Mexico, Obrador, Bolivia and yet a new constitution

I take a break from futbol and Venezuela to discuss two important events that are held today.

Mexico moves to the future

I am not one of those that are particularly sanguine about the future of Mexico: no matter who of Calderon or Obrador wins, it will be good for Mexico. The party that held Mexico for 70 years in what was considered “the perfect dictatorship”, something that Chavez would love to emulate if he had the brains and compassion for it, will be done with by arriving in a perhaps distant third.

No matter what a new Mexico of democracy will come.

If Calderon wins, the center right will prove that it was not an accident, that Mexico is open to the future and to the necessary changes if it wants to stop its constant hemorrhage of its brightest workers to El Norte. The challenge of Calderon and the future of Mexico is that the prosperity of recent years reaches more Mexicans.


If Obrador wins, as a pure product of the old PRI, he will not be able to resist deal making and will become someone like Lula, perhaps bring necessary changes to Mexico and modernity anyway. The challenge of Obrador and the future of Mexico will be to resist the siren songs of populism and keep in mind that the best social programs are jobs and more jobs, unless he wants to see a stampede to El Norte.

No matter what in Mexico there is no nonsense talk of new constitutions, brave new worlds, just RealPolitic adapted to the coming times but from two different angles. I would prefer Calderon to win just on the idea that he will be better suited at containing Chavez. But I doubt very much that Obrador will be a Chavez pushover. Obrador will lead a proud and progressive country and soon enough he will send Chavez packing with his nonsense: Mexico does not need Venezuela at all. While would Obrador put up with Chavez bad manners?

Bolivia keeps sinking into irrelevance

When Morales was elected I was hoping that he would not be the pawn of Chavez. I was proven wrong. Not only wrong, but even more wrong than my worst pessimistic moments tried to suggest to me. Now Bolivia is holding elections for a constituent assembly whose only object is to destroy the institutions of a state already much weaker than Venezuela, to establish a one party rule, perhaps based on a future racial nightmare. The same scenario of Venezuela: in the name of the poor, a small group of people take charge of the country in the hope of never letting go again. The sole hope is that the local opposition is far from having given up the way the Venezuelan did as early as April 1999. A good result for the opposition in Santa Cruz, Tarija and couple of smaller problems could either stop Morales stupid ambitions and perhaps avert civil war. Or it might accelerate the decomposition of the country. If Santa Cruz decides to bail out of Bolivia I doubt very much that Brazil will take La Paz side over Santa Cruz.

The hand of Chavez is everywhere in that Bolivian campaign, be it from Chavez looking ridicule in Bolivian garb, to PDVSA, the Venezuela state monopoly, paying for a large part of Morales referendum campaign (and the World Cup transmission in yet another futbol crazed country. Even London’s Guardian cannot fail to observe such heavy handed Venezuelan intervention.

Thus we are seeing a country surrendering its uniqueness to some messianic leader again. Except that Bolivia does not have Venezuelan oil to soothe things some, and Venezuelan oil will not be enough to spread around to Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua and elsewhere. I fear for a few bad endings down the road.

PS: I understand that Mexico has manual voting and counting. And I bet that the result will come speedily enough. No matter what happens in Mexico the Venezuelan electoral system would look bad again. This will be the last opportunity this year for the Venezuelan opposition to rub the CNE nose in its treachery by showing how it is done well and without controversy elsewhere.