Vote for Leopoldo, pray for Maria Corina, but bet on Henrique

Wilson at 29

Even though this headline does not apply anymore, I was not going to let it go to waste, having been planning a post with that title for a few days.  The line comes from noted US historian Samuel Eliot Morison who recalled that the first time he voted was for the election of 1912 between Taft, T. Roosevelt as a dissident and Wilson for the Democrats.  Young and inexperienced he asked for advice and one of his friends told him that line that for some strange reason always stayed with me for its nearly exquisite understanding of politics: "Vote for Roosevelt, pray for Taft, but bet on Wilson." (1)

Until Monday night this had been pretty much my feeling as to what the outcome of February 2012 should be, or at least how should I think about it.  Alas, Leopoldo and Henrique tied the knot yesterday and I have not been able to pull out an adequate historical quote.

The debate that ended in a real surprise

At the debate tonight what mattered the most was the leaving line of Leopoldo Lopez as to a forthcoming joint announcement with Capriles next day.  In fact, after watching it live, really, Miguel and I did hang out for a while and all candidates did, except Leopoldo who was nowhere to be found, with few of his supporters around except for his mother that made a point to go and give Capriles a hug (well, we thought it was Leopoldo's mother anyway).  There is no need to treat this as some form of running away, but simply something big is planned tomorrow and the less people had access to LL and his close circle, the less possibility of a leak as to the details.

It would be unbecoming, so to speak, to speculate widely as to the announcement tomorrow but tonight we can certainly piece up a few things.  Readers of this blog should not be too surprised after all: the Maria Corina Machado bout with Chavez 10 days ago has changed the dynamics of the campaign (here and here).  Not that Henrique Capriles Radonski  is threatened decisively but now positions 2, 3 and 4 are up for grabs and wide open for Pablo Perez, LL and MCM, without discounting that after tonight's performance HCR is not going to go up in polls and could well be in trouble by February 12.  Let's face it, if Capriles were so sure of winning, why would he accept a pact with Leopoldo at this late in the game?

So, what gives?

A 23 de Enero with a new breeze

Today we commemorate January 23 1958 date we threw out or one before last dictator.  Yes, I consider now Chavez a dictator even if he has been elected at some point So the opposition Unidad decided to use the date to offer the governmental program for the next elected president of the opposition.  Assuming we will win....  Still, it was a nice ceremony that I attended courtesy of my contacts with X.  I did a live twittering of the whole thing with some picture (not too good, my zoom stopped working for some mystery reason not solved yet).  Nice, simple ceremony with the 6 candidates on state listening the presentation and not declaring anything.

Debate tonight

Tonight we have what might be the last debate before the campaign ending, or at least the last debate that may still change the arriving order.  I will be covering it live either on twitter or blog.  Starting Caracas time 8 PM.  It is hosted by Globovision and it seems that the format will change some so that the candidates will have the opportunity to diss the other guys a little bit.  should be more enjoyable than the previous ones.  And Globovision is seen in many countries so check your cable if your Spanish allows for trying to watch the show.

Campaign temperature

Without judging the value of that video or investigating whether the claims are correct (I assume that they are not totally misleading because at this stage of the campaign it would be too dangerous to pull such a stunt) I am putting this video ad of Leopoldo Lopez which apparently was censored by X.  It is about Lopez commitment to fight crime.  I have no further detail so far on that censorship allegation.  Regardless, it gives you an idea of the campaign temperature and probably foretells a more interesting debate than usual next Monday night.  You do not need to understand Spanish to get the mood.

The other primaries: PJ gambit in Miranda and Aragua

Let's start for the easiest one to discuss and the only one that has reliable polls for some of the races. Primero Justicia is trying to with Miranda what UNT has done in Zulia: transform the state into its political base and try from there to hopscotch elsewhere, like in next door Aragua.  For this it is willing to burn bridges and antagonize whoever it needs to.

Miranda governor

The other primaries: ground rules for local election peering

If general attention is focused mostly on the presidential primaries of the opposition, for some of us who live in the hinterlands of Venezuela the picture is not necessarily set in the studios of Globovision or OpEd columns or blogs written from Caracas or outside the country.  Since Panorama faked debate was supposed to be about the regional proposals of the 6 musketeers, it is as a good a time to start looking into the other primaries, for governors and mayors.  The first post will be about PJ efforts in Miranda and Aragua while further posts will visit some important regional primaries but before we start, some ground rules, so to speak (so that other posts may be short and breezy).

