Monday, September 17, 2012

State electoral trends + cheap poll

For the fun of it I am guessing the difference vote between Capriles and Chavez, at the states level.

It starts at my initial predictions of late August, a first assessment after Amuay and Cúpira early September and a new one after the recent attempts at chavismo to break up the opposition union.  Of course, all very conservative as explained previously, even though Capriles is talking 1 million already..

I am giving now Capriles winning with almost 400,000 more than Chavez. In the table the second column is the number of registered voters, as far as I know, in hundred K. (Apure has 292,000 voters, rounding the number).

Red, chavista, blue opposition, when the advance I give is equal to 5% at least of the total voters in a given state. I think that when one's lead is 5% of the registered voters that state can be considered safe. No? In light blue or light red shades when the result is between 5 and 0%. Leaning Capriles or Chavez, so to speak. Click to enlarge.

I also started a poll for fun. Since obviously Capriles will win in this blog (unless chavistas tweet to come and vote, which will be good since they will be exposed to a different train of thoughts) I am more interested to know through which card you will vote for Capriles.
In Venezuela, due to our tradition of illiteracy, we still vote for a color or the face of the guy running.  That is why there are so many faces of Chavez and Capriles. Apparently, we are told by political experts, some people can be lead to think that the more a face appears, the stronger the support.........

I have retained as the significant ones the ones from Primero Justicia, Voluntad Popular, UNT, Unidad (AD, Copei, PVzl...), Avanzada Popular (Falcon, Podemos, PPT) or "other" since there are several other options in the "tarjeton". Since there are so many "Unidad" watch out, the valid one, the one from the MUD, the one that is at the bottom right. Thus I have circled the pics for you not to make a mistake.

PJ = black
VP = orange
UNT = dark blue
Unidad = light blue
Avanzada = red
Other, no circle


  1. Anonymous12:27 PM


    1. not here, in the poll on the right :)

  2. OK. To an American it seems really weird to see the same name listed so many times on a ballot

    1. Explanation added even though North Americans are not supposed to vote. This people is intended for those who vote.

    2. Sorry about that.

  3. registered voters 2012 (in ,000).

    pa no confundir.

    1. Thanks. Will do for next and last trend. Added an explanation for this time around.

  4. Just a bit of a correction: The poll should read "Avanzada Progresista", and also PPT is not among that group, they formed their own "progresista" brand called "Movimiento Progresista de Venezuela" (MPV) in the upper right of the Capriles group. Don't ask me why...

    Hope your predictions comes through, though it's hard for me to see Lara as the most anti-Chavez state.

    1. Thank you but I cannot correct it because I would lose all the votes already cast. The intention was to unify under a single label the left leaning pro Capriles camp, so I went a tad quick here. It really does not matter because I doubt very much that any PPT reads this blog :) But your correction is valid and I should have been more careful.

  5. I am quite surprised to see Henrique's face more times than Hugo's. I'm not the least bit surprised to see that Hugo got not only top billing, but all the primary positions. I am also surprised, but less so, that Henrique ended up with so many together at the bottom. I would have expected a couple of the others in there just to increase the chance of a mistake. The space in the middle is also very strange, as if it's there to break up how many times we see Henrique's face and make it look like fewer parties support him.

    I wonder how old that picture of Hugo is. :) He looks thin.

    Also, on the polls, while all the changes are within margins of error (as if these were normal polls), it's quite intriguing to see that one state has moved slightly to Chavez over the last month, five show no change (max of 0.3%), and the other EIGHTEEN are shifting in Henrique's favor to varying degrees. Positive sign.

    (P.S. for Daniel only - no complaints about the poll from me. :P)

  6. Dr. Faustus10:36 AM

    I've now officially applied for Venezuelan citizenship! You betcha. Er, ah, ....which is the one I 'X' out to get my million dollars?

  7. Why are the polls listed on wikipedia so inconsistent?

    This is so bizare...


    1. Tom

      The regime has people on payroll to edit anything on Venezuela in wikipedia. in other words, Venezuela and Wikipedia are not compatible for genuine unbiased information.


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