Saturday, November 12, 2016

The triumphant failure of the dialogue in Venezuela

I suppose that there must be somewhere a grand design to all of this. That we are asked to swallow hard because it is all for the best. That we should trust the Vatican envoy when he is in ecstasy about the progress made. Or is it that he is claiming victory as he is on his way to the airport to leave once and for all?

So let's look at what I think is a dismal result for two weeks of expectations. I never hoped for much but this is, well, words fail me. Let's see if I can try to explain it by doing a positive and negative spin to the 5 "points of agreement" reached today.


1- ---acordaron trabajar de manera conjunta para combatir toda forma de sabotaje, boicot o agresión---Agreement to work together against all forms of {economical} sabotage, boycott or agression---

Positive spin: the regime will accept to take measures to change the economic system so that production will improve and we will have less scarcity.

Negative spin: unfuckingbelievable!!!!  The opposition buys the regime's theses that the economic crisis is not its fault but that of external factors sabitaging. In short the opposition accepts to share the blame of a crisis that is entirely of the regime's making.  And I cannot even charitably conceded that it is in the aim to silence the propaganda of the regime: just you wait!

2- ...superación de la situación de desacato de la Asamblea Nacional... overcoming the situation of disobedience of the National Assembly...

Positive spin: the regime acknowledges that there is an impasse and that something must be done. For this it will allow a repeat election of Amazonas representatives and name the 2 electoral board members whose term expires in a few days (2 out of 5 in the CNE)

Negative spin: first the language puts the blame on the National Assembly for refusing to follow the clearly unconstitutional dictates of the high court TSJ. That it was about the Amazonas representatives is not an excuse: it is inadmissible that they have been suspended 11 months ago by the TSJ and that this one has not declared whether these elections were valid or needed to be repeated.  Nowhere in the world such a delay would be acceptable.

Equally detestable, the opposition accepts that the regime will get one of the two new CNE members to be named when according to the National Assembly composition it should get none. The CNE should now be 2 to 3 in favor of the opposition and the regime will now retain a 3 to 2, and thus control of the electoral machinery with all the advantages that this implies including the electoral abuses that have been amply described.

3- Everybody agrees on defending Venezuela's right on a chunk of Guyana called Essequibo.

Positive spin: WTF?

Negative spin: WTF!

4- A "live together in peace agreement" has been approved.

Positive spin: Let's all sing kumbaya

Negative spin: wasn't there a constitution and rule of law to take care of that? OR is it now that we will live in peace because the regime decides it so? Where is the evidence of that intention?

5- Mumble jumble about organization of future conversations

Positive spin: we are still talking, nobody slammed the door.

Negative spin, the regime gains a few more precious weeks


I mean, this is bad.

In addition we learn that the next general sit down is December 6 which is an insult to the opposition as it is the one year anniversary of its landslide 2/3 majority which has been reduced to paltry negotiations so it can still breathe some. To add insult to injury the psychopath of Jorge Rodriguez is acting like the big bad Woolf enticing those in the opposition to see the positive results and thus to depose arms and join the dialogue.

What conclusions can we take, minimally?

First, the recall election is now dead. Even if December 6 were to produce the miracle of such an election there is no time to collet signatures and run it by January 10. RIP opposition main claim.

Second, the MUD is playing into the hands of the regime to accelerate its division. How can anyone think that Voluntad Popular will sit down with such paltry results? VP could possibly be talked into postponing Leopoldo Lopez release but in exchange for something big, at least a Recall Election BEFORE January 10.  Amen of other players like Maria Corina Machado.

Third, unless the MUD come up with something convincing like, now, we can only conclude it has started to cave in the regime and offer it a transition to its own measure. Why? Who? The army? The Vatican? Obama? Generic Fear?

One thing is certain, any good will at the OAS or Mercosur is likely to fade fast, if you ask me. By the time the opposition decides to hit the streets again all will have forgotten and all the work will need to be done again.

