Saturday, December 10, 2011

A preview of October 7, 2012 (or how fascism does not lose elections)

This was the entrance tonight of the Aula Magna, the major auditorium of the Central University of Venezuela, UCV, a World Heritage site of the UNESCO since 2000 (and for how long now?):

In this picture the pro Chavez students that got trashed in the student body election of today (apparently more than 10 to 1), did not like it, attacked with gunshots and cocktail Molotov to try to seize the ballots and only managed to destroy the voting and counting machines.  We are told that ballots are safe and will be counted tomorrow when the situation goes back to "normal".  We can anticipate chavismo refusing to recognize the result on any stupid detail that they created themselves tonight in the battle field.

Of course, the "students" that protested and set fire did so with the adequate head gear, not for protection from the flames but to hide their very "democratic" identity.  We call that style of "student" encapuchados (the current vice president of Venezuela, Jaua, used to be a noted encapuchado in his student days).

Naked fascism, mask or no mask.

The background is very simple:

No matter how hard chavismo has tried, it has not been able to get the upper hand of the UCV.  Even though its professorial section used to vote for the left in its regular election, it has been voting consistently, and with wider margins, against the candidates of the regime who now do not even reach a third fo the vote.

Same thing in the student body where pro Chavez lists are trashed by increasing margins, even when the non chavista students run on separate lists (after all, the students have very specific ideas more or less to the left but all democratic contrary to the increasing fascism on the other side).

The regime has tried other means of pressure to force the surrender of the UCV, from where after all come a large fraction of the new apparatchiks that really, really would love to go back as the masters in the UCV when they get back there at some point (not to mention that they would gladly offer the UCV as a trophy to Chavez, and a validation of their submission to the regime).  these means of pressure have included budget freezes for now several years n spite of a galloping inflation (most research is now stopped at the UCV), tricks to try to make service workers votes equal to those of professors in deciding what the curriculum should be, etc, etc...  All still mostly contained because the constitution of 1999 guarantees the functional autonomy of certain campus in Venezuela.

Kevin and Hugo
As a consequence the academic level of the UCV has suffered, the World Heritage university has degraded because the regime does not give the support it should be, pleased to destroy anything that stands in the way of Chavez no matter what.

What triggered the assault tonight has been brewing for a few weeks now.  A certain chavista student, Kevin Avila, was filmed attacking the rectors of the university during a formal function in campus to commemorate, if memory serves me well, an anniversary of it being declared Worl Heritage.  The attack included bodily threats to the rectors, tossing of food around, copious amount of insults, etc...  The UCV decided to start an expulsion sanction of one year but the Venezuelan high court promptly stopped that once Chavez himself held high the hand of Avila as a hero.

And so they went to elections that they lost. Which did not stop Avila tonight to promptly declare to the state radio, RNV, that the attack was from a rival opposition list that was defeated.  Forgetting of course to mention that his own list was duly trashed, arguing that the school were he was running, the most "chavista" one in the UCV, was rumored to be also an anti Chavez major electoral upset.  which by itself would explain the pro Chavez attackers since they were about to lose the last bastion they held, the school of Social Work, an obvious magnet for pro Chavez students that hope to get a job in public administration....  Such a repudiation of Kevin Avila after Chavez himself promoted him could not possibly be accepted, you must understand.


Now we have a clear advance on how will chavismo react in October 2012 if it loses the general election.

Now we have the first clear, unequivocal  demonstration that chavismo has grown beyond communism into a bona fide fascism.  True communists manage better such situations, knowing well in advance that they are going to lose and thus taking precautions to stop the elections of make the necessary previous arrangements not to lose.  Fascists apparently tend to believe that they may win and thus need to resort to such acts of violence.  Since there were already bombs thrown today in Campus to try to stop elections we must conclude that chavismo is now divided into a commie group and a facho group.  Though the end result is basically the same: totalitarian abuse.

I think that it is time to make people take notice, here, in Venezuela but also outside of the country, starting by informing the local embassies as to what is brewing.

We must also note that media was very slow, even reluctant to cover the events.  Self censorship is alive and well.  One year ago Globovision would have interrupted its normal programming to report live.  Tonight Patricia Velazquez movie presentation was not interrupted, the host satisfying themselves with occasional verbal updates.


  1. Island Canuck10:46 AM

    Daniel, you hit the nail on the head.

    A definite prelude to October, 2012.

    According to a report in El Universal the Chavistas only received about 500 votes out of 8250 total votes. a dismal 6% of the total vote.

    A revolution without the students is not a revolution.

  2. Good analysis but there is one inaccurate thing: comunicación social is not a magnet for Chavistas because of some public office alone. It has always, also decades ago, been a magnet for the extreme left because its standards are so low and the professional encapuchados could pass off more easily as "students" while doing nothing but listening to Alí Primera and talking. The escuela de Comunicación Social is also very conveniently close to the entry, where they could throw molotov at the policemen and try to venture outside to burn down some lorry and go back protected by the campus-not-for-cops policy.

