Saturday, May 01, 2004
May 1, 2004, Labor day in Venezuela
Today I will revisit an old post of mine.
Next I am quoting myself as to what I wrote one year ago after I returned from last year May day march:
Of course the march was beautiful, a sea of colorful Venezuelan flags ahead of, and behind, us. I took nice pictures. I also took pictures of the National Guard blocking every single street that would go in the direction of the National Assembly or Miraflores Palace. US marines in Iraq were not any better endowed. And people were furious!!! The Metropolitan Police had actually a cordon between the National Guards and us. The frightening thing was that the officers seemed to be taunting the marchers instead of being in clear defensive and non-provoking positions. Confirming my suspicions that Chavez is selecting the members of the National Guard to make them his own praetorian guards. Oh well...
Anyway, I came back satisfied but more worried than in the January marches. The mood was different this time. People seem in a somber mood, more grimly determined. Things are different now. We'll see.
Considering what has happened in one year, all the tricks displayed by chavismo to block any peaceful solution to the political crisis, and all ending in the shameful days following February 27 with the return of flagrant Human Rights Violations in Venezuela, I will pat myself in the back as to my unfortunate prescience.
I include two pictures from last year (I could not post pictures then). The first one is simply the lone Metropolitan Police officer that distractedly separates the marchers from the National Guard. He knows his side, he knows that nothing will happen. The National Guards that then seemed rather armed to me are today even more so. Times have changed.
While we were marching alongside the National Assembly (El Congreso), some of the officers had very taunting attitudes, almost wishing for a confrontation. I did manage to capture one of them, climbing on top of a stone marker to dominate the crowd. Not the worst offender I saw that day, but at least it will give you an idea. Then, no matter how furious the crowds were, they behaved, they still thought that the signatures collected in February 2003 would have an effect. But now...
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posted by Daniel Permalink 9:14 AM
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Thursday, April 29, 2004
Aporrea gets a hit
and perhaps some advertisement
The editor of Tal Cual is not amused today. Aporrea web site, the famous pro Chavez forum in the web (in Spanish) has criticized his family connections, I suppose in the spirit of "convincing people to remove their signatures".
In general I avoid criticizing other web sites that have a blog/forum "feel" since they are very "personal". But considering that I really cannot stomach the declarations of Assemblyman Lara (April 23 here) on "talking to people to convince them to withdraw their signature" I have taken the time to translate quickly the editorial of Simon Boccanegra on Aporrea. By the way, Aporrea seems to consider as traitors people who signed for the Recall Election petition, in particular if they work for any government agency. A peculiar conception of democracy if you ask me. The reader will decide whether I was right in translating it.
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The baseness of “aporrea.org”
In the page of "aporrea.org", reproduced by the daily Reporte, the list of Central Bank workers who signed is published again [who signed for the Recall Election]. But in this instance a particular commentary is made on several of the mentioned ones. Of Rayna Petkoff, daughter of the director of TalCual [Teodoro Petkoff, often cited in this site], it is written that she was “hired when her daddy was director of the BCV” and of Luis Pastori, aside from noting that “he does not work” but “he gets paid allegedly as a consultant”, he is branded with the supreme disqualification: “He is the father-in-law of Teodoro Petkoff”. These two notes are sufficient to portray the moral misery of the rats, toads and bats that populate the obscure corners of chavismo. Rayna Petkoff, sociologist, entered the Central Bank in 1987, ten years before "her daddy" became director of the institute, and she reached the Direction of Culture by her own merits, well enough before her father occupied a chair in the directory, the same one that Giordani occupies today and for the same reason [Petkoff occupied the same cabinet chair, planning, in the Caldera Administration the one that Giordani is occupying today and thus both are/were the representatives of the government to the Central Bank]. Luis Pastori, not because he is "father-in-law" of the director of TalCual, that he has been for seven years, but because he is one of the important poet voices of the country, a National Prize of Literature, in addition of being an economist. He directs the reputed cultural magazine of the institution and with 84 years of age he goes every day to the bank, from which he retired after 37 years of work. But these are things that the miserable cagatintas [“ink shiters” in our colorful parlance] that make “aporrea” do not understand and never will.
