Friday, February 17, 2012

The 2012 primary results: part 1, the scenery

Last night I got my hands on the actual numerical results and there is a lot to be written on that.  The more so that the ambiguity of many of these results offer so many interpretations....  See, the main salient feature is that the Venezuelan opposition voter has become a master at cross voting whereas the chavista voter punches whatever hole it is asked to do.  Let me give you a glaring example starting with my home state of Yaracuy:

PJ Capriles 27.583 votes
PJ governor 16.206
PJ mayor San Felipe 3.356

On the other hand

UNT/other Perez 16.206
Other "other" prez 1.868
Convergnecia governor 35.339
Convergencia SF mayor 3.832
Other SF mayor  2.754

Clearly, Capriles had zero coattails, or rather his coattails were not enough to compensate the bad impression that Primero Justicia left in the state after 2008 when it was the main responsible agent of the total loss of the state to chavismo.  We remembered and we were not ready to reward PJ whatsoever.

This example illustrate the different points that need to be analyzed out of the real numbers.  Right now, not only there is the actual coattails effect, but we can also look at other type of cross over voting, at the participation by region (5.3% in Delta Amacuro to, say, 24,9% in Miranda), at the surprising surge of Voluntad Popular considering that 2 years ago it did not exist and that its coattail maker withdrew 2 weeks before the vote, at the scores of PJ in some key areas, at a certain resilience of AD and Copei, etc, etc...  a few short posts over the days ahead as time allows me.

8 comments:

  1. People are thinking before they are voting? Blimey days!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Looking forward to your posts Daniel. IMHO you always present the most comprehensive and in-depth analysis of electoral results.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Juan Cristobal9:18 PM

      I'm trying not to take that personally, Bruni. ;)

      Delete
    2. Boludo Tejano11:30 AM

      The narratives of the VenBlogs will be driven by the intense competition for the market share of the bonanza generated by VenBlog advertising revenue. :)

      Danie, your robot-fighting words are too damned long. Please shorten them. That is not said with tongue in cheek, in contrast to the above.

      Delete
    3. Boludo,

      What exactly are " robot fighting words " ?

      Delete
    4. 1979 Boat People11:23 PM

      YES...YES, I am totally agree with Boludo Tejano that the robot fighting words are just too LONG and ....HARD.

      Delete
  3. Boludo Tejano11:24 AM

    From Jackson Diehl at the WaPo: :Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez faces an uprising at the ballot box.

    Here is an excerpt, but the whole article is worth reading.

    Chavez has responded by importing the rhetoric of the Holocaust-denying Ahmadinejad, whom he recently welcomed to Caracas. He has tried to seize the ballot papers from the opposition primary, probably in order to identify and punish those who participated; such an operation targeted signers of a 2004 recall petition.

    Meanwhile he is pouring borrowed money into the economy in a frantic effort to buy back support. The government budget calls for a 46 percent increase in spending this year. The state oil company borrowed $17.5 billion last year and is expected to sell another $12 billion to $15 billion in bonds. There is also a $30 billion credit line from China, to be paid back with discounted oil sometime in the future.



    Among the points of the article: the anti-Semitic ravings in response to Capriles, the moderate tone of Capriles as showing a change in the approach of the oppo in addition to a marked contrast to Thugo, for Thugo October may be all that matters.

    ReplyDelete
  4. 1979 Boat People11:28 AM

    OT:

    Kepler,

    For some reasons, i could not add the transaltion to the old post so i do it in this post instead.

    Please see the translation from Ms. BM below:

    "== Chính sách ==
    Capriles đã lấy giáo dục làm tiêu điểm trong chiến dịch của mình. Bang Miranda do ông làm thống đốc là vùng duy nhất ở Venezuela tham gia chương trình PISA"

    ReplyDelete

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