Sunday, September 26, 2010

The 2010 election day post

Going to bed. Exhausted. Worried sick about a country that is able to rob in such a shameful way the popular will. More analysis tomorrow but we need to wait for the CNE to fess up some more, not like in 2007. At least now the opposition mood is combative and chavismo is on the defensive, no matter how many seats they robbed us.

02:26

60 seats so far for the MUD with the possibility of some more. SO my pessimistic prediction of 69 seats was actually optimistic. We will need to wait some to see how off I was.

02:20

Parlatino
psuv 5.222.364 46.62%
MUD 5.054.114 45.10%


but incomplete yet!!!

chavismo barely wins!!!! BIIIIIIIIIGGGG!

IMPORTANT: the opposition was divided for the Parlatino and thus together it is larger than 45.1%, IT IS LARGER THAN CHAVISMO!!!!! It is a majority!!!!

02:18

I am not too clear on that. Some states do not report 50% and yet the CNE declares them irreversible.

02:12

miranda 6 PSUV MUD 6

monagas : psuv 5 previsible 1 mud

nueva esparta : 3 mud 1 psuv, as expected

portuguesa : psuv 5 mud 1 as expected

sucre: mud 3 psuv 3 good one there!

tachira: mud 5 psuv 1 1 up in the air good prediction

trujillo: psuv 4 mud 1 predictable

yaracuy: psuv 4 mud 1 sad but not surprising

zulia: 12 mud, psuv 3 I got that one!!!!

vargas: psuv 3 mud 1 predictable


02:07

Barinas: MUD only 1

Bolivar: MUD 2!!!!! bad

Carabobo: MUD 3!!! very bad

cojedes: 1 MUD previsible

delta amacuro: 4 PSUV bad!!!

caracas libertador: PSUV 7 MUD 3 really bad

falcon: 4 PSUV MUD 2 bad

guarico: PSUV 3 2 undefined

lara: psuv 6 MUD 3 PPT out!!!!!!!

merida psuv 4 mud 2 previsible


02:03

Typed as I hear them:

66.45% participation

She makes up excuses for the delay

She admits closeness of the vote

She starts the "irreversible" seats count

Amazonas: 2 PPT!!!!

Aragua: 3 MUD

anzoategui : 5 MUD!!!

02:00

Tibisay about to speak!


01:59

The breathless journalists tells us that all this delay for 8 seats!!!!

01:56

The CNE rectors are finally leaving their counting room!!!!

01:22

Fireworks in San Felipe! At last! Someone thinks they have won! I have no idea who it is.....

01:13

From tweets and tips and stuff the scenario of the opposition getting around 70 seats (sans PPT?) seems to be congealing. Leopoldo Lopez states that the Parlatino is won by the opposition and thus it would be proof that the popular vote went to the opposition.

12:59

The PSUV who was gathered for its election headquarters apparently has decided to leave the place, without declarations, and go straight to Miraflroes Palace. You are free to interpret this as you wish....

12:53

Looks like the madness of King Hugo makes the CNE deaf to the warning of Aveledo.

12:37

I have communicated with Caracas Chronicles. Their site is down. It seems that it is a technical problem, not a hacking matter. They request that you be patient and do not try to enter for a few minutes while they try to fix it.

12:27

The opposition speaks up. The spokesperson of the MUD, Ramon Guillermo Aveledo, says that we all know the result but the CNE.  In other words, either the CNE gives the results or the opposition will give its own ones.

Ah! the fresh smell of shit hitting the fan!!!

As such I feel like I can finally call it: the opposition won at least a third of the seats and it seems that it also won the majority of the popular vote (it would not be so cocky if it did not).  But it will not win a majority of the seats.  So my prediction might come true but by how far?



23:45

The ministry for electoral affairs. That is how they call Tibisay Lucena, the CNE head. And tonight she richly deserves that title, unable to call the results until Chavez approves them. Which he will not do unless he gets so many seats. This is the growing rumor, that Chavez does not want to sign his minister decree. Are they going to cheat outright?

