Monday, March 17, 2014

The political moment

Imposed distractions notwithstanding I have not forgotten to try to follow what is going on politically.  Here is my quick take, for whatever it is worth.

The regime troubles are deepening even if on the outside it seems to have scored a few points. After all, even Assad has good days and some say that he will win the civil war but will never be able to run solidly again over all of the country. Maduro is no Assad but I think he secretly wishes he were. 

Maduro has an image problem and that one is not improving. I suggest that you start comparing the images of Saturday fascist military meeting of chavismo at Los Proceres and the ones I took personally Sunday at El Cafetal. Clearly the support of Maduro is in the army, the repressors, the corrupts. The chavista hoi polloi needs to be dragged to pro Maduro marches, or at least fed and paid. The march I attended Sunday was convoked with less than 24 hours notice, had no free food or transport for attendees and was formed by El Pueblo. Admittedly El Pueblo in El Cafetal is not the same as El Pueblo in Catia but the one in El Cafetal is enthusiastic, the one in Catia thinks that voting for Maduro was well enough and that now he should dig himself out of the mess he buried himself. I dare the regime to call for a 2 mile march with 24 hours notice without forcing anyone to attend, without providing any freebie.  

Maduro's problem are getting worse. The economic news are catastrophic. Inflation keeps hovering at 60% and the scarcity index is now reaching 1 in 2. That is, you go to the store to buy 2 basic staples and chances are that you will find only one. The launching of a ration card is going to come back to bite chavismo in the ass real soon when the good El Pueblo will realize that having a new piece of plastic in hand does not fill up the shelves with Harina P.A.N. Black market through buhoneros will strive even more once the excluded of the ration card (yours truly) have also to go to buhoneros to eat.

Amazingly in his incoherence Maduro realizes he needs help. So he names Diosdado Cabello to "negotiate" a rapprochement with the guys that have plenty of cheap food: the US of A. Why chose Diosdado who is one of the most corrupt people Venezuela ever nurtured is beyond comprehension. I am pretty sure that the US has quite a file on the guy, from covering up narco activities to good ole money laundering. Then again maybe Cabello wants to sell Maduro for a forgiveness on how he got his own silver coins. Thinking of it, Cabello is now forging documents to attack anyone he feels like attacking. From here to selling folks...

The basic problem here is that if Maduro and the Cubans that control him feel that someone wants to kick them out but they are apparently autistic in that they are unable to understand why people are upset. They thus persist in gimmicks that do not work, even with their own followers. When you cannot understand why the other guy hates you there is no way you can find an appropriate response. Then you are left with violence and weaponry and retaking Plaza Altamira to which you bring your own cleaning squad, making your followers wonder how come you do not use that squad to clean up chavista areas.

So yes, violence and repression keep together a regime that knows surrendering power peacefully is not an option if they want to avoid jail. but me thinks that implosion not only cannot be ruled out at all, but it is likely to happen this year.

And who will cause the implosion? Marches and guarimbas are all fine and dandy and essential but they are not enough. Suddenly favorable poll numbers are good but not enough. To begin with the opposition needs to find a common voice, a credible leadership. And it has not. The one that could do so is in jail. The woman that could do so works alone. The guy that missed his chance is not aware of it and now tries to get the leadership after having criticized those that made possible that wave of genuine popular anger.

Lopez in jail plays the Mandela card, and with some success as people trying to visit  him are roughed up. Maria Corina got an infamous video that showed to the world that chavismo has been able to create fascist women that will find nice jobs in concentration camps when the regime opens them. And Capriles confesses that through contacts he is going to debate with Maduro for the sake of exposing the character. Really? Why, we all already know he is a failure, even the bulk of chavismo is ready to admit it and switch to a better chavista prospect.

I am no one to give advice (well, I do it all the time) but let me throw a suggestion here for the opposition. Gather a meeting with, say three students, 3 MUD members, half a dozen of politicians that represent something and a few guests for trade unions to NGO. Then write a "negotiation" document that will include the following:

- Liberation of all political prisoners, or at least sending them home without permission to go out. The US will be glad to provide ankle bracelets.

- Withdrawal of all public places and let the neighbors and mayors sort it out as to allowing people to transit.

- Rein in the colectivos. If you cannot disarm them at least announce the the Nazional Guard will shoot them if they move out of their lairs.

- Demand that before any negotiation the regime has to respect the Constitution in the following points:
  • Return all constitutional prerogative to all governors and mayors, regardless of their political bent.
  • Stop the comunas or at least allow those of the opposition to be legally registered and able to compete with the chavista ones
  • Stop the pseudo constitutional bullshit and make a political pact where you give outright 2 CNE chairs to opposition candidates, 10 judges at the TSJ. This is where true dialogue will start, when these people will be all forced to work together.
  • Start fighting corruption by naming a real comptroller.
Tell the regime that unless these are not met then there is no point in talking to them. They can deal alone with the economic and political crisis ahead, it is their baby. The opposition has no intention to help them and even less of sharing the blame least the regime is willing to give something significant in exchange. I am convinced at this point that stonewalling the regime will hasten its demise or at least an internal replacement of Maduro which will be the beginning of the end for chavismo.  We ALL know that, it is a matter to have the courage in both camps to proceed.




