Saturday, April 09, 2016

And they shall go to jail

I am not sure if people outside Venezuela truly measure how miserable it is to live here. However one thing is certain, the political situation makes it impossible for things to improve any time soon. Even more certain are the odds of things getting worse. The photo below is National Assembly chair Ramos Allup showing on TV the picture of the defense minister Padrino Lopez in bowed deference to Fidel. This is the clearest sign that the confrontation with the regime is reaching pitch fork level.

Why is this picture, which has widely circulated in the web months ago, back in front?

For this you need to come back to what this blog has gotten tired to repeat over and over: the regime cannot, CANNOT, leave office because this would mean that dozens if not hundreds of regime luminaries will find their way to trials and jail sentences, some as far as reaching The Hague tribunal (it is my opinion that, at the very least, Maduro's criminal actions against the well being of the Venezuelan population make him worthy of sitting at the accused bench of The Hague international court for human rights).

If you do not get this, or disagree with this, then you really have wasted your time reading this blog over the years.

The Games of Thrones played in real life here is as confusing as the fictional one, and probably many a political career would be demised as in the series, hopefully with not as much blood though I am now certain that some will be spilled..

To try to understand this let's start by the game played by the National Assembly. It's only weapon is legality, voting laws that bring answers to the plight of people. The process is long and tedious and exasperating not only to the radical minds inside the opposition but even to more rational spirits like a dear friend from overseas with whom I had a long talk yesterday.  It is indeed hard to keep cool in front of the onslaught suffered by the Assembly.

The regime indeed is annulling every law the Assembly passes. Even if the political cost for the regime may be high. For example we are waiting for the oncoming, announced, annulment of two laws. One is designed to allow quick and full ownership to those who got public housing in recent years. This is a No-No for the regime as that housing is sort of a grant that people can preserve as long as they support the regime. But denying such law goes against the human nature of even many hard core chavistas who, well, like any human being want their very own refuge...

More damaging still are the ridiculous pretension that the "bono alimentación" (kind of a food stamp system) for retired people is too expensive for the regime to accept. To which it was replied immediately that if there is money for weapons then there is money to help retirees living of a pension that is today at 40 USD a month (according to DICOM already in free fall since its creation weeks ago). The problem here is that the regime cannot permit under any circumstances to have the populace believe that they can get stuff outside of Chavez or his appointed heir. I suppose that in the regime mental construct the political price to screw the elderly is preferable to the political price of people starting to think that there is life after chavismo.

I pass on other laws annulled which are more abstract to the point made here. The objective of the regime is to annul the National Assembly. Since this cannot be done easily in front of the public opinion, and because the Assembly has two atomic bombs in reserve, the regime is proceeding to discuss nincompoopy proposals such as an amendment to bring down the Assembly term from 5 years to 60 days. Amen that such a constitutional amendement would have to be voted in a referendum (article 341) that the regime cannot win without massive and thus obvious fraud.

Or go the way of a mere coup and that is that.

Indeed the National Assembly has two bombs that are very dangerous to all, but more to the regime. One is the ability to call for a Constituent Assembly that if it proves effective could result in sweeping away all of the regime office holders (articles 348 and 349).

The other bomb is immediate: the regime is short on cash and the only way to borrow more dollars is to get a favorable vote from the Assembly (as a guarantee to the lender). This one will certainly give it IF AND ONLY IF the regime accounts for how the loan will be spent, monitored through a mechanism that will not be under regime control. Something that is totally unacceptable for an hyper corrupt regime. Will the regime pick bankruptcy? Coup? Negotiation?

I am going for coup even though no one will lend a dollar to the regime in such conditions. A coup would only result in utter misery for the people with the regime's hope to control the populace through control of food. A gamble that at least Maduro, Cabello and their close corrupt entourage are willing to take with the assumption that the army will help killing whatever needs to be killed through heavy repression.

Which brings us to the picture opening this entry.