Only the regime is gaining so far. Prove me wrong.

10 comments:

  1. Oh boy sadly I completely agree!

    ReplyDelete
  2. kernel_panic9:25 PM

    Im gonna be short: the MUD is a PoS. Seriously, this is beyond ridiculous, this is a humilliation. Its completely unnaceptable that the governments rethoric is gladly accepted by the so called opposition when is blatantly true and obvious that this is all the governments fault.

    I didnt have in the dialogue. I never expected it would solve anything. But this... this is a freaking surrender of the "opposition".

    Daniel, gracias por todos los anos que has escrito y todo el esfuerzo personal que le has dedicado a este sitio. Te he leido desde 2008 si mal no recuerdo y has sido, y se que seras, una de las ventanas mas claras a la realidad venezolana. Te deseo lo mejor a ti y a tu S.O., espero que puedan salir adelante y que algun dia, mas pronto que tarde, puedan ver la luz.

    Definitivamente, esto confirma para mi que Venezuela es una causa perdida. Desde hace anos lo pienso, que es un pais que no vale la pena salvar porque es un pais que no quiere salvarse, sino que en el mejor de los casos, le resuelvan, como el pordiosero: "dame ahi".

    Los venezolanos que se han ido y los que nos iremos lo hacemos con dolor, pero al mismo tiempo, muchos (al menos yo y los que conozco) sabemos que sin importar cuanto luchemos por sacar este pais adelante, es un esfuerzo completamente infertil desde el principio. Es una realidad innegable, solo confirmada cuando la supuesta dirigencia opositora se rinde de una manera tan patetica.

    Si, se que MUD != oposicion. Se que hay muchas otras fuerzas y actores en juego, pero aun si se conforma una nueva fuerza, el dano ya esta hecho y es cuantioso, no tanto por lo que paso, sino porque demuestra la calidad moral de quienes "nos representan" y por transitividad, de una gran parte de la poblacion.

    El punto es que, es completamente transparente, pero igual es bonito que te lo digan: admiro la valentia y teson que has demostrado para sortear la realidad venezolana y el hecho que todavia estas aqui para contarlo.

    Una vez mas: gracias por todo tu trabajo, todo tu esfuerzo, toda tu dedicacion y mis mejores deseos, ahora y siempre.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The majority of the MUD have clearly been working for the regime for a long time. Hence they are not in jail or killed. With no one to lead the people it is over the regime is now permanent.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Please calm down. You do need to understand Bergoglio is communist, and likely a Castro ally. Maybe he's getting blackmailed by the Cubans, who have had a program to spy on potential high profile politicians, and gather dirt they can use at the appropriate time.

    The comuniqué was clearly intended to please the government, but it includes an item to show its surreal nature: the Esequibo comment. That signals the whole thing is a sham, the MUD will simply claim the dialogue has failed, that the priest read the government version and they will now proceed to declare that Maduro isn't acting president. I'm writing this without any communication links to the MUD, I'm just extrapolating from what I know. But if you think my logic holds water you should start hoarding food, water, and batteries just in case the thing hits the fan. I give it a 50 % chance Venezuela will be much more chaotic in 10 days.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Except that there is little to hoard even with cash in hand.....

      Delete
  5. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding point 2 but I read it as saying the supreme court is disrespecting the legislature & they will move to overcome that situation. If I'm right the MUD is gaining from that.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Re: #3
    You people need to get over it.
    Guyana won the ruling 100 years ago.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No.
      It was an arbitration where Venezuela had no part. An arrengement between colonial powers shall we say?

      Delete
  7. Charly5:18 AM

    That could be but didn't they say that patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel?

    ReplyDelete
  8. The monetary system needs to be suspended. The people need to come together and act. Go to work on the farms and transpiration and all vital services and the people will then receive all goods and services without any exchange of currency. The people are the power when they are unified.

    ReplyDelete

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