Wednesday, September 19, 2012

What are we going to do with Datanalisis?

Datanalisis used to be a respected pollster. But lately one has to wonder.  It is not that they are one of the last "serious" pollster to still give Chavez a solid lead. Why not? But it is their contradictions.  For example yesterday they published a poll for Miranda state, the home state of Capriles, giving him a whopping 16% lead.  But elsewhere they are still giving Chavez a 13% (1). Is this coherent?

My short answer is no. My long answer is on the table in the right. I have taken the table I published on September 17 and put the last column in a scenario accommodating the numbers of Datanalisis according to my hypothesis. That is, I started increasing the Chavez votes here and there, keeping up still a certain logic, keeping some states more chavista and some states less.

Well, giving less than 16% advantage to Capriles in Miranda and not even 5% nationwide to Chavez, I already get a rather ridiculous table.  Imagine what would happen if I give Capriles 16 and Chavez at least 8..... (2)

Of course, I could have reviewed my initial starting assumptions, increase voter participation, etc, etc, and create perhaps a more plausible scenario. But I think my point is clear: there is something wrong in Datanalisis approach and they need to come out clear or risk losing their reputation in barely two weeks.

1) I add this link to Entorno Inteligente on the datanilis result.  It is exactly the same as the one link above except that now the redaction is pro Chavez, shamefully. "El candidato de la patria". Clearly, for publishing two versions of the same data, either they are sold out to Chavez or not that "inteligente"

2) I stopped when I reached the results of the table. I had to give Zulia, Lara and Carabobo to Chavez to get this result. Trying to reach a 13% for Chavez nation wide would have required that I give 5% lead in these three states. Now, considering it all, does anyone at this point believe that Chavez is going to carry these three states by at least 5 points in each? If so, well, you are even more deluded than Jorge Rodriguez. Please, note that yours truly has not given 10% to Capriles in Miranda while Datanalisis happily gives him up to 16%. Gimme a break!

22 comments:

  1. Island Canuck12:57 PM

    Daniel, all you have to do is look at the numbers for Nueva Esparta to know that the poll is cooked.

    To give Chavez a 1.6% advantage is to ignore all the history here. He has never won here. Nueva Esparta is at least a 60% for Capriles in 2012 as you showed in your first table.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree with you of course. However do not forget that I am conservative and that I include local lore. For example in Margarita I drop my numbers because 1) Morel has been for too long around and 2) the regime has brought people in, like the many invasions of Juangriego.

      Certainly capriles will win there but the high margin may be or may not be there.

      Delete
    2. Also those are my nincompoopy numbers. Matanalisis is only Miranda and nation wide. But to bring in a scenario for capriles I need to make it a tie in margarita

      Delete
  2. Pixar1:42 PM

    Como diria Clinton... Arithmetic! No pela.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous3:02 PM

    I've seen several tweets today along the lines of "there aren't any undecided left", some of them generated around García Banchs' FORO2013. Can it be that LVL chose to desempacar his "undecided" so soon? Santos' meeting with Capriles is making a lot of people very nervous.

    I bet we'll see lots of packing too: "Hay un culillo"

    Maria

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous3:16 PM

    OT: a random thought occurred to me: how is Chavez himself going to vote on Oct 7? And I mean, is he going to WALK all the way to the voting machine (by himself) and cast his vote? Is the CNE going to move the machines to the outside (similar to when he registered as candidate) so he doesn't have to walk?

    A big part of Chavez's election-day strategy has always been to vote early and in cadena, making a completely illegal political speech while doing so, that gets repeated all day by the government channels. But when was the last time he was seen walking by himself? Can he even move more than a few paces without looking like he's about to keel over and die? They can't use special effects to make it look like he voted normally and he cannot cancel his appearance like he's doing with the rallies these days. They might try to pump him so full of drugs that he could fly, but it'd be so obvious they can't possibly let that be shown live on TV. They can't delay his appearance either. He HAS to vote early or his supporters will wonder if he's already dead or left the country. But I don't think there's a way for him to pull it off.

    Being childishly optimistic, my guess is that what Chavez does on Oct 7 will make him lose a million more votes than he's already lost.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I don't believe much in polls especially in Venezuela however, isn't it common for Polling companies to " exaggerate certain things" until the last 2 weeks when suddenly they change so as not to lose their reputations?

    There is also plenty of time left for emotional impacts to change numbers.