16 comments:

  1. Anonymous3:18 PM

    Today in Puerto Ordaz, not much discussion taking place!

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/117563968@N08/sets/72157642494816384/

    Limey

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous5:13 PM

    Thoughts on Sicad 2 Daniel? Currency has already dropped from the peak 20%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sicad2 is B.S.

      The parallel market has dropped because it is tax time and you can pay them cheaply by exchanging a few bucks for a lot of bs. This is the only reason why anyone would part with green backs. Mark my word, by May 1 it is back up to at least 80, assuming sicad2 is delivering a quarter of its promise.

      Delete
  3. Anonymous5:48 PM

    Hi Daniel, long-time reader. I read the main Venezuelan blogs and I think yours has the most compelling writing. That said, I wish you (and opposition leadership) were a little more nuanced when referring to Cubans. Cuban exiles and even some dissidents in Cubans are ardent supporters of the Venezuelan people and it would be a shame to group them into what could be referred to as Castro-Communistas or Oficialistas-Cubanos. Also, find a term other than "autistic" - it can be offensive and not very descriptive. Thanks again for you consistent writing and critical viewpoints.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are right but this entry was also written sort of sarcastically. Also it includes a link where I do mention the protest march that is planned in April in Cuba! Maybe I should have repeated it.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous8:47 PM

      Tongue in cheek ...
      Canadá y Venezuela han logrado establecer una relación dinámica, así como sólidos vínculos, en el ámbito comercial, político, académico, cultural y en lo relativo al desarrollo social.

      Aviso Importante :

      La sección de Visas e Inmigración de la Embajada de Canadá en Caracas, Venezuela está cerrada y los servicios han sido transferidos a la Embajada de Canadá en la Ciudad de México, México.
      xp

      Delete
    3. Boludo Tejano8:50 PM

      Perhaps because I knew the daughter of Cuban refugees when I was in Venezuela, I interpreted Daniel's polemic against Cubans as one directed at Cuban enablers of Chavismo, not at Cubans in general.

      Delete
  4. Island Canuck6:43 PM

    Air Canada suspends all flights to Venezuela until further notice effective immediately.

    http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2014/03/17/air-canada-suspende-hasta-nuevo-aviso-vuelos-a-caracas/

    Who will be next?
    Rumours floating about AA on Twitter.

    I predict that in a few weeks many will suspend flights until paid which is difficult for the government as they are obviously broke.

    Also Polar has suspended their plant that makes cans for beer, malta, pop, etc. They have no material.

    As Daniel & Miguel have been predicting the worse is yet to come.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. On the airline issue, Maduro painted himself into a corner (he does that a lot) be declaring that any airline that reduces service to Venezuela will be banned and not allowed back in, so long as he is in power (which may not be long).

      I agree that in the next two to three months, the country is going to get far worse, as imports of necessary goods dwindle and prices skyrocket.

      Delete
  5. Anonymous6:46 PM

    Hi Daniel I have two questions:
    1) two or tree weeks ago you wrote that you have enough stock until may...Still have?
    2) I am almost sure That the sicad 2 won´t start until eastern and it won´t last (fully operating) more than one month...what is your take?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1 actually I will not make it to May first

      2 already replied to

      Delete
  6. Daniel for Asesor Político!
    - Rein in the colectivos. If you cannot disarm them at least announce the the Nazional Guard will shoot them if they move out of their lairs.

    Like.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Anonymous9:04 AM

    They will never give up one inch of power...none of the points will be implemented, certainly not all of them...The Regime does not care about the well being of the country...All they care about is keeping their power and destroying ANY opposition. These people will not concede anything....

    ReplyDelete
  8. Ronaldo12:00 PM

    SOS Venezuela needs to be expanded to SOS Cuba.
    Both countries are terrorized by the same dictators.

    I would like to see Venezuelan protestors include the freedom of Cuba as a common goal.
    Free Cuba and the door for freedom in Venezuela will open.

    Attack the Castro's directly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SOS Vzla joining forces with SOS Cuba will not be an easy sell. See, Vzlans know that the average Cuban is not responsible for the Cuban interference in Vzla. But Vzlans are sick and tired of anything tinged with 'Cubanism', moreover during a moment in their history that needs every citizen pushing for the expulsion of that foreign interference in the country.
      Cubans will simply have to show the world that they, too, have the internal fortitude to at least get the protest marches started, in their own backyard. Or so I think.

      Delete
    2. Ronaldo7:28 PM

      syd,
      The issue is that Cubans cannot protest without punishment. The Cuban Ladies in White face harassment and prison every time they go out. News is 100% censored and cleansed before Cuban pueblo hears it. The Castros have killed over 26,000 people to stay in power.

      Delete

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