Friday, August 04, 2017

Venezuela is installing a constituent assembly

And I am not going to talk about that.  Except for one comment: that assembly is illegitimate because it was convoked using a REGRESSION of human and civil rights respective to the constitutional assembly convocation of 1999. That is, you cannot convoke a constitutional assembly under less rights than the constitution you want to replace. Period. Anything else is discussing what is the sex of angels when they live under a dictatorship.
Tintinophiles need no translation

This being said, today the question is what is the opposition going to do about running on regional elections in December. The decision must be, like, today because by Monday it will not be possible to register candidates anymore (note that chavismo has not registered anyone but they usually wait to the last minute anyway).

The problem is that electoral board CNE has been shown to commit a major fraud last Sunday, a fraud that could cover up to 50% of the votes allegedly cast.

The problem is that the election could be suspended at any time by the constitutional assembly.

The problem is that the elected governors can be erased at will by the constitutional assembly which has been elected under no boundaries for its action.

The confusion is that there is no right or wrong decision.

The embarrassment is that the opposition alliance MUD was caught unprepared.

Yes, that is right, for its tough talk the MUD has shown once again that there was no plan B, and the people are MORE THAN justified in feeling pissed off at the MUD.

It is, for me inconceivable that the MUD assumed that the constitutional assembly elections would not take place ever. I admit that I was among those that thought that at the last minute the regime would not carry through the coup. But once it was clear that the regime was divided and that a faction wanted the election in order to secure control of the regime it was becoming certain that the election would take place. And it did, the humongous fraud being committed by the losing side inside the regime to pad results and get a majority.  And the MUD did not preview that?  The MUD never discussed that the following week of the vote they would have to announce governor candidates?

I am in shock!  This is the true scandal, not whether the MUD should run as casual observers would think.

So this is the dramatic choice the MUD faces because they never discussed the issue before, or at least never reached an agreement.

They run, in spite of a CNE biased to the point of major electoral fraud. Though if they run they will have witnesses at the voting stations and thus there will be less fraud, the opposition assured to have enough vote to compensate for the fraud. There is yet a problem in that scenario: if the regime thinks that it will lose badly at any time it can suspend the election through a constitutional assembly fiat. So what else would be new?

The second option is that they do not run and thus the regime puts its candidates, wins everything and commits fraud once again to prove that all of "el pueblo" is back in the regime's fold.

A true cornelian dilemma.

Damned if you do (Maria Corina Machado) damned if you don't (Ramos Allup). Or the other way, I can't tell.

I am not going to discuss details of the pro and con, just blurt it out.

The opposition should field all sorts of candidates on the condition that they will sign to withdraw their name once a primary or a consensus candidates that is not them has been picked. That is, all parties that want should register names while the MUD decides a way to pick the unity name. There is no choice.

More importantly the MUD needs to make a serious overall in its decision making system. Otherwise people like me are just going to stop paying attention. We amy decide to stay home or go out and start the civil war on our own. The lack of coherence inside the MUD being the culprit.  I would like to point out that on March 21 I was going as far as saying that maybe it is time for the MUD to split as the too divergent interests inside are killing it.  Had we divided then....


  1. Milonga8:23 PM

    We all know this is what Maduro was aiming at: divide and triumph! In spite of errors, it´s not time to fall into Maduro´s trap. And I won't say more because I'm sick after I just watched the installment of the ANC and heard the 'conciliatory' speech made by its new president. Delcy Rodriguez is just the perfect one to talk of peace and dialogue. She distills hatred and vindictiveness. Have to get over that. My embrace and love and ¿hope?

  2. Time for armed rebellion. Hang the bastards from lampposts.

  3. Anonymous9:58 PM

    I have been following and posting on this site for many years now, and been saying forever the only way to stop the dictatorship that happened long ago, not with this Assembly was through Venezuelans taking arms. Any other plan is an absolute waste. The opposition is completely useless, if you cannot infiltrate the brain trust of a money hungery regime as this your not even trying. How stupid are people to now only say that a dictator is put in place via the constitutional assembly. It was way back when they trampled all over the constitution with no repercussion. The games were over then all that is left since then is armed rebellion which maybe 1% of the populous has the stomach for, hence it is over. Stop bitching and whining and either move or live with whats there as now that's your only options. All is great reading and debate but the regime is here to stay until the people rebel or the USA honestly decides it wants it removed. Lets not kid our selves, the powerful countries in this world which right now are China, Russia and USA are funding all the havoc around the world and justifying it against each other, creating huge opportunities for a select few. Whether Russia and China backing N Korea and Venezuela, or Russia backing Cuba or USA starting Bin Ladin's terrorist cell to reek havoc on Russia in the Middle East it is all a game to them as the people do not really matter.

    1. Anonymous10:45 PM

      There are no arms! They have been confiscating them for years!

    2. Getting arms is not difficult if there is a will when most coutries in the world who supply them all over can bring them to Venezuelas borders or inside. However, taking up arms can be just people with anything they can grab going after the government in full force of millions. Yes 10s of thousands may die but 100s of thousands will anyways. Sanctions certainly wont work as the govt is happy to starve the populous as with Cuba and have someone to blame. Either the people take back the cou try at the risk of mass loss of life or stop protesting and live best you can with a terrible future as no other way will the govt leave. There is no real elections anymore.