  3. That's chorocracy at work.

  4. What I think it is important about this, in case is lost on the imbeciles who think that playing nice to chavistas and not being confrontational will get them anywhere other than to more repression, is that we are witnessing the brewing, as you rightly say, of an open, all out confrontation. No more posturing, is either their way, or absolute chaos. That's the take away message.

    The other interesting thing, lost in your post but of crucial importance for readers outside Venezuela, is that chavismo is yet to win the first election in Venezuelan universities, were Smartmatic machines or CNE don't count. That is to say, where the vote is manual, as it has always been in universities, chavismo has not won 1 election since 1998...

  5. Charly4:10 PM

    Confrontation? What confrontation? Chavismo has all the delinquents, the muscle, the weapons, the milicia, the armed forces, the corrupt judges, the oil money. This is not the start of a confrontation, just the continuation of a takeover just like the brown shirts did it some 80-90 years ago.

  6. Anonymous6:01 PM


    These were just university students with minimal access to weapons and such. How will these government thugs react when they also see that they are doomed? They will go to any lengths possible to hold on. Its a question now of how the oppo can defend the results. I really hope that there will be some kind of plan in place.

  7. Alek

    Inasmuch as you have a point we cannot blame it all on Smartmatic et al. After all as they say in the US, "guns do not kill people, people kill people".

    Smartmatic is an agent of chavismo but it will go only as far as chavismo wants it to go. Smartmatic cannot be used as an excuse for a weak opposition that too often is too willing to wait and see. The day that we have witnesses in all tables and that we count ballots in half of the voting centers truly chosen at random samrtmatic will be minor player.

    That is why last night is such a scary image for next October: chavismo is moving beyond Smartmatic and "civilized" ways to cheat. Knowing it may lose, even with the help of Smartmatic, well, they are doing what it takes to stay in office. Which of the 6 will be willing to stand up and risk his skin for the country? And more importantly, will they be alone in the front once again or this time around will we follow our elected candidate? Those are the things that we should start debating and preparing for as of now.

  8. Several of the candidates have shown their metal in standing up to the government: MCM, LL and Arria.

    We know that the government will take whatever actions necessary to stay in power -The question is how to plan for it.If the candidates openly do this they will be immediately disqualified or jailed for being golpistas'- so the preparations have to be made undetected.The fact that the people have the power to turn the thing around should made open and clear, but to prepare for the path taken when Chavez steals the votes should be hidden.People need faith to go forward into a certain unknown territory , that involves risk.There is nothing free ,and nothing that is not risky.

    LL's ad was kind of childish( the one jumping obstacles)but the idea behind it is correct and applies to ALL the candidates.

    Fascism is inherent in any society( a certain percentage of people will be paranoid and want to over- control things anywhere).... pretending to play by the rules by breaking them to their convenience with the premise that they are ridding themselves of great evil....

    It's funny that as soon as the foreign leaders were out the door, Chavez started to act up.Chavez must have interpreted the results of CELAC as an endorsement for him as a leader...could it be that the other presidents don't mind having a fascist Venezuela as long as the checks keep coming?

  9. CharlesC7:03 PM

    "...Chavez started to act up."
    The rain did not stop him?
    When Chavez speaks everyone should
    keep repeating "Mr. Chavez, we have tried that and that did not work. It is unrealistic."Every time, everywhere.
    No more bonds! No more bonds!
    No more big deals with/for foreign countries benefit.

  10. Anonymous7:39 PM


    I agree with you completely. The oppo can't show its hand. In my opinion this election is already won. The country wants and is ready for a change. But its important that they start planning on the same kind of reaction as we saw last night. Hope for best...but plan for worst!

  11. I wrote about this on Miguel's blog: It's "democracy" at work.. the lack of education at an obvious display again.. with a minimum of education, who's gonna buy Chavez's crap? Not even UCV students..

  12. Anonymous11:29 PM

    @ firepigette

    chavez doesnt need to steal votes, in fact it will be the opposite, chavez will add votes, just enough (to both sides) to make a win for him

    dont be surprised to see a total number of voters equal or over 16 million, and bear in mind that last elections, there were less than 12 million, it'll be just like on 2009 referendum, under 12 million voters by 2008 regional elections then BOOM 16 million for the referendum and then boomback to 12 million voters for 2010 AN elections.

    I agree with alek's argument that the real fraud is on the REP, I have always suspected it, but the more I think about it, the more I think that's the explanation :P

  13. Anonymous12:51 AM

    Que desgraciados, matapatrias, mataculturas, buenosparanadas, espero que en 2012 la gente este bien unida y botemos esa chusma.
    La Maga Lee

  14. Like a scene straight out of Godwin's "The Fear"...

  15. You know, it is pretty amazing that they can get the courts, they can get the Asamblea, they can get the CNE, they can get the media, they can get basically everything, but they still can't get the UCV.

    And they can't stand it. Sore losers.

    In sports, I can't abide rooting for anyone who has a similar reaction when they lose. When you can't lose gracefully, you can't win gracefully. That speaks volumes about how these people would run things at the UCV if they were in charge.


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