repeated requests for payment remain without reply
- The crime in your country is so bad that now folks are robbed by gangs that take over a whole car in Caracas subway in between stops
- Every where you read that matters are going to get worse, that your henchmen are incompetent vicious nincompoops
- You need to go to give your state of the union address

What to do, oh what to do!?!?

Very simple:

On wings of war?

So I can address finally Chavez latest hubris, to reactivate the tension with Colombia.

The first thing to observe is that there was no serious reaction to the renewed attempt at Chavez to stir up the nationalistic fiber. The opposition all but mocked the president, remembering perfectly well that last time he sent tanks to the border they were trapped in the traffic jams of the ARC highway. The only note of interest was the declaration of ex president Carlos Andres Perez I translated last night, to the effect that any president that plays with his country the way Chavez plays deserves the boot. Make no mistake, no matter how harmless in the long run the latest lunacy of Chavez might seem, it will represent at the very least substantial administrative costs, will reduce further the already paltry foreign investment and will contribute to polarize further the country as chavista goons at any time could start beaten up some of the Colombians living inside Venezuela and numbered at several millions, the largest foreign contingent inside Venezuela.

But what must have worried Chavez is that his own side did not reflect much more enthusiasm for the fight than the opposition. Besides the expected cheering of the Taliban sycophants such as labor minister Cristina Iglesias or Caracas mayor Rodriguez, not much was heard. In fact Iglesias and Rodriguez probably jumped on the opportunity for some self promotion since their star is not too bright within chavismo these days.

Let's say that there probably was more reaction outside Venezuela than inside. Though not necessarily for the better as, for example, Lula got a slap on his face: right after he said he would promote an Uribe Chavez meeting soon, Chavez went out to heighten tensions. Lula made a fool of himself pretending that he could bring those two guys to the same table while ignoring one of the main reasons for the discord: the FARC support by Chavez. It is astounding that at this juncture Lula is not more forceful on this matter, confirming in my mind what I have written in the past, that Brazil's interest include a weakening of Colombia, the only country today that can challenge them for the control of part of South America. It is time for Lula to go, he has done what he was meant to do and it seems that he is starting to undo his work.

So why this whole mess you may ask? There are two very basic reasons.

The first one is the Galtieri complex, named for the Argentine general that tried to hide the military regime collapse by going to war over the Falklands. We all know how this ended. With all the internal problems that have exploded into Chavez face, problems of his own making, he needs something as big as a war to force the attention of the country elsewhere. A time tested strategy for scoundrels at any level when they feel trapped.

A second reason is that by promoting the danger of war Chavez could force out of Tachira (and Zulia?) state houses the current opposition governors in office, for "national security reasons". There is an increasing need for that because the presence of Cesar Perez in Tachira is bringing an increasing spot light on the drug traffic across the border, the guerrilla hide outs protected by the Venezuelan army, etc, etc... In Tachira and Zulia chavismo needs governors that not only offer a blind eye to all these abuses but in fact collaborate actively in protecting the FARC camps, the jungle landing strips, the drug traffic and what not.

I think this second reason is the real matter for last Sunday outburst. But there is yet another third reason that one can come up with if we assume that Chavez is indeed becoming crazy. A war with Colombia offers him a convenient way out of office at a difficult time and knowing that he has neither the skills or the people to solve the problems of Venezuela. Two sub-speculations here:

1) Chavez is indeed a nut job now and he wants war. He does not care whether he loses, he thinks he will win on the history books anyway and that his face might replace the one of the Che on t-shirts.

2) Chavez knows he will lose and that neither the army or his party will follow him all the way in a war. The consequence will be either a major purge within chavismo and increased dependence on Cuba (I can see Cubans promising that exit), or there will be a coup against him by his own followers and thus Chavez enters not only the legend, but leaves behind a messy country that others will have to clean up allowing for his eventual return in half a dozen years when people only remember the piñata of 2004-2008, just as the return of Carlos Andres Perez in 1988 was due to the memories of the piñata of the 70ies over which he presided.

The wings of war look more and more the only way that Chavez has to fly/flee the tight spot he placed himself in.

-The end-

Correa sees, Correa does

The fruit never falls too far from the tree.