The problem here is that no one is questioning that the opposition did not win in seats though a persistent rumor of it winning in votes is floating. But Chavez hung himself to the highest tree by declaring that it was 2/3 or else and just like it happened in the recent Colombia debacle he does not know how to extricate himself from that non-victory.


22:15

Back from walking the dog. It struck me odd that I had not heard any firework or any procession of honking cars. At the very least that means that the result in San Felipe was very close. the locals do have already in their hands the result and for sure if one side had a clear victory they would already be making noise in the streets. From where I live I might not be able to tell who won but I certainly could hear that someone won.....

22:00

Still nothing. Globovision is resorting to fill up the airwaves to recite all the states and how many seats they get. Chavez on twitter is telling his supporters to get ready to accept the results. Is he preparing them for bad news? Who knows, all is possible in the propaganda crazed regime. I agree with CCSChrns: it looks that at the very least Chavez will fail to win his 2/3 majority which he qualified himself as the only victory he could accept. Too bad for him if he does not get it.


Curio: I got a "tip" which told me that the opposition would get 70, 1 more than my prediction. even though the thought would be pleasing for my ego, I ain't buying it.


21:40

This is ridiculous! The regime is not talking!!!! And we do not even have "carometros" except for some smiling faces at Globovision. But with botox, you know....

20:10

Mi friend in a very chavista center of Vargas reports chavismo losing 20% from 2009 and the opposition gaining 10%. Chavismo still wins but the difference shrunk quite a lot, down to 10%.

19:50

I am  finally receiving some data from more chavista areas and it seems that abstention was mayor than usual. The two centers where I have friends in Vargas report an increase in 10% or more in their abstention rate respecting 2009. This in spite of later closings to herd a few extra chavista.  So yes, I cannot put it as a national trend but if we put together with the now confirmed good participation in opposition voting areas then we can have some hopes that at least we are stopping chavismo from getting the 2/3 majority they need to keep rolling over us.

19:40

I am not a liberty to tell but I have received encouraging news. At least from some areas.

18:20

Tables should be closing but look at that! A friend in a chavista table is telling me that they are refusing to close the center and that people are still arriving. Also there are reports in chavista areas where they are trying to round up people.


17:30

Polls about to close. The long wait is about to start. I still have not been able to figure out whether chavista centers are voting as usual.

16:20

Impossible to take a nap. Phone calls.

Only one interesting detail to report. A friend in a voting center has figured out a way to see who votes for PSUV and who does not. See, there are two electronic cards that you need to punch and they are quite large. If you want to vote for the indigenous candidate for the Latin-American parliament you need to make enough of a reach to the bottom right that it is visible from afar!!!! In other words, you can guess who votes opposition straight ticket as only those people would bother marking also the indigenous candidate that runs supported by the opposition.  In his district it does not matter much as most will vote opposition but they took up as a game to watch people they would guess would vote PSUV, and most did vote opposition.  I wonder if chavismo is aware of that and might be using it already, as a type, to force people to vote PSUV....

14:40

Before the nap. A couple of phone calls. They vote in opposition districts and it looks that participation will be larger than in 2008. In particular the center where one of my brother was working in 2008 and 2009 (not this year but he still knows the "testigo" when he went to vote) by 2 PM they were reaching the 2008 number with still three hours to vote.

Nap time now.

14:30

Nothing to report from around here. After a truly beautiful morning looks like a thunderstorm is on its way to San Felipe. Lunch was great. Three cubalibre. Slightly drunk. Need a nap.


A survey of news revealed that in Caracas a troupe of chavista goons tried to stop Ivan Olivares of PJ from voting. The army and the CNE remain silent... It seems that there is a certain restlessness among the PSUV as similar absolutely undemocratic attitudes have been observed also in El Tigre and at the Simon bolivar University of Caracas. The one at the USB is worrisome becasue it was the army that intervened with brutal excess.

Nap time for about an hour, sorry...

12:50

Voting was fast!!! there was no one ahead of me! I was concerned at first but when I looked at my voting book about half of the people had already voted. I suppose that since everybody knows we can vote until 6 PM this time a lot of people decided to stay home for lunch.


