Friday, September 11, 2015

Regime gains? Opposition gains? Lopez gains?

The guilty verdict on Leopoldo Lopez was expected though one would have thought that the maximum penalty would not have been decided. At any rate, guilty or free, the decision yesterday by the regime to tell judge Barreiros to condemn Lopez is not going to change much on the events to come. What it does convincingly is marking the moment where the regime stops gingerly crossing over the line between dictatorship and the totalitarian state. Gingerly no more.

Anything but freeing Lopez would not have improved the international regime standing now at junk bond level. Any condemnation, no matter how short the sentence, was equally unacceptable because a guilty verdict on thought crime is unacceptable in civilized world. Any guilty verdict is the clear statement of the regime that politicians will be dealt with through "crime" sentences to ban them from office. Who needs a gulag when a mere sentence disposes of your opponents for a few years in jail and for a life time once out?

So, why is the regime risking such an international condemnation, even though it does not seem to care about that a bit, as witnesses the Colombian border crisis?


Any gain perceived by the regime is strictly internal, safe the historical apologists from Red Ken to the ineffable Eva Golinger. I suppose that now they will be able to state without batting an eye that Lopez is guilty. And it will work to a point. All outside in Venezuela have a sense that justice in Venezuela is not great. But few can grasp how perverted the system is. Thus when a propagandist at Russia Today like Eva Golinger states that Lopez is guilty and has been condemned to 14 years of jail even if you have a doubt about the Venezuelan judicial system you will think that surely Lopez must have done something even if the sentence is overly harsh. A meager compensation when you consider that the Eva Golingers of the world are now quite discredited outside of the few dark caves where they seek refuge.

The "benefits" must be strictly internal, thus. Which may they be?

As an electoral ploy it can only mobilize better the hard core of chavismo. Yesterday a colectivo did attack a peaceful protest resulting with one death through cardiac failure. But the renewed radicalization of the nut wing of chavismo has the advantage at improving the options of the "bring in the vote" machine.  Plain coercion as before has not worked in 2013, now chavismo needs actual threats and ferrying of timorate electors. At best this may help chavismo limit the hemorrhage of votes but it will not help them gain new electors. Attitudes like yesterday castigating civil protests or chanting the hopes that Lopez gets 400 year sentence do not make you new friends.

As a demobilizing tool for the opposition it has a limited use. At best it will scare some opposition leaders that do not want to go to jail, but the bulk knows quite well that they must keep the fight because the slammer is their destiny sooner or later. I think personally that condemning Lopez is in fact an incentive for the opposition voter to be more active. But the Cuban inspired regime applies old recipes in a new world of Twitter.

As a tool to create violence and thus get an excuse to suspend elections is far from certain. So far there is no evidence that the opposition will resort to violence. Lopez himself is calling for peace and electoral activism as the best and fastest way to get out of jail, and annul the unjust sentence.

Clearly I see no real advantage for the regime in condemning Lopez to 14 years. The international commendation has been quite vocal today, faster than usual. Peace still reigns in Venezuela and I do not see much spontaneous chavista celebration...

The only advantage that I can see is internal to chavismo. Someone had to make a show of force to prove to one faction that he is the boss. I, for one, have a hard time imagining that Cubans demanded this from Maduro, or at least with a much shorter sentence. Doing so must be the way to announce that we have entered totalitarianism, officially. The other suspect is Diosdado Cabello who, besides his resentment against anything educated smart and fancy, may have wanted to condemn Lopez to blame this on Maduro.

Whatever it is, those who participated in that show trial have put their names first in the list of those who will need to suffer through a Venezuelan Nuremberg when the day shall come. I do not want to be seen as a poseur by using the N word, but the crimes committed by the regime this recent weeks qualify the holders to a trial at The Hague. Period.

There is only one winner yesterday: Leopoldo Lopez. Write it down.


14 comments:

  1. Anonymous7:27 PM

    Agreed. Not only is Leopoldo going to eventually be able to use this farce to his advantage, but when IDIOTS like Samper come out saying that UNASUR is confident due process was followed in this case and that LL can take advantage of further judicial instances, the rest of the world can see that all UNASUR does is parrot the official line of the thugs of Latin America.

    However, counting on a MUD dominated Assembly with the necessary votes to swing 3/5ths or 2/3rds is quite risky.

    Even though I advocate voting in these conditions, if the MUD turns out like for the last elections then those 3/5ths or 2/3rds ain't gonna happen, even if MUD candidates get the highest vote totals in general.

    The level of apathy/line standing/etc. in Venezuela is enormous. Lilian Tintori called for a protest this Saturday, and this will be the litmus test. If a huge turnout happens, then we have a chance. With a mediocre turnout I'm afraid it's going to take blood to wash this regime away.

    And that may be the worst possible outcome of all.

    RobertoN

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous11:42 PM

    Daniel,
    Great post, but I think you meant to say international condemnation, not commendation.

    Marido de gocha



    ReplyDelete
  3. Yeah, it was another stupid move by the Dictatorship. I thought Capo Cabello would order a "casa-por-prision" deal, with the option to incarcerate him again. That would have looked great Internationally, like there's a "democracy" and some "justice" in Kleptozuela, perfect for the next elections fraud (55% "victory" for the the MUD..).

    Not much he could do from home, anyway, with a set of tough restrictions, look at Ceballos and Ledezma: gone. Then, if things get tough, back to jail with any excuse, blame any unrest or guarimba in him and crucify him.