They judge according to their condition. They serve the most nepotistic government in the history of the country, in which almost none of its worthies, from the President down, has forgotten to plug their family into the bureaucracy. But of course that swarm of cowards and bootlickers who make “aporrea.org” will never have the faintest gallantry to state this criticism. They prefer to slander. They are paid for that.
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posted by Daniel Permalink 4:31 PM
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Repairing the Recall Election against Chavez
The Venezuelan opposition and the Chavez regime against the wall
Thursday 29, April 2004
I have been distracted by significant work issues these past few days. Bloggers do have a life outside of their blogs even if it does not seem like that :-)
But during these three days hiatus, there was really only one piece of news: after an anguished debate, the Coordinadora Democratica, CD, has decided to go and try to re-validate at the very least 600 000 of the signatures it claims it has collected.
First a reminder
The opposition needs 2.4 million valid signatures to force a Recall election on Chavez mandate (20% of the electorate). After a lot of huffing and puffing the opposition forced a Chavez controlled Electoral Board, CNE, to admit that it had collected 1.9 million approximately. Approximately because even though this result was announced March 2, to this very day nobody knows for sure what is the exact number of valid signatures. So let's assume that this 15.6 % of valid signatures is indeed valid. The first comment is that it is quite a result for the opposition. To remove Grey Davis from California took quite an effort to barely make it to 10%. The Venezuelan Opposition managed 15.4% in 4 days collection. Just to put some perspective.
Now the CNE has grudgingly accepted that 1.2 million signatures might be repaired, or claimed or re-validated. Whatever. And it will give 3 days, in about a month or so, for these 1.2 million folks to step forward and confirm that indeed they did sign up.
This takes place all in front of a legal battleground that is dividing the opposition. A large sector of this one would have preferred not to go to a repair process. Their position is that the CD should have forced the High Court to decided between two contrasting rulings from two of its divisions, the Electoral Court and the Constitutional Court. Critics of this position point out that 1) the final result is not assured to favor the opposition, 2) the Electoral Court is aware of this and thus exhorted the parties to try to make a deal instead of waiting for a final ruling, and 3) who knows when the final ruling would come, probably too late for a Recall Election before August 19. Failing to meet this date will ensure the survival of the regime until 2006, even if Chavez is recalled.
The Coordinadora Democratica position today
Eventually cooler heads prevailed: all agreed that whichever the final decision would be, all would back it. But there are several serious problems still to overcome and it would be a temerity to affirm that the decision is final. The resolution of at least some of these problems is necessary.
The problems to overcome
The long negotiations between the opposition and the CNE to agree on some framework for the repairs have yielded a solution that has pleased few, if any. Regardless of the merits of the rules agreed upon, in the last few days a few major issues have come forward, issues that must be resolved if the process has a chance to reach success. Some of them below.
Some people signed and do not appear anywhere. Amazingly that even happened to some major political leaders from both sides. Ledezma and the vice president share that dubious distinction. And it is notorious that they signed as TV watched when the did so. Where are the forms that included their signature? Can the CNE be THAT disorganized? But more importantly, will these people be able to claim their citizen's right to have participated in the process? We are talking 0.3 million people here.