In my voting center abstention was 19% in 2009 with more than 80 % voting NO. So I am in opposotion strongholds here and the only number that matters is the abstention. It looks that by 6 PM we should make it to 80% participation. The interesting data is from chavista centers. If you vote there or know people who vote there let us know.

After voting I drove around to different voting places, chavista or not, same panorama: few people, no lines. Lunch time for all. So I cannot tell you anything except what I already told you: in San Felipe the opposotion is voting.

And now, drinks and lunch with my house guest. See you later.

11:58

Before I am off to vote. Another telling sign I forgot to mention. My neighbor is a chavista who benefited from government contracts. in 2009 he was heavily involved in the campaign, with meetings even held in his home. But this time around... nothing.... just a "vote for PSUV" on chalk on his rear window... I am sure he is voting PSUV but the passion ain't there no more.


First accounts from voting readers in the comment. Keep bringing them, it is about the only reliable info we can get right now. All the rest is plain gossip, at least until 2 PM when the first exit polls may start forming the carometros of the regime.

Off to vote.

11:37

Well, my domestic activities took me longer than expected. Then again I started laundry. Not to lower my electoral stress but to increase my low stack of clean clothes, always a source of stress for me.  In fact I can live dirty dishes stacked but I am always very nervous when my laundry hamper is full of dirty clothes....

But I digress.


I did go out to get the papers and that allowed me to drive around the polling stations of San Felipe who always vote for the opposition.  There were line sin all of them.  that is, the opposition electorate is voting en masse, no abstention there, at least not in San Felipe.

Another telling sign, maybe, there were no "puntos rojos".  Those red points were set up by chavistas in previous elections, in particular the 2009 one in San Felipe.  In those stations PSUV members were set to "help" their voters in how to vote.  This time around, when voting is way, way more complex than in 2009, I have yet to see a chavista helping station...  Not that there are opposition helping stations, they never were around anyway.

OK, now I am off to take a shower.  My relative form Barquisimeto has voted and she has arrived here to spend the rest of the day.  We will watch the results together tonight.  S.O. is in Caracas where he votes.  thus after the shower I will go out and vote as my relative keeps an eye on my dog.  If voting is fast enough I will try to drive around more chavista areas to see how it goes.  Then again it will be around lunch time so I do not expect to see much people there or in opposition strongholds.

9:32

Off fr a while. Walk dog, clean up kitchen, get papers. See you in about an hour or so.

9:25

Replying to a comment from "snook72" who is asking about exit polls.


No, as far as I know there will not be exit polls. Too difficult to assess, too expensive for the opposition, too much variation between local areas and districts to make a good sampling for national trend. On the other hand it is possible that in some districts there will be an exit poll. Those could be useful in such districts as Irribaren (Barquisimeto) or Sucre (East Caracas) or even Guarenas-Guatire (Caracas dormitories).

On the other hand I am sure that the regime will do exit polls at least in Libertador, Zulia, Aragua and Carabobo but I doubt that the PSUV will be kind enough to let me know the results even though my voting stations on the right hand of this blog gives me 6 PSUV readers so far  :)

 9:20 AM

A novelty this time around. Miguel has been drafted to work at his voting station. So this time around you can follow the inner workings of a polling station live (he has an I-phone, he can blog). On the other hand he will not be able to check out what happens elsewhere so you are stuck with me for the rest :)

Follow Miguel day at "A day in the life of an electoral worker"

9:00 AM

As expected, at 4 AM the chavista jerks started driving around blaring the military reveille!!!!  I think they drove at least 5 times in my neighborhood.  I could get back to sleep only when I saw the graying of the night......  And this is a neighborhood that votes at least 75% opposition!!!   they should let us sleep!  then again, they could not resist the opportunity to piss us off.


Otherwise taking my coffee I did a scan of all TV channels.  It looks like for the first time in history Venezuela is holding an election....  Pathetic...  But you know what, it is worse in Venevision who in addition is almost all the time in sink with the state system of VTV, Tves. Vive, etc...   At least Globovision makes it look more normal and Televen has more original content.  No wonder Chavez has been praising publicly Venevision lately for being "fair and balanced".

On the other hand polling stations seem to have good attendance, so people are voting as polls predicted.

