A way out for Venezuela: the post Duque election effect

The time has come to discuss what could be done about the Venezuelan narko kleptokracy. And the election of Ivan Duque in Colombia today does affect the possible outcomes.

At the Colombian border, with the symbolic barrier, from left to right: ex president Pastrana,
with hat; ex president Uribe, hat in hand;  Marta Lucia Ramirez, the new vice president of
Colombia and on the Venezuelan side Maria Corina Machado.  The A+ list
of the democratic Latin American right. Piñera of Chile is in thought on that picture. May 14.

A way out for Venezuela: it will not be coming from the opposition

At least not as it stands right now.

The disarray of the opposition is simply breathtaking.  And if you read Twitter varied time lines, you will find out that some inside the opposition spend time attacking each other in more virulent ways than they ever attacked chavismo. Though I suspect that chavismo having long stopped reading their own incendiary Twitter replies these oppo radicals had to turn their anger elsewhere. But I digress.

Two oppositions

When dictatorships have nothing left to lose: Machado on the spike

What is more surprising today is in fact that the regime did not jail Maria Corina Machado, when it could have done it exactly as it did with Leopoldo Lopez.  Why?

Maria Corina saliendo del MP. Se le Imputa "conspiración" la pena es de 8 a 16 años de prisión #YoEstoyConMariaCorina pic.twitter.com/5lkkDj1swv
—  MAC_Photography  (@MAC_Photo) December 3, 2014

That tweet shows her leaving the prosecutor office after having been charged with conspiracy, which means that if she were to be found guilty after a trial she would get at the very least 8 years in jail. So, why is she, apparently, going to be tried "in liberty" while the same trial for Leopoldo Lopez is going nowhere, leaving him to languish in jail since February 18 in rather abject conditions? After all, there is no doubt about her being guilty by association with Lopez, as you can see by yourself next as she accompanied closely Leopoldo Lopez the day he was taken by the regime.

Can the Venezuelan opposition MUD recover?

The question is not idle: two of its "major" directors are forcing us to question thoughtfully not only whether the MUD can renew itself or if it has any strategy against the regime, but if its actually intending to fight the regime, amen of being able to understand what is going on in the country. As for its alleged leader, Capriles Radonski, by now I am afraid I am through with him.

Ramon Jose Medina cynical callousness (redundancy of sorts intended)

This happened:



In this video Ramon Jose Medina says that the MUD has no plans to bring out of jail Leopoldo Lopez, that he put himself into that mess, and we assume from his amused, scornful look, that this is not MUD 's problem. You do not need to understand Spanish, just look at his facial expressions. And now he is trying to back track, but it'aint flying and Voluntad Popular, Lopez's party, has demanded his resignation as second secretary of the MUD, which means second in charge after Aveledo. The communique of VP goes as far as suggesting that Medina is in fact collaborating with the regime (1).

It is all smoke in Venezuela

Tonight I am watching the Avila National park, a.k.a, in chavista silly circles as Güaraira Repano without any solid historical evidence to justify such name change, go up in flames.

My view of despair tonight, circa 6:15 PM.

I think it is a true direct metaphor, oximoronic tone intended, of what the country is at tonight.

Irrelevant OAS stresses the bejesus out of Venezuela (and Cuba)

Chavez has spent 15 years, under the direction of Cuba who was excluded from the OAS by Venezuela's initiative, in finding ways to render the Organization of American States irrelevant. For this he supported the election of Insulza as its general secretary, a rare case of a president whose main task is to lower the institution it presides. To make sure there was no surprises for when the day to sustain his dictatorship come, Chavez started targeted programs to secure soft votes, that is, though generous money offerings to weak countries. Hence the ALBA and the archipelago of curious poverty that represent most of the anglo Caribbean.  Add to this countries like Argentina or Brazil who see in the OAS an additional tool to edge out the US influence and grab it for themselves. Thus you get a solid majority which today again acted, this time against Maria Corina Machado.  But it is a Pyrrhic victory, one that does not solve whatsoever Venezuela's image problem and actually worsens the image of the now severely discredited "leadership" of chavismo.

One month ago they jailed Lopez, tonight they are after Machado

Maria Corina Machado knew the moment would come and it came today in such a blatantly fascist way that one is speechless. Well, not for long until they find their way to a keyboard.

Let's start with this picture, full of angst, as Lopez and Machado were attacked one month ago, a few minutes before Lopez would be pushed into a Nazional Guard armored car.  The woman is stressed, is scared but is going forward anyway. A true courage that she has been showing every single day in the last month knowing full well that her turn was coming.