Ibsen Martinez calls Maria Corina Friday moment a "black swan"

Ibsen Martinez, noted political commentator, has just published an article in La Patilla where he writes about 90% of what I wrote yesterday about Maria Corina Machado moment at the National Assembly last Friday.  The 10% missing is that he calls it a "black swan", an unexpected event that will have durable consequences.  So I do not need to translate it since you can read my post again and just add "black swan" wherever you may like :)

Debate versus cadena

Tonight we had the leisure to compare an exercise in neo-totalitarianism and an essay on democracy.  Neo-totalitarianism lost hands down.

Chavez dared to call a cadena on the formal appointment of Rangel Silva as new defense minister.  He already is but there is always a ceremony of sorts since military love to polish their shoes, dress up, pin up their shiny chest hardware.  So Chavez decided to make it a grand ceremony and attack all those who attack Rangel Silva, and upgrade (?) Maria Corina Machado from fly to viper.  I made a video of the beginning but the Internet is soooo bad tonight that I am not sure to finish this post before midnight.  So tomorrow from work I will upload it because it is worth it for you to see what a lousy army we now have, morally AND physically.

Shifting political grounds

I am not too sure what is exactly going on but one thing is certain: many players are getting ready for a change.  We are not sure what change is coming but something is coming.  And I am not talking about only the possibility of Chavez losing office.

The thing is that the reactions of some pro Chavez players added to the general reactions to Maria Corina Machado "por ahora" moment last Friday has been quite revealing in that some form change is certainly coming.  I doubt that people know what they want but that is another story.  I have been thinking a lot about that since Saturday and below, in no particular order, some thoughts.

MCM and PJ: exposing the COPEI-zation of Primero Justicia?

Marian stunts: part 2, Maria C. at the National Assembly

Daring!

One thing was certain: the talk of the town waiting for the Divina Pastora to walk by was of Maria Corina Machado calling Chavez a thief.  That is, for those who did not forget their political interests while performing their marian devotions.  And as the week end progressed she remained the talk of the town, to the point that Chavez himself felt compelled to pretend to be the aggravated party when it was for all to see that he was a mere machista lout in his blurted reply to her last Friday.

The thing is that the Friday show, which lasted 9 hours or something like that, was merely an electoral campaign stunt for Chavez that did not turn as expected and that became the "por ahora" of Maria Corina Machado.  Chavez wanted to use the pretext of the "state of the union" chavista style to prove once and for all that he had recovered and that he was in charge.  Bruni even suggests to us that the ultimate intention of Chavez was to establish a Guinness record just in case he dies or gets the boot next October.  And indeed 9.5 hours is a record that only a more deranged mind than Chavez or Fidel may want to challenge.

Marian stunts: part 1, at La Divina Pastora

La Divina Pastora, my second ever tweetpic

I do not know what to think of that coincidence.  On Friday a woman called Maria did bring religion to many people by calling Hugo Chavez a thief.  And today I went to Barquisimeto to watch that other miracle, a Madonna image called La Divina Pastora bring to the streets millions, with S, of people to march along her side.  We will start with the procession of La Divina Pastora.

I am not a believer, I am an agnostic and as such you need to read this photo essay, making sure that any belief you hold is not offended.  And yet, the intensity of the moment with the huge crowds that one has to face can raise troubling feelings, if anything of jealously for not being able to be a believer of anything.

But I digress.  I had wanted for years to attend one of these events, the easier for me that I do have relatives in Barquisimeto and I can arrive the day before to dodge the bullet of massive traffic jam on the 14 in the morning.  Already I did write about this event in 2004, which by the way was the first time ever that blogger allowed me to post pictures in the blog.  It is kind of fitting that 8 years after I post above my second ever twitter picture taken from my berry.  Technology advances.  But I digress again.

Lara State stand handing out water and tangerines for free

The thing is truly impressive and if you ever have the chance to attend do not miss it.  It is not that it is particular beatiful (it is not) or spectacular (it is but not in your usual ways), and yet  it is something quite unique that can be seen only perhaps at La Guadalupe in Mexico or maybe some Hindu festivals and pilgrimage shrines.  The atmosphere, you know.