Chavismo will "convince" people to withdraw their signature. This gravest, and fascistic, breach of ethics is scandalous enough as it is. On the ridiculous side it confirms that no "megafraud" was committed since chavismo amazingly confesses that it must convince at least 0.25 million to withdraw their signature or not show up to re-validate it (they assume that 40% will not show up, that is why they need "only" 0.25 million). In other words they admit that indeed most of the 1.2 million that must be repaired are probably true signatures!!! 1.2 + 1.9 = 3.1. So the fraud would have been 0.3 out of the 3.4 claimed originally by the opposition. Hardly "mega". But this could be left for the lore of Venezuelan politics if it were not carrying further meaning. Chavistas by these declarations claim that they have the right to "alter" the decision of people while the opposition cannot add more people if it could do so. This by itself illustrates quite well the real fraud that was committed by the pro-Chavez CNE. Can the CNE allow such blatant pressure on the electorate? Were there not rules emitted before about the point of taking finger prints as the only way to cancel one's signatures, by proving that someone else had signed for you? Unfortunately recent declarations of Rodriguez indicate that the job will be made easier for the chavista side.
People with "valid" signatures can withdraw. This is of course an extension of the preceding consideration. And this does not seem to have been contemplated previously as it seems to be considered now. Besides allowing further pressure on public employees that signed, one side effect is that it raises all sorts of conspiracy theories. One example is the theory that the government is cloning a series of fake ID so that while people that have valid signatures stay at home peacefully, someone with a fake ID with their ID number goes to annul their signature. Not a large scale operation obviously but a few thousand could be removed this way. A few thousand here, a few there and voila! The magical 0.25!
The data is not complete. When will this one be complete? The opposition needs the data so it has time to track its supporter to inform them. It will need it to prepare the necessary logistics. Every new delay of course complicates the task of the opposition.
What are the chances to succeed?
In front of such a possibility of treachery from the Chavez agents at the CNE one is justified in wondering if it is worth the effort. The divisions within the opposition are understandable. Unfortunately there is no other way right now. All the other options, ranging from hoping for a favorable high court ruling to plain civil disobedience can still be tried out if the Recall Election bid sinks in a sea of treachery. All have very high risks to lead to serious violence which is what the government seems to want, at least since February 27.
There is a simple truth that must impose its wisdom right now to all factors within the opposition.
Since the CD has chosen the strictly legal and electoral path, the Chavez regime has been making mistakes and losing points. The road has been long but it has been paying off. If the opposition wants to use fraud as a reason for further action, in particular from the international community, it must let the fraud happen for all to see. Until now the administration, through the CNE, has been very careful when cheating: no massive fraud can be claimed. But it has also reached the moment when it will need to perform that massive fraud to stop once and for all the march to the Recall Election. For as hard as it will be to witness such a fraud, the opposition must take the chance for it to happen. It must grin and bear it to finally unmask the true nature of the regime, once and for all.
The Regime would be losing in both scenarios. If it balks at the final massive fraud then it must go to the Recall Election and we will know if people are behind Chavez as he claims. If he orders the fraud then he will have to deal with the consequences, internal and external.
I am rather pessimistic as for a favorable outcome of the validation process, but it has to be taken. The chance is slim but it exists and it is still better than marching against the tanks. We claim to hold the moral ground and we must prove it to the world by taking the chance and go through that hopefully last obstacle.
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posted by Daniel Permalink 12:14 AM
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Sunday, April 25, 2004
A quiet and expectant week end.
Sunday evening
Not much to report newswise. I did travel to Caracas this afternoon and I cheered up some watching the beautiful Araguaney blooming all over like deep yellow clouds. Since I have no more digital camera, no pictures for you.
The Coordinadora Democratica is debating internally as to what to do. Unfortunately, and as usual, the Electoral Board AGAIN trumped up things by not surrendering the complete totals that supposedly it had surrendered to the different parties last Friday! Missing where the names of the people, the explanations as to why the signatures had been "put under observation", the list of the signatures annulled altogether, etc... in other words the data necessary to put forward claims and simplify the work of the parties organizing the repair process. The CNE, whose constitutional function is to facilitate electoral processes, does its outmost to paralyze them.
Thus it is unlikely that we will know tomorrow whether the opposition will pick up the challenge. Even if the missing data finally appears today.