    They obvioulsy used this whole Circus as a Tour de Force, as propaganda for the Regime's totalitarian power. To instill fear on everyone, and to that extend they must have had some success. Look at what they did to the Afiuni judge, the entire Tribunal de Injusticia is now under control, same as the military after the Januray 2014 big shake-up. Terrorizados, comprados, todos corruptos.

    The only way now is even more repression, Estado de Excepcion General. Full-throttle military control, but you know how they do it, poco a poco, Boiling Frog style.

    Leopoldo is calling for peace, but he won't get out without some major revolt and blood in the streets. The Criminal Thugs in power are not going away with a kiss, not going away like a much more civilized Perez Jimenez did, saying "Yo no mato Cadetes".

    No, the shit is really gonna hit the fan once things get even worse in 2016 after the next laughable "elections". Caracazo style.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Roberto Carlos8:25 PM

      "The shit is really gonna hit the fan ...."
      Do you have any idea how many years we've been hearing "the shit is gonna hit the fan ... ".
      Of course one of these years someone will get it right. Maybe you are the one with the crystal ball we've all been waiting for ......

      Delete
  4. Anonymous2:29 PM

    http://lasarmasdecoronel.blogspot.ca/2015/09/venezuelan-embassy-in-nicaragua-uses.html



    http://lasarmasdecoronel.blogspot.ca/2015/09/venezuelan-embassy-in-nicaragua-uses.html




    Anónimo dijo...

    ...

    Repito que recuperar a Venezuela de los Chavistas es como tomar control de China en donde la traicion de un militar es el paredón o sea pena capital y muerte por fusilamiento...!

    Si se buscare alguna forma de hacer lo que los Chavistas hicieron para llegar al poder, solo ellos lo han logrado...! Y NO FUE POSIBLE SIN LA LIBERTAD POLÍTICA DE CHÁVEZ Y TOMA DEL PODER EN ELECCIONES de donde no hubo forma de retorno a la Democracia conocida...!

    Si alguien cree que un ejército invasor lograría tomar el poder, esto solo occurre con un problema grave de guerra civil...! Las probabilidades que esto occurra en Venezuela, es muy bajo...!

    No conozco otros ineptos mas grandes que los Venezolanos de la 4ta República...! A menos que sean de el Medio Oriente o Africa...!

    ...


    12 de septiembre de 2015, 11:48
    Anónimo Anónimo dijo...

    ...

    E ineptos reciben lo que se buscaron, y el poder internacional funciona en base a quien es menos inepto...!

    Gafotes...!

    ...

    12 de septiembre de 2015, 11:50

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  5. The rumor is that judge Barreiros just got a consul post in Chile. I am surprised, Chile is not a very safe place for a toad. Any truth to that story?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Waiting to see if rumors are true. But she would be extremely stupid, bordering on suicidal, if she accepted a public position anywhere.

      If she's not utterly retarded, that WHORE should disappear with Cabello's millions, get a new face and a new identity, somewhere in Eastern Europe or Thailand..

      I hope she is stupid, so we can follow her and put her filthy vagina in jail.

      Delete
  6. Okay so to me all the verdict shows is the dictatorship has no care of what the rest of the world thinks. Which should have been obvious by now. It may have hoped to spark protest to further crush any opposition. Does it matter what the world thinks? Like Cuba, North Korea or any other dictatorship that has complete fake elections and is obvious to the world, what does the world do about it? Absolutely nothing. Lets say come December 6 Maduro and clan hold an election and announce they got 100% of the vote. The rest of the world does nothing other then some tweets and some headlines. The only way to stop the gov't is to get people to rebel to the point where the military will not kill family and friends and turns on the dictatorship. To this point we know the only people with the balls to do that in Venezuela are the students and without the active support of their parents it will go no where. I have seen no sign that the middle age to older generations in Venezuela has the fight in them. They are like beaten dogs only taking more from their masters.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My guess/prediction is they will "fabricate" a 55% MUD "victory", which changes absolutely nothing, then continue to tighten the repression. You are right. They don't care anymore about public opinion, they have reached a point of no return, they are relying on the corrupt military and judiciary to stay in power.

      You seem to forget that much of the incredibly ignorant, uneducated, and highly corrupt or at least Complicit "pueblo" still loves Chavez. Over 60%. 28% still supports the Maduro regime. There are about 5 Million enchufados on the Chavista payroll.

      It will probably take more misery in 2016 and a bloody popular coup of some sorts, some lower military will have to rise with massive popular support, and the shit will hit the fan. That's when Leopoldo would be liberated and become president, if Kleptozuela gets lucky.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous9:50 PM

      Where did you get that 60% statistic from? Random words for effect?

      Delete
  7. The sentence helps the regime scare those opposition leaders who may wish to call for protests after they rig the National Assembly results. If there's no reaction to the sentence they will feel they have a freer hand to increase repression. It's the Castro playbook.

    To counter this move the obvious answer is to stop working. But we already know that Venezuelan workers who do work are busy bees.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Unfortunately, as long as Obama is in office, Venezuela is a side-show, or less, so far as American foreign policy is concerned. The U.S.A. has no need of oil from Venezuela, and Venezuela has no other product needed by the United States. Obama has all his attention focused on his "legacy", which eliminates minor annoyances, including foreign affaires

    ReplyDelete
  9. UK Foreign Office Minister of State speech to Human Rights Council Geneva 14th September 2015. Reference to LL "trial".
    https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/hugo-swires-address-to-the-human-rights-council-in-geneva

    ReplyDelete

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