Datanalisis used to be a respected pollster. But lately one has to wonder. It is not that they are one of the last "serious" pollster to still give Chavez a solid lead. Why not? But it is their contradictions. For example yesterday they published a poll for Miranda state, the home state of Capriles, giving him a whopping 16% lead. But elsewhere they are still giving Chavez a 13% (1). Is this coherent?
the table I published on September 17 and put the last column in a scenario accommodating the numbers of Datanalisis according to my hypothesis. That is, I started increasing the Chavez votes here and there, keeping up still a certain logic, keeping some states more chavista and some states less.
Well, giving less than 16% advantage to Capriles in Miranda and not even 5% nationwide to Chavez, I already get a rather ridiculous table. Imagine what would happen if I give Capriles 16 and Chavez at least 8..... (2)
Of course, I could have reviewed my initial starting assumptions, increase voter participation, etc, etc, and create perhaps a more plausible scenario. But I think my point is clear: there is something wrong in Datanalisis approach and they need to come out clear or risk losing their reputation in barely two weeks.
1) I add this link to Entorno Inteligente on the datanilis result. It is exactly the same as the one link above except that now the redaction is pro Chavez, shamefully. "El candidato de la patria". Clearly, for publishing two versions of the same data, either they are sold out to Chavez or not that "inteligente"
2) I stopped when I reached the results of the table. I had to give Zulia, Lara and Carabobo to Chavez to get this result. Trying to reach a 13% for Chavez nation wide would have required that I give 5% lead in these three states. Now, considering it all, does anyone at this point believe that Chavez is going to carry these three states by at least 5 points in each? If so, well, you are even more deluded than Jorge Rodriguez. Please, note that yours truly has not given 10% to Capriles in Miranda while Datanalisis happily gives him up to 16%. Gimme a break!