Interestingly a series of e-mails were circulating all around calling for the repeat of the early March disorders, as of tomorrow. The CD promptly denied them and altogether blamed chavismo from creating this desinformation wave trying to distract attention from the discussions within the CD, and hoping to break up once and for all the fragile consensus forming within the CD. But chavismo, stone faced through representative Lara, the one that announced the fascist search of people that signed to "convince" them to retract their signature, went promptly today to the judicial system to accuse the opposition of being conspiring again. And he was received promptly even on a Sunday. Gee, I wonder how he does manage to receive such prompt service.
Lara deserves the award "vile person of the week", that he can add to his "vile act of the week award" for his announcement of invading the privacy and conscience of the people
Otherwise the military keeps stalling on the investigative process on the burnt soldiers. While new cases came forward! One of a drown soldier, in mysterious circumstances and another one beaten up and declared "dead from dysentery" or something like that. But I am preparing a little rapport on that, so no details tonight. Suffice today that a couple of generals did fight this week with Lara for the vile person award.
I expect next week to be troubled. Stay tuned.
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posted by Daniel Permalink 7:36 PM
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A Chavez séance on the Venezuelan Economy
in three parts (III)
Rewriting the history books
The highlight of course was Chavez words on why Venezuela fell into a crisis. Until a very few days ago the official line was "the oil industry sabotage during El Paro is the origin of all our problems, and fortunately we are able to overcome this terrorist attack". (1) Now the new official line is "We were doing fine, maintaining growth and controlling inflation for the first time this century until the politics of the opposition in 2000 came to wreck everything”.
Besides being false, it is absurd. But when have revolutionaries bothered with actual historical facts?
Unfortunately for Hugo Chavez, the economic debacle started with the February 2002 devaluation. The political crisis started in November 2001 when the enabling law was promulgated destroying the last vestiges of economical confidence that were left. Whatever he says, his team was in charge from February 1999 until December 2001 when for the first time the opposition was able to call for a strike. This strike was called because Chavez refused to revisit some of the controversial laws dictated within the frame of the enabling law.
I doubt very much that a strike, just before the Christmas month long recess, would have been able by itself to provoke a devaluation 2 months after, so easily undoing 2 years and 10 months of allegedly sound economical policies. (2) Indeed, Chavez was setting the economic parameters for two years and 10 months before the opposition balked. That was long enough for the opposition to make up their minds as to the future of Venezuelan economy. Incidentally, the devaluation was in February 2002 and the "coup" against Chavez was in April 2002.
I suppose that soon we will be told that the nasty opposition was already plotting against Chavez before this one was born. All is possible for the man that has transformed Bolivar from the aristocratic scion of a rich planter family into a communist freedom fighter.
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Notes longer than the text, like in scholarly books!
(1) This was the never ending line that when the PDVSA oil workers went on strike they trashed all installations. To date they have not been able to build a single case of sabotage against a single fired PDVSA worker. These were careful to leave under notary witness a description on how they left things when they went on strike. Apparently the new PDVSA management has not been able to make any charge stick to the now fired workers. This has become really one of the slimiest attack lines of chavismo and it is unbelievable that people are still buying it, even within the opposition. But it is a propaganda war, and thus this lie has still a few days ahead.
(2) Giordani was the architect, if one can call him that, of the Chavez policies in the first half of his term. A theoretical economist of the old school, without any real experience in the private sector he decided to gamble on monetary controls and debt payment to please the like of the IMF. That is, stay out of trouble outside while inside Chaevz changed the constitution.
Giordani never managed to bring inflation to single digits, and along the way could not stop growing budget deficits. Still, he managed to reduce foreign debt at the cost of a ballooning internal debt. The breaking point came late 2001 and by February 2002 devaluation could not be avoided anymore. Amazingly this did not cost him his post. We had to wait until the April 2002 events to see Giordani leave as a sign of a new and improved Chavez. As soon as Chavez could get away with it, he took Giordani back into his cabinet, and at the same post certainly not helping confidence to come back. But Chavez has too few real faithful and Giordani is one of them.
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posted by Daniel Permalink 10:09 AM
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