I, for one, consider that Ramos Allup and the opposition have acted to the best of their abilities. There may be better ways to proceed but NO ONE so far as made the case that there is another strategy for the opposition to corner the regime until this one blows a fuse and close the Assembly, or collapses. Either way, many will have to go to jail...

The pressure over the regime has been gradual but continued and unfaltering. And at each time the regime has shown its dark nature. First the emergency economic decree was rejected but approved through yet another judicial coup. The the courts decided that the National Assembly did not have the right to call for hearings on public servants unless allowed by the regime. Then populists reforms are rejected at political cost for the regime. Then the amnesty Law is now under threat and if the regime rejects it it will result in a strongly welded opposition against the regime. On this last one we had the Defense Minister that chimed in as to his opinion that the Amnesty Law was bad. Not only this is not true, and not of his resort, but coming from someone who is linked to coup mongers that benefited in their time from an amnesty of sorts it is simply an indefensible position.

Ramos Allup thought that the time has come to put the armed forces in front of their duty. Showing the picture of an adoring minister of defense in front of a foreign potentate, publicly, on TV, simply questions the loyalty to the nation, to democracy, of the head of the armed forces.

The implications of this are so obvious that I will dispense the patient but smart reader from further explanations.

Only one comment to close this entry: Padrino Lopez today must regret not to have accepted the massive fraud that Cabello wanted to perpetrate on December 6. I will let you think on that too.


  1. Boludo Tejano11:00 PM

    Only one comment to close this entry: Padrino Lopez today must regret not to have accepted the massive fraud that Cabello wanted to perpetrate on December 6.

    Good point. I doubt that Padrino did so with the expectation that Ramos Allup would show that picture on TV.Did Padrino anticipate Maduro's total rejection of the Assembly? I doubt it. If Padrino did anticipate Maduros's total rejection of the Assembly, he should have been able to anticipate such a publicizing of the Padrino- Fidel photo. Conclusion: Padrino isn't a deep thinker, and is just along for the ride. Unfortunately for Padrino, someone who is just along for the ride may get thrown from the moving vehicle.

  2. "..the regime cannot, CANNOT, leave office because this would mean that dozens if not hundreds of regime luminaries will find their way to trials and jail sentences, some as far as reaching The Hague tribunal.."

    Some of them do indeed risk jail time, but many can hide in other countries, change their appearances, purchase new identities. The tougher thing to do is hide the stolen Millions. And risking to be poor again, without any power, is something Chavistoide "Socialists" fear almost as much as jail time. Losing comfortable early retirements on frozen bank accounts, confiscated houses, cars, etc. The entire nouveau-riche Chavistoide family then suffers, which is another powerful reason to hold on desperately to El Coroto. Or at least until they steal some more, and figure out where to hide it.

    1. And the funny part is they cannot hide it in regime friendly countries like Cuba, Russia, China, N Korea etc as all those govts will steal it as they do to their people.

  3. "Ramos Allup thought that the time has come to put the armed forces in front of their duty."

    The problem remains that the average "pueblo" people is rather ignorant in many ways, and particularly when it comes to the Constitution. Ask the average Joe in Barquisimeto or Barlovento or Petare if the know what "separation of powers" is, what are the 5 bigger powers, or at least 3 of them, why they have separate responsibilities, and what they are. 8-10 people you ask will not have the slightest clue. No idea that the Military should be independent, unaffiliated to any political party. Heck, many average Venezuelans still think that Cuba is a paradise, and that the Castros ain't that bad.. Some even suspect that the "economic wars" from the "imperio" or "burguesitos capitalistas" are real.

    Therefore, when Ramos Allup shows a picture like this, or some MUD deputy talks about a corrupt TSJ, CNE, Military, many people don't even understand what they are talking about, if they even hear about it, since many don't have computers and the media is still largely controlled.