12:01 AM


When this post will show up first I will be on my way to bed.  I need to go to sleep early because once again chavista jerks threaten to play the "toque de diana" at 4 AM.  That is, the military wake up call...  At least if I hear it I will be able to go back right to sleep since I do not live anymore in front of an electoral center.  then as early at 5 AM it was impossible to sleep well as the grudging poll attendants felt compelled to wake up all the street.

This time around I have not squared up "correspondents" or anything of the sort.  So my regular updates might  not be as telling as in past elections no matter how many surveys around San Felipe polling stations I do.  Then again if any reader sees interesting stuff, please forward.  Last time we even had pictures from overseas voting centers.  Also if like Miguel you or a relative of yours is stuck managing a voting station let them know to send you the name of their center and the voters at a given time.  And then forward it to me since with that alone I can already come up with participation tendencies.  Obviously if they get their center results around 6-7 PM and the CNE is still not talking I have no problem in revealing the data, anonymously of course, once the closing time of 6 PM is reached.  We might need to put pressure this time around in any possible way we can.

As for yourselves, please put your personal impressions at voting time in the comment section, if you vote, that is.  I'll try to visit the moderation page at least once every hour.

And thus with this pre bedtime entry we start early the now traditional election day post who last time got more than 10,000 unique visitors through the day.  See you again around 8 AM.

41 comments:

  1. snook729:24 AM

    Will there be any exit polls that you know of?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Slave Revolt9:58 AM

    OK, I'll admit it, Daniel, it was me that talked the driver into passing your street with the reveille three times. The fourth time was simply the drunk-dude's idea.

    ReplyDelete
  3. snook7210:03 AM

    Thanks Daniel....I read your blog daily from US and today I will be glue to it as well as talking to my family in Maracay. Thank you for all you do to keep all of us informed so well and I wish you and all of Venezuelans good luck today.

    I leave you with two quote for all:

    "Any people anywhere, being inclined and having the power, have the right to rise up, and shake off the existing government, and form a new one that suits them better. This is a most valuable - a most sacred right - a right, which we hope and believe, is to liberate the world."

    "The probability that we may fail in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just."

    Both from Abraham Lincoln

    ReplyDelete
  4. Daniel, great commentary, thanks. Yes, I'd be irritated if morons in bullhorns were blaring their crap at 4AM too!

    I didn't know Venevision had become a "canal jalabola" given Chavez had dissed Gustavo Cisneros a few years ago.

    Are you going to be "tweeting" as often as you update the blog?

    ReplyDelete
  5. I had my finger inked at 8ish... I don't vote near my home, I've doing it in another neighborhood during the past 25 years or so, and I can say that the line was very short. As a matter of fact, this is the first time I come home so early! (usually it takes me 3 hours or more).

    I saw like 5 people wearing red hats and t shirts -venezuela es de todos logo included!- and the naZIonal guards did not even looked at them.

    Around 7:30 a group of bikers showed up in the street making noise and began making circles. People were very surprised.. me too. This is the first time I see them in that place, which is not a high profile part of the city, I would say that is low middle class. But not a very stronghold for the reds, I might add.

    The other thing that caught my attention was a large luxury bus that came around 7 am. A couple of ladies wearing beige pocketed vests came down, went into the center for some minutes and boarded the bus again.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Ya moje el chiquito!

    Big crowds in my voting center in Barquisimeto East. A little slowdown with the "captahuella", but all is going smoothly.

    But before I voted, a top PSUV guy went to vote, bypassing everyone in line, with support of the military and a VTV crew. The whole center boo him loudly.

    The voting was easy. Then I went home. My mother voted in another center and it was a little slower.
    Barquisimeto East is voting in masse.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Milonga11:51 AM

    Thank you for the updates. As you are well aware, the whole world is anxiously awaiting the results of this election, and although you have managed to throw a bucket of cold iced water over our heads, we still hope for the best. Although no red points gave me the idea that the result has already been rigged, so why bother? Don´t trust voting machines at all! In this link "Google Live #26S" you can follow twits live...