Chavez is visiting this week end Ecuador. His arrival speech was worthy of the ones with see in cadenas lately, attacking freedom of expression, blasting the OAS and what not. All accompanied with copious lies and calumnies.

Correa emboldened by his new constitution and reelection is determined not to waste time and avoid "errors" made by Chavez. He announced that he will deal effectively with the Ecuadorean media and review any license, regardless of what the SIP, OAS or Human Rights organizations will say.

In other words the two donkeys are scratching each other getting ready to muzzle freedom of information AND freedom of expression, covering each other's back in front of the international criticism that will come.

Correa has been a good student, and more effective as he has guarded a certain distance with Chavez (he did keep the USD as Ecuador currency for example) to look a little bit more palatable than his master on the international arena. Then again he is better educated than Chavez which does not stop him from being of the same rotten fruit origin.

-The end-

There is a world pandemic. Meanwhile, back at Chavez ranch...

There is an outbreak of what seems to be a new Flu Virus (rather than the poor pigs bearing all the blame again).

What does chavismo says? Two things:

1) all is fine, marches can be going on, rallies held. A responsible government would forbid any marches, opposition or chavista alike, for a week or two. But that would mean that the beloved leader could not hold hostage hundred of his followers in a single room for hours on end during any of his frequent cadena perorata. Not to mention that in authoritarian regimes, all should be the best in the better of the world, Candide style. That is, until someone is found to blame.

2) instead of seeking cooperation of local authorities and making sure that flu vaccines and medication are plentiful (working or not is not the question here, a lousy vaccine is still better than no vaccine for the populations more at risk) chavismo is instead taking by assault local health centers so that none of them would be under the care of local opposition authorities. Of course, taking by assault with the Nazional Guard these centers, as if they were dangerous military objectives, result in the closing of these centers for a few days if not weeks until certified red personnel can be found to manage them. But by experience we know well that ridicule is not something that affects chavismo.

Now, we are all left to shudder about what will happen to Venezuela if the New Flu reaches our shores. There are already suspect cases in Colombia so it is just a matter of time. With Caracas overcrowding, with the decrepit system of Barrio Adentro, with a generally crumbling hospital infrastructure where minimum hygiene conditions are hard to maintain, not to mention that running water for more than half the population is something that happens an average of a few precious hours a day, I leave it to your imagination to guess the consequences of an epidemic in Venezuela.

In a perverse and sadistic way I am looking forward such an outbreak because it will expose bluntly all the wonders of the Chavez health care system. I mean, if it is going to happen I prefer it to be now because another couple of years of Chavez inefficient administration without money and increased corruption will make things worse. Then again, considering the government reluctance at acknowledging an increase in other diseases such as Dengue, Chagas, Paludism, Yellow Fever and Tuberculosis, you can already assume that whatever numbers are published will be highly unreliable.

PS: yesterday's assault against the Baruta and La Carlota neighborhood heath center is particularly galling. The reasons behind such a ridiculous assault bu the Nazional Guard are simple to understand: nothing should be left to the care of opposition elected officials, the more so if they stand a chance to do a better job than the previous chavista authorities. Thus, defeated governor Diosdado Cabello is organizing a deliberate sabotage of all the initiatives of his successor, Capriles Radonski, including a likely reopeneing of an extinct groundless judicial case. Not only Cabello demonstrates, along his boss, his absolute deficit of democratic values, amen of his established corruption abilities (moral and otherwise), but he also explicitly shows us that he is afraid of Capriles. Pathetic...

But Capriles like Ledezma is showing to be himself way more creative than the Chavez low life goons. With himself unable to coordinate the heath response to the coming crisis he decided to decree that his state of Miranda is now in an health emergency.