    I somehow have no doubt in my mind that Chavez is losing,people- wise and by a wide margin.Where I feel uncertain is in what will he do about it, and what will the opposition do if he creates another " win"

    -firepigette

    ReplyDelete
  6. You shouldn't believe polls anywhere. I saw a Gallup (supposedly respected pollster) that had Romney up 15% among independents and still losing. That makes no sense. The internals showed they had weighted the voting in favor of Democrats by about 9-10% even though there are now more registered as Republicans than Democrats, and they are obviously more motivated this year.
    ....

    I bet the same thing happens everywhere. The people doing the polling have their own political agenda, like the MSM in the US which seems to be run out of the Oval Office these days. Something Venezuelans are very familiar with I bet.

    .....

    I think Chavez loses by a considerable and obvious margin but I also don't think that Chavez' government will admit it. I see them trying to embargo the election results and not release them.

    ReplyDelete
  7. margareth4:45 PM

    voting machines are not reliable!!!

    ReplyDelete
  8. margareth5:46 PM

    Sorry Daniel, I should have written more. Since a few weeks I was thinking about it. In Venezuela they use voting machines, and I am afraid they will be hacked....This means Chavez wins the election. They will try everything to win.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Margareth

      Do not believe everything you read. According to Leopold the machines are OK. At any rate, if one wants to scream "fraud" one has to go and vote no matter the conditions. Otherwise they will not even need to commit fraud.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous6:24 PM

      Machines are not hackable because of the in site audits once the poll is closed. If we have the witneses in place we will know the actual result. Everything else is just the regime's manipulation to make you believe everything is lost and dont vote/vote for them

      Delete
  9. Some people say our best friends are really our enemies because they can teach us so much, but in this case I find it hard to figure out what Carter can teach me. He seems to hate both the US and Venezuela.

    Moral of the story anyone?

    http://twitchy.com/2012/09/18/jimmy-carter-praises-venezuelan-electoral-process-bashes-u-s/


    "Thank goodness we have dreamers like Jimmy who will work tirelessly to bring us closer to Hugo Chavez’s voter utopia."


    firepigette

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anonymous12:06 AM

    por dios, la ultima vez q el chavismo gano en zulia, fue en el 2006 (hace 6 anos), y gano por unos cuestionados 35.000 votos o algo así, mas o menos 2-3%.. desde entonces en cada elección la oposición ha ganado cada vez con mayor porcentaje sobre el chavismo y ahora viene la loca fuerte esa a decir que chavez, después de mas de 5 derrotas en el estado, cuando la diferencia en las ultimas elecciones estaban cerca de 200.000 votos a favor de la oposición, con las multas, los apagones, la escasez, la inseguridad, etc... el tipo va a lograr EL MAYOR MARGEN DE VICTORIA de su vida en el zulia! por dios!
    Yo creo q ya no se le debería prestar mas atención a la amanerada, es mas que obvio q la reina se vendió...
    y por cierto me atrevo a predecir que,el mayor margen de victoria, mas que miranda, tachira etc... y que en lara, si no gana chavez, se viene un empate... solo hay que visitar ese estado para darse cuenta que ese fulano anti chavismo extremo no es mas que el resultado a la inversa y en sentido contrario por igual, de lo que los chavistas (como el henry) nos tienen acostumbrado.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Por favor respete. Que alguien le parezca loca no tiene nada que ver con la credibilidad de esa persona.

      Gracias de antemano.

      Delete
    2. En cuanto al Zulia se da por descontado que Capriles gana. Aquí utilizo casos hipotéticos para demostrar la incoherencia de Datanalisis. Personalmente yo no me atrevería a decir cual encuesta es buena o mala antes del 7-O. Aunque ciertamente es valido cuestinarlas para darle un chance a que se expliquen.

      Delete
  11. margareth8:14 AM

    In this computer/internet age hardly anybody is "Anonymous"

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous1:41 PM

    Look at this, Dani boy.

    Now they are saying we are making chavismo eat the dust in LARA and by landslide! Come on, obviously they are tricking the all thing!

    http://es.scribd.com/doc/106465281/Segun-encuesta-de-Datanalisis-Capriles-gana-en-Miranda-y-en-Lara

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dani boy? I am sorry but I have no recollection of you and I herding cattle together.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous6:45 PM

      Sorry, I thought it was the way Americans do it treat each other when they want to establish a confident relationship.

      Delete
    3. no harm done but if you try that at least do not sign as "anonymous", that is a really put off for me. make up a friendly nickname before you call me dani boy :)

      Delete

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