    If "el pueblo" were vaguely familiar with the real constitution (before Chavez started messing with it) and knew how many times a day, year after year it is blatantly violated, perhaps they would be a little more pissed off, out in the streets. Popular Ignorance remains a big issue in Kleptozuela, but one no one dares to talk about, it's politically incorrect, since the "pueblo" is always so wise, 'alfabetizado', innocent,good, and very, very smart..

    1. Correct me if I am wrong but the poor ignorant are ruled over by local thugs who also would go to jail and lose all power if the regime was removed. The poor are not only ignorant but scared and controlled and this is where the difficulty lies. How to get them so fired up they take action?

    2. Yes, the vast majority of the populace still left in Vzla (after the 1.5 Million massive brain-drain of educated professionals), is largely clueless. Not only are they scared, and controlled, but Millions are also Enchufados (which no one likes to admit, also politically incorrect, but there's a World-Record with about 37 Chavista "Ministries employing 6-7 Million Pueblo People.. - You can bet most of them get some piece of the pie, if not flat-out stealing too, at various levels)

      They only get "fired-up" when thier own wallets are hurt. When they realize they are even worse-off than before. As we say in the USA.. it's the Economy, when you're stupid.". (my own version)

      That's when they start to react, as we've seen. Cuando se acaba el Guiso. When the Chavista Freebies run out, and street life gets rough. But apparently way too many "pueblo" people are still quite hooked-up with the criminal regime, aren't they? And they are way more ignorant, badly educated, and way more corrupt themselves than advertised anywhere. Corruption in Kleptozuela is endemic, a metastasized cancer, not just the "gobielno" or the top leaders. It's everywhere. As is massive ignorance.

  4. Milonga4:32 PM

    Unasur was created exactly for that reason: one giving a hand to the other, whilst all implicated in an enormous fraudulent corruption. If one falls, the others go doing domino style. It´s all too obvious. The good news is that they have to use their money to buy politicians now, their countries have gone all bankrupt. Can´t even imagine why a left-wing populist has any chances of being elected in Peru today. Why are people blind? Hannah Arendt has some good answers to that. What makes me skeptical as to a soon-to-be outcome. In the meantime, keep praying.

    1. PERUVIANS HAVE A SHORT MEMORY. They forget how Sendero ran amuck until Fujimori put a stop to that. Presently, Mendoza has re-ignited Senderoism, as many of her suporters are (supposedly ex) Sendermo. Her Chavista flavor, if elected, will follow-up on Humala's incredible corruption and put Peru in a tailspin that could create another Venezuela scenario. She intends on changing the Constitutiont to control what she calls "the Business Elite."

  5. Excellent post. I think Henry pulled that photo because the real struggle is with Maduro, Jaua, and a clique that's submissive to the Cuban dictatorship. You are partially colonized, too proud to face it. Henry thinks it's time to let that cat out of the bag.

  6. they shall go to jail no mercy

  7. Anonymous5:25 PM

    "More damaging still are the ridiculous pretension that the "bono alimentación" (kind of a food stamp system) for retired people is too expensive for the regime to accept....The problem here is that the regime cannot permit under any circumstances to have the populace believe that they can get stuff outside of Chavez or his appointed heir."

    Can someone explain briefly what this is about? Is the NA trying to approve some form of food stamp program for the elderly, and the regime is saying no because it costs too much? I'm guessing they are really saying no because any help given to anyone by the government must be done in a manner completely controlled by the regime so they can use it as a means to coerce and intimidate the beneficiaries....can anyone sketch out what's going on? Thanks

    1. You got that right. Freebies are coming through the regime or they are not.

  8. So now that Maduro and the Supreme court have essentially made it publicly clear (if they hadn't before) that the NA is powerless, and will be disbanded soon, what changes? I cannot see much changing as the if the people were too dumb to see that the regime could not be removed through the constitution before they will believe anything Maduro tells them. However, what does the opposition do now as the only way to remove the regime is through a public coup and seems people are too busy standing in lines to have time to toss the bums out.


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