  4. get the arms in colombia

  5. It has been a long time since I was forced to do so. There was an anonymous (imagine that) that rehashed an issue to which I had replied. So I put him/her on spam.

  6. Tom in Oklahoma1:48 AM

    As a poster noted above, the public was disarmed years ago as always almost always happens when a leftist "progressive" government takes control of a country. This is an essential part of their long range plans. A disarmed public cannot hope to win an armed revolt against the government. The left in USA has been trying for years to implement "gun control" which if implemented would leave only the criminals with firearms. The average law abiding citizen would have little or no means of protecting himself from the common criminals or a malevolant government.Maduro will be closing the borders tightly very soon and the ones that are unable to leave soon will probably be trapped there. Ask the average Cuban if they are free to leave anytime they choose.

  7. I can only surmise that Maduro is planning to regain his lost popularity with one final act stipping all private goods from the middle classes to give away to the lower. Otherwise, what else can the ANC give him that he does not already have...

    1. He already had that and he no longer cares about popularity. Was important only to hijack democracy. Wont give anything away now.

  8. Charly4:37 PM

    Just got the communique of the French Government, courtesy of the Ambassador in Caracas. So wishy washy it would have been preferable to publish nothing at all.

  9. Anonymous4:50 PM

    Guerrilla or asymmetric warfare is the only strategy left. Sabotage, targeting infrastructure, obviously trying to avoid civilian casualties. I'm sure the CIA could find a way of supplying it. The big question is, are people ready to step up? Is the population sufficiently motivated to produce an insurrectionary army on the level - so ironic! - of FARC or Shining Path? The answer to this question really will say everything about the true will of the Venezuelan people.

    1. What they need to do in Venezuela is peaceful resistance like barricading PDVSA & SENIAT, not paying taxes & other govt fees. Ostracize socialists & their families socially & economically. Black markets & alternative currencies. Better late than never.

    2. Darren that is the exact remedy that got them to where they are. Sure your bot on the regimes team?

    3. Ash, no all the MUD did was march & put a leash on the resistance. Maybe you need some remedial reading classes or maybe you're thinking of the Venezuelan opposition on Mars 'cuz the one on Earth sure didn't do any of the things I mentioned.

  10. Anonymous....really....its over...completely.
    The Cubans have total control..and thousands of brainwashed ingnorants to carry out their orders......can you imagine the party they are having in Habana!!!...the must be t be biggest relief for them.
    The upside to this....Correa kirthner out...lula out...dilma there is no regional support...all they can hope for is the FARC take over Columbia the same way..Santos is a fool
    ..where is the fucking conviction of these people!?!?!?.....where are the real men and women of latin Amerrica hiding....oh yean....Italy...spain...portugal..USA..

    1. The sad part is the young have shown they are willing to fight, its the older generations who seem more tgen happy to let their children die to lack of medicine, food and crime. Dare they risk their lives that have been near full as they sit on their hands and root for the young. If they all stand up at once at march with pitch forks if they have to by the millions the army of cowards will kill a few thousand then run for the hills.

    2. "...what country can preserve it's liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms...What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants."

      --Thomas Jefferson

  11. I hate to say it but if Venezuela doesn't get out from under the dictatorship soon it will go the way of socialist Somalia.

  12. Daniel, after so many years, where have the oligarchs and political opposition brought you? No place.

    When the opposition decided to boycott the Assembly, it was all over for you.

    Now you prattle on about taking up arms? Bullshit. You think Uribe and his rightwing deathsquads are going to save you?

    If Venezuela were a dictatorship, you wouldn't be posting openly about killing people and overthrowing the government.

    Time to grow up and organize some honest political opposition that isn't tied to deathsquads or gusanos.

    1. Boludo Tejano7:18 PM

      I am reminded of our old friend Steve Hunt, a.k.a. Slave Revolt.

    2. Steve Hunt..... the good old times when silly leftists defended the revolution that poor Daniel was condemning to failure... There was another american kid that kept changing his ID all the time too. He was in Merida for a while. Wonder if he is still in Venezuela standing in line for food.

    3. Boludo Tejano11:36 PM

      Merida- sounds like Chris Carlson, who at one time had a Gringo in Venezuela website. He also wrote for VenezuelaAnalysis,but that money must have run out- surprisingly. I believe one blog name Chris used was Clueless in Caracas. Last time I looked, Chris Carlson was a grad student at CCNY. A more appropriate place in New York for him might have been the New School, which is Tibisay Lucena's alma mater. Sarc, sarc.

  13. Anonymous3:34 AM

    No the death squads will be left wing this time. Just shows how meaningless those dumb terms are.

  14. Tom in Oklahoma4:59 AM

    SwampNigger- Apparently you are unable to distinguish between content posted by Daniel and the content posted by readers. Daniel has not called for the taking up of arms nor has he called for killing anyone at all. It is evident by your posting that you are not here to contribute to the conversation but are merely trolling the site. Your comments are less than meaningless to the people who do not suckle at the tit of Maduro.


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