The political moment

Imposed distractions notwithstanding I have not forgotten to try to follow what is going on politically.  Here is my quick take, for whatever it is worth.

Day 5: the Venezuelan spring seeks organization

UPDATED

OK, so my title is a little bit wishful thinking at this time, but we are on our way there: anyone following Twitter accounts from Venezuela will realize that today, at day 5 of the first official protest of February 12 in Caracas that there are more than half a dozen flash points across the country. Of variable sizes for sure but what is remarkable is that they persist. What is more remarkable is that even as I chose February 12 at the start, we should not forget that these protests started a few days earlier in Tachira and Merida before spreading across the country: this is not, it bears repeating, a caprice from Caracas Eastern suburbs inhabitants, this is the expression of a national malaise, like it or not.

Venezuela's opposition inner trouble

The casual observer may think that the opposition is about to collapse, that it has lost unity, that they are not serious, etc.  So as a public service I would like to remind some stuff and bring some constructive speculation, I hope, on some other stuff.

I am the true oppo, you are a fake one, he has no idea what h's doing, we will all sink, aren't they lucky

This week we have Henrique Capriles bitching like a spoiled brat on Twitter contrasting with a Maria Corina Machado muscling in, while Leopoldo Lopez plucks the socialdemocrat daisy.  And yet it all makes perfect sense as Diego Arria Twittergloats.

Como se pelea contra el fascismo

Maria Corina Machado nos dio hoy una clase magistral de como es que se enfrenta al fascismo. En el vídeo que sigue ustedes pueden ver su intervención hace unas horas en la asamblea nacional cuando se volvió a nombrar la misma directiva abusadora del 2013, la que no tuvo reparo en romperle la cara a MCM (Cabello et al.). Si lo que dice MCM ya requiere reciedumbre e inteligencia, lo notable de este momento es que ustedes podrán ver EXACTAMENTE como reaccionan los fascistas cuando se le enrostran las verdades. Miren las tribunas (y la directiva) y observen como reaccionan y verán el chavofascismo en todo su horror. Las palabras de MCM se validaban a penas pronunciadas por esa valerosa mujer. ¡Gran momento!

2013 in review: the year Leopoldo Lopez was man of the year

If I am going to indulge in "end of year" reviews I might go ahead and commit the biggest sin of all, decide who was man of the year in Venezuela.

How to hold an electoral campaign under Venezuela neo-fascism?

For long time readers of this blog the title should not come as a surprise. It has been long that I have rejected the democratic pretense of the regime as well as the one coming from those that still pretend to comment "objectively" on Venezuela. That is those who try to find a fig leaf of democracy, be they foreign journalists, bloggers or actual Venezuelan journos. As far as I am concerned we are in a military regime since at least late 2010, a regime which is turning openly fascist since late 2012.  If you do not agree at least in part with me, then you have been wasting your time reading this blog.

A month and a half to play it out in Venezuela

For some, the local elections of December 8 are the last horizon. Crossing it successfully will mean the end of chavismo, at least as we have known it. For others all will be played as soon as the Enabling Law is published. Some think that a popular uprising is around the corner. Some think that it is all over. All are wrong, on these and other suppositions. That does not make me right because, well, I actually have no position. So, instead of trying to figure out a way out of this mess I should limit myself to try to evaluate the current situation. May the reader think whatever s/he pleases.

The almost daily morning line at Makro San Felipe. It is under the sun, people now carry umbrellas rain or shine.
This a short one. Sometimes it is 4X longer, reaching the main avenue downhill.
It is not the only line in San Felipe, but it is probably the most recurrent because Makro always get some item.

Whatever one thinks, one thing is certain, the next couple of months are decisive. Even if you think all has been played out, the coming weeks will decide the extent of the economic crisis and the extent of the repression we must suffer through 2014.

Maria Corina Machado to the front line?

It has been a good weekend for Maria Corina Machado, if you call notoriety good in times of crisis and repression. Suddenly she is top billing above Capriles in Maduro's paranoia, and she gets two major interviews, one in El Universal but one also in La Nacion of Argentina. And she got two top journalists for that, Roberto Giusti and Hugo Alconada respectively, this last one having become an expert on Venezuelan and Argentinean corruption since the Antonini case of the 800K bucks in a suitcase.

Of course, MCM has never been too far away from the front pages, miscellaneously having her nose broken in the Venezuelan National Assembly while more serious parliaments go out of their way to receive her with all the respect she deserves. Yet we must be surprised that Maduro went out of his way this weekend to suggest that she is the one chosen by the US to replace him by leading an upcoming transition.