It starts at my initial predictions of late August, a first assessment after Amuay and Cúpira early September and a new one after the recent attempts at chavismo to break up the opposition union. Of course, all very conservative as explained previously, even though Capriles is talking 1 million already..
I am giving now Capriles winning with almost 400,000 more than Chavez. In the table the second column is the number of registered voters, as far as I know, in hundred K. (Apure has 292,000 voters, rounding the number).
Red, chavista, blue opposition, when the advance I give is equal to 5% at least of the total voters in a given state. I think that when one's lead is 5% of the registered voters that state can be considered safe. No? In light blue or light red shades when the result is between 5 and 0%. Leaning Capriles or Chavez, so to speak. Click to enlarge.
I also started a poll for fun. Since obviously Capriles will win in this blog (unless chavistas tweet to come and vote, which will be good since they will be exposed to a different train of thoughts) I am more interested to know through which card you will vote for Capriles.
In Venezuela, due to our tradition of illiteracy, we still vote for a color or the face of the guy running. That is why there are so many faces of Chavez and Capriles. Apparently, we are told by political experts, some people can be lead to think that the more a face appears, the stronger the support.........
I have retained as the significant ones the ones from Primero Justicia, Voluntad Popular, UNT, Unidad (AD, Copei, PVzl...), Avanzada Popular (Falcon, Podemos, PPT) or "other" since there are several other options in the "tarjeton". Since there are so many "Unidad" watch out, the valid one, the one from the MUD, the one that is at the bottom right. Thus I have circled the pics for you not to make a mistake.
PJ = black
VP = orange
UNT = dark blue
Unidad = light blue
Avanzada = red
Other, no circle