    ReplyDelete
  8. snook7212:21 PM

    First sign of any complaints:

    http://www.eluniversal.com/2010/09/26/en_pol_esp_miranda-state-govern_26A4521331.shtml

    ReplyDelete
  9. I just came back home from voting. It took me about one hour to vote, my line was slower than the others. The president of my table wasted a lot of time explaining others how to vote; I can't understand how's possible that people still don't know how many times they have to vote and how... I think the abstention is low in my center, the page where I signed there was only one signature left. (I vote at a traditional opposition stronghold, east side of Caracas).

    ReplyDelete
  10. Streets are quiet in Margarita, more so than normal for a Sunday in low season. I passed by two voting centers this morning and both were very busy with long lines to vote.

    I came back home and chatted with the security guard at my building. I know him to be for the Opposition. I asked him he was going to vote, and he told me he couldn't because his shift is 6:00am to 6:00pm. So, I organized one of my neighbors to cover his watch and I drove him to his voting center... 45 minutes there, 20 minutes to vote, and 45 minutes back. I was happy to do it, as I can't vote and it gave me an opportunity to add the vote that I can't.

    I have seen the PSUV toldas near the voting centers, but they are small and poorly attended.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Anonymous3:01 PM

    I am the anonymous who told you a couple of days ago not to lose heart. You are seeing what I implied.

    I hope you followed my lead and filled your frigde with beer. You'll need it.

    ReplyDelete
  12. optimist anonymous

    salga sapo, salga rana, i have a nice bottle of cava in my fridge and we are opining it at 6 PM, to be in the mood or anesthetized by the time Tibisay comes up on screen.

    ReplyDelete
  13. snook723:20 PM

    Im a little worried with the absence of the usual red shirt troops. Seems like all other elections they were more visible and more active.

    Could this be a good sign or a bad one? Do they know something we don't.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Can't go wrong with Cava, Daniel.

    ReplyDelete
  15. snook724:49 PM

    Daniel....

    I will join you at 6 pm with a glass of Johnie Walker...my usual for Sundays to take the anxiety of a busy week ahead.

    I hope it will be for a celebration not to drown tears! Regardless tomorrow is a new day and we will always be hopeful and keep going on!

    ReplyDelete
  16. According to Noticias24, Mario Isea said “No hay necesidad para dar un golpe de estado, o una invasión (…) la Constitución contiene los mecanismos para “refundar al país en caso de ser necesario”.
    Is he talking about their plans in the case the opposition wins by a lot. And why is he bringing this up?

    ReplyDelete
  17. Island Canuck6:23 PM

    Hey Roy, 3 brownie points for trying to save our life here.

    Hopefully the info that I'm receiving is correct & I can stay here a few more years.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Carlos A6:34 PM

    Daniel, congrats on your blog, I've been a long time follower since emigrated to Canada.

    Anyways, talking to family and friends in Maracaibo, the atmosphere is very joyful as they stated. Using their own words, it seems that "la maquinaria roja" was overshadowed by the opposition even on "chavismo" strongholds...just a couple of hours and we will know better but regardless of the results, today Venezuela is taking a step forward towards the reform the country needs.
    I raise my black label on the rocks glass to all of you…felicitaciones!...cheers

    ReplyDelete
  19. Canuck,

    I got a text message (four actually) that have exit poll data for the all states. I don't want to transcribe it and post it, because I really don't know what the source is. However, it looked reasonable and quite positive for the MUD.

    However, it is certain that the Opposition has had an exceptional turnout today and the PSUV not so much.

    However, there will be no popping of corks in this house until the results are published.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Great work, Daniel! I've been lurking here, at Devil's Excrement and elsewhere all day and look forward to seeing the results.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Wife voted in the Libertador in Merida, Merida. The lines were none existant, it was 2pm when she voted. They had 65% of their registered voters vote, they didn't know how that compared with 2008 or 2009.

    We then picked up another car full of people and took them to vote in Ejido, which is far more chavista. We saw a lot of chavistas outside. Our last drop was, our third car was at 5:45. They came out at 6:00. But Chavistas were telling them to keep it open and they brought 2 others in that were around 5 past 6.

