Sunday, March 10, 2013

Why Capriles needs to think about it

Capriles did this tweet a few minutes ago:

where he tells us that his decision will be announced this evening. Why? (1)

Covering all the complexity of the moment will take me the whole day, probably until Capriles announces his decision. So we need to cut to the core.

The first thing we need to understand is the chavismo big problem: Maduro is not a viable candidate.  That is, in a normal election it is doubtful that Maduro would win. The only way he can do it is right now, in an excessively short campaign, without debates, with the body of Chavez paraded around, before the economic crisis develops further. And this is exactly what the CNE has provided obligingly yesterday in yet another mark of the obscene partiality of the electoral umpire towards the regime. (2)

In short we know that the regime will pull all the stops to ensure that Maduro is elected even if he loses.  Why is it doing that? Because as I have often written in this blog, the day chavismo loses the highest, and only real office in the country,  so many people will have to leave the country in a hurry to avoid jail that, well, you got my point....  Simply put, the narco generals,  the narco chavistas, the bolibourgeois nouveau riche, the corrupt military, the corrupt justices, the corrupt X,Y and Z cannot risk it. With Chavez and a modicum of cheating they could make it look genuine, democratic to the outside world; with Maduro they do not think they can and thus the mass scale fraud has started.

What is the opposition to do?  It is in a classical lose/lose situation.

Not going to election, or even with going with a token candidate is accepting the electoral fraud and wait for the country to collapse before having a chance.

Going with Capriles as in last October is a sure repeat of the defeat; and maybe worse because with the high emotional turmoil existing we even risk to "lose" by more as chavismo is already assuming they will get more votes than on October (they will not but they will try to get a higher percentage which is what they really want).

Going with Capriles (or another one) and make a campaign based on fraud accusations against the CNE and Maduro is also a sure loser. Idiots inside the opposition will start again with the "why vote?" meme nonsense. Others idiots will be offended that Capriles does not try to woo chavismo, as if a love song could be heard by a grieving chavismo who wants revenge from the death of their god.

I think the only choice is the last one, a choice that I have advocated long, long ago. It is better to lose on principles than to lose on nothing, and there will be NO BETTER OPPORTUNITY to lose on solid principles on which to rebuild the country when the time comes inevitably than this flash election.

What does this require? Well, to put it mildly, the hours of the Venezuelan Aung San Suu Kyi has come.

First, running in election to "preservar espacios" is right now idiotic. A Maduro regime will turn into a dictatorship for the reasons exposed above and I can assure you that within months the regime will have removed Falcon in Lara and Capriles in Miranda while ensuring that 95% of municipal governments are in its hands. I am sure that Capriles and Falcon know that very, very well.  Thus the election is to preserve democracy at all costs, personal or otherwise.

Second an election to play into the hands of chavismo is useless, we may as well abstain, in the full knowledge that the regime will not be grateful for it. Fascisto/Communism, whatever shade the Maduro regime will take in the end, will not forgive, will not compensate anyone who played into their hands. If you need a cruel recent example, look at William Ojeda, the one that defected back to chavismo last year, still looking like a ghost in chavista functions, una anima en pena. Thus running for the April 14 election is only worth it if we make it a campaign against the CNE, a campaign against chavismo illegality, a campaign to set in public record, in front of the world that this is a dictatorship in the making.

Running an election outside of this mental frame is a waste of time, energy and cash. The only question left is to wonder about whether Capriles and the MUD are delaying their official acceptation to make sure that they can run that sort of campaign.  As long as we do not know that this is the case, there is no need to waste any time in discussing other details: we need first a guiding principle, then we'll see how we forge our way to abide by it.

And who knows? Running on stern principles could well win you the day as a surprise on April 14 as it will be obvious that Maduro has no principle of his own....


1) the tweet on twitter screen says 10:11 AM, I have no idea why the embedded version says another time! But I checked twice so fret not.

2) I would like to add yet another mark of CNE disregard for democracy. The municipal elections scheduled for July have again been postponed!!!  That is, the CNE is able to organize a presidential election in a month but it cannot keep it on track for July elections which are already overdue for years?!?!?!?  The only thing that has mattered for the CNE is the succession of Chavez, and that probably already since 2011 when his disease was obvious for the first time.


  1. I was gonna comment on the time of the tweet... very strange, it's around noon time right now.
    Daniel, I don't envy Capriles' position today. It's like el gallo pelon joke. Whatever decision he takes, he'll be politically ruined.
    I know Maduro will win -and believe me- it's for the best. Que se agarre el chavismo su cacho de agua!
    As for Capriles, he should be the candidate, if not, he'll go down in this story as a coward. Keeping my post with the spanish sayings: si se va para el infierno... que se vaya en carroza.

  2. These remain my basic views on the latest, lamentable Venezuelan circus..

  3. The announcement by Diego Molero Bellavia that the Army will be working to elect Maduro could be a perfect framing device. "We will have an uphill battle with the Army openly helping Maduro in a ridiculously short campaign" allows for constant stress on the unconstitutional and undemocratic nature of this government. It allows for a truth-speaking campaign not directed at convincing soft Chavistas, whose defection is a year or so away.

  4. Capriles must accept. He is now in the position that he loses more by not accepting the challenge.

    My question to the opposition is why are they now unprepared? Didn't they know this was coming?

    1. I don't think they are unprepared, I beleive they are playing the chavistas anxiety that could lead them to make mistakes that the opposition could benefit from. Like in war movies, the winners are always saying "hold it, hold it..." :-)

      Another thing that could throw off the chavista machinery would be to run with another candidte that is not Capriles. I believe they won't be prepared for that.

    2. Bruni

      You cannot be prepared for such a situation.

      The opposition is as prepared as it can be under the circumstances. Read my post again.

  5. Charly1:41 PM

    Only radical opposition, the one that does not negotiate with the regime, the one JVR is scarred of for its destabilization potential as he states over and over again in his writings, has a chance to win in the long run. The rest, especially the MUD plays in the hands of Fidel as the loyal opposition. White hand students, Medina and Diego Arria are showing the way, no violence, but no quarter either.

  6. Charly, the radical opposition had its chance to get to power and failed. Not only failed, we are still paying for that.

    What we need is an intelligent opposition. People that understand politics and care more for the country than for themselves. When we get those two together, then we will have a chance to recuperate the country.

    1. Bruni

      Tienes razón pero vas presa.

      What people do not seem to understand, from idiots like Pedro Pablo Fernandez to the radicals slash and burn is that THIS IS NOT AN AVERAGE ELECTION. Read again my post.

  7. I agree. Participate in elections but under protest. Let it be clear to the population that we are in this knowing the government will focus all the nation's economic resources and armed forces towards winning the elections.

  8. Island Canuck3:31 PM

    GloboVision sold to the government??

    Nails in the coffin?

    1. At this point globo is the least of our problems.


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