Monday, September 24, 2012

Datanalisis as an evil empire metaphore

Well, Datanalisis last poll before the elections came out today, though not yet from direct source. Apparently Chavez is still leading by 10 points.  Unfortunately there are two things wrong with it: the undecided number is still too high for comfort and, well, the poll is one month old in its sampling. That is, pre-Amuay and the different events of this September. Source 1 and source 2.


Readers will remember that recently I was wondering about the inconsistencies of Datanalisis, putting Capriles dramatically ahead in his home state of Miranda while trashing him nation wide. On mere political sense their conclusions and results do not make sense.  Such a result, a 10% nationwide lead, requires that Chavez wins basically all states but Miranda. If anyone thinks that Chavez will carry at least 3 of these 4, Zulia, Nueva Esparta, Carabobo and Tachira, then we live in two different countries. NOTE: I am not rejecting the notion that Chavez may win, I am saying he is not going to win by 10 points.

Even if Chavez were to win in 3 of the four states above, could he win by more than a 5 point spread? Where else is he going to find the votes to make it 10% nation wide if he lost Miranda and will not have comfortable margins in Caracas, Lara and Anzoategui?

There come a time when we must wonder how come there is still such a discrepancy between polls. One side has to be wrong, big time. But then again one side may not be playing cool. I am not implying that Datanalisis is sold out to Chavez, but I hate to have to report the rumor that I received from two independent sources that some pollpeople are playing a Chavez victory to buy cheap Venezuelan debt hoping that an eventual victory of Capriles would send the stock up and allow them to make a killing. Maybe Datanalisis is not involved, maybe it is, but I think that it is quite likely that pollsters like Hinterlaces are. Or are getting paid directly by chavismo.

Personally I stick with my current prediction of Capriles by 400K. That is a 51 to 49, edging the 52 to 48 depending of abstention. Right now I am already tempted to increase this but I am waiting a further week for my next state table trend.  And today I am comforted in this. Chavez did manage finally a rather good rally in Portuguesa, a state that I have given to him handsomely. But Capriles did manage a very serious, if smaller, rally. However that rally was in Barinas state, Chavez home state. That is, anyone attending a Capriles meeting in Barinas city, is equal to two attending Chavez in Portuguesa.

Ergo ligantur .


5 comments:

  1. It is so good to come here after reading Caracas Chronicles! VN&V is like manzanilla para mis nervios!

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  2. Anonymous8:40 AM

    I'm betting 65% for Chavez. Many more registered voters than last time, and the 3 new mega-misiones (houses, pensions and allowments) will fill up voting centers with the whole cross-section of society.

    Of course, if you fail to appreciate the value of these and all the other social missions, it's much easier to believe that Capriles can cause an upset.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Except that you need to discount the people who have been murdered and those who have left the country.

      Yes, I fail to appreciate that a country prefers to receive a cheap chinese washer than to have constant running water at home. Call me crazy.....

      Delete
  3. Wow! Steal the elections and stay in power.

    I can hardly imagine why people can even talk about Chavez winning.In order to win you must first have freedom of speech, honest voting registration, a lack of voter intimidation and an atmosphere free of strong group pressure.No matter what the damn polls say, and no matter what the people say, I know in my mind and heart that Chavez lost.

    If people want to talk about his winning just because he is able achieve a number, and not because of the honesty of this number, then I suppose they will get what the are asking for.firepigette

    ReplyDelete

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