    A friend of my wife is going out with a Chavista who was traveling with the governor of Merida. At 4pm she spoke to him briefly and he said that they (PSUV) had won 3 out of the 4 districts. I'm not sure if it was just bravado or if there was any truth to it. We'll see tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  22. khyber

    in merida i give at least 2 seats for chavismo so the governor might not habe been bragging. the thrird one is a possible seat but a difficult one.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Yah Daniel, I remember reading your review. Ejido was the one that he seemed to think PSUV won. To be honest with the number of red shirts and their supporters in the two voting stations I took people to to vote, I believe that they have won it or it was very very close.

    I'm leaning towards they've won it, to be honest, and believe that they got 3 out of 4 myself. Hoping it is not the case though.

    That said the oposition in the area is garbage to be honest. I remember in Canada, candidates or their representatives that were well aware of the issues at hand coming to your house to talk with you to try and gain your vote. No one has seen any sign of this here. We got people from UNT at our building but we are in Merida not Ejido. If your not going to work for it, you simply don't deserve it.

    ReplyDelete
  24. I just heard from a contact in Estado de Bolivar and they said Andrés Velásquez has won, which is better than Caracas Chronicles' worksheet projected. They also said the opposition swept Miranda but this could be rumor more than anything else.

    ReplyDelete
  25. snook728:26 PM

    Daniel,

    What time are the official results supposed to be broadcast? Was there a set time frame or at their leisure?

    ReplyDelete
  26. A friend that was working one of the tables in Ejido said that in his table the opposition won by a little more then 5%, so maybe perceptions were off.

    Maybe Chavistas that voted decided to stay, while opposition voters came and left.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Anton9:02 PM

    http://operamundi.uol.com.br/noticias_ver.php?idConteudo=6597 there is something you probably don't want to see in that link (legal to post?)

    ReplyDelete
  28. Anonymous9:46 PM

    Daniel, thanks again for helping us keep our heads up. I have been back and forth between your and Miquel's blogs. We are way up in the jungle and our sat internet is our only contact with news and such, so thanks for all you do. We are starting to get a bit optimistic. This might be the year!

    ReplyDelete
  29. snook729:56 PM

    So much for the most sophisticated voting system in the hemisphere. 3 hrs after the polls closed and still nothing yet. They know already..this is f@#@#$unbelievable.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Anonymous10:41 PM

    Just a gut feeling, but the longer it takes to announce the results,the better for the opposition

    ReplyDelete
  31. snook7210:44 PM

    I agree with anonymous, but that also means that they would be trying to spin this thing.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Charly10:52 PM

    Gee Daniel, you walk the dog at 10PM. Do you really live in Venezuela or are you putting us on?

    ReplyDelete
  33. Charly11:06 PM

    Not a beep from the Chavistas next door, they generally celebrate in the most scandalous ways. What is going on?

    ReplyDelete
  34. snook7211:15 PM

    A quote from El Universal:

    Tibisay Lucena, the president of the National Electoral Council, said that only five polling stations had to use manual voting because the automated election system worked "perfectly."

    Perfectly!!!! What a crock of S#$%

    Why no results yet then.

    ReplyDelete
  35. charly

    gated community.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Wow, two minutes after Caracas Chronicles web site posts a comment that the opposition won 52% of the vote, the web site is off-line with a "500 - Internal Server Error". Hmmm..

    ReplyDelete
  37. Andy, I don't think it's due to that. They have been suffering problems all day with errors from what I've seen.

    Anyone know why Commando PSUV is empty when globovision shows it?

    ReplyDelete
  38. Caracas Chronicles' is an epic failure, only comparable to the failure of the CNE.

    However, nothing will damage the sweet smell of success we have tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Anonymous1:18 AM

    About an hor ago, Ravell twitted this:

    Recuerden este numero ¨58¨.

    (Remember this number "58")

    I'm pretty sure he wasn't talking about the number of seats for the MUD...

    ReplyDelete
  40. Caracas Chronicles still down.

    This is just beyond tolerable.

    CNE will pass to history tonight as the definition of failure.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Do you have the final count Daniel?

    ReplyDelete

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