This is clever because it forces the government to demonstrate RIGHT NOW that its illegal take over of the local health facilities are not going to affect their function whatsoever. This, the government cannot do as it is already hard pressed to run what it controls. There is not enough Cuban doctors Chavez can bring along fast, or vaccines he can buy around. Not to mention that this will motivate the neighborhood associations that were protesting loudly to organize better their monitoring of the situation and inevitable protests in a country which is reaching fast ebullition conditions

-The end-

Chavez dysfunctional reality

There is a suffused sense of the unreal when we watch the chavista campaign for the eternal reelection referendum. It is not really a matter of watching the now routine power abuse to win an election at any cost. No, there is something else at play, something associated with the rotten stench of crumbling structures and nobody seems to notice. In a way it really does not matter: whether Chavez wins his referendum does not change an iota on the crisis coming Venezuela's way. One could even say that the best that can happen to Chavez is to lose the referendum so he can use his still significant ascendant to better goals than politics, for example to explain the tightening of the populist state that we cannot avoid any longer. If Chavez wins he will be forced to prepare his next reelection from the following day and that can only speed him up on the road to repressive regime. Paradoxically for him, winning the referendum could actually mean that he will not finish his term as his own disenchanted people might throw him out before his second term is over.

But Chavez seems to believe in his star even as numbers everywhere look negative and even as his many blunders are more and more apparent. Either that or he has a secret option in store. Let's look at some of the salient moments.

Last Tuesday he held a 7.5 hours cadena. That is right, for 7.5 hours ALL radio stations of the country and ALL TV stations of the country were forced to transmit in simultaneous broadcast his "state of the union" speech. Surely a record somewhere. All the National Assembly and its guests (ambassadors in particular forced to attend for protocol reasons). Besides the physical feat of speaking for 7.5 hours straight without allowing the audience to take a pee break, there was nothing to admire in what was only a litany of the alleged achievements of last year. The only thing missing from the inventory was the numbers of nails planted in ministries walls to hang on Chavez portraits. But there was something to blame, the extraordinary number of lies that Chavez uttered, including the absence of street kids in Venezuela. I suppose that the one I see juggling balls at the same crossing most mornings has not been told yet that he ceased to exist since he is now registered (Is he?). But that Chavez performance only underlined what a mockery of everything Chavez does, how deeply he despises institutions, going as far as making up a silly excuse to take the chair of the president of the National Assembly, and thus underscoring to the country that he owns it.

But one thing he never mentioned was the criminal death toll of Venezuelan streets. What world is Chavez living in?

We also see how the National Assembly worded the amendment question making sure that the word reelection did not appear. Why the sudden prudery? Are they finally realizing how indecent their proposal is? Are they so embarrassed that the amendment to one article has become a bona fide constitutional reform of 5 articles that they opted for a cryptic referendum question? One is left to wonder if the chavista assembly has not realized that it is so devoid of leadership that it decided to cling to Chavez for dear life. Their self degradation is reaching such extremes that cameras apparently will be banned from their sessions, except for the one focusing on the current speaker. They do not want the world to see that they are so bored, that they have so little to do besides waiting for orders from Miraflores that they waste their time chit chatting or checking strange e-mails from anti breast cancer societies...

But this servility of the Assembly is matched by all those chavista officials that spent two years explaining to us why it was obvious that Chavez should be the only one allowed eternal reelection. Suddenly Chavez changed his mind and today they have to be equally creative at saying the exact opposite that they were still explaining us two weeks ago. Do they think honestly that people will not notice? But surely their servility is matched by the electoral CNE who has already decided on many things for that vote without waiting for the constitutional requirement of receiving the duly approved referendum question. Obviously the CNE was much more concerned about anticipating the orders of their boss than to follow constitutional requirements.

Is there anyone left within chavismo with enough backbone to at least shut up? Or are they counting on Chavez to dig his own grave with this referendum? Or are they aware of the repression coming and they are already protecting themselves? Who knows! Rotting systems have surprising self preserving ways.

However one thing is certain: repression is already starting as we saw what happened today to the protesting students, what happened to Venezuelan politicians traveling overseas because their colleagues do not want to visit Venezuela anymore, what happened to journalists covering the National Assembly, and more. But we should be happy: everyday Chavez and his cohorts give us more reasons to vote NO.

-The end-

Now Chavez wants to change the calendar!

Today Chavez gathered his new elected appointees for a good brain washing, oops!, brain storming session about what the new mayors should do for the pseudo-revolution. Nothing new, it already happened in 2004 to the results we know. Many highlights interesting to note.

First, he decided that the referendum date should be on February 27, in commemoration of the Caracazo. There is just one tiny little problem, it is during the Carnival holidays and even some of his sycophants dared to point that out. Chavez did not like it and started questioning who fixed the Carnival holidays! All offended by the thought that someone could fix the calendar and that this one was not him!!! Wait until he finds out that Carnival is decided according to Easter and that his good pals at the Church are the ones who decide that. A new schism in Christianity in the making? For the man who single handedly changed the legal time for Venezuela nothing is impossible!!!! Even to change the date of the first full moon of spring!!! Thus spoke Zarathustra!

Other details were cute too. A few chairs were empty and like your average schoolmarm he asked where these folks were, wishing for them to have a good excuse and promising a catch up training session as soon as possible. Amazing! The guy has lost all sense of ridicule!

He also demanded austerity from them. That is, no more body guards nor AC cars. Or some kind of crap to that effect. We are not holding our breath. Did anyone mentioned to Chavez that Disodado had 60 Miranda cops as his personal escort and dozens of car at his service while he was governor? I am sure that Diosdado is going to start flying coach and drive himself his car turning on the AC only when he goes to Maracaibo or Ciudad Bolivar....

I think it is time that Chavez changes his medication..................

-The end-

The post November US

Two articles today allow us to think that the US will not be as tame in its relations with Chavez, no matter which is the new administration. We already know that Obama and McCain have been competing in being the harshest on Chavez and his pals, but what these two articles make us see is that the "anti-Chavez feel", to give it a name, is percolating beyond the presidential candidates circles, an essential condition for a bipartisan policy against Chavez to be implemented.

The first one is an editorial, no less, from the Washington Post. Here the novelty is a clear petition that the US only helps friendly regimes and let the other ones sink in the "XXI century socialism" predictable fiasco. I am not too sure about the hang up about Correa who is weaker than one would expect in spite of winning his referendum in rather scandalous conditions. To begin with he lost in Guayaquil, his home state, thus previewing the rise of a strong opposition much faster than what many will expect. And second the dollarization of Ecuador's economy which will limit his range of action. If Correa dares to leave the dollar zone the backlash could quickly undermine him and create conditions for an early exit. After all dollarization survived the constituent assembly, the ideal time to make such change, and thus Correa might have missed his real chance at controlling all à la Chavez.

But the Post is right on one thing: the satellites of Chavez need more the US than the US needs them and it is simply fair that the US start using its leverage in forcing them to chose once and for all between socialist misery or democracy and a diversified economy. The resources recovered them can be transferred to more reliable partners or allies such as Colombia, Peru and the rest of Central America. Crisis or no crisis, "capitalism" and true democracy have demonstrated historically to be resilient, a re-inventive system whereas autocratic socialism has yet to establish a successful example anywhere in the world. Time is on the US side and Western values and thus it is time that the US starts speeding things up by choosing who to help: the other side will rot even faster.

The other article is from O'Grady at the WSJ. It is a direct warning that the congressional democrats need to put their act together. We do observe indeed a tendency from the House to be too lenient towards extremist groups while refusing to vote the free trade treaty with Colombia. However we cannot help but be dismayed by that congressional ambivalence that does not exist with Obama who is called to become their leader next November (I think it is in the bag for him as I cannot foresee how the GOP will recover in one month from the financial crisis). I suspect that once Obama is in the white House things will straighten up some as it has been clear that part of the ambiguous congressional posturing was for electoral purposes. Freed of that pressure and looking ahead to 8 years of rule the trade treaty with Colombia can be easily voted, in particular with the help of Chavez as he wants nuclear energy. We should not forget that we can always rely on Chavez to offer his enemies the necessary arguments to counterattack him.

If the current summary of Venezuela situation by Ms O'Grady is excellent (includes a video where she stumbles on the word Nuclear), we can still regret that she could not resist the cheap shot of showing Pelosi and Cordoba in chavista red. The picture was taken a year ago, when Cordoba was still not as implied in terrorist activity and before the freedom of Ingrid Betancourt. Since that picture was taken even Chavez publicly broke with the FARC (even if we all know that secretly he is doing anything he can to help them, but that is another story). Probably today Cordoba would not be received anymore by Pelosi. However this partisan moment of O'Grady does not diminish at all the main point she makes: the US Congress will have to chose sides if it hopes to retain any